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This just in…

Thursday, Apr 30, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 1:50 pm - The Public Policy Polling survey we had here yesterday was of likely Democratic primary voters. But today’s PPP poll is of 991 Illinois voters. The poll was taken April 24-26 and has a margin of error of +/-3.1 percent. Crosstabs and other results can be found by clicking here.

Let’s look at the US Senate head-to heads first, since Lynn Sweet is reporting (and sources confirm) that “Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) is poised to jump in the 2010 Illinois Senate race”…

Q6 If the candidates for US Senate next year were Democrat Roland Burris and Republican Mark Kirk, who would you vote for?

19% Burris
53% Kirk
28% Undecided

Oof.

Then again, a Republican vegetable might be able to beat Burris at this point.

More realistic opponents…

33% Schakowsky
37% Kirk
30% Undecided

35% Giannoulias
35% Kirk
29% Undecided

The partisan breakdown of this poll is 45 percent Democrat, 30 percent Republican and 25 percent independent, so Kirk is doing better than the partisan benchmark and both Giannoulias and Schakowsky are under-polling.

…Adding… From Politico

Many Illinois voters are still unfamiliar with the leading candidates. Kirk’s favorability rating is 33 percent, with 24 percent viewing him unfavorably. A 43 percent plurality weren’t familiar with him.

And while Giannoulias holds a statewide office, he also isn’t well-known in the state – with 40 percent of voters unfamiliar with him. The state treasurer holds a 39 percent approval rating, with 21 percent viewing him unfavorably.

Attorney General Lisa Madigan does the best…

33% Kirk
49% Madigan
18% Undecided

* Now, onto the governor’s race

Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were Republican Bill Brady and Democrat Pat Quinn, who would you vote for?

32% Brady
39% Quinn
29% Undecided.

Man, that’s weak for Quinn.

27% Brady
46% Madigan
26% Undecided

Brady is getting 15 percent of the African-American vote in this survey, which could show weakness for Madigan, but it’s highly doubtful that Brady will get that many African-American votes come election day.

* Meanwhile, as we’ve noted before, Dan Proft is considering a run for governor, but I’m not quite sure what this press release means yet…

Cicero, Illinois… Dan Proft released the following statement today about his decision to step down as Cicero Town Spokesman effective May 1, 2009:

It is after much deliberation that I have come to the decision to leave the town. My decision is based entirely on an opportunity that has presented itself to pursue other professional endeavors. To highlight this point, I am not only leaving the town but I am also taking a leave from my firm, Urquhart Media, to take up the opportunity I referenced.

I may have more later today.

*** 3:20 pm *** Here’s your “more.” I’m hearing Proft is just about there. Decision will be announced soon.

  56 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, Apr 29, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The setup, from a Public Policy Polling survey of 415 likely Democratic primary voters between April 24 and 26th. Crosstabs and press release are both at this link

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Democratic Senator Roland Burris’ job performance?

27% Approve
49% Disapprove
24% Not Sure

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Democratic Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky?

42% Favorable
8% Unfavorable
50% Not Sure

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias?

53% Favorable
10% Unfavorable
37% Not Sure

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Democratic Attorney General Lisa Madigan?

74% Favorable
13% Unfavorable
13% Not Sure

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat Quinn’s job performance?

56% Approve
14% Disapprove
30% Not Sure

Q6 Next year do you intend to vote in the Democratic primary or the Republican primary, or are you not sure?

100% Democratic
0% Republican
0% Not Sure

Q7 If the Democratic candidates for US Senate were Roland Burris and Alexi Giannoulias, who would you vote for?

20% Burris
49% Giannoulias
30% Undecided

Q8 If the Democratic candidates for US Senate next year were Roland Burris, Jan Schakowsky, and Alexi Giannoulias, who would you vote for?

16% Burris
26% Schakowsky
38% Giannoulias
21% Undecided

Q9 If the Democratic candidates for US Senate next year were Roland Burris, Jan Schakowsky, Alexi Giannoulias, and Lisa Madigan who would you vote for?

13% Burris.
11% Schakowsky
19% Giannoulias
44% Madigan
14% Undecided

Q10 If the Democratic candidates for Governor next year were Lisa Madigan and Pat Quinn, who would you vote for?

45% Madigan
29% Quinn
26% Undecided

* The Question: You’re pundit for a day. Pick a few responses, delve into the crosstabs if you desire and analyze away.

  37 Comments      


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Wednesday, Apr 29, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

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