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They know who Madigan is, and they don’t love him
Friday, Oct 16, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller * The Paul Simon Institute has a new statewide poll [fixed link]. The gubernatorial head-to-heads will probably get the most coverage, but there’s something more important that we should look at first. Check out the highlighted results from these job approval ratings…
The “don’t know” answer was prefaced by this statement from the pollster: “If you don’t know enough about that person, just tell me that.” It’s long been said that Speaker Madigan couldn’t be made an issue in campaigns because voters don’t know who he is. That’s definitely true of the other leaders, but it doesn’t appear to be the case with Speaker Madigan. For example, far more voters don’t know who Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is, or don’t know enough about him to make a judgment (46.8%) than Madigan (17.1%). The same goes for Comptroller Dan Hynes (41.0%). About an equal number say they don’t know who is/enough about Roland Burris (16.4%) when compared to Madigan. And the difference isn’t all that great between Speaker Madigan’s “don’t know” numbers and Gov. Quinn’s (12.8%). The pollster said he was astounded by the Madigan results because most people in other states have little idea who the House Speaker is. Also, obviously, Speaker Madigan’s support amongst the populace is quite soft, while his disapproval rating is far more intense. * Methodology…
But the head-to-heads in the primary matchups have far higher margins of error…
89 with an opinion? Holy moly, that’s a microscopic sample size. * Keeping those very tiny numbers in mind, the Dem results…
Republicans…
Also keep in mind that this poll was conducted before Jim Ryan and Andy McKenna announced and before Jim Edgar announced his support for Dillard, which (as I told subscribers today) may have given Dillard a big bump in recent polling. And make sure you remember that the poll only picked up two days, at most, of Hynes’ TV ad buy. * More job approval numbers…
62.7 percent approval for Obama is a notch higher than the 59 percent in the Tribune’s late August poll. 58.1 percent approval for Gov. Quinn is way higher than the Tribune’s 39 percent. That is probably because the Trib appeared to ask approve/disapprove/no opinion, while this PSI poll asked strongly/somewhat/don’t know. The Tribune had 35 percent with no opinion, vs. this poll at 12.8 percent. I’ve said many times before that Quinn’s support and opposition is soft, with most in the mushy middle. This poll and the Trib poll both seemed to show that as well.
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Friday, Oct 16, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller
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More adventures in polling
Friday, Sep 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller * From today’s Tribune poll narrative…
The actual poll question, which is not published online…
The Tribune’s pollster did not ask whether the bills would “curb” political corruption, as the narrative claims. The pollster asked whether the bills would “eliminate” political corruption. No law will ever eliminate political corruption. Frankly, I’m amazed that 35 percent would think any legislation would completely do away with corruption. But, it’s almost certain that the Tribune editorial page will use this ridiculous polling result to bash the GA again and again. * Back to the narrative…
That’s no surprise. Other polls have shown similar support. But the pollster told respondents that statewide officials can “serve as many four-year terms as they like,” as if there was no such thing as elections. Sheesh. Respondents were told that legislative leaders “can also serve as long as they like.” Former House GOP Leader Lee Daniels might not agree with that one. * And now for a different Tribune poll story today…
They ought to have given the MoE for that smaller sample size. It would’ve been quite high. The same MoE point applies to the Trib’s story this week about Todd Stroger’s low support among African-Americans. Stroger’s campaign claims the Tribune pollster surveyed just 81 registered African-American voters to come up with this result…
* By the way, the Dan Hynes gubernatorial campaign has now released a couple of their own polling questions from last month. The poll was conducted August 19-23 of 800 likely Democratic primary voters. Pat Quinn job approval among Dems…
I’ve said for months that Quinn’s approval rating is centered in the mushy middle. People just don’t have a hard opinion of him. The Pat Quinn reelect numbers among Democrats show much the same…
They’re not sold on Quinn yet. * Related…
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Friday, Sep 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller
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