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Thursday, Mar 22, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From March 11th…

Interested parties:

I expect to release final polling results before the election. In advance of the inevitable wailing and gnashing of teeth from whichever candidates are behind in the poll, let’s cut to the chase.

I checked. There are other organizations that have compared my final polling numbers in previous elections against both those of other polling companies and against the actual election results. I think you will find that our numbers stack up very well against both other companies and final election results.

These comparisons are of the final polling numbers, not polls done weeks or months before the election, before millions of dollars of advertising and endless campaigning change the numbers.

As some of you know, I began in the polling business more than thirty years ago with the late, great Mike McKeon as my mentor. To many who know about polling, McKeon was the gold standard for a long time when it came to polling in Illinois elections. I learned from the best.

I have no polling client in the Governor’s race, and indeed have never even met any of the major candidates of either party. I have no polling client in the Attorney General race, or the Cook County Assessor race. When I have a polling client for a released poll, I am not shy about saying so. Please allow the historical facts in the attachments to guide your decision about whether to cover or not cover my final polling results, not irrelevant garbage strewn about by whichever candidate wishes they had done better in the poll.

And as always I’m available to answer any questions.

Rod McCulloch
Victory Research

* His poll was released on March 18th, two days ahead of the election. I didn’t post it, tweet it or anything. Others did and some folks I know asked me why I didn’t. I had my reasons, but mainly I just didn’t feel right about it. Plus, I was told some off the record numbers from various people I trust (and their numbers all turned out to be incredibly accurate), so I figured I’d wait. If he was right, I’d apologize for not posting the polls. If he was wrong, I’d post his results…

In the final Illinois poll before the March 20th primary, Governor candidate J.B. Pritzker remains the front-runner to win the Democratic nomination, according to the poll. Pritzker holds a nearly six point lead (32.0-26.1%) over nearest competitor Chris Kennedy. State Senator Daniel Biss is third with 21.7%. Three other candidates combined for 3.8%.

Pritzker ended up winning 45-27-24. Not even close. Biss placed second. He got Kennedy almost right, though.

Glad I didn’t write about it.

* There was also this…

The race for Cook County board president is shaping up to be closer than expected, a new poll by Victory Research of 701 people from Cook County March 13-March 15 shows. The pollster is employed by candidate Bob Fioretti. Toni Preckwinkle: 42 percent. Bob Fioretti: 41 percent. Undecided: 17 percent

Preckwinkle won 61-39.

* Meanwhile, from March 19th…

The #IllinoisPrimary elections for attorney general will be far closer, with @KwameRaoul holding a small lead over @QuinnForIL on the Democratic side and @GaryForAG slightly edging @ErikaHarold on the Republican side.

— Change Research (@ChangePolls) March 20, 2018

I have no idea who those people are, so I didn’t share their “results” with you. And instead of losing by a small margin, Erika Harold won by 18 points.

Unless you totally trust the source, don’t fall for late polling results.

23 Comments

Lipinski roundup

Monday, Mar 19, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From an NBC News story about Congressman Dan Lipinski’s primary…

“I’ve done 25 or 30 races over the years, and I’ve never seen a party turn away from a lawmaker like this,” said Thom Serafin, a former Democratic consultant who is now an independent political analyst in Chicago.

Thom and I are old pals, but he may have forgotten about his friend US Sen. Alan Dixon, an old-style conservative Democrat who got outflanked on his left by Carol Moseley Braun.

* Also, this…

Blue Dog Democats expressed anger earlier this winter that the DCCC hadn’t come through with an endorsement for the incumbent. But Lipinski has since told the Washington Examiner he’s getting the committee’s support.

“And I would hope so,” Blue Dog Kurt Schrader said in the Speaker’s Lobby on Wednesday. “Why would members pay dues to the DCCC if they don’t have your back at the end of the day?”

The party apparatus itself hasn’t turned against the congressman. The DCCC is with him. The Cook County regular organization is with him. The Illinois AFL-CIO is with him. Some fellow party members have, however, turned against him.

* I hate stories like this..

In interviews with nearly a dozen Democrats, most said they are glad to have a real debate on issues in a district that has been virtually unchallenged for decades, including those who support Lipinski.

“We have not had a choice, a real choice, in at least 14 years,” said Newman supporter Mary Anne Quinlian. “Not having a choice makes everyone feel limited. That isn’t healthy.”

But Lipinski says progressive pressure may drive centrists like him away from the Democrats for good.

“I have seen the Democratic Party, unfortunately, push pro-life voters out of the party,” Lipinski said. “I have people come up to me and say, ‘I used to be a Democrat and because of the life issue, I can’t be a Democrat anymore.’ ”

“We interviewed nearly a dozen Democrats and the first person we quoted is a Newman supporter and the second is the congressman himself! Hooray!” Also, Ms. Quinlan is a gun control activist. And there are no quotes in that piece from any people who aren’t identified as supporters of one candidate or the other.

