* Harold could destroy her political future if she winds up getting thumped this badly next March…

A recent poll of Republican voters in the 13th Congressional District gives incumbent Rep. Rodney Davis a 4-to-1 lead over his Republican challenger, Urbana attorney Erika Harold.

The poll of 859 Republicans, taken Oct. 10, showed that Davis was the choice of 63.15 percent of the likely Republican voters, to 15.95 percent for Harold. About 21 percent of those polled were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.34 percent.

A poll taken exactly four months earlier, on June 10, by the same Springfield polling firm, We Ask America, found that Republicans favored Davis, 53.55 percent to 16.38 percent.

“This is going to be a very tough road for a challenger in a Republican primary,” said Gregg Durham, the CEO of We Ask America. “Republicans seem to be favoring the incumbent, and for a challenger with limited means who is not willing to throw bombs — I think she’s more or less said she’s going to run a positive campaign — absent a major scandal, it’s hard to find a path to success for her.” […]

“I wouldn’t suggest right now that these will be the final numbers,” he said of the poll, “but I would suggest that I’ve never seen someone with these type of numbers win, absent a major scandal.”

Durham is spot on.