Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Thursday, Jul 29, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Democratic Governors Association is spending about $500,000 a week on TV ads these days for Gov. Pat Quinn, which is way more than the $200,000 a week being spent by Bill Brady’s campaign. But the Quinn ads may not be working yet, according to Rasmussen’s latest poll, which has Brady increasing his margin to seven points, up from three earlier this month. Numbers in brackets are results from the pollster on July 7, June 7, April 28, April 5 and March 8…

Brady: 44% [43%, 47% 45%, 45%, 47%]
Quinn: 37% [40%, 36% 38%, 38%, 37%]
Some Other Candidate 11% [9%, 8% 5%, 7%, 6%]
Not sure 9% [8%, 10% 11%, 10%, 9%]

* From the pollster…

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Illinois voters approve of the job [Quinn] is doing as governor, down seven points from earlier this month, while 61% disapprove.

The Republican holds a 13-point lead among men, but women are evenly divided between the candidates. Brady picks up support from 88% of Republicans, while Quinn is supported by only 61% of those in his party. Brady has a modest lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

They’re tied with women again? Not good for Quinn, especially since the DGA is so heavily targeting women in their TV ads.

Back to the pollster…

Quinn is viewed Very Favorably by seven percent (7%) and Very Unfavorably by 32%.

Brady’s ratings are 15% Very Favorable, 15% Very Unfavorable.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

* Other results, with July 6th results in brackets for Quinn…

* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

37% Strongly approve
18% Somewhat approve
7% Somewhat disapprove
36% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure

* How would you rate the job Pat Quinn has been doing as Governor… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

7% Strongly approve [10%]
30% Somewhat approve [34%]
27% Somewhat disapprove [23%]
34% Strongly disapprove [31%]
2% Not sure [3%]

Approval is down, disapproval is up. Not good.

* Methodology…

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on July 26, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

* Rasmussen’s job approval chart for Quinn, which hasn’t been updated to include the latest poll…

* TPM’s poll tracker…

* Thoughts?

67 Comments

Rasmussen: Giannoulias 43, Kirk 41

Wednesday, Jul 28, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rasmussen’s latest poll shows that Democrat Alexi Giannoulias continues to trend slightly upwards, while Republican Mark Kirk has stopped slipping, at least for now. Previous results from Rasmussen’s polls conducted July 7, June 7, April 28, April 5, March 8 and February 3 are in brackets…

Kirk: 41 [39%, 42% 46%, 41%, 41%, 46%]

Giannoulias: 43 [40%, 39% 38%, 37%, 44%, 40%]

Other: 6 [9%, 7% 5%, 8%, 5%, 4%]

Unsure: 10 [12%, 12% 12%. 13%, 10%, 10%]

From the pollster…

Kirk carries 74% of conservative voters in the state, while 79% of liberals support Giannoulias. Moderates favor the Democrat by a 47% to 35% margin.

Forty-four percent (44%) say Kirk’s views are in the mainstream, but 30% say they are extreme. Forty-two percent (42%) view Giannoulias in the mainstream, while 33% say he’s extreme.

Seven percent (7%) of Illinois voters hold a Very Favorable opinion of Giannoulias, while 25% view him Very Unfavorably.

Kirk is viewed Very Favorably by 10% and Very Unfavorably by 14%.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Kirk holds a modest lead among male voters, and Giannoulias has a similar lead among women. Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer the Republican by nearly 20 points.

That big lead among independents is crucial and means that Kirk has a very good shot at winning this one, despite the toplines. Illinois has lots more Democrats than Republicans, but they’re not a firm majority. Independents are a must-get. But moderates are also very important, and Giannoulias’ lead is important there.

* More results…

* Is Mark Kirk more ethical, less ethical, or about as ethical as most politicians?

10% More ethical
21% Less ethical
50% About as ethical
19% Not sure

* Is Alexi Giannoulias more ethical, less ethical or about as ethical as most politicians?

8% More ethical
31% Less ethical
44% About as ethical
17% Not sure

* Is Rod Blagojevich more ethical, less ethical, or about as ethical as most politicians?

2% More ethical
59% Less ethical
32% About as ethical
7% Not sure

Almost half say Giannoulias is less ethical than most politicos or aren’t sure. The Kirk camp will do its best to push that up as high as possible with the “mob banker” stuff. Whether it’ll work this year is another story, however.

And, let’s all hope that none of that crazy 2 percent who think Rod Blagojevich is more ethical than most is sitting on the jury.

* More results…

* Would it be more accurate to describe Mark Kirk’s views as mainstream or extreme?

