* Hmm…

Haley is now out.

* M3 Strategies polling memo…

BACKGROUND

M3 Strategies surveyed 473 likely voters in Illinois’ 12th Congressional District from March 2nd to March 4th. It has a margin of error of 4.48% at 95% confidence. Respondents were randomly selected from a pool of individuals who are likely to vote. All responses were generated via SMS to web survey.

KEY FINDINGS

• Congressman Mike Bost leads Darren Bailey on the initial ballot by 6%. Bost leads 45% to 39%, with 16% of voters still undecided.
• Congressman Bost wins older voters, taking those over the age of 65 by over 30%, while Bailey wins among all younger age groups.
• Bost and Bailey split Trump voters, each taking 43%. Bost wins voters who say they are undecided or will vote for Nikki Haley.
• When undecided voters are forced to choose, Congressman Bost’s lead grows to 8%, winning 54% of the vote to Bailey’s 46%.
• Both candidates are well-known and well-liked, pointing to limited room for growth from positive messaging.

o Nearly 77% of those over 65 view Congressman Bost Favorably, including 60% Very Favorably.
o Bailey’s highest favorable rating comes from those aged 31-45, with 71% viewing him Favorably.

• President Trump’s endorsement does not appear to be decisive in this race, with 64% of voters saying that it had no impact or they were not aware of it. 20% of voters said Trump’s endorsement made them more likely to vote for Bost, and 17% said it was more likely to make them vote for Bailey.

o Still, 29% of undecided voters and 18% of Trump supporters said they were unaware Trump had endorsed in the race.

• Asked about the frozen embryos created through “in vitro fertilization” (IVF), only 40% of likely Republican Primary voters in IL-12 believe that “Frozen embryos outside the Mother’s womb should be considered a child,” pointing to broad, bipartisan support for IVF.

And now you see why neither Bost nor Bailey want to comment on IVF.

Read the toplines and some crosstabs by clicking here.