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Poll: 44 percent of Illinoisans are loser-lovers

Thursday, Apr 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Public Policy Polling has released more results from their recent statewide survey. Here’s one that’ll surely get some tongues wagging…

Would you say you are a Chicago Cubs fan, Chicago White Sox fan, or St. Louis Cardinals fan?

44% Cubs
19% White Sox
22% Cardinals
16% Not a fan of any

The Flubs always win popularity contests. Too bad they can’t win actual ballgames.

Here’s the breakout along partisan lines…

* In less important news, opinions aren’t really set yet over whether the state should eliminate the office of lt. governor…

Do you think Illinois should eliminate the office of Lieutenant Governor?

39% Yes
37% No
24% Not Sure

* PPP also asked questions about corruption. One was whether Illinois has the most corrupt politicians in the country…

57% of Illinois voters express that sentiment to 24% who disagree and 19% who are unsure. Republicans are the most solid in that belief, holding it by an 82/9 margin. But a majority of independents (53/27) and a plurality of Democrats (43/32) do as well.

And then there’s this…

Perhaps the greatest indicator that Illinois is unusually corrupt is that fewer than half of voters in the state think Rod Blagojevich is the most corrupt Governor of the last half century. 42% of voters say he is followed by 29% for George Ryan, a total of 6% for older Governors Otto Kerner and Daniel Walker, and 22% who aren’t sure.

As you might expect opinions about who’s been most corrupt see a division along party lines- Democrats say it’s Ryan while Republicans say it’s Blagojevich.

Here’s the partisan breakdown…

* It’s no surprise that Attorney General Lisa Madigan is popular. It is a bit of a surprise that her favorables are under 50. However, as we’ve seen with other PPP polls, their favorable/approval ratings lag behind others…

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lisa Madigan?

49% Favorable
23% Unfavorable
28% Not Sure

64 percent of Democrats, 28 percent of Republicans and 49 percent of independents/others have a favorable opinion of the AG.

…Adding… Go Sox.

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Rasmussen: Brady leads Quinn 45-38

Thursday, Apr 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Another day, another bad news poll for Gov. Pat Quinn. Today’s result is from Rasmussen. Its early March results are in parentheses, preceded by yesterday’s Public Policy Polling results…

Bill Brady 45% (43%, 47%)
Pat Quinn 38% (33%, 37%)
Some Other Candidate 6% (N/A, 7%)
Not sure 9% (24%, 10%)

From the pollster…

Both candidates barely eked out victories in hard-fought party nomination battles. But Brady can already claim support from 78% of his GOP base, while Quinn attracts only 64% of Democrats… Voters not affiliated with either of the parties prefer Brady to Quinn by better than three-to-one.

* From the toplines…

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

38% Strongly approve
20% Somewhat approve (Total: 58%)
6% Somewhat disapprove
35% Strongly disapprove (Total: 41%)
1% Not sure

How would you rate the job Pat Quinn has been doing as Governor… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

9% Strongly approve
34% Somewhat approve (Total: 43%)
23% Somewhat disapprove
33% Strongly disapprove (Total: 56%)
2% Not sure

That’s a much higher approval rating for Quinn than PPP’s 25 percent. The difference may be due to Rasmussen offering intensity choices, while PPP just offered straight up approve/disapprove choices.

* Favorables…

Quinn is viewed very favorably by 13% of Illinois voters, while 28% view him very unfavorably. Just five percent (5%) have no opinion of the governor.

Nineteen percent (19%) have a very favorable view of Brady, and nearly as many (15%) regard him very unfavorably. But nearly one-out-of-five voters (18%) don’t know enough about him to have any kind of opinion.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

* Other questions…

Some people believe a federal law requiring every American to buy or obtain health insurance is unconstitutional. Some states have announced that they will sue the federal government to fight that requirement. Would you favor or oppose having your state sue the federal government to prevent it from becoming law?
40% Favor
47% Oppose
13% Not sure

Generally speaking, how would you rate the U.S. economy these days? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?
1% Excellent
8% Good
40% Fair
50% Poor
1% Not sure

Are economic conditions in the country getting better or worse?
36% Better
33% Worse
24% Staying the same
7% Not sure

Rasmussen puts the “should the state sue the federal government to overturn health care law” question into a national context…

Just 40% of Illinois voters think the state should sue the federal government, while 47% oppose the idea.

