* Yesterday’s poll results that showed Democrat Dan Seals in the hunt against Republican Congressman Mark Kirk drew one of the most unusually harsh responses from a pollster that I’ve ever seen. The poll, by the respected firm Research 2000, was slammed by Kirk’s pollster for its sponsor, partisan Democratic blog DailyKos, and for its methodology.

Here’s the “executive summary” from McLaughlin & Associates…

The ultra left-wing Web site Daily Kos commissioned a poll by Research 2000, which was conducted in Illinois’ 10th Congressional District from 9/30-10/1. The survey was flawed on three levels. First, the survey over-sampled voters age 18-29 while under-sampling voters 60+. Second, the survey over-sampled Democrats and Independents while under-sampling Republicans. Third, the survey was intentionally conducted on the Jewish High Holy Day of Rosh HaShanah that would exclude observant Jewish Democratic voters who lean more toward Kirk than average Democrats.

* I contacted Research 2000’s president, Del Ali, yesterday. Ali seemed shocked at the McLaughlin’s allegations, and wouldn’t respond to some of the harsher language in the McLaughlin press release, which included this particularly nasty passage from Kirk’s pollster…

It’s no surprise that DailyKos, which has come under attack by Democrats like Harold Ford Jr. and Lanny Davis for anti-Israel and anti-Semitic content, chose to conduct its poll on the Jewish High Holy Day of Rosh HaShanah. The 10th District is almost 20 percent Jewish – one of the larger Jewish districts in the nation. In addition to being disrespectful, the poll excluded observant Jewish voters who tend to vote for Mark Kirk more than average Democrats. In our last survey, Kirk did 25 percent better among Jewish voters than a typical Republican.

* It seemed obvious to me that the Kirk campaign was trying to stir up a hornet’s nest, so I temporarily ignored the McLaughlin response while I figured out how to touch this delicate topic.

On the merits, however, Ali staunchly defended his likely voter screens, charged that McLaughlin had “way undersampled” young voters in McLaughlin’s brushfire poll of just 300 respondents and claimed that too many pollsters today were using outdated polling models designed in the early 1980s.

Kos, himself, was far more blunt in his reaction to McLaughlin’s charges of anti-Semitism…

The timing of the poll was mentioned in our post announcing the poll, but unlike the hyperventilating Kirk campaign, we argue that the timing depressed Democratic-leaning voters that would support Seals, rather than Kirk. While Kirk may have some Jewish support, that community is still Democratic leaning and will deliver a majority of its support to the Democrat this November. Arguing that excluding some Jewish voters is actually an anti-semitic ploy to depress Kirk’s numbers is laughable. And desperate.

But let’s thank the Kirk campaign for 1) betraying their insecurities. No campaign goes nuclear on a poll they consider to be an outlier; and 2) giving the poll higher visibility. These things have a habit of falling through the media cracks. Thanks to their outsized freakout, they’ve created the sort of conflict that will ensure a higher profile for the results.

They are freaked out, that much is clear

* And now a new poll conducted for the hugely respected publication RollCall shows Mark Kirk trailing the Democrat Seals…

In Illinois’ 10th district, marketing consultant Dan Seals (D) led Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 52 percent to 44 percent. [emphasis added]

* More bad news for Kirk from the RollCall poll and a possible explanation for Seals’ apparent surge…

In the SurveyUSA poll, Obama led McCain in the district 62 percent to 36 percent — a margin that’s 20 points greater than Sen. John Kerry’s (D-Mass.) margin over Bush in the 2004 White House election.

* And in perhaps the greatest blow to Kirk’s overheated argument, RollCall’s pollster, SurveyUSA, used the same partisan makeup that was used by Kos’ pollster…

Kirk’s pollster also took issue with the partisan makeup of the Research 2000 poll — which was similar to the partisan makeup of the SurveyUSA poll conducted for Roll Call. Kirk’s own polls have shown him with a substantial lead over Seals.

So, to summarize, the anti-Semitic argument used by the Kirk campaign was backwards. SurveyUSA polled after the Jewish holiday and came up with much stronger numbers for Dan Seals. RollCall’s pollster also used a similar partisan breakdown used by Kos’ pollster, which undercuts the Kirk claim that the Kos poll was inherently flawed and out of whack.

* SurveyUSA details…

Poll of 623 likely voters taken Oct. 4-5. 3.9-point margin of error.

* Related…

* Dan Seals says he raised $700,000 in funds in 3rd quarter

* Kirk up in campaign money race

* Ozinga, Halvorson debate at ISU cordial

* Foster, Oberweis clash on bailout package

* 18th Congressional District candidates square off in debate

* Schafer campaigns outside debate

* Bean, Greenberg square off on energy