About those new polls
Wednesday, Jul 30, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
Gov. Pat Quinn on Tuesday dismissed a recent poll giving his Republican opponent Bruce Rauner a 14-point lead as “phony-baloney” and suggested it’s a bit early to write his political obituary. […]
“A lot of these polls are supported by my opponents supporters, so you gotta be careful there.” […]
Madeleine Doubek, chief operating officer of Reboot Illinois, said she stands behind the poll and its methodology.
“I am completely comfortable with the results. The firm doing polling for us is reputable,” Doubek said.
She said the race is in its early stages and cautioned that the poll only represents a snapshot in time.
We got a lot of comments yesterday (many of them deleted) flat-out claiming that We Ask America is intentionally altering results because the company is owned by the Illinois Manufacturers Association, which has endorsed Bruce Rauner.
That’s ridiculous. I’ve worked with that firm a long time. No way are they doing that. The Quinnbots are hereby on notice to stop it right now or face permanent banishment.
* But the governor’s campaign is clearly not happy with the new WAA poll and sent this along yesterday…
Applying 2010 Exit Poll Party ID to today’s crosstabs gives
Rauner 42.83
Quinn 38.73
Undec 18.44
* And there are some other polls out there. For instance, a CBS/New York Times YouGov online poll found this…
Rauner 46
Quinn 43
Other 2
Won’t vote 6
Not sure 1
* As can be expected, the move to an online poll has produced some sharp criticisms, but also some praise. Washington Post pollster Scott Clement…
Amy Walter, national editor of the Cook Political Report…
* Another poll taken by Mike Mckeon’s outfit found this…
Rauner 40
Quinn 34
Undecided 26
But that poll also found Attorney General Lisa Madigan leading her totally unknown GOP rival by just nine points 46-37.
And the YouGov poll had Sen. Dick Durbin leading Jim Oberweis by just 48-41.
* Meanwhile, in the mayor’s race…
The survey of 600 likely Chicago voters was conducted July 24-27 by San Francisco-based pollster David Binder Research, a firm known its work for President Barack Obama and numerous West Coast politicians, including mayors of Los Angeles and San Francisco.
In a head-to-head matchup, the poll found that 45 percent of those questioned are committed to or leaning toward Mr. Emanuel, compared with 33 percent for Ms. Lewis. That’s a near reversal of a We Ask America poll taken for the Chicago Sun-Times this month that showed the mayor losing to Ms. Lewis by 9 points.
Just 27 percent of those sampled said they were “certain” to vote for Mr. Emanuel. And 22 percent are undecided.