Nationally, 49% of voters favor their states suing the federal government over that requirement in the health care plan. Thirty-even percent (37%) oppose such a suit.

Methodology…

Illinois Survey of 500 Likely Voters Conducted April 5, 2010. Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

Thoughts?

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Thursday, Apr 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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PPP: Brady beating Quinn by ten points

Wednesday, Apr 7, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Yet another poll has state Sen. Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn by a ten-point margin. Public Policy Polling has posted its new numbers. Rasmussen’s results from early March are in parentheses…

Bill Brady 43 (47)
Pat Quinn 33 (37)

An incumbent Democrat in a Democratic state polling in the low thirties is absolutely horrific. There’s just no other way to say it. And setting aside Quinn’s own fate, he’s gotta somehow turn this around or he could take down a whole lot of Democrats this fall. Toplines and crosstabs are here.

From the pollster…

Part of Quinn’s problem within his own party is the same as that of Alexi Giannoulias- many Democrats who aren’t too high on him aren’t choosing a side for now. 28% of Democrats are undecided while only 13% of Republicans are. But Quinn is in a deeper hole than his party’s Senate nominee because 19% of Democrats have already decided to support Brady for Governor compared to only 10% going for Mark Kirk against Giannoulias.

There were contentious primaries on both sides for Governor, but the numbers indicate that the Republicans have unified around Brady while Democrats are just as divided about Quinn as they were two months ago. Only 37% of voters in his party say they approve of the job the Governor is doing to 36% who disapprove, that 1 point net approval pretty much analogous to his one point victory in the primary. For Brady though 44% of Republicans now see him favorably, more than double the percentage of the vote he won in February, while only 11% have a negative opinion of him.

More…

There’s virtually nothing positive that can be derived from Quinn’s poll numbers. Democrats only approve of him by the smallest of margins, 37/36. African Americans disapprove of him by a 24/37 spread, although they still plan to vote for him 51-17. Only 23% of independents and 10% of Republicans think he’s doing a good job.

“It’s very unusual for someone with Pat Quinn’s approval numbers to get reelected,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Maybe voters won’t like what they see once they become more familiar with Bill Brady but for now Republicans are strongly favored to win this race.”

Quinn’s best hope is that the economy turns around a bit and that he can make Brady look like evil incarnate. But the governor doesn’t even have a campaign team in place yet, while Brady is busily putting together the infrastructure he’ll need in the fall.

* Methodology…

PPP surveyed 591 Illinois voters from April 1st to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%.

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Unsolicited advice

Tuesday, Apr 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Dear Gov. Pat Quinn,

Dude, your job rating numbers are quickly sinking into George Ryan territory. Public Policy Polling has teased tomorrow’s results. They have your approval rating at 25 percent, with your disapproval at 53. Yikes, man.

Releasing violent criminals from prison and then refusing to punish those responsible, and then pardoning a bunch of former criminals last week ain’t doing you much good, either. Just sayin’.

Also, two months since the primary and you still have no campaign manager? What are you smoking, man?

* Dear state Sen. Bill Brady,

There is not a single, up-to-date, reputable study that shows anything like the estimate you just gave for how much the new federal health care bill will cost Illinois government…

“Estimates range in an additional $2 (billion) to $6 billion in costs just to the public sector”

But this is not a bad argument at all…

“[Governor Quinn] criticizes my 10-percent reduction in spending, but yet he threatens to reduce classroom spending by 17 percent. He talks about eliminating 33 percent of the state troopers and putting the safety of the public at risk. He talks about eliminating 33 percent of funding for local and municipal governments, putting their public safety at risk.”

* Dear Forrest Claypool,

You showed today that you’re trying to piece back together the liberal/black coalition which so badly frayed during your 2006 primary race against Cook County Board President John Stroger. But having Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr. at your side during today’s press conference won’t exactly help you burnish those reformer credentials. And while your message packed some real punches and was filled with lots of headline fodder, your delivery style needs more than a little work…

I almost fell asleep watching that thing.

