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Campaign 2010 roundup

Tuesday, Apr 28, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* More from Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky’s pollster…

To: Interested Parties
From: Lake Research Partners
Subject: The 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate in Illinois
Date: April 24, 2009

Findings from a recent survey of likely Democratic Primary voters in Illinois show a wide open race for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Senator Roland Burris, with Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky holding a narrow lead over all candidates, including the incumbent Senator. In addition, when voters learn more information (positive and negative) about the candidates, Schakowsky expands her lead over the field. Schakowsky’s message resonates strongly with a Democratic electorate hungry for progressive leadership that will once again provide Illinois families a chance at the American Dream.

Congresswoman Schakowsky owns a slight lead in a race that is wide open at this early stage. In an initial three-way trial heat, Schakowsky takes nearly a quarter of the vote (24%), narrowly edging out State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (22%). Senator Roland Burris draws just 18% of the vote – a striking indicator of his vulnerability. The intensity of support also narrowly favors Schakowsky (16% strong support), followed by Giannoulias (15%) and Burris (10%). Still, with over one-third (36%) of the Democratic Primary electorate undecided, this seat is up for grabs.

After voters hear positive statements about the candidates, Schakowsky posts a double-digit lead. Schakowsky’s lead grows from 2 points in the initial ballot to 16 points after voters hear more about the candidates (see text of statements on following page). She leads Giannoulias on the three-way ballot, 38% to 22%, with 21% undecided. C.E.O. Cheryle Jackson attracts 17% of the vote.[2]

Notably, the percentage of voters who support Schakowsky strongly on the informed ballot (23% strong support) outnumbers the tot al percentage of voters who support Giannoulias (22% overall support).

Even after voters hear negative information about Schakowsky and the other candidates, Schakowsky retains a solid lead over the field.

That last paragraph is key for Schakowsky. Lots of people believe her husband’s imprisonment kills off her chances. As I told subscribers today, her poll doesn’t show that at all - at least, not in her mind. We’ll see what happens when the real race kicks in.

More…

Even more impressive , Schakowsky’s lead is not a function of superior name recognition, which actually belongs to Giannoulias. Voters have a slightly more informed opinion of Giannoulias, and both candidates are viewed positively. Despite Giannoulias’ advantage in name recognition, however, Schakowsky leads throughout.

Bottom Line: At this early stage in the race, Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky is the strongest candidate in a wide open race for the Democratic nomination for Illinois’ U.S. Senate seat. Schakowsky’s lead on the initial ballot against incumbent Senator Roland Burris and several other serious candidates is impressive, and once voters learn more about each of the candidates they coalesce around her candidacy in significant numbers.

Even after hearing a strong attack on Schakowsky, the Congresswoman retains her lead.

Again, check that last sentence.

* If I wasn’t sick yesterday, I would’ve scooped Sneed on this one, but whatever. The Kennedy’s are her beat anyway…

Sneed has learned Chris Kennedy, son of the late U.S. Sen. Robert Kennedy, may be this/close to entering the U.S. Senate sweepstakes from Illinois.

• • To wit: “Right now, it’s an 85 percent chance Chris is going to do it,” a top Kennedy source tells Sneed.

• • Poll ‘em: Sneed is told Kennedy, who runs the Merchandise Mart, has commissioned Obama pollster John Anzalone — and has talked to media consultants Larry Grisolano and John Kupper, who now run the firm once headed by David Axelrod, President Obama’s senior adviser.

• • Translation: The poll, which is expected at the end of the week, “will give him a better lay of the land in this ever-changing race,” the source said.

* And Greg Hinz has more about the big losses in Alexi Giannoulias’ Bright Start program…

One: Mr. Giannoulias’ office was informed last April that Core Bond had heavily invested in mortgage-backed securities, far beyond what its benchmark specified. But he kept putting new Bright Start money into the fund for another seven months.

Two: Core Bond wasn’t the only Oppenheimer fund from which Mr. Giannoulias abruptly pulled Bright Start funds late last year because of investment losses. But he hasn’t disclosed that. Morningstar did.

Three: State Sen. Chris Lauzen of Aurora, the GOP co-chair of the Legislature’s audit commission, says he may soon call for a full review of how Illinois families lost something more than $85 million in what were supposed to be safe, protected investments.

It would be nice if we could get one clear, concise story about why this is important. As it is, nobody but the Republicans are picking up on it.

* Meanwhile, Gov. Quinn says he’ll probably run for a full term and reveals how much he’s raised so far…

Quinn said he has raised about $250,000 for his gubernatorial campaign.

Every journey begins with a first step, I suppose.

* Related…

* ‘Senior’ moment from Roland Burris

* Burris slips up introducing Durbin on Biden tour

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Tuesday, Apr 28, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Claypool leads in Chicago in three-way race

Friday, Apr 24, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* More from those Chicago poll results…

Some analysis from Progress Illinois…

The numbers here aren’t terribly surprising (though keep in mind that the poll was conducted before the Dunnings/Cole scandal). Preckwinkle and Stroger are splitting the African-American vote and lagging way behind Claypool among whites. The survey didn’t test second-choices, so it’s hard to guage how either Stroger or Preckwinkle would fare in a head-to-head match-up against Claypool.

Meanwhile, the Latino community has the highest number of undecideds. Among those Latinos who do favor a candidate, however, the breakdown is pretty interesting. Both Claypool and Preckwinkle are in the low- to middle-teens, while Stroger has nearly three times as much support.

I’d add more, but I already did this one for subscribers.

