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Yes, they support the concept, but will it drive votes one way or the other?

Thursday, Feb 13, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Progress Illinois reports on a recent statewide Public Policy Polling survey on unemployment benefits…

In the poll of 506 registered Illinois voters, 63 percent said Congress should reinstate the unemployment benefits, which expired last year, while 31 percent were opposed to the idea. Of those in favor of reinstating the unemployment assistance, 83 percent were Democrats and 44 percent were Republicans.

OK, it’s pretty popular. But is it really an issue that will drive votes one way or another? Meh…

Of those polled, 40 percent said Kirk’s vote makes them less likely to support the senator in the future, while 31 percent think they would be more likely to support him. Twenty-four percent of respondents cited that Kirk’s vote makes “no difference” on whether or not they would support him in the future, while 5 percent said they were not sure.

That 40 percent number isn’t really high enough to matter all that much.

* And if you look at the crosstabs, just 33 percent of African-Americans and 37 percent of independents said they’d be less likely to vote for Sen. Kirk because of that vote.

* I did find this of some interest, however…

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Kirk’s job performance?

Approve ………………………………………… 28%
Disapprove …………………………………….. 32%
Not sure ………………………………………… 39%

He was out of the public eye for so long after his stroke that he doesn’t seem to be on a whole lot of voters’ radar screens. 48 percent of women have no opinion of him, as do 44 percent of Democrats.

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Poll has Oberweis leading 52-15

Thursday, Feb 13, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Tribune’s poll of Republican primary voters has a wholly unsurprising result for the US Senate race…

* Jim Oberweis: 52%
* Doug Truax: 15%
* Undecided: 32%

* From the Trib…

Though he has yet to spend much money this time out, Oberweis has 88 percent name recognition among Republican voters. That’s due to not only the family’s namesake dairy stores, but also the millions of his own money that Oberweis spent during one campaign for governor and two U.S. Senate bids that date to 2002. Oberweis also lost special and general election bids for Congress before breaking through with a state Senate win in November 2012. […]

Despite that, the poll indicated little voter fatigue among Republicans over Oberweis’ ambitious and frequent attempts to win public office and the sometimes controversial gaffes he committed along the way. Overall, 40 percent viewed Oberweis favorably while 9 percent looked upon him unfavorably. Another 39 percent had no opinion of him. […]

Truax has yet to introduce himself to many Republican voters — 52 percent said they have never heard of the military veteran and a managing partner and co-owner of Oak Brook-based Veritas Risk Services. Of those who said they were familiar with Truax, 36 percent had no opinion of him while only 11 percent viewed him favorably and 1 percent had an unfavorable view.

The Truax campaign has been almost solely about the candidate’s public speaking engagements. He’s everywhere and he’s received some local party support for his efforts. That often gives candidates the sense that they’re gaining some traction. But in a race like this, you gotta get your name out there.

If the choice is between a guy they know and someone they’ve never even heard of (who could be anybody, even a disguised Democrat, for that matter), voters will almost always go with the guy they know. And since Truax has almost zero cash on hand, he has no resources to get himself known.

It’s gonna take a miracle for Truax to pull this one off.

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