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Poll: Just 38 percent of Chicago voters oppose CTU strike

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

Just days before Chicago Public Schools teachers could walk off the job, a new ABC7/Chicago Sun-Times poll shows nearly half of the people surveyed support a strike.

The survey found 49% of voters either strongly or somewhat support a walkout, while 38% are opposed. […]

“Most people don’t want strikes in general,” said ABC7 political analyst Laura Washington, “The union has done a very good job in making their case. They’ve got a number of other public unions that are supporting them.”

* Sun-Times…

The survey was done Friday and Saturday with automated telephone interviews of 618 Chicago voters.

The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, offers a lens into the public relations war that has been waged in recent weeks by the city and Chicago Teachers Union to win the hearts and minds of city taxpayers and CPS parents. Winning public support is paramount as negotiations come to a head and pressure mounts on the two sides to work out an agreement. […]

CPS parents, who made up a quarter of the voters polled, were more likely to support a strike – and to blame Lightfoot for the ordeal. More than half supported a strike and nearly one in five parents placed responsibility personally on the mayor. […]

The freshman mayor’s approval rating stands at 54%, with 15% expressing disapproval. Almost a third of voters say they’re not sure what to think of Lightfoot’s performance. […]

A few months before the 2012 teachers’ strike, Emanuel’s job approval rating stood at 52% with 29% disapproving, according to a Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll.

…Adding… Some commenters have asked about support for the 2012 CTU strike. This poll was taken after the teachers walked out…

Conducted by We Ask America, the poll of 1,344 voting Chicago households asked, “In general, do you approve or disapprove of the Chicago Teachers Union’s decision to go on strike?” 55.5 percent said they approved and 40 percent disapproved. Another 4 percent had no opinion. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent,” according to Rich Miller, the report’s publisher.

From that day’s Capitol Fax…

Asked who they thought was “most to blame” for the strike, just over 34 percent pointed their finger at Mayor Rahm Emanuel, while 29 percent blamed the Chicago Teachers Union and 19 percent blamed the school board. In other words, a solid majority blames management, one way or the other.

Whites blamed the union more than the full sample, at 41 percent. People without school-age children blamed the union a bit more than the full sample, 31 percent. And 39 percent of those with children in private schools blamed the union.

But almost a majority, 48 percent, of Latinos blamed Mayor Emanuel, as did 33 percent of African-Americans, 42 percent of parents of public school children and 40 percent of parents of school-age children. All age brackets except those aged 55-64 blamed Emanuel the most, with 50 percent of 18-24 year olds pointing their finger at hizzoner, as well as 41 percent of 35-44 year olds.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Campaign update

Thursday, Oct 10, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

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The current trend is not his friend

Thursday, Oct 10, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I always say one of the reasons I love covering politics is because things can change very fast. Here’s what could turn out to be a prime example from an NRCC press release dated October 3rd entitled “RIP Betsy’s campaign”…

Hi there –

Socialist loser* Betsy Dirksen Londrigan hopped back on board the impeachment train!

The only thing worse for Illinois families than a socialist is a socialist so consumed by their hatred of President Trump that they cannot get anything else done.

NOTE: New polling shows nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of voters in Republican-held battleground seats think Democrats are too focused on impeaching President Trump.

NRCC Comment: “Betsy Londrigan’s hatred of President Trump and obsession with impeachment has already marked the beginning of the end of her campaign.” -NRCC Spokeswoman Carly Atchison

*According to The New York Times, Betsy Dirksen is a socialist loser. (U.S. House Election Results 2018, The New York Times, January 28, 2019).

* From that NRCC poll referenced above, which was conducted September 28-30…

In NRCC target seats, voters oppose impeachment: 44% support –47% oppose. In Republican-held battleground seats voters oppose impeachment:46%-49%.

That’s an awfully darned narrow margin to be confidently predicting the death of a campaign. But, like I say, things can always change. And that could be happening right now.

