Are Rauner’s new TV ads working?
Tuesday, Apr 11, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
Gov. Bruce Rauner’s approval ratings have seen a big bump compared to his numbers before the presidential election, according to a Morning Consult poll released on Tuesday.
The poll finds that Rauner improved his approval rating to 42 percent, compared to the 33 percent he fared in September, prior to the presidential election. His disapproval rating dropped from 56 percent to 49 percent over the same time period.
However, Rauner is still in the bottom 10 in the rankings, coming in 43rd out of 50 in terms of governors with the best approval ratings. Fifteen governors had approval ratings below 50 percent in the poll.
Rauner’s approval and disapproval ratings are about the same as Robert Bentley who just resigned as governor of Alabama after a sex scandal.
Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker ranked first with a 75 percent approval rating. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie polled the worst with just a 25 percent approval rating.
* Take this poll with a grain of salt, however. Here is its methodology…
More than 85,000 registered voters in America have evaluated the job performance of key elected officials on Morning Consult’s weekly online national polling from January 2017 through March 2017 to determine the latest Senator & Governor Approval Rankings.
On each poll, Americans indicated whether they approved or disapproved of the job performance of President Donald Trump, their state Governor, both of their U.S. Senators, their Member of Congress and their mayor (if they lived in a city with more than about 10,000 residents). For each question, they could answer strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove, or don’t know / no opinion.
Morning Consult obtained an up-to-date list of Governors, U.S. Senators and U.S. Representatives from Sunlight Foundation’s Congress API v3 and Open States API and obtained a list of mayors from the U.S. Conference of Mayors. Survey respondents were assigned to their appropriate Governor and both U.S. Senators based on their state of residence, assigned to their Member of Congress based on a combination of zip code, IP address, latitude and longitude, and assigned to their mayor based on their state and zip code.
We obtained population parameters for registered voters from the November 2012 Current Population Survey (CPS). We applied post-stratification weights based on gender, age, educational attainment and race.
Notice anything missing? How were respondents contacted? How did they respond? When were they contacted?
But, their last survey tracked with other polls, so maybe they’re right.
* Related…
* Is Rauner polling on Democrats in governor’s race?: The respondent said the poll asked if Rauner or his chief political nemesis, Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan, was responsible for the Springfield impasse and whether Madigan’s tenure was part of the ingrained problems at the statehouse. In addition, the poll asked questions about Democratic governor candidates Chris Kennedy and J.B. Pritzker, including a voting preference for either one as well as an opinion of each of the two candidates. The survey did not mention two others in the contest, Northwest Side Ald. Ameya Pawar and state Sen. Daniel Biss of Evanston.