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Hynes poll shows major damage to Quinn and a real race

Wednesday, Jan 20, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Dan Hynes campaign has released a new polling memo which shows they’ve done some major damage to Quinn’s fortunes and made this a real horse race - with a major assist from Republican Andy McKenna’s campaign, which is whacking the guv like crazy on the tax issue. In essence, Quinn has been hit with a two-track assault for weeks without much of a response.

The seven-point spread in Hynes’ poll is about the same as a poll I told subscribers about yesterday. That other poll, taken by the Alexi Giannoulias campaign, had it at 49-43, sources outside the campaign now confirm.

Anyway, on to the Hynes polling memo. All emphasis in original…

With two weeks to go in the primary campaign for Governor of Illinois, Dan Hynes is surging – according to a recent poll of 500 likely Democratic primary voters conducted January 17 – 18, 2009 by Global Strategy Group. Key findings include:

* Dan Hynes is now within just seven points and Quinn is polling well below 50%. Today, Pat Quinn leads with just 44% of the vote to Dan Hynes at 37% and 19% undecided. That is a remarkable change versus our November poll (where Quinn led by 17 points) and the Chicago Tribune’s December poll (where Quinn led by 26 points). It is clear that the most recent advertising blitz is causing voters to tune into this campaign and that voters are moving towards Hynes as they see competing advertisements from both sides.

* Pat Quinn’s ratings are in a total free-fall. Quinn’s negative job approval rating is now at 60% – up ten points since November. Remarkably, only 36% of primary voters approve of the job Quinn is doing.

* Pat Quinn is unelectable in a general election. Pat Quinn has a 60% negative job rating (and just a 36% positive job rating) among primary voters – a group that should be his strongest in a general election. Such a low rating with primary voters means that Quinn’s ratings must be even worse with a general election electorate that includes Republicans and Independents. In this political environment, Quinn simply cannot win in November.

* Voters view Dan Hynes as by far the better choice on the key economic issues facing Illinois. Voters think Hynes will do a better job “handling the state’s budget and finances” (Hynes 43%/Quinn 29%), and “cutting waste from state government” (Hynes 39%/Quinn 27%). In addition, by a stunning 54% to 9% voters believe it is Pat Quinn who will raise their taxes.

The bottom line is this: Now that voters are paying attention to this campaign – and seeing competing advertisements from both campaigns – Dan Hynes is surging and Pat Quinn is in a total free-fall. Hynes is within single digits and Quinn is well below 50% in an environment where undecideds will likely break against the better known incumbent Governor. With two weeks to go, Hynes is in a great position to win this campaign.

Those are awful numbers for Quinn. Just awful. A disapproval of 60? Oof. And that 54-9 on how Quinn will be the one to raise their taxes? Hynes ought to send McKenna a big box of roses for that one.

* Meanwhile, Hynes has a new, hard-hitting 15-second ad on the botched early release program. It was ripped from live TV, so there is a little bleed-over from other stuff at the beginning and end. Sorry about that. Anyway, rate it…

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Sunday campaign roundup

Sunday, Jan 17, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sen. Kirk Dillard’s campaign claims a recent poll has their guy with a big lead…

The Dillard campaign paid for an automated poll of 2,153 likely Republican primary voters on Wednesday, results of which showed Dillard leading with 22.4 percent support.

Andy McKenna had 13.5 percent, former Attorney General Jim Ryan 10.3 percent, state Sen. Bill Brady 8.3 percent, Dan Proft about 6 percent, Adam Andrzejewski 5.6 percent and Bob Schillerstrom 2.1 percent. Nearly 32 percent of those polled were undecided.

But Tom Cross isn’t buying it…

Illinois House Minority Leader TOM CROSS, R-Oswego, who has endorsed McKenna, said fresh results from a poll of 500 people in the Kane and Kendall County areas on Wednesday put McKenna at 23 percent, Ryan at 14 percent, Dillard at 10 percent, Proft at 7 percent, Andrzejewski at 6 percent, Brady at 4 percent and Schillerstrom at 2 percent.

