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The long knives have come out for Rutherford - Romney up big - Touchy poll results

Monday, Mar 19, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign continues to backbite Treasurer Dan Rutherford via anonymous quotes in the national media. As I told you last week, some Illinois Romney supporters shivved Rutherford for failing to kick several Rick Santorum delegates off the ballot. Politico looks at another angle

News of the standoff was first reported Thursday by the Daily Herald of Arlington Heights, but the Romney campaign’s effort to fix Rutherford’s mess has not previously been disclosed.

One Romney source described Rutherford’s leadership as “a complete disaster” and said Romney’s campaign headquarters had to fly paid staffers to Illinois to collect signatures at Chicago-area train stations and walk precincts because the treasurer’s organization had failed to collect enough signatures.

The Romney high command, the source said, “was flabbergasted that an Illinois statewide official had no organization.”

Once the Romney campaign challenged Santorum’s petitions, the Santorum campaign counter-challenged, pointing out the “fatal error” of the Romney petitions being notarized in Massachusetts instead of Illinois, said Santorum’s Illinois state director, Jon Zahm.

“I filed that challenge and they eventually asked me to withdraw my challenge in exchange for them withdrawing theirs,” Zahm said. “It was all a big waste of people’s time and money. But I didn’t use a law firm like they did, I did it on my own.”

Rutherford, who is widely expected to have ambitions to run for governor in 2014, then urged Romney’s Boston headquarters to withdraw the challenge to Santorum’s petitions, a request the campaign granted as part of what one Romney adviser called “home rule.”

I’m hearing, however, that it was Romney’s Boston people who wanted the petitions notarized in Massachusetts. As with everything else, they’ve got nobody to blame but themselves. Their candidate can’t close, so they blame others.

By the way, Rutherford attended Romney’s Springfield event. I wonder if the two had a chat?

* Thanks to you, Public Policy Polling surveyed Illinois. Romney is way up

Mitt Romney is headed for a blowout victory in Illinois on Tuesday. He leads with 45% to 30% for Rick Santorum, 12% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.

Romney’s particularly strong among voters who live in suburban areas (50-29) and with those who live in urban areas (46-23). But he’s even running slightly ahead of Santorum, 38-36, with folks who identify as living in rural parts and that strength with a group of voters he hasn’t tended to do that well with is why he’s looking at such a lopsided margin of victory.

Romney tends to win moderates in most states and Santorum usually win voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ The swing group in the Republican electorate is those identifying as just ’somewhat conservative.’ Romney is winning those folks by a whooping 60-20 margin in Illinois. Romney’s also benefiting from a 52-28 advantage with seniors.
We’ve tended to find Santorum a lot more popular with voters even in states that Romney has won over the last six weeks, but that’s not the case in Illinois. Romney’s favorability is 57/34, about par for the course of where we’ve found him this year. Santorum’s at only 55/36, much worse numbers than we’ve seen for him most places in the last couple months, and suggesting that GOP voters are starting to sour on him a little bit.

Santorum’s winning the group he tends to do well with- Tea Partiers, Evangelicals, and those describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ But he’s not winning them by the kinds of wide margins he would need to take an overall victory- he’s up only 8 with Tea Party voters and 10 with Evangelicals, groups he needs to win by more like 25 points with to hope to win in a northern state. Santorum can’t blame Gingrich for his troubles in Illinois either. If Newt was out Romney would still have an 11 point advantage on Santorum, 45-34.

* PPP also asked these rather touchy questions of some southern Republicans a couple of weeks ago, but here are the Illinois results

Q23 Do you think Barack Obama is a Christian or a Muslim, or are you not sure?

Christian…………………………………………………. 24%
Muslim…………………………………………………… 39%
Not sure…………………………………………………. 37%

Q24 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States, or not?

He was…………………………………………………… 36%
He was not……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure…………………………………………………. 28%

Q25 Do you believe in evolution, or not?

Believe in evolution………………………………….. 41%
Do not……………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure…………………………………………………. 16%

Q26 Do you think that interracial marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal……………………………………………………… 75%
Illegal…………………………………………………….. 16%
Not sure…………………………………………………. 9%

Um, OK. According to the crosstabs, 23 percent of likely Illinois Republican primary voters over 65 think that interracial marriage should be illegal.

* More results

Q16 Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

Yes………………………………………………………… 25%
No…………………………………………………………. 61%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the city of Chicago?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable……………………………………………. 65%
Not sure…………………………………………………. 8%

Q22 Are you a Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, or St. Louis Cardinals fan?