* From a Fox News poll conducted October 6-8…

A new high of 51 percent wants Trump impeached and removed from office, another 4 percent want him impeached but not removed, and 40 percent oppose impeachment altogether. In July, 42 percent favored impeachment and removal, while 5 percent said impeach but don’t remove him, and 45 percent opposed impeachment.

Since July, support for impeachment increased among voters of all stripes: up 11 points among Democrats, 5 points among Republicans and 3 among independents. Support also went up among some of Trump’s key constituencies, including white evangelical Christians (+5 points), white men without a college degree (+8), and rural whites (+10).

Among voters in swing counties (where Hillary Clinton and Trump were within 10 points in 2016), support for impeachment increased to 52 percent, up from 42 percent in July. [Emphasis added.]

* Public sentiment is moving historically fast…

I'll go ahead and post this @pewresearch piece for the 100th time.https://t.co/0jCxDs83YY pic.twitter.com/VHMZCNEeu1

— Kevin M. Kruse (@KevinMKruse) October 9, 2019

* Unlike Downstater Rodney Davis, who hopped all the way on board the Trump train and has been actively fundraising off Londrigan’s support for an impeachment inquiry, former state Rep. Jeanne Ives’ suburban congressional campaign has taken a more focused approach…

“If [Democrats] really want to move forward with an impeachment inquiry, let’s have a vote, Nancy Pelosi. Give Republicans a chance to subpoena testimony, as well…”

…Adding… Rodney Davis is a former Shimkus staffer…

Just hours after the decision to leave Syrian Kurds to fend for themselves against Turkey, Illinois Congressman John Shimkus calls the President’s decision “terrible and despicable.”

Shimkus goes on to tell KMOX’s Mark Reardon that he told staff “to take my name off the I support Donald Trump list” and that he is “saddened for the Kurdish people.”

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Maybe take it with just a touch of salt

Wednesday, Oct 9, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* News-Gazette editorial…

Illinois may not be flying high in its standing with the public, but Gov. JB. Pritzker is.

A new poll — dubbed the Illinois Issues Survey — conducted by the University of Illinois-Springfield Survey Research Office shows that nearly six out of 10 state residents have a positive view of how Pritzker is conducting himself as governor.

OK, first of all, this is an online poll, so I wouldn’t jump to any hard conclusions just yet.

Secondly, I’ve heard some GOP grumbling about how the partisan universe in the Illinois Issues Survey is way more favorable to Gov. Pritzker than other polls: 53 percent Democratic vs. 30 percent Republican. That’s a +23D universe. By contrast, Gallup’s polling last year had Illinois at +16D. The Simon Poll’s most recent survey this spring had Illinois at +12D. That spring poll had Pritzker’s job approval at 40 and his disapproval at 38.

Even so, if you apply Gallup’s partisan makeup to the Illinois Issues Survey, you still get a 58 percent job approval rating for Pritzker. It’s a 57 percent approval rating if you apply the Simon Poll partisan universe.

According to the Illinois Issues Survey, Pritzker experienced a 14-point increase in his approval rating among Democrats vs. the Simon Poll, which is to be expected after the session he had. But he also saw an 18-point increase among independents (31 to 49) and more than a doubling of his approval rating among Republicans, which skyrocketed from 15 to 32. I dunno.

Again, this is an online poll and I’m not yet sold on that methodology.

* Illinois Public Radio…

A broad majority of Illinois voters support major changes to the state income tax, favoring a system where the wealthy pay more. That’s according to new survey data from NPR Illinois and the University of Illinois Springfield.

The survey says 67 percent of registered Illinois voters support a graduated income tax. That’s where people who earn more money pay a higher tax rate, and people who earn less pay a lower rate.

Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker made the proposal a centerpiece of both his campaign and his freshman legislative session. Given that, it’s not surprising the plan enjoys widest support among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic (79%). Next are non-leaning independents (59%), and finally Republicans and independents who lean Republican (49%).

Since the polling universe skews so high for Democrats, this is not a surprising result. Also, while the result is in line with several Simon Poll results over the years, support is now ten points higher than the 2018 Illinois Issues Survey.

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