“That’s the take we have on reality,” Cross said.

Bill Brady’s campaign says both polls are phony. From a press release…

Occasionally, a journalist will fail to ask the right questions and publish what amounts to campaign propaganda, as columnist Bernie Schoenburg did today. Schoenburg also uncritically published a claim by an Andy McKenna surrogate that unsurprisingly claims that McKenna is doing well in two counties representing 6.8 percent of the state vote. Were the full results released? No. Did McKenna release any statewide numbers. No. Another phony poll.

I did see the background material on the Dillard poll, and they make a decent case that Dillard - and McKenna - are both spiking upwards.

* The Tribune today followed up on my Friday post (without actually saying so, of course) and wrote more about Jack Roeser’s contribution to Sen. Kirk Dillard’s GOP campaign…

…Roeser has contributed $250,000 to Dillard, with more potentially on the way. In the past two governor primaries, Roeser backed candidates with $450,000 apiece — businessman Jim Oberweis and former state Sen. Pat O’Malley — in unsuccessful bids for the GOP nomination.

Asked if Dillard could expect similar financial support, Roeser said, “I will support him considerably, as will other men of conscience.”

Dillard’s courting of Roeser’s money is partly driven by his troubles in raising campaign contributions, sources familiar with his governor bid acknowledged. But the move also could run counter to Dillard’s attempt to build the image of a pragmatic conservative unafraid to work with Democrats to get things done.

Should Dillard win the Republican governor nomination, he could be sharing the top of the ticket with U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk, the party’s front-runner for Senate. Roeser, Dillard’s new patron, has been a longtime critic of Kirk, promoting a “Kick Mark Kirk to the Curb” effort over the five-term North Shore congressman’s socially moderate positions on abortion and other issues. Roeser also has worked to enlist disaffected “tea party” support for his favored candidate in the Senate race, Hinsdale businessman Patrick Hughes.

Oddly, not mentioned in the story is Roeser’s long-running war against the Illinois Education Association, which, you already know, endorsed Dillard on Friday. For instance, here’s Roeser rapping the IEA over its opposition to pension reform…

The IEA particularly is a villain making the education of our children unfairly expensive.

The IEA is apparently not happy with the Roeser cash.

Illinois Review caught up with Dillard and asked him about the IEA endorsement. Watch…

When asked whether he sought the IEA’s endorsement, Dillard said he “filled out their forms.” But it’s been known for some time that he’s been seeking the group’s nod. Dillard said in a Tribune “debate” back in early December that he had told the “educators” the previous weekend he wouldn’t rule out a tax hike…

At about the 11:10 mark…

Moderator Question - Senator, you’re still leaving a tax increase on the table as a possibility?

Dillard Response – Every option Bruce. You know, I told the educators just this weekend, everything needs to be on the table…

IEA President Ken Swanson talks about the Dillard endorsement. Have a look…

Sen. Bill Brady said in a press release that the Dillard nod meant taxes would go up if his colleague is elected…

Illinois voters should expect their taxes will be raised if my opponent Kirk Dillard is elected Governor.

The Illinois Education Association’s endorsement of Senator Dillard this weekend highlights the fact that he hasn’t completely ruled out a tax increase as the reason why he received the backing of the teachers’ union. IEA says Dillard is “interested in finding reductions and efficiencies that make sense, but if and when that’s not enough, he can pragmatically reach out to the other leaders and work out a (revenue) solution that’s good for the state.”

Well, we all know what that means — higher taxes.

* In other news, Dan Hynes was endorsed by the State Journal-Register, the Champaign News Gazette and the Peoria Journal Star. Sen. Bill Brady was endorsed by the News Gazette. Dillard was endorsed by the Journal Star.

Hynes was also endorsed by Dock Walls, who was forced to withdraw from the gubernatorial ballot by forces allied with Pat Quinn.

* Dillard also has a new TV ad. Watch…

This is not the ad I saw yesterday during the football game, however. That ad featured Jim Edgar much more prominently.

[I’ll open comments on Tuesday.]

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