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Thursday, Dec 19, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From pollster Dave Fako’s latest client newsletter…

Many of our recent messages have discussed the changes being make in the public opinion research profession, adapting to the new communication habits of potential respondents to surveys and how to assess the quality, reliability and accuracy of polls. In these messages we have shared information from Pew about changes in their methods and the status of polling.

Well, Pew has put out another great article, which details some topics we have written about too, particularly methodological disclosure, cell phones and the use of online / Internet methods. We strongly recommend it to anybody who is a consumer of public opinion research or has an interest in the profession.

* From that Pew story…

Is polling broken?

Here’s a myth that we can set aside right at the start: Polling is not “broken.” Well-designed and carefully administered surveys still work, and there’s plenty of empirical evidence to back this up.

Even outside the U.S., there is substantial evidence that polling hasn’t witnessed a substantial decline in accuracy. A comprehensive review of polling accuracy published in 2018 found that “relying on vote intention polls from more than 200 elections in 32 countries over a period of more than 70 years, there is no evidence that poll errors have increased over time….”

But there are developing issues, so go read the rest.

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Poll has Mary Miller with the lead in Shimkus district, but undecideds are at 63 percent

Monday, Dec 16, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Remington Research Group poll taken in the 15th Congressional District December 10-11 for Republican congressional candidate Mary Miller, (no relation) who’s running in a crowded primary to replace retiring GOP US Rep. John Shimkus. The poll of 810 likely 2020 GOP primary voters has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent. These are all interactive voice response calls…

Q1: What is your opinion of Donald Trump?

Favorable: 87%
Unfavorable: 8%
No opinion: 5%

Q2: What is your opinion of J.B. Pritzker?

Favorable: 6%
Unfavorable: 76%
No opinion: 18%

Q3: What is your opinion of John Shimkus?

Favorable: 52%
Unfavorable: 20%
No opinion: 28%

Q7: Possible candidates in the 2020 Republican Primary Election for United States Congress are Mary Miller, Darren Duncan, Kerry Wolff, Charles Ellington, Kent Gray, and Kimberly Wade. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Mary Miller: 16%
Darren Duncan: 7%
Kerry Wolff: 7%
Charles Ellington: 3%
Kent Gray: 3%
Kimberly Wade: 1%
Undecided: 63%

* Meanwhile, the leadership PAC for the House Freedom Caucus has endorsed Miller, which should be a big help in that primary. The House Freedom Fund has also endorsed Jeanne Ives.

Miller is the spouse of Rep. Chris Miller (R-Oakland), a member of the Eastern Bloc. I met her once and she has some chops. We’ll see what she can do at this level, though.

* Darren Duncan may also be one to watch…

Conservative Vermilion County Treasurer Darren Duncan, a seventh-generation farmer from Rossville and advocate for reduced spending and common-sense government is formally launching his campaign for the GOP nomination for the 15th Congressional District in the March 2020 primary.

Duncan, 48, made his formal announcement in a campaign video released this morning and in a speech to Vermilion County Republicans in Danville. […]

Duncan said he wants to help President Trump pass a conservative agenda through Congress that benefits rural areas and small communities throughout Illinois.

“I fully support President Trump’s USMCA trade deal with Canada and Mexico that will boost access to American farm and manufactured goods to our neighboring countries,” said Duncan, “and I stand with President Trump in his efforts to stop bad actors on the world stage taking advantage of our current trade system.”

Kerry Wolff is vice president of the Altamont School Board and has been in the solar power industry for the past few years.

Kent Gray is a goner.

* Kimberly Wade could be an interesting candidate if she survives the challenge to her petitions by Eastern Bloc Rep. Brad Halbrook. She filed on the last possible day.

Wade founded the Kids Shouldn’t Have Cancer Foundation and her work has often been featured by US Rep. Rodney Davis.

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Fun with numbers

Monday, Dec 2, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Hilarious…

The New York political consulting firm, MACIAS PR, has released the first political poll for Illinois’ Seventh Congressional District, revealing more than half of all Democratic voters believe Rep. Danny Davis should be fired. The poll also found 77 percent of registered Democratic voters are concerned over the source of Rep. Davis’ campaign funds.

The phone poll was conducted November 11th-21st and has a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percent. The Seventh Congressional District encompasses all of downtown Chicago going south to West Englewood, north to Old Town, east to the lake, and west through Garfield Park, Austin, Oak Park, and extending to Hillside.

A poll taken over eleven days of 236 registered Democratic voters? And check out the questions…

1. What is the most important issue to you? Press, 1) Healthcare [49%] 2) Criminal Justice Reform [24%] 3) Education [27%]

2. Your Congressman has missed a vote, every other week - should he be fired? Press, 1) Yes [52%] 2) No [47%]?

3. Your Congressman has received the super majority of his campaign funding from special interest groups. Does this concern you? “Yes” [77%] or “No” [22%].

Wait. No mention of Danny Davis’ name? This isn’t exactly an open seat. Davis was elected to Congress in 1996. He’s a well-known entity.

Also, I couldn’t get a definitive response about how many landlines and mobile phones they called. And no racial demographics were provided.

* So, who’s behind this? Back to the press release…

The most recent FEC filing report also found Davis was having a difficult time raising money against a first-time Congressional candidate, Kristine Schanbacher, who outraised Davis approximately 3-1 and raised more money than all of the reported candidates combined. Schanbacher raised $166,172.34 in the most recent amended FEC filing report compared to $57,125 raised by Davis.

$166K isn’t exactly a ton of money in an expensive media market like Chicago and I’m pretty sure Davis can raise more cash.

Do better.

…Adding… As a commenter points out, as of 11:28 this morning Schanbacher still hadn’t filed her petitions.

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