* First, some historical background…

(B)ack in 2008, when Rod Blagojevich was nearing his fateful end, the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute found that 75% of Illinoisans believed Illinois was heading in the wrong direction, while 12.4% believed it was going in the right direction.

In 2010, the Simon Institute had the wrong/right track result at 81%-11%. In 2011, the Institute poll pegged the numbers at 75%-15% wrong/right, and it stayed there for a while. The Simon poll’s 2012 wrong/right results were 70%-20%. The 2013 Simon poll had it at 75%-16%.

In early 2015, shortly after Republican Bruce Rauner was sworn in as governor, Illinoisans’ mood improved a little. “Only” 63% said the state was headed in the wrong direction, while 22% said it was moving in the right direction.

By 2016, after all heck had broken loose in Springfield amid Rauner’s refusal to negotiate a budget until he won his war with organized labor, things got even worse. The Simon poll found a whopping 84% of the state’s voters believed Illinois was off on the wrong track, while only 10% thought it was following the right path. The Simon poll numbers were essentially unchanged two years later (84%-9%) as Rauner was finishing up his first and only term.

By October of 2022, an Emerson College poll found that 52 percent thought Illinois was on the wrong track, while 48 percent thought the state was heading in the right direction.

* Gov. Pritzker was asked today about national polling which shows that, despite lower inflation and a stronger economy, people are still pessimistic about economic conditions. His response…

Well, we’re actually solving problems and actually making things better. And in the end, it’s good policy that makes good politics.

And so whether there’s a lag between the time that people feel the benefit of an economy where earners are earning, outpacing inflation, and therefore their income levels are rising. They may not recognize it at the beginning. But I think they’re beginning to recognize it now.

I’d like to say I just read a Republican poll in Illinois that shows that, in Illinois anyway, that more than 50 percent of the people of Illinois are optimistic about the economy in Illinois and only 42 percent are not optimistic. That’s different than the polls that you’re citing, right? And that’s a recent poll by a Republican organization. And it shows that I think there’s progress and, certainly in Illinois, there is more optimism.

* I asked his spokesperson what poll he was talking about and was pointed to this result…

That’s actually a better result than Pritzker portrayed. Just 20 percent are pessimistic? And less than one percent are very pessimistic? In Illinois?

Empower to Win is a project of Cor Strategies, which is a Republican consulting group. The poll was featured in their latest video presentation.

…Adding… From the Empower to Win response to Pritzker’s comments…

This latest tracking poll shows a huge challenge for Illinois Republicans in 2024. How do you craft an economic message when a majority of voters are optimistic about the economy, yet still cite the economy as one of their top issues and want to leave the state?

More from the poll…