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Lipinski, Newman face off at the Sun-Times

Thursday, Jan 25, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rewire

Embattled anti-choice Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski (IL) spoke at a March for Life-affiliated event alongside abortion foes aligned with the Trump administration’s agenda—just a day before he skipped his scheduled Friday address to the march, declining to put himself in what he called a “potentially morally compromised situation” by speaking at the same event as the president.

“So many have been driven out [of the Democratic Party]. And I have a lot of people tell me, ‘Well, just get out,’” Lipinski told the Law of Life Summit, according to an audio recording obtained by Rewire.

“And I always say, ‘Well, I think it’s important to evangelize. I think it’s important to have a voice, crying out in that wilderness, of the need to protect life,’” he continued. “And I’ve always believed, and I always say, the Democratic Party says it stands up for the little guy, and there’s no one who is more vulnerable than the unborn, who need the protection. And so I’m hanging in there.”

* Sun-Times

The Lipinski family formula for political longevity, now spanning 36 years, has always been built upon hewing to the conservative side of the Democratic Party, finding peace with Republicans as protection for general elections.

LaGrange businesswoman Marie Newman thinks that formula has passed its expiration date for U.S. Rep. Dan Lipinski, who followed his father Bill into Congress 14 years ago.

“I don’t think he understands the district has changed beyond dramatically since his tenure,” Newman told the Chicago Sun-Times Editorial Board Wednesday in a joint appearance with Lipinski, their first of the campaign.

The 3rd Congressional District, which represents much of Chicago’s Southwest Side and the southwest suburbs, is now solidly Democratic turf that deserves a solid Democratic vote in the House, not a “squishy situation where you don’t know how the congressperson is going to vote,” Newman said.

Lipinski, 51, countered that the “pragmatic” voters of his district want a like-minded representative willing to reach across party lines to solve problems, not someone who would add to the “bickering and gridlock” in Washington.

The Newman campaign released some poll results last month which it claimed showed Lipinski is vulnerable to a challenge (click here).

* I asked for some additional results. People seem to think that this district is still full of socially conservative Reagan Democrats living in bungalows. But times change. Here are a few results the Newman campaign sent over…

Now, I’m going to read you a list of public figures and I’d like you to tell me whether you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE opinion of each person using a scale that runs from 0 to 10. A 0 on this scale means you have a VERY LOW or VERY UNFAVORABLE opinion of that person. A 10 on this scale means you have a VERY HIGH or VERY FAVORABLE opinion of that person. Now, you can use any number between 0 and 10 to tell me your opinion of each. If you have never heard of a name, or don’t know enough to rate them, please just say so.

Bernie Sanders

    Very Fav: 35%
    Smwt Fav: 31%
    Ntrl: 11%
    Smwt Unfav: 9%
    Very Unfav: 8%
    CR: 4%
    NH: 2%

    Total Fav: 66%
    Total Unfav: 17%

Which of the following types of candidates for Congress are you more likely to support: [RANDOMIZE ORDER, RANDOMIZE PAIRS]

    A Democrat who is pro-choice and pro-LGBT rights 65%

    OR

    A Democrat who is pro-life and supports traditional marriage 23

    (DON’T KNOW) 11

One last question. When it comes to the issue of abortion, do you generally think of yourself as PRO-CHOICE or do you generally think of yourself as PRO-LIFE?
And would you say you are STRONGLY [PRO-CHOICE/PROLIFE] or do you lean [PRO-CHOICE/PRO-LIFE]?

    STRONGLY PRO-CHOICE 47%
    LEAN PRO-CHOICE 18
    LEAN PRO-LIFE 10
    STRONGLY PRO-LIFE 13
    (BOTH) 2
    (NEITHER) 4
    (DON’T KNOW/REFUSED) 6

That’s 65 percent pro-choice and 23 percent pro-life, in case you need help with math.

But, of course, Newman still needs to raise enough money to make sure people know about Lipinski’s record and her own candidacy.

  28 Comments      


Poll: Chuy Garcia at 59 percent, all others in single digits

Thursday, Jan 25, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Polling memo…

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
DATE: January 23, 2018
RE: Recent Survey among Illinois 4th CD Democratic Primary Voters

From January 18 to 21, 2018, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among a representative sample of 400 likely Democratic primary voters in the 4th CD. This survey, which has a margin of error of ±5 percentage points, was fully representative of the 4th CD’s geographic and ethnic demographics, and included cell phone interviews as well as a significant proportion of Spanish-language interviews. The following presents the survey’s key findings:

Chuy Garcia enters the race to succeed incumbent Luis Gutierrez with exceptionally high name recognition and an extremely favorable image that is positive by better than a nine-to-one ratio:

Mr. Garcia’s 93% name recognition puts him on par with Congressman Gutierrez (the rare instance where a non-incumbent candidate has the same name ID as the long-time incumbent), and he is significantly better known than his primary opponents. With the primary election less than two months away, Mr. Garcia’s almost-universal name recognition is an important advantage in a district contained in the expensive Chicago media market.

Mr. Garcia is able to translate his strong name recognition and popularity into a dominating position in the initial trial heat for Congress, already garnering three- fifths of the vote, with NONE of his opponents able to break double digits.

Several key survey results affirm Chuy Garcia’s strong standing and the likelihood that he is headed for an overwhelming victory in March.

    o First, Mr. Garcia has strong support among white voters (48% Garcia, 9% Sol Flores) and overwhelming support among Hispanic voters (70% Garcia, 7% Proco Joe Moreno).

    o Second, sufficient evidence suggests that Mr. Garcia has as good a chance as any of the other candidates to win undecided voters, which is notable because Chuy already has well over a majority of support. His ratings among undecided voters is positive by better than two to one, with nearly 70% of undecided voters finding his background appealing after they hear pro-Garcia information.

    o Finally, Mr. Garcia maintains a better than four-to-one lead in the trial heat (45% Garcia, 11% Proco Joe Moreno) after we read several negative criticisms of Mr. Garcia that could be communicated in this campaign. Again, Chuy Garcia leads by 45% to 11% even after we read critical information about him with NOTHING else read to voters (i.e., NO pro-Garcia OR negatives against his opponents). In other words, if the Garcia campaign does NOTHING and allows his opponents to criticize him without any let-up from now until election day (NEITHER scenario is remotely likely), Mr. Garcia would STILL win this race.

In summary, Chuy Garcia’s high name recognition AND popularity among white and Hispanic voters puts him in a dominating position in the primary election with little “oxygen” for any of his primary opponents. Our survey data makes clear that 4th CD Democrats strongly believe that Chuy Garcia is the best person to succeed Congressman Gutierrez.

  18 Comments      


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