Poll: Pritzker up by 19, Quinn leads by 8
Monday, Mar 12, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I told subscribers about the new Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll on Friday evening. Here it is, with results ranging from best to worst…
* If the Democratic Primary Election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote?
JB Pritzker 35%
Chris Kennedy 16%
Daniel Biss 15%
Bob Daiber 1%
Tio Hardiman <1%
Robert Marshall <1%
Undecided 31%
* If the Democratic Primary Election for Attorney General were held today, for whom would you vote?
Pat Quinn 23%
Kwame Raoul 15%
Nancy Rotering 6%
Sharon Fairly 3.5%
Renato Mariotti 3%
Jesse Ruiz 3%
Scott Drury 2.5%
Aaron Goldstein 2%
Undecided 43%
Numbers have been rounded by me. I did a long analysis for subscribers the other day, but notice how Kennedy’s recent “surge” has been reversed, presumably by Pritzker’s U of I TV ad. Tapping the brakes apparently worked for now.
Also it’s impossible not to notice that the “undecided” category is in second place in the governor’s race despite $60 million in spending by JB Pritzker. The category has a huge “lead” in the AG’s race, where the frontrunner is not beloved and the others are not very well known. Lots and lots of unknowns are still out there.
The poll of 1,029 likely voters was conducted March 7-9. 512 of the responses came from mobile phone users and the margin of error was ±3.06 percent.
* The crosstabs are here. Before we go on, let’s take a quick look at a Tribune story about the Downstate vote…
Christopher Mooney, a political scientist at the University of Illinois’ Institute of Government and Public Affairs, said there is a risk factor for candidates who fail to devote time and resources Downstate in favor of the more heavily populated city and suburbs. […]
By the numbers, the ballots cast in the 96 counties outside Chicago and the suburban collar counties make up a small percentage of the Democratic primary vote. Only 23 percent of the nearly 2.1 million ballots cast in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary came from Downstate.
Numbers alone can be misleading, however, particularly in a six-candidate contest where the winner only needs the most votes, not a majority. […]
Pritzker has had the money to air TV ads statewide for months, and his deep pockets already have assisted local county organizations with contributions. That organizational starting point “is maybe a secret weapon,” Mooney said.
* The Downstate numbers…
Democratic Choice for Governor
JB Pritzker 38%
Chris Kennedy 14%
Daniel Biss 12%
Bob Daiber 1%
Tio Hardiman <1%
Robert Marshall <1%
Undecided 33%
Democratic Choice for Attorney General
Pat Quinn 27%
Nancy Rotering 7%
Kwame Raoul 5%
Sharon Fairly 2%
Renato Mariotti 3%
Jesse Ruiz 2%
Aaron Goldstein 2%
Scott Drury 1%
Undecided 52%
* And here are the results for African-American women…
* Democratic Choice for Governor
Daniel Biss 7%
Bob Daiber 2%
Tio Hardiman 1.5%
Chris Kennedy 10%
Robert Marshall <1%
JB Pritzker 44%
Undecided 35%
* Democratic Choice for Attorney General
Raoul 27%
Quinn 20%
Drury 2%
Fairly 2%
Mariotti 2%
Rotering 2%
Goldstein 1.5%
Ruiz 1.5%
Undecided 41%