* M3 Strategies is a Republican pollster which did work for Paul Vallas last year, and this particular poll was conducted for the Illinois Policy Institute. However, their polling in the first round of the mayor’s race was dead-on. The results are also about three weeks old. I could go on, but take it for what it’s worth…

POLLING MEMORANDUM
To: Illinois Policy
From: M3 Strategies
Re: Chicago Poll – August 2024
Date: August 16, 2024

BACKGROUND

M3 Strategies surveyed 454 likely voters in Chicago from July 29 – August 2. The survey has a margin of error of 4.6% at 95% confidence. Respondents were randomly selected from a pool of individuals who are likely to vote. All responses were generated via SMS to web survey.

KEY FINDINGS

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson Favorability

• Overall Opinion: Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson is unpopular, with only 27% viewing him favorably (9% strongly favorable, 18% somewhat favorable) and a significant 63% holding an unfavorable view (44% strongly unfavorable, 19% somewhat unfavorable).
• Demographic Breakdown: Johnson’s support is highest among younger voters and the most liberal respondents, while conservatives, older voters, and white respondents hold the most unfavorable views.
o Even among self-described very liberal voters, only 51% approve of him.

Impact of CTU Financial Support on Voter Behavior

• Electoral Impact: Voters express significant opposition to candidates who take money from the CTU, with 55% indicating they would be less likely to vote for such candidates (39% much less likely, 15% somewhat less likely). Only 14% would be more likely to support a candidate receiving CTU funds, and for 31%, it would not make a difference.
• Demographic Breakdown: Opposition to CTU financial support is strongest among older voters, conservatives, and men. In contrast, younger voters and liberals are somewhat more open to candidates backed by the CTU, though even among these groups, opposition is substantial.

Which one or two of the following would you say is the biggest issue facing Chicago rightnow? (Select up to two)

Crime 26%
Recent Migrants from Central and South America 14%
High Taxes 13%
Housing 10%
City Governance 10%
Homelessness 9%
The Economy 7%
Education 7%
Other (please specify) 3%

Would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate for public office if they took money from CTU?

Much more likely 6%
Somewhat more likely 8%
No difference 31%
Somewhat less likely 15%
Much less likely 39%

Crosstabs are here.