Numbers have been rounded by me. I did a long analysis for subscribers the other day, but notice how Kennedy’s recent “surge” has been reversed, presumably by Pritzker’s U of I TV ad. Tapping the brakes apparently worked for now.
Also it’s impossible not to notice that the “undecided” category is in second place in the governor’s race despite $60 million in spending by JB Pritzker. The category has a huge “lead” in the AG’s race, where the frontrunner is not beloved and the others are not very well known. Lots and lots of unknowns are still out there.
The poll of 1,029 likely voters was conducted March 7-9. 512 of the responses came from mobile phone users and the margin of error was ±3.06 percent.
* The crosstabs are here. Before we go on, let’s take a quick look at a Tribune story about the Downstate vote…
Christopher Mooney, a political scientist at the University of Illinois’ Institute of Government and Public Affairs, said there is a risk factor for candidates who fail to devote time and resources Downstate in favor of the more heavily populated city and suburbs. […]
By the numbers, the ballots cast in the 96 counties outside Chicago and the suburban collar counties make up a small percentage of the Democratic primary vote. Only 23 percent of the nearly 2.1 million ballots cast in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary came from Downstate.
Numbers alone can be misleading, however, particularly in a six-candidate contest where the winner only needs the most votes, not a majority. […]
Pritzker has had the money to air TV ads statewide for months, and his deep pockets already have assisted local county organizations with contributions. That organizational starting point “is maybe a secret weapon,” Mooney said.
A recurring idea is for the state to tax retirement income, such as pensions and social security. This idea is widely unpopular, with 74 percent opposing and only 22 percent in favor.
Biss campaign manager Abby Witt released the following statement in response to JB Pritzker’s latest misleading attack ad.
“Daniel only wants to tax retirement income of billionaires like JB Pritzker, so it’s no wonder he’s in a panic. JB has never had to worry about saving for retirement, for his kids’ college tuition, or for rent each month. While Daniel Biss passed the landmark Secure Choice Savings Program that created retirement options for millions of fellow working Illinoisans, JB Pritzker was ripping toilets out of his house to avoid property taxes and forcing the rest of us to make up his personal savings.”
Biss has said on numerous occasions that he would only consider taxing retirement income of millionaires and billionaires to reduce the burden on the middle class, and only after the Illinois Constitution has been amended to allow for a progressive income tax.
The only voters who are gonna see that response are reading this blog post right now, unless Biss has the money to air a TV ad.
However, in a follow-up question in which only retirement income above $100,000 would be taxed, majorities are in favor. Combining the 22 percent who favored it in the first question with the 52 percent of the 745 initial opponents who would favor it with the exemption, 60 percent of the total sample favor taxing retirement income above $100,000.
There are some areas in which a majority of voters would support increased revenue, starting with the so-called “millionaire’s tax,” which would impose an extra 3 percent levy on income over $1 million, favored by three-quarters [76 percent, 21 oppose, with 57 percent strongly in favor] of respondents in the sample. Nearly as many [72 percent in favor, 24 percent oppose, with 47 percent strongly in favor] would favor a constitutional amendment to allow a graduated income tax, with higher rates for higher earners and lower rates for lower earners.
A slight plurality (49 percent favor, 46 percent oppose) would favor legalized gambling in Illinois to raise state revenues [23 percent strongly favor and 28 percent strongly oppose].
Less popular were a sales tax on services [39 percent favor, 58 percent oppose, with 36 percent strongly opposed] and a tax on gasoline to fund highway, road, and bridge improvements [42 percent favor, 57 percent oppose, with 41 percent strongly opposed).
A recurring idea is for the state to tax retirement income, such as pensions and social security. This idea is widely unpopular, with 74 percent opposing and only 22 percent in favor. However, in a follow-up question in which only retirement income above $100,000 would be taxed, majorities are in favor. Combining the 22 percent who favored it in the first question with the 52 percent of the 745 initial opponents who would favor it with the exemption, 60 percent of the total sample favor taxing retirement income above $100,000.
The state of Illinois has a budget deficit of over 1.5 billion dollars. I’m going to read three statements that people have made about how to fix the deficit, and ask you which one comes closest to your views. If you haven’t though much about this issue just tell me that.
* Illinois’ public programs and services have already been reduced significantly. We can only fix the problem by taking in more revenue, such as a tax increase.
* The state takes in plenty of money to pay for public services, but wastes it on unnecessary programs. We can fix the problem by cutting waste and inefficiency in government.