44% Mainstream
30% Extreme
27% Not sure

* Would it be more accurate to describe Alexi Giannoulias’s views as mainstream or extreme?

42% Mainstream
33% Extreme
25% Not sure

* Methodology…

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on July 26, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

* TPM’s poll-tracker…

Thoughts?

* Related…

* Sweet: Illinois Special Senate election Nov. 2 could trigger confusion, fund-raising boom

* Quinn: Dual U.S. Senate election won’t be pricey

* Obama Senate seat special election could make big waves

* Tribune: Burris for Senate?

* Giannoulias Uses DISCLOSE Act to Push for Senate Rules Reform

* Plouffe gearing up to get Giannoulias elected

* Big Guns Jump On Board Giannoulias Campaign

* Some Democrats wary as Obama ramps up fundraising

* Obama hitting the campaign trail in August

* Senate name calling escalates

* Kirk and Giannoulias, You’re no Lincoln and Douglas

* Kirk proposes 7 debates, forums in Senate race

* Who’d You Rather? Governor Santa, or Governor Scrooge?

39 Comments

Daley has spent over $300K on polling in the past year

Wednesday, Jul 21, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* After the Tribune released its polling showing that only 31 percent would like to see him reelected, Mayor Daley tried to brush off the results…

“Everybody’s worried about polls in the United States, and all politicians worry about polls — they should worry about their actions,” he said, speaking at a march against violence in Woodlawn. “I do this six days a week — I’m passionate about it — you have to be passionate about your job, and there’s ups and downs.”

Yes, “everybody’s worried about polls” including Daley. I checked hizzoner’s recent campaign disclosure reports and found that he has spent $308,000 since June of last year on his pollster, Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research Inc.

Daley’s campaign cut a $63,000 check to his pollster on March 5th, then another $91,692.33 check on April 2nd. Maybe he didn’t get the results he wanted the first time around.

Last August 19th, the campaign paid its pollster $91,250.24. On June 26th of last year, Daley spent $63,000.00 on the pollster.

That far from an election, politicians will use polling and focus groups to hone their messages. Obviously, it isn’t working. Then again, considering the city’s multitude of problems, mere pollster-inspired spin isn’t quite enough to do the trick.

* Walter Jacobson’s latest report reveals that Daley isn’t encouraged at all by that polling…

The only way to know if he is or isn’t, is to know one of three people: the mayor himself, his wife Maggie or his brother Bill, who is the only person in politics who is in on every move the mayor makes.

Bill’s been saying in public that he doesn’t know what his brother’s planning to do. In private, he’s been saying the mayor intends not to run again - because he wants more time to spend with Maggie, and the job isn’t fun anymore.

Not enough money in the budget, and too much hostility in the press.

Bill Daley saying that Rich Daley is thinking ‘no’ is a big shift in the gusty winds of Chicago politics, and a big story to begin to tell.

* Meanwhile, the person responsible for screwing up the CTA more than anyone else is resigning from his latest Daley job…

Frank Kruesi, one of Mayor Richard Daley’s longest-serving advisors, has resigned as Chicago’s top lobbyist in Washington, D.C.

The former president of the Chicago Transit Authority, who served as assistant secretary of policy at the Department of Transportation during the Clinton administration, has been a key adviser to the mayor over most of the last three decades, starting when Mr. Daley was Cook County state’s attorney.

Kruesi confirmed his resignation, saying he’s leaving at the end of the month.

* Campaign roundup…

* Campaign cash reports rolling in: Senate Majority Leader John Cullerton (D-Chicago) reported having $3.5 million in his Senate Democratic Victory Fund to help candidates around the state. Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno (R-Lemont) reported her campaign fund has $709,000 in cash after raising $229,000 in the first six months. House Speaker Michael Madigan’s own campaign warchest, Friends of Michael Madigan, collected $788,587, spent $609,071 and had $1,968,238 in the kitty on June 30. The Democratic Party of Illinois, which the Chicago Democrat chairs, collected $149,128, spent $179,618 and had nearly $1.5 million on hand.

* Giannoulias has ethics plan; GOP fires back

* New York Mayor Bloomberg hosted Mark Kirk Illinois Senate fund-raiser Monday

* Schock outraises opponents by sixfold

* Former nun sees God’s hand in 35th House District race

* Campaign cash: Morthland leads Ahern

* 92nd, 91st districts gear up for tough fights

* Judge to rule soon on Crenshaw candidacy

* Preckwinkle surges ahead in fund-raising

16 Comments

« NEWER POSTS