* Dear Sheila Simon,

You need a better answer than this…

Question: Your only real elected experience was on the Carbondale City Council. Is that enough to be in the second-highest elected position in our state?

Answer: At a meeting, we were talking about democracy being the same at small towns, bigger towns and at the state level. We need more people participating. I learned many lessons working on the Carbondale City Council that can apply to the state of Illinois. We want to encourage people to pay attention and be part of the process. We encourage people to vote. Our history of corruption in the state shows more people need to be involved in the governing process.

Gobbledygook.

* Dear Illinois State Fair,

Is cover band “Kiss Army” really a grandstand-worthy act on a Saturday night? I will go see Cheap Trick, but all those bubble gum country pop acts are a bit much.

* Dear national media,

Stop enabling this clown…

Is Rod Blagojevich done with television? Don’t count on it.

In a conference call with members of the media on Tuesday, Blagojevich, who was ejected on Sunday from “The Celebrity Apprentice,” said he’s got another “potential” reality show in the works and he’s said he’s also participating in a documentary.

* Your turn…

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Big drop, but not out

Tuesday, Apr 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Democratic US Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias has had a horrible two months in the news media. His family bank’s troubles, replete with all the attendant weirdness of Outfit juice loans and whatnot, have prompted story after story wondering whether he might be pushed out of the race.

Up until today, the Real Clear Politics polling average had Giannoulias ahead of Republican Mark Kirk 43-37. But that’ll drop as soon as RCP plugs in the new Public Policy Polling survey…

Giannoulias 33
Kirk 37

TPM’s polltracker has the average now in favor of Kirk…

Notice that both candidate averages are trending downwards, but Giannoulias’ is far steeper. That’s partly a matter of how the polls were conducted. As the Hotline pointed out the other day, at least one of the earlier pollsters grossly undersampled senior citizens, which would result in giving the Democrat an edge. Kirk leads Giannoulias 39-31 among seniors in the new PPP poll.

* Even though he’s fallen quite a bit, Giannoulias is still hanging in there. And there is a way back, as PPP discusses today…

The main reason Giannoulias is behind is that he’s getting only 54% of the Democratic vote while Kirk is winning 77% of the Republican vote. It’s not that a lot of Democrats are planning to cross over and vote for Kirk, but 36% of them are undecided right now compared to just 16% of Republicans. That suggests Democratic voters don’t really know what to make of Giannoulias’ problems right now so they’re just taking a wait and see approach to the race.

This is a good point…

“The undecided Democrats will decide this race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Will they come home and support Giannoulias in the end, will they stay at home, or will they cross party lines to vote for Kirk? We don’t know that answer yet.”

Kirk has been running TV and radio ads lately, but they haven’t done much to help him as of yet. This is all about Giannoulias right now, which is right where Kirk wants it to be. That won’t last if Giannoulias has the cash to burn in the message with those undecided Democrats and Democratic leaning independents that Kirk is just another Republican obstructionist…

Giannoulias wants to make the election a referendum on Illinois’ favorite son Obama, which has a much better shot at working here than anywhere else. Kirk has tried to portray himself as a moderate, but being against Obama right down the line will make him look like a run-of-the-mill Republican obstructionist come November. Kirk walked right into the trap on health care.

* Other PPP results…

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?
50% Approve
42% Disapprove
8% Not Sure

Do you think that Republicans should work to repeal the health care bill that was passed last week?
42% Yes
47% No
10% Not Sure

Do you support or oppose President Obama’s health care plan, or do you not have an opinion?
46% Support
43% Oppose
11% No Opinion

Those Obama numbers are the lowest I’ve seen so far in Illinois. We’ll have to wait and see what other polls show before making a judgment there.

Methodology of the automated poll…

PPP surveyed 591 Illinois voters from April 1st to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%.

…Adding… Pollsters really need to start plugging in the Green Party candidate. In a year like this, the Green might do well.

* Related…

* Alexi’s good deal

* Bank woes hurting Democrat vying for Senate seat in Illinois

* Democrats stand by Illinois US Senate candidate as race for Obama’s old seat turns stormy

* Barack Obama’s old Senate seat in danger of turning Republican

* What To Do If You’re Tea Party And It’s The Illinois Senate Race

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