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More adventures in polling

Friday, Sep 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From today’s Tribune poll narrative

Nearly 6 in 10 voters in the latest survey said the [ethics reform] measures enacted by lawmakers and Quinn would have little or no effect on curbing corruption in Illinois, while roughly a third of voters said such measures would have at least some impact.

The actual poll question, which is not published online…

The governor and the legislature recently enacted tougher state government ethics reform measures to curb political corruption. How likely will these reform measures eliminate political corruption?

5 very
30 somewhat
30 not too
30 not likely at all

The Tribune’s pollster did not ask whether the bills would “curb” political corruption, as the narrative claims. The pollster asked whether the bills would “eliminate” political corruption.

No law will ever eliminate political corruption. Frankly, I’m amazed that 35 percent would think any legislation would completely do away with corruption.

But, it’s almost certain that the Tribune editorial page will use this ridiculous polling result to bash the GA again and again.

* Back to the narrative

At the same time, 3 out of 4 voters favor term limits for statewide elected officials and want to see the same applied to the leadership positions in the state Senate and House, the poll showed.

That’s no surprise. Other polls have shown similar support.

But the pollster told respondents that statewide officials can “serve as many four-year terms as they like,” as if there was no such thing as elections.

Sheesh.

Respondents were told that legislative leaders “can also serve as long as they like.” Former House GOP Leader Lee Daniels might not agree with that one.

* And now for a different Tribune poll story today

Illinois voters are ambivalent about the job Gov. Pat Quinn has done in his first seven months, even as he prepares to seek a full term in next year’s election, a Tribune/WGN poll found. […]

The statewide poll of 700 registered voters found 39 percent approved of the job he has done since then, while 26 percent disapproved and 35 percent had no opinion. The telephone poll, conducted Aug. 27-31 by Market Shares Corp., has a 4 percentage point margin of error. […]

Almost half of Democrats, 47 percent, approved of the job Quinn has done while 19 percent disapproved. Another 34 percent had no opinion.

They ought to have given the MoE for that smaller sample size. It would’ve been quite high.

The same MoE point applies to the Trib’s story this week about Todd Stroger’s low support among African-Americans. Stroger’s campaign claims the Tribune pollster surveyed just 81 registered African-American voters to come up with this result

Only about 1 in 5 African-American voters polled approve of the job Stroger is doing or want to see him re-elected, while more than half oppose him.

* By the way, the Dan Hynes gubernatorial campaign has now released a couple of their own polling questions from last month. The poll was conducted August 19-23 of 800 likely Democratic primary voters.

Pat Quinn job approval among Dems…

Excellent 8
Good 37
Only fair 42
Poor 8

I’ve said for months that Quinn’s approval rating is centered in the mushy middle. People just don’t have a hard opinion of him.

The Pat Quinn reelect numbers among Democrats show much the same…

Vote to reelect Pat Quinn 27
Consider someone else 45
Definitely vote for someone else 18
Don’t know 10

They’re not sold on Quinn yet.

* Related…

* Cook County Board President Todd Stroger asks committeemen to slate him for re-election - Committeemen likely to decide on an open primary

* Democratic Leaders Continue Endorsement Talks

* Cook Dems slate candidates, pass on County Board president

* Democrats still debating whether to back Todd Stroger - Leaders slate other races, but choice for Cook County Board president still up in the air

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Stroger approval rating at 10 percent

Thursday, Sep 10, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Tribune’s latest poll has Todd Stroger’s job approval rating at 10 percent. That’s even lower than Rod Blagojevich’s 13 percent rating the autumn before his December arrest.

His disapproval rating is astounding…

Fully 70 percent disapprove of the job Stroger is doing, according to the poll of 300 Cook County registered voters. Asked whether they would like to see Stroger re-elected, 72 percent say no.

Stroger’s rating with black voters is horrid…

Only about 1 in 5 African-American voters polled approve of the job Stroger is doing or want to see him re-elected, while more than half oppose him.

And without providing specifics, the Tribune claims that more than three-quarters of voters want Stroger’s one percentage point sales tax repealed.

* Stroger’s response

“I’m not surprised that the Tribune poll fails to accurately capture the opinions of voters – just as I’m not surprised by the ongoing smear campaign this paper mounts against me in their editorial pages,” Stroger said in a statement. “This paper’s owner, Sam Zell, after all, poured over $75,000 in the final weeks of the last primary into the campaign coffers of Forrest Claypool, and has made no secret that the Stroger name is loathed by the editorial pages.” […]

“[A]cross the county, countless residents have voiced outrage at the biased editorials of the Chicago Tribune and its running attempt to steer an election,” Stroger said. […]

“Our recent polling data severely conflicts with the so-called ‘data’ that the Chicago Tribune is publishing in this poll, not surprising given the miniscule size of the sample, particularly among minority communities.”

The Tribune poll is only of 300 voters, but Stroger shouldn’t be surprised at the results. They’ve been around that point for a very long time now.

Discuss.

  30 Comments      


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