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Slowly but surely, people are learning

Monday, Mar 23, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Again, these are ancient numbers for a public opinion snapshot, but let’s look at ‘em anyway…

Registered voters in Illinois are less likely than in the past to believe “cutting waste and inefficiency” can solve the state’s budget woes, and more likely to believe that revenue increases are at least part of the solution, according to the results of a Simon Poll released Monday.

As in six previous polls, conducted by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale, interviewers presented respondents with three options for fixing the state budget deficit:

    1. Increase taxes, because programs and services have already been cut; or
    2. Cut waste and inefficiency in government, because the state takes in enough money to pay for services; or
    3. A combination of cuts and revenue increases, because the budget problem is so large.

For the second time in seven surveys going back to 2009, almost half (48 percent) chose a response that included revenue increases—whether tax increases alone (14 percent) or in combination with budget cuts (34 percent).

Just over four in ten (42 percent) said the budget problem could be fixed by cutting waste and inefficiency alone—the lowest number in the time series, and down from a high of 58 percent in 2011.

Simon Institute visiting professor Charlie Leonard said he and his colleagues believe they are measuring a real sea change in the way Illinoisans view the budget problem. “Because mistrust of state government is unusually high in Illinois, compared to the rest of the country, voters have long believed there must be enough waste and fraud to offset the massive budget deficits we have faced for years,” Leonard said. “However, after detailed, protracted coverage in the media, and facing the real prospect of cuts to programs they like, we think Illinoisans are coming to grips with a problem that is far larger than they used to believe.”

* But…

In the 2015 survey, partisanship predictably influenced responses. Half (51 percent) of Republican respondents believed cutting waste alone could balance the budget, compared with just under half (46.9 percent) of Independents and just over a third (34.9 percent) of Democrats.

Similarly, belief that cuts alone could solve the problem was higher downstate (47.3 percent) than in the Chicago suburbs (42.6 percent) or in the city of Chicago (33.5 percent).

You’d think that after suffering through one facility closure after another that Downstaters would shy away from cuts, but maybe they are thinking about cuts to things than don’t impact them.

* Anyway, here are the year-by-year results to this question: The state of Illinois has a budget deficit of over [amount varies by year]. I’m going to read three statements that people have made about how to fix the deficit, and ask you which one comes closest to your views. If you haven’t thought much about this issue, just tell me that…

* And the trend remains strong against public employees…

Since 2008 Simon Institute polls have asked Illinois registered voters whether they favor or oppose budget cuts for a number of state programs, from education to infrastructure to social programs for the poor and disabled.

Respondents were more likely to favor cuts to state workers’ retirement than in any other area tested. Even so, opposition to cuts in retirement spending was higher than support (at 44.3 percent in favor to 49.1 percent opposed).

Support was lowest for cuts in spending on programs for the disabled (13.2 percent) and cuts to K-12 education (15.7 percent). While opposition to cuts in specific program areas outweighs support in every instance, it is also true that levels of support for cuts in those areas has grown, again in each of the seven program areas tested.

Support for cutting pension benefits has more than doubled since 2008, from 22 percent back then to a high of 45.5 percent a few years ago, to 44 percent now…

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