Cubs……………………………………………………… 37%
White Sox………………………………………………. 20%
Cardinals………………………………………………… 22%
Not a fan of any of these teams…………………. 21%

* The Trib takes a look at the religion angle

Santorum, a Catholic, has failed to win a plurality of the Catholic vote in any primary so far. Instead, the former Pennsylvania senator has relied on evangelical support.

According to a Tribune/WGN-TV poll conducted March 7-9, 42 percent of Illinois voters described themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians. Of that group, 42 percent backed Santorum, compared with 26 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who is Mormon. Of the 54 percent of voters who do not consider themselves born-again or evangelical Christians, Romney led Santorum, 43 percent to 22 percent. The poll did not give voters the option to identify as Catholic.

Romney’s Mormon faith may hurt him with some voters. In 2010, the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University in Carbondale conducted a statewide poll of registered voters that found a majority would never vote for a Mormon, results that were not publicly released at the time.

“Rick Santorum’s faith should play well in Illinois,” said Tobin Grant, a professor of political science at SIU who worked on the poll. “It’s unlikely that people will choose him because he’s Catholic per se, but as a committed Catholic, Santorum shares the same values, beliefs and viewpoints as many Republican Catholics in Illinois. In central and southern Illinois, Santorum will also draw support from evangelicals and other conservative Protestants who will value his family and faith.”

It’s kinda bizarre that the Paul Simon Institute didn’t release those polling results.

* John Kass believes Santorum and Newt Gingrich are running for president just to hurt Ron Paul. I kid you not

There are two other pseudo-conservatives in the race who’ve done the GOP establishment’s bidding by blocking U.S. Rep. Ron Paul from a one-on-one with Romney early on in the campaign.

* Meanwhile, things are truly getting nasty in the 12th Congressional District GOP primary. Some people calling themselves “Concerned Citizens of Belleville, IL” sent out a letter making all sort of allegations about Rodger Cook’s private and public lives. Click here if you dare. Oof. [Fixed link]

* I was on the Dan Ryan Expressway a little over a week ago and noticed something missing from Patrick Daley Thompson’s billboard: The word “Daley.”

“Patrick D. Thompson” was how he put it on the billboard. it was hard not to figure that his middle name isn’t necessarily an asset everywhere

It’s not often a first-time candidate for an obscure public office gets endorsed by the city’s Democratic powerhouses, but that kind of political mojo comes easier when you’re related to the two longest-serving mayors in Chicago history.

In his bid for a seat on the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District, Patrick Daley Thompson is endorsed by House Speaker Michael Madigan, Mayor Rahm Emanuel, City Council Finance Chairman Edward Burke, Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle and County Board Finance Committee Chairman John Daley — one of Thompson’s uncles.

That kind of backing is no doubt one reason Thompson in recent months has raised the most money out of six Democratic primary candidates vying for three seats in Tuesday’s primary.

Since September, he has raised more than $140,000, including a $10,000 contribution from another uncle, former White House chief of staff William Daley, according to state campaign finance records.

* Related…

* Did CSU employee do political work?

* Cross backs Romney

* When Everyone is Irish: The only Republican in the whole shebang was Illinois Comptroller Judy Barr Topinka.

* Erickson: Voters have a voice in term limits

* Editorial: Reform state’s primary system

* TV AD: Matt Goetten for Congress - “Pictures”

* VIDEO: Rep. Johnson Endorses Rep. Manzullo

* VIDEO: Mitt Romney’s remarks at Charlie Parker’s

* Illinois Looking Like Fertile Ground for Mitt Romney: “I don’t think there was a single poll that had us up in Mississippi, so I don’t really worry too much about polls,” he told reporters after a speech in Osage Beach, Mo. “Look, Illinois’s a tough state, I understand. When you’re getting outspent 10 to 1, it’s hard. But we’re gonna keep working, and do the best we can. And we’re fighting money, we’re fighting the organization, and we’re fighting a divided conservative vote. That’s a pretty hard hill, but we’ve been climbing it and doing well.”

* Making the presidential decision: Tracking three Illinois GOP voters over months: Her vote is not that simple, though. She’ll pick Santorum for president. But on the vote that matters - delegates to the Republican convention - Eva will vote for those aligned with Gingrich. That’s because, she said, they’re Tea Partiers, and could raise a ruckus at the convention.

* Mitt Romney makes election-eve visit to Springfield: “These pancakes are as large as my win in Puerto Rico last night,” Romney quipped, making reference to the famously large 16-inch hotcakes Charlie Parkers has on the menu and his securing of all 20 delegates during Sunday’s vote in Puerto Rico.

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