* Lynn Sweet gets it right…

• Of all the reasons challenger Marie Newman has mustered to defeat Rep. Dan Lipinski in their Democratic primary contest, calling him a “Trump Democrat” is potent political shorthand for turning out her vote.

• In pro-Lipinski direct mail pieces secretly financed by a donor or donors hiding under the name Americans Committed for Progress — it’s a phony organization — Lipinski is portrayed as anti-Trump, even though he hasn’t carved out a niche as standing up to an anti-Trump agenda Democrat.

Lipinski’s own direct mail pieces sets him up as “fighting” Trump health care cuts. That’s to gloss and try to mitigate Lipinski’s opposition to the creation of Obamacare.

• It’s almost a given in this Illinois Democratic primary. Strategists tell me hitting Trump tests well. That’s why so many Illinois Democrats are using Trump.

Lipinski’s American Conservatives Union lifetime rating is just 19.12 out of 100. That’s the highest of all Illinois Democrats, but Peter Roskam’s is 82.77.

* But, hey, ABC News, how are these “moderate” views in today’s Democratic Party?…

Lipinski has come under fire for moderate views that have often put him at odds with others in his party. Lipinski is one of the last pro-life Democrats in the House, and he voted against Obamacare. He did not publicly endorse President Obama in his 2012 reelection bid

Sometimes, time passes you by. I don’t know what will happen tomorrow, but I’d bet good money if he wins they’ll come after him again in 2020.

* Hmm…

Lipinski, allies say, was caught a bit flat-footed by the challenge. He told TPM a few weeks ago that he wasn’t sure “why anyone believes this is going to be a close race to begin with.” He was slow to launch TV ads slamming Newman, allowing her and her allies weeks to themselves to define the race. That allowed Newman to raise her once-nonexistent name ID and drill him for his regular breaks with his party, not an easy feat in Chicago’s expensive media market especially since it’s been saturated with heavy campaign spending from the billionaires running for Illinois governor.

A Lipinski poll taken early in the race found him with a 30-point lead; a recent survey from NARAL found Newman within two points.

* From Citizens For A Better Illinois, a coalition of NARAL, the Human Rights Campaign, SEIU, MoveOn, Planned Parenthood Action Fund and EMILY’s List…

By Election Day, CBI will have spent more than $1.6 million to expose Dan Lipinski’s record.

A breakdown of our spending:

Mail: $353,256
Cable TV: $599,062
Broadcast TV: $280,000
Digital Advertising: $273,056
Latino Turnout Program: $130,066

Links to their ads and other stuff is here.

36 Comments

*** UPDATED x1 *** Drury says his poll has him at 8 or 9 percent

Thursday, Mar 15, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

*** UPDATE *** Fight Back for a Better Tomorrow PAC, that dark money outfit run by Local 150, just reloaded with another $300,000 for more TV ads against Drury. That puts them close to a million, right where Drury is.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Remember this press release from yesterday?…

On the heels of an internal poll showing Pat Quinn’s numbers plummeting and Scott Drury’s rising, Scott Drury’s campaign for Attorney General has begun airing a new statewide campaign ad

* Drury was cagey about his poll, but he did say this…

Since the baseline survey, Quinn’s support has dropped by almost 20 percentage points. Raoul has gained 9 points. Drury has gained 5 points.

* Mark Brown got Drury to open up about that poll…

Drury conceded he is still only at 8 percent or 9 percent overall, but said he’s reached double digits in the suburbs and Downstate.

In an interview, [million-dollar campaign contributor Steven Miller] said it was that momentum, coupled with a high percentage of undecided voters in the race (anywhere from 30 percent to 45 percent), that convinced him to make the investment.

A gain of five points means he started at 3 or 4, which is about where I had him last week.

Long way to go to get to first place, though.

28 Comments

Drury gets million-dollar contribution

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This has been rumored all week…

AG candidate Scott Drury reports $1 million from Steven Miller, who has already contributed over $200k to Drury this cycle #twill https://t.co/UukveAozVn

— Illinois Sunshine (@ilsunshine) March 14, 2018

Word is that Dury’s new TV ad ties fellow attorney general candidate Pat Quinn to Speaker Madigan. I’ll post it when I get it.

Weirdest year ever.

…Adding… This is an odd poll story because it’s so bereft of numbers, but at the very least it shows Drury believes he’s surging…

DRURY INTERNAL POLL — Attorney General candidate Scott Drury released an internal poll Tuesday that showed big movement for Drury, and challengers Kwame Raoul and Pat Quinn in both directions. Drury’s support has jumped 5 percent, Raoul’s 9 percent. Quinn still leads the full slate of candidates although his support dropped about 20 percent. The poll was conducted by Deep Blue Strategies of Chicago. Thirty-three percent of respondents were undecided.

