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A quick run-through of the down-ballot statewide polling

Monday, Sep 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Let’s take a brief look at some Sun-Times/We Ask America poll results, shall we?

* No surprise…

Wow…

Over 40 in Chicago? Holy moly, a stomping appears to be coming.

* No surprise…

Interesting…

As I told subscribers earlier today, if Cross can keep himself around 20 in Chicago, he likely wins.

* Hovering just above 50 isn’t great, but her opponent has no money so he can’t do much about it anyway…

Whoa…

The Madigan brand has taken a serious beating.

* Compare AG Madigan’s performance among independents with Jesse White’s…

  29 Comments      


Poll: A three-point spread

Monday, Sep 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From We Ask America

* The Sun-Times has campaign react

“As people tune into the election, it’s encouraging they are recognizing that Gov. Quinn is making the tough decisions and getting the job done to move Illinois forward,” Quinn campaign spokeswoman Brooke Anderson said. “While there’s more work to do, Illinois is moving in the right direction under the governor’s leadership as evidenced by the fact that unemployment is at its lowest point in six years. Unemployment is down and jobs are up, and our economy is making a comeback.

“We expect this will continue to be a very competitive race, particularly since billionaire Republican Bruce Rauner will spare no cost to try and buy the election. It looks like the more voters find out about the real Bruce Rauner — and his plan for Illinois that benefits the very wealthy while hurting working families — the less interested they are in voting for him,” Anderson said. […]

Rauner campaign spokesman Mike Schrimpf steered clear Sunday of offering any sense of what might be behind the apparent tightening in the campaign and whether internal Rauner polling is showing the same trend.

“It’s clear a large majority of Illinoisans are ready for a change after 100 years of Cullerton, Madigan, Quinn and Blagojevich. Voters know Pat Quinn has failed and Bruce is the only candidate they can trust to clean up Springfield and bring back Illinois,” Schrimpf said in a prepared statement.

All of a sudden, the Quinnsters love We Ask America. Imagine that.

* Related…

* Libertarian could help tip Illinois governor race

  29 Comments      


Davis’ poll shows him leading big

Monday, Sep 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* RollCall

Freshman Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Ill., a top Democratic target this cycle, had a 19-point lead over his opponent with six weeks to go until Election Day, according to a poll conducted for his campaign and provided first to CQ Roll Call.

Davis led Democratic rival Ann Callis, 55 percent to 36 percent, in the survey of the 13th District conducted by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies. Just 7 percent of voters were undecided.

The poll found atmospherics in the district are also stacked against Callis, making it tougher for her to make up ground in the short amount of time left until the election.

President Barack Obama’s approval rating stood at just 38 percent in this Springfield-based seat in his home state.

At the same time, the gubernatorial contest in the Land of Lincoln could also drag Callis down.

Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn badly trailed Republican gubernatorial nominee Bruce Rauner, with 30 percent to Rauner’s 47 percent, according to the 13th District survey.

* The polling memo…

The political environment in the 13th District is favorable to Republican candidates.

    Just 24% of voters say the country is headed in the right direction; nearly three-in- four voters (71%) say the country is off on the wrong track.

    President Obama has a dismal job approval rating in the district. Just 38% of voters approve of his performance as president, while 58% disapprove – 45% of them strongly.

    The Republican leads by eight points (45%-37%) on the generic Congressional ballot, and voters prefer a Republican who will be a check and balance to Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats to a Democrat who will help Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats pass their agenda by a 14-point margin: 53% to 39%.

    The gubernatorial race is not competitive in the 13th District: Republican Bruce Rauner leads Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn 47% to 30%, while libertarian Chad Grimm clocks in at 10%.

Rodney Davis has a significant name ID and image advantage over Ann Callis.

    Davis’s name ID is 85%, and his image among voters is 41% favorable/21% unfavorable.

    Fewer than two-in-three voters (63%) have heard of Ann Callis, and her image is polarized: 19% of voters have a favorable impression of her, while 17% have an unfavorable impression of her.

  20 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition: Crosstabs, mail, TV buys

Monday, Sep 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Monday, Sep 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

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« NEWER POSTS PREVIOUS POSTS »
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Catching up with the congressionals
* Some recent AG Raoul news
* It’s just a bill
* Call and response
* 340B Helps The Most Vulnerable Patients: Infants With Rare Diseases – Support HB 2371 SA 2
* Quentin Fulks open thread
* Chaos Coming July 1: Illinois’ Radical Credit Card Law Could Upend Everyday Purchases
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* Good morning!
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* Live coverage and live comptroller's race results
* *** LIVE *** Declared primary winners
* Yesterday's stories

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