* Illinois’ budget problem is so large it can only be solved by a combination of budget cuts and revenue increases.
* Haven’t though much about it.
More revenues 10%
Cuts to waste and inefficiencies 51%
Both cuts and revenues 28%
Haven’t thought much 6%
Other/Don’t know (not read) 5%
Since 85 percent of the state’s budget is made up of K-12 education, higher education, and health and human services, which one of these areas should be cut to make up the difference?
K-12 6%
Higher education 29%
Health and human services 17%
All of the above (not read) 3%
None of the above (not read) 32%
Other/Don’t know 13%
“This year, as in years past, our poll shows the people of Illinois support spending cuts in the abstract, but are reluctant to endorse specific spending cuts. This underscores one of the essential reasons for our state’s seemingly intractable budget problems. The people of Illinois seem to be saying, ‘Please cut spending, but we have no idea of where to actually cut spending- and stay clear of the programs that we like’” said John Shaw, director of the Paul Simon Institute. […]
From 2011 to 2015, the percentage of voters believing that cuts were the answer to the problem dropped more than 15 percentage points, from 58 percent to 42 percent. That number has since flattened, and jumped to 51 percent favoring cuts in the latest poll.
“This is a perplexing phenomenon in Illinois public opinion,” said Charlie Leonard, an Institute visiting professor and one of the directors of the poll. “After more than a decade of cuts to public budgets, people can’t let go of the idea that there is $1.5 billion in waste to cut. We have written about this extensively before, but the persistent belief in cutting ‘waste,’ coupled with the inability to agree on solutions, means we’ll probably still be writing about it in the future.”
* According to the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute’s latest poll, the federal tax reform law isn’t yet helping the Republicans. “Do you support or oppose the tax reform plan passed last December by the Republican Congressional majorities?”…
Well over a majority, 53% of Illinois voters say they opposed the tax cut with 15% strongly opposed and 38% who opposed and 2% who said “neither”. The state is deeply polarized on this issue with 80% of Democrats opposed while 75% of Republicans supported the tax cuts. Independents were in the middle with 36% who supported and 48% who opposed the cuts.
Central city Chicago voters opposed the tax cuts by a margin of 63% who opposed and 28% who supported. Downstate voters were more closely divided over the tax cuts with 40% who supported and 41% who opposed. 33% of suburban Chicago and the collar counties voters supported and 55% opposed the tax cuts.
Illinois voters were asked whether the tax cuts would make them more or less likely to vote for Republican congressional candidates in November. 33% of the respondents said the tax cuts would make them more likely to vote Republican in the fall while 56% said less likely with 6% choosing neither.
85% of Democrats said less likely; 80% of Republicans said more likely while 29% of Independents said more likely and 49% said less likely.
Downstate voters chose more likely over less likely by a margin of 48% to 42%. Chicago voters chose less likely by 70% to 19%. Suburban Chicago and the collar counties voters chose less likely over more likely by a margin of 58% to 31%.
The question of which party “best represents your interest in the U. S. Congress” produced a solid advantage for the Democrats. 43% of the respondents overall chose the Democrats; 28% chose the Republicans while 2% chose the Green Party, 6% the Libertarians, and 12% chose some other party.
40% of downstate chose the Republicans and 31% chose the Democrats while 2% chose the Greens and 7% the Libertarians. In Chicago, 55% favored the Democrats and 15% favored the Republicans. 6% took the Libertarians and 3% the Greens in Chicago. 45% of Chicago suburban and collar counties voters chose the Democrats and 25% the Republicans while 2% chose the Greens and 5% the Libertarians.
Keep in mind that these are registered voters, not likely voters. And more men were polled than women. Both of those things are not at all optimal.
* Methodology…
The margin of error of the entire sample of 1,001 voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. […]
Live telephone interviews were conducted by Customer Research International of San Marcos, Texas using the random digit dialing method. The telephone sample was provided to Customer Research International by Scientific Telephone Samples. Potential interviewees were screened based on whether they were registered voters and quotas based on area code and sex (<60% female). The sample obtained 51% male and 49% female respondents. Interviewers asked to speak to the youngest registered voter at home at the time of the call. Cell phone interviews accounted for 60 percent of the sample. A Spanish language version of the questionnaire and a Spanish-speaking interviewer were made available.
