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Another poll shows tightening US Senate contest

Friday, Sep 5, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* After showing Democrats like Pat Quinn and Mike Frerichs closing the gap in recent days, We Ask America is showing the opposite happening in the US Senate race…

State Sen. Jim Oberweis trails three-term U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin by 10 percentage points in a new Reboot Illinois poll.

Oberweis, a Sugar Grove Republican best known statewide by the family dairy company that bears his name, had trailed Durbin by 13 and 15 points in Reboot Illinois polls on June 12 and July 30. An Aug. 27 poll by the Chicago Sun-Times’ Early & Often political portal, also conducted by We Ask America, found Oberweis trailing Durbin by 7.3 percentage points, 47.8 percent to Oberweis’ 40.5 percent.

The Reboot Illinois poll, conducted by We Ask America on Sept. 4, is based on automated phone calls with a random sample of 1,014 likely Illinois voters statewide, including 28 percent of responses from cell phone contacts. It has a margin of error of +/-3.08 percentage points and party split of 38 percent Democrats, 26 percent Republicans and 36 percent independents.

“After conducting three U.S. Senate polls in 10 days, the results have varied from a 7-point to a 10-point lead for Democrat Dick Durbin,” said Gregg Durham, chief operating officer of We Ask America. “While these recent polls show gains in favor of challenger Republican Jim Oberweis, there is still a lot of time left for game-changing movement.”

Sen. Durbin did himself no favors by refusing to release his own poll results the other day.

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Poll: Cross down to single digits

Friday, Sep 5, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* It looks like suburban Cook and Chicago are reverting to form. As we saw earlier this week, Gov. Pat Quinn is now slightly ahead in suburban Cook in a We Ask America poll, the first time that’s happened all year.

And a new We Ask America poll also shows significant tightening in the state treasurer’s race. Rep. Tom Cross’ lead has slipped from 21 11 down to just six points. He’s now leading 43-37.

The sample was more Democratic than the firm’s recent Quinn poll, which could account for some of the slippage. Cross did around as well in the new poll as in the July poll with Downstate and collar county voters. The real changes are in Chicago and Cook…

* Chicago, July: Frerichs 52, Cross 25, Undecided 23

* Chicago, September: Frerichs 57, Cross 17, Skopek 4, Undecided 22

* Suburban Cook, July: Cross 45, Frerichs 34, Undecided 20

* Suburban Cook, September: Frerichs 44, Cross 36, Skopek 5, Undecided 15

Most of those Chicago undecideds will break toward Frerichs, and so will a substantial amount of the suburban Cook vote.

So, Frerichs is likely in the hunt, and that million dollars he’s planning to spend on TV won’t hurt at all.

* Meanwhile, Tom Kacich had a fascinating angle on the endorsement of Cross by the Illinois Chamber this week…

Cross, a state representative and the former leader of the Illinois House Republicans, Thursday renewed his pledge as treasurer to prepare a quarterly report on the state’s financial condition, to establish a government integrity unit in his office and to require the Legislature to pass a balanced budget. If it doesn’t, he said he would file a lawsuit.

“We’re in unprecedented times. We’ve seen from a financial standpoint a state that’s close to collapse and I think we need to use these offices in nontraditional ways,” Cross said.

He said he wouldn’t hesitate to file suit if a Republican Legislature passed or a Republican governor signed a budget that was out of balance. He declined to comment on whether he thought Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner’s budget proposal was balanced.

Emphasis added for obvious reasons. No way could Cross back up Rauner’s numbers without losing all credibility.

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Friday, Sep 5, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

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