Jumped 5 percent or 5 points? Big difference. I’ll assume it means points. Also, he’s jumped 5 since when? And where’s he at now? 5? 10? I’ve asked the campaign for an explanation.

30 Comments

Ives claims she’s within 10 points of Rauner

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* ABC 7…

Ives expressed confidence in her chances.

“Well, we’re not going to reveal the specifics, but I will tell you that we believe we’re within 10 points of Gov. Rauner, which is phenomenal considering where we started,” [Rep. Jeanne Ives] said.

Rauner’s campaign declined to comment about Ives’ claims about polling.

That might explain some things (including maybe the gun bill veto threat) if it’s true, but I’ve called around and can’t confirm it. We’ll see if this smokes anyone out.

50 Comments

*** UPDATED x1 *** POLL: 57 percent of Chicagoans say city is on wrong track, will vote to replace underwater Emanuel

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Melissa Harris…

On Tuesday through Thursday of last week, Max Temkin and I fielded our second Temkin/Harris Poll.

Much has stayed the same with this poll:

We hired veteran pollster Jill Normington of Normington Petts in Washington, D.C., to conduct the survey. (Jill is Tammy Duckworth’s pollster.) The sample size is 500 (includes cell phones); the error rate is +/- 4.4%.

We polled registered voters versus likely voters. This gives us a sample that is slightly younger, more Hispanic and less African American than people who typically vote. However, we’re also able to say, using this methodology, that the results represent the views of a broader swath of Chicagoans. So please view this as a public opinion poll, and do not use it to predict election winners.

The top-line results are attached to this email; below is a summary of the headlines.

Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s favorability and re-elect numbers “are still terrible but a little better than before,” Jill said.

The Police Department’s favorability has gone up due to significant improvement among African Americans. In fact, favorability is now net positive among this group (50/29).

Not surprisingly, J.B. Pritzker’s name recognition has shot up to three-quarters of Chicagoans from two-thirds since September. Somewhat surprisingly, his favorability among African Americans and Chicagoans overall has increased since September.

And finally, several new, exciting topics in this poll: the express train to O’Hare; tax breaks for Amazon; legalizing the use of recreational marijuana; and an elected school board.

Chicagoans support an express train to O’Hare, no matter what part of the city they live in, whether they have a college degree or not, or whether they’re conservative or liberal. And note the high intensity of the positive: Nearly half of Chicago registered voters polled are strongly in favor of this idea.

And finally, the answer that most surprised us: Strong support for tax breaks for Amazon (59% in favor; 25% opposed). “There is a little bit of an age pattern with people over 60 more likely to be opposed, but there is no partisan bent. Democrats and Republicans are within six points of each other, and it is rare for them to be that close on anything,” Jill told us.

You can read my full analysis at mharris.com and Max’s at maxistentialism.com, which hilariously chronicles a cease-and-desist letter we received after the last poll. We will conduct our next poll in the fall just prior to the general election.

The poll is here.

* Not great news for Mayor Emanuel…

Would you say things in Chicago are generally headed in the RIGHT DIRECTION or would you say things are pretty seriously off on the WRONG TRACK?

RIGHT DIRECTION 28%
WRONG TRACK 57%
(DON’T KNOW) 15%

If the 2019 general election for Mayor of Chicago were held today, would you vote to RE-ELECT Rahm Emanuel to another term as Mayor or would you vote to REPLACE him with someone else?

DEFINITELY RE-ELECT 13%
PROBABLY RE-ELECT 15
DEFINITELY REPLACE 17
PROBABLY REPLACE 40
(DON’T KNOW) 16

TOTAL RE-ELECT 27%
TOTAL REPLACE 57%

President Trump was at 12% favorable, 82% unfavorable. Gov. Rauner was at 17% favorable, 62% unfavorable. Mayor Emanuel was at 36% favorable, 42% unfavorable. And JB Pritzker was at 35% favorable, 24% unfavorable. Lots of undecideds on that last one, which is what we’re seeing in other polls.

Meanwhile, 59% supported “The tax breaks and incentives offered by Chicago to
bring in an Amazon headquarters,” while 25% opposed. Another 66% supported “Making recreational marijuana legal in Chicago,” while 27% were opposed. And 83% supported “Having the Chicago School Board be elected instead of being appointed by the mayor,” while just 10% were opposed.

*** UPDATE *** Text message from a Rahm campaign guy…

Hey Rich, read your post on the Chicago poll. I do not think this poll is grounded in reality. Important to point out that a November GE electorate is fundamentally different than a 2019 municipal electorate. If you look at the demographic makeup of this poll it skews much younger than a typical November electorate let alone a municipal electorate. The racial makeup is also significantly off. Beyond these points, this poll does not reflect what we are seeing with our own internal numbers or numbers that have been reported from other campaigns.

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