Field work was conducted from February 19 through February 25. No auto-dial or “robo” polling is included. Customer Research International reports no Illinois political clients. The survey was paid for with non-tax dollars from the Institute’s endowment fund. The data were not weighted in any way. Crosstabs for the referenced questions will be on the Institute’s polling web site, simonpoll.org.
Generally speaking, do you think things in our country are going in the right direction, or are they off track and heading in the wrong direction?
Right direction 27%
Wrong direction 64%
Don’t know 9%
And what about the direction of the State of Illinois? Generally speaking, are things in Illinois going in the right direction, or are they off track and heading in the wrong direction?
Right direction 9%
Wrong direction 84%
Don’t know 7%
And how are things [in your local area? Are they] going in the right direction, or are they off track and heading in the wrong direction?
Right direction 54%
Wrong direction 37%
Don’t know 10%
* From the Institute…
“Voters have been more negative about the state of Illinois than the rest of the country since the inception of our poll in 2008,” said Charlie Leonard, an Institute visiting professor and one of the designers of the poll. “It is notable that the state ratings are still 20 percentage points more negative than the national ratings and there is an 18% gap between Illinois and the nation on the ‘right direction’ option.”
So, maybe if we legalized it the public might be happier with the way things are going here? Just sayin.
* Back to the press release…
Two-thirds (66%) of Illinois voters said they favored this measure compared to nearly one-third (32% who opposed. Those favoring were 46% who strongly favored and 20% who favored legalization compared to 24% who strongly opposed and 8% who opposed and 3% were unsure.
Downstate voters favored legalization by a 58% to 40% margin; Chicago favored by 77% to 22% and suburban Chicago and the collar counties favored by 66% to 31%. Democrats favored by 78% to 20%; Republicans were evenly divided at 49% favor and 49% opposed and Independents favored by 62% to 36%.
A new Public Policy Polling survey shows political newcomer Marie Newman in a statistical dead heat with longtime Congressman Dan Lipinski. The poll, made available first to POLITICO, showed 43 percent of those surveyed supported Lipinski and 41 percent backed Newman — the two percentage points were within the margin of error. The automated poll of 648 likely Democratic primary voters was taken Feb. 27-28. […]
The numbers reflect a huge jump in Newman’s name recognition since October, when she only logged 18 percent in a Normington Petts poll. Since then, various groups, including NARAL, Planned Parenthood and SEIU have backed Newman, and a superPAC targeting Lipinski has helped drive up her name ID and his negatives. While Lipinski has more money in his account than Newman, over the last few weeks, the Citizens for a Better Illinois political action committee spent nearly $700,000 on ads attacking Lipinski. Newman had the help of veteran Democrats U.S. Reps. Jan Schakowsky and Luis Gutierrez who publicly rejected Lipinski, calling his views opposing abortion rights and votes on immigration too conservative for his district. The AFL-CIO has backed Lipinski and he has the support from dozens of mayors and village presidents in the 3rd Congressional District.
The survey was conducted from February 27-28, 2018. PPP surveyed 648 IL-03 likely Democratic primary voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.9%. This poll was conducted by automated telephone interviews.
* The breakdown of those who participated in the survey are:
o 55% women, 45% men
o 16% Hispanic or Latino, 71% white, 7% African-American, 6% other
o 31% aged 18-45, 46% aged 46-65, 23% older than age 65
During the last Census, the district was 66 percent white, 25 percent Latino and 5 percent African-American. However, that’s probably not how the actual voting breaks down.
United for Progress, Inc., has launched a new television ad, “Don’t Be Fooled,” which highlights Marie Newman’s record of fly-by-night campaign exaggerations, misstatements, poor management, and policies that will hurt Illinois workers.
“A member of Congress can’t deliver progressive change in Washington without character and experience. And Marie Newman unfortunately has neither,” said United For Progress, Inc. Treasurer Bruce Goren. “She claims to fight for workers and yet took a stand against 14,000 airline workers in her own district. She shamelessly lied about her record as a nonprofit leader and business owner. She claims to be a progressive and yet has no record of fighting for progressive change. We ran this ad because voters in the 3rd District deserve to know the truth: Marie Newman would be a disastrous choice for Congress.”
If Marie Newman has her way, subsidized foreign airlines will take away U.S. jobs. But that’s not the only thing fly-by-night with Marie Newman. She says she set up a charity for bullied children. But the IRS has no record of it. The restaurant she ran was cited for over a dozen health code violations. Her experience for public office? Dropping out of the race for Library Board. Don’t be fooled by the flimflam. Send Marie Newman and her out-of-state attack dogs packing.