* Meanwhile, the aftermath of yesterday’s special county board meeting was more than a little chaotic…

Stroger declined to answer reporters’ questions, which he typically does after board meetings, and security blocked access to commissioners’ offices routinely open to the news media.

When Commissioner Larry Suffredin (D-Evanston) told reporters that Stroger has created “a total lack of confidence in this government,” Stroger spokeswoman Chris Geovanis interrupted to accuse commissioners such as Suffredin of engaging in “a smear campaign for purely political reasons.”

* Related…

* Todd Stroger’s people knew. Did he?

* Cook County: Todd Stroger sticks by story about worker’s past

* Protecting Stroger

* Tony Cole’s Background Check at Center of County Hiring Controversy

* Demand For Answers In Stroger Hiring Scandal

* County CFO Resignation Causes Stir at Board Meeting

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Madigan stomping Quinn in Chicago

Friday, Apr 24, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* First up, more results from that poll of Chicagoans we discussed yesterday. Attorney General Lisa Madigan has a big lead over Gov. Pat Quinn…

Those numbers include initially undecided voters who were then asked which way they were leaning.

* Mayor Daley, however, thinks quite highly of Gov. Quinn…

“Pat Quinn has done a very good job so far,” Daley said. “I think he has the passion and the heart. He does. He has a soul.” […]

Asked if his effusive praise for Quinn amounted to an endorsement in 2010, Daley replied, “You just asked me how well he was doing, and I think he is working really hard.” […]

“You know, the thing I’ve always been impressed with — he’s gone to every funeral of every young man killed in Afghanistan in Iraq, no matter what part of the state,” said the mayor, whose son was in the military in Afghanistan. “He doesn’t do it for publicity. He is just thanking them. Very, very interesting.”

* But Quinn canceled a fundraising appearance in Rockford last night after over 100 protesters showed up…

Governor or not, they chanted outside the Radison hotel. With signs in hand, more then 100 educators protested against Governor Pat Quinn’s proposal for school funding.

* And my Sun-Times column today takes Quinn to task…

There’s a program for doctors and hospitals called “Sorry Works.” The idea is to apologize to patients after medical mistakes are made and offer reasonable compensation. It’s not only the right thing to do, but it often helps avoid expensive malpractice lawsuits.

The Chicago Sun-Times editorialized in favor of the program in 2005 after the paper published an article showing the concept had seemed to cut legal actions in half against the University of Michigan Health System.

Anyway, this column isn’t about doctors. It’s about Gov. Pat Quinn.

Earlier this week, the governor was asked if he thought he should apologize for defending and even praising the now-indicted Rod Blagojevich, particularly during the 2006 gubernatorial campaign. At the time, he was running with Blagojevich as his lieutenant governor.

“No, I don’t think apologies are necessary,” Quinn said, adding that voters “do not want to look backwards.”

“They want to look forward, and that’s what I’ve tried to do in the last 12 weeks, find every way we can to open up our government and to have reform in every place in our government,” Quinn said.

In a way, he’s right. It most certainly is time to fix the many horrific problems Blagojevich created. We shouldn’t be overly fixated on the past.

But, we cannot turn a blind eye to the terrible mistakes that many of us made. If we don’t own up to our mistakes, how can we expect others to believe that we won’t avoid similar errors in the future?

I for one, was at times taken in by Rod Blagojevich. Usually, I was pretty circumspect, but I believed some of his stories about the trouble he was in and occasionally fell for his considerable charms.

So, just let me say right here and now, I sincerely apologize and I’ll try never to let that happen again.

I feel better now. You might want to try it, especially if you voted for Blagojevich, or believed his lying campaign ads, fell for his spin doctors’ lines or ever defended him during a conversation.

Go ahead. I’ll wait. Just say it out loud. “I’m sorry.”

See? Don’t you feel better?

And if doctors can avoid lawsuits by apologizing, Quinn might want to start thinking about how voters will react to his refusal to say, “I’m sorry.”

A new poll conducted by the widely used Democratic firm of Bennett, Petts & Normington shows Attorney General Lisa Madigan is already thumping Quinn 2-1 in a Democratic primary.

Five hundred Chicagoans were surveyed March 23-25 and the margin of error is 4.5 percentage points. The poll was conducted on behalf of the Service Employees International Union.

According to the poll, Madigan has 44 percent to 22 percent for Quinn. Add in those who are leaning toward one candidate or the other, and Madigan is ahead 48-24. About 28 percent were undecided. She’s way up in the African-American community as well, 51-23.

Madigan had $3.5 million in her campaign account at the end of last year and has since been on a fund-raising tear. That’s a whole lot of money to bash Quinn for trying to raise taxes and stubbornly refusing to apologize for praising Blagojevich.

Quinn had just $85,000 on hand last year and is about to hold his first major fund-raiser since being elevated to the governor’s office.

A recent poll taken by Rasmussen Reports had Quinn with a 61 percent job approval rating. But most — 44 percent — only “somewhat” approved. His numbers are soft and he’s vulnerable.

Sorry works, governor.

* Related…

* Gov: State will ‘overcome challenges’

* Watch replay of Quinn’s visit

* Health panel quackery

* Quinn won’t apologize for Blagojevich connections

* Quinn opens historic sites, says they’ll stay open

* Crowd helps Quinn reopen Dana-Thomas House

* Quinn touts aid for home updates during visit

* Gov. Quinn in Rockford for Earth Day

* Wind power: Homeowners, small businesses install turbines to cut long-term energy costs

* Even in the wild blue yonder, it’s up to us to go green

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