* Polling memo…

February 21, 2018

To: Biss for Illinois
From: Brian Stryker
Re: February Statewide Poll Findings

Daniel Biss continues to close the gap between him and JB Pritzker, trailing Pritzker by only 8 points. He has grown his vote by 20 points and caught Chris Kennedy with only two TV ads, and there’s a clear path for Biss to victory if he has the resources to continue to get his message out and build his name ID.

Key Findings

• Biss has shot up in the polls after just more than one TV ad’s worth of airtime.
We polled in the midst of Biss’ second TV ad with major movement for Biss. It’s noteworthy that between our two polls, Daniel Biss has spent roughly less than $2 million on TV while JB Pritzker has spent more than $20 million:

• Biss has a healthy lead among voters who know all three major candidates, often a good predictor of where the race is likely to go. Daniel Biss leads by 9 points among people who can identify him, Pritzker, and Kennedy (35% Biss / 26% Pritzker / 25% Kennedy).

The following findings are based off a poll of n=500 likely March 2018 Illinois Democratic primary voters conducted February 6-11, 2018. The survey was conducted on cellphones and landlines; it has a margin of sampling error of +4.4% and higher for subgroups.

*** UPDATE *** Here’s something I didn’t take into account with the Biss poll until someone called to point it out. Biss may have deliberately sent his pollster into the field on February 6th because it’s the very same day the Tribune published a story about the Pritzker conversation with Rod Blagojevich caught on wiretap about appointing a black person to the US Senate. So, yeah, Pritzker would definitely not be doing well on that day and for several days afterward.

Something to consider anyway.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Chart…

* From late January…

The We Ask America poll of 811 likely voters was taken Jan. 29-30 and shows Pritzker ahead at 29.79 percent, followed by Biss at 17.43 percent. Businessman Chris Kennedy was in third with 11.50 percent. And it shows that 37.95 percent of those polled are still undecided.

* Pritzker poll from late January…

JB currently leads with 41% of the vote, ahead of Daniel Biss at 22%, Chris Kennedy at 16%, and 20% of voters undecided.

* Pritzker poll from mid February…

Results: 37 percent of the those polled backed Pritzker, with Kennedy at 23 percent and Biss with 21 percent.

All but the WAA poll have Biss in the low-to-mid twenties.