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Polling shows Emanuel is no longer upside down

Tuesday, Dec 5, 2017

* Greg Hinz has a pair of poll results on Mayor Rahm Emanuel today. One was taken of Chicagoans in US Rep. Mike Quigley’s district which showed a 57 percent favorable rating and a 41 percent unfavorable rating. Emanuel’s job performance was a net positive, at 52-46. The sample for both polls was of likely Democratic primary voters for next March. So, it doesn’t include the smallish number of Chicagoans who take Republican ballots (about 11 percent last year) and those who may not vote in the mayoral race.

The other one

The other survey—actually, results of two polls of 584 likely [Chicago Democratic primary] voters conducted in late October and then late November—was conducted by a national firm that has done previous work in Illinois. The pollster involved asked questions about Emanuel as part of his survey for a statewide candidate and while neither will allow their names to be used, I spoke with the pollster directly.

In this survey, Emanuel citywide got a personal favorable rating of 50 percent positive and 40 percent negative. His rating from African-Americans was slightly better than among whites, 51/37 as opposed to 51/42, due mostly to a strong 56/32 rating from black women.

Emanuel’s rating on the North Side was 53 percent favorable to 38 percent unfavorable, fairly close to the results in Quigley’s district. The split was narrower on the South Side, 49 percent to 40 percent, and almost even on the West Side, 47 percent to 44 percent.

Those numbers collectively “look like the coalition that elected him last time,” said the pollster, asserting that Emanuel’s public efforts to get more state school aid for Chicago Public Schools, hire more police and help immigrants are having an impact. And overall, Emanuel’s numbers probably are stronger than they appear because the survey excludes Republicans, who likely would lean toward the mayor in a challenge from a progressive on the political left such as Garcia, the pollster said.

Take it for what you will.

…Adding… More results on Quigley from the Quigley campaign…

Very Fav 37% Somewhat Fav 34% Somewhat Unfav 7% Very Unfav 3% Name ID 81%

How would you rate the job Mike Quigley is doing in Congress?

Excellent 28% Good 41% Not so good 11% Poor 5%

If the Democratic primary election for Congress were held today, would you vote to re-elect Mike Quigley, or would you vote to replace him with another Democrat?

Definitely re-elect 35% Probably re-elect 26% Total re-elect 61% Probably replace 11% Definitely replace 7% Total replace 18% Undecided 21%

- Posted by Rich Miller   25 Comments      


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