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Monday, Feb 4, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Daily Kos has the latest polling in Super Tuesday states for Democrats. Obama appears to be gaining almost everywhere. But Lynn Sweet has a memo from Obama campaign manager David Plouffe which attempts to lower expectations.

* Taegan Goddard wraps up the Republican polls.

* Josh Marshall looks at polling in early voting states. Mark Blumenthal issues his 4 cautions on Super Tuesday polling. Trendlines, etc. can be found here.

* Larry takes Illinois NOW to task for not telling the truth about those “Present” votes here and here. A bit of bad language, so beware.

* This is an interesting look, if self-promotional, about SMS advertising, the latest trend in political campaigning…

Limbo today releases a report showing how voters’ attitudes and behaviors are influenced through mobile advertising. In January 2008, Limbo ran SMS advertising campaigns for leading Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, delivering over one million SMS impressions across the two campaigns. The results suggest that SMS advertising provides a powerful tool for candidates to change consumer attitudes and voting behavior.

* I can’t find it online yet, but Greg Hinz at Crain’s takes a look ahead in case Obama wins or is named to the ticket and wins as VP…

African-Americans are this governor’s most loyal, solid base. U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., D-Chicago, probably is the best-positioned black official to fill a Senate vacancy, and he’s been campaigning around the country for Barack. But Mr. Jackson and Illinois Senate Majority Leader Emil Jones Jr. are not best buds, and right now the guv really needs Emil.

U.S. Rep. Schakowsky, from Evanston, has maintained good relations with this governor and, like him, is a liberal populist. “If Barack were president,” she allows, “I’d be very interested in that Senate seat.” Moving her across the rotunda would make U.S. Rep. Rahm Emanuel the unquestioned big cheese in the city’s House delegation.

Three statewide Democrats also likely would be considered: Attorney General Lisa Madigan, Comptroller Dan Hynes and Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. But the first ain’t gonna happen, given Mr. Blagojevich’s war with her father, House Speaker Michael Madigan. Mr. Hynes isn’t much more popular with Rod’s team. Mr. Giannoulias is awfully young at age 31, but he’s campaigning really hard for something lately and is an Obama protégé (and basketball buddy).

The selection also could be someone from left field, like Downstate Blagojevich loyalist Jay Hoffman, the guv’s man in the state House.

Or how about way, way, way left field: Rod Blagojevich. You laugh, but no law would prevent him from appointing himself. Mr. Seniors-ride-free has pulled wackier stunts.

* On to government news…

In ominous news for taxpayers, the fiscal difficulty continues to worsen at pension funds that cover Chicago and other government workers in the metropolitan area.

The area’s 10 big government pension funds now face $18.7 billion in unfunded liabilities, according to a report released Monday morning by the Civic Federation, a watchdog group. The deficit is more than five times the figure of just a decade ago, and about six times the size of the city’s annual operating budget.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Poll Results (use all caps in password)

Monday, Feb 4, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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A whiff of panic among Republicans?

Monday, Feb 4, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Saturday’s post had excerpts from the Tribune’s presidential poll of Illinoisans…

The survey found Obama, a first-term Illinois senator from Chicago, with the support of 55 percent of likely Democratic primary voters. Clinton, a two-term New York senator born in Chicago and raised in suburban Park Ridge, had 24 percent.

On the Republican side, McCain, a veteran Arizona senator, had the backing of 43 percent of likely GOP primary voters in the state, compared with 20 percent for former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, 15 percent for former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and 4 percent for Rep. Ron Paul of Texas.

* And Sunday’s Tribune had a long piece about local GOP anxieties…

“I think there’s a small base of Republicans that are focusing on this presidential contest and the more independent-minded are not going to be voting in the Republican Party with favorite-son Barack Obama on the Democratic ballot,” said state Sen. Dan Rutherford (R-Chenoa), the Illinois chairman of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s campaign. “I think you’ll be finding a low Republican turnout.” […]

“I’m getting calls from committeemen all over the place. They say, ‘We’ve got nothing going to keep our Republicans from voting for Barack,’” said state Rep. Angelo “Skip” Saviano of Elmwood Park, a member of the Republican State Central Committee.

* More presidential crud, compiled by Kevin…

* Obama’s fundraising collides with his rhetoric

* Clinton health plan may mean tapping pay

* Illinois NOW Tries to Lie It’s Way Out

* Romney lumps McCain in with Obama, Clinton

* Ready for Super Tuesday

* Candidates spend time elsewhere despite state’s early primary

* DuPage hears ‘straight talk’

* McCain Rally

* McCain urges conservatives to get aboard

* Romney visits DuPage County

* Obama sees McCain as boosting his hopes for Dem nomination

* Obama airing TV commercial during Super Bowl in select markets

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax

Monday, Feb 4, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Tribune has two new polls *** Updated X2 ***

Saturday, Feb 2, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The excitement from the presidential campaign has sucked all the oxygen out of other races. As subscribers know (and will learn again Monday) this state’s attorney’s race isn’t the only Cook County or Chicago campaign with huge numbers of undecideds with just days to go before the election…

Just days before Tuesday’s primary, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows a wide-open race for the Democratic nomination for Cook County state’s attorney with none of the six contenders in the increasingly bitter battle able to claim support from more than a fraction of voters.

Almost half of the likely Democratic voters surveyed, 44 percent, said they were undecided about who should be the nominee for the opening created when State’s Atty. Dick Devine decided not to seek re-election.

Cook County Commissioner Larry Suffredin held a narrow edge, with support from 17 percent of voters, the poll showed. Chicago Alds. Tom Allen (38th) and Howard Brookins (21st) each had 11 percent, as did Anita Alvarez, the No. 3 official in Devine’s office. Devine’s top assistant, Robert Milan, had 3 percent and Tommy Brewer, a defense lawyer and former FBI agent, had 2 percent.

The poll of 404 likely voters, conducted Tuesday through Thursday, had an error margin of 5 percentage points.

404 likely voters? Mother Tribune cheaped out. Still, the mathematical probability that Suffredin leads his three closest competitors is 98.9 percent.

* Meanwhile, speaking of the presidentials…

Favorite-son Sen. Barack Obama and Arizona Sen. John McCain each hold a better than 2-to-1 edge over their closest presidential rivals entering the Illinois primary, but many voters say they’re still undecided or could change their mind before casting a ballot Tuesday, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows. […]

The survey found Obama, a first-term Illinois senator from Chicago, with the support of 55 percent of likely Democratic primary voters. Clinton, a two-term New York senator born in Chicago and raised in suburban Park Ridge, had 24 percent.

On the Republican side, McCain, a veteran Arizona senator, had the backing of 43 percent of likely GOP primary voters in the state, compared with 20 percent for former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, 15 percent for former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and 4 percent for Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. […]

If the state’s Democrats and Republicans can agree on one thing, it’s that a majority of them believe that jobs and the economy are the most important issue. Asked their top two issues of concern, 62 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of Republicans listed the economy and its effect on employment.

Democrats cited affordable health care and the Iraq war as their second and third top concerns. Republicans made illegal immigration the issue of next highest concern behind the economy, with the Iraq war also reflected third.

…Adding… I don’t think I’ve ever seen a better campaign video that wasn’t actually created by a campaign…

* UPDATE 2: More Super Tuesday polls are here. Obama up in California, gaining in New Jersey (where he was getting clobbered a week ago).

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