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*** UPDATED x1 *** Duckworth poll shows huge lead over Krishnamoorthi

Wednesday, Jan 25, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Democratic congressional candidate Tammy Duckworth has released a poll showing her with a commanding 59-17 lead over her primary opponent, Raja Krishnamoorthi. From the pollster

Duckworth enjoys 83% name identification with 67% of the electorate rating her favorably and just 7% evaluating her unfavorably. This glowing assessment is enviable for any candidate but for one in the expensive Chicago media market, it is literally worth millions.

She leads former Illinois Deputy treasurer Raja Krishnamoorthi 59% to 17%. She holds a three-to-one margin with key constituencies: voters who say the will “definitely vote,” voters who voted in at least two Democratic primaries out of the last four, voters age 50 and older, liberals and pro-choice voters.

In addition to her solid vote support, Duckworth is also the choice of 65% of likely voters when asked who has the best chance to beat Joe Walsh in November. Just 13% opt for Krishnamoorthi.

After positives messages from both candidates are simulated, Duckworth maintains her 59% support while Krishnamoorthi is able to climb to just 23%. So while we expect the race to tighten somewhat as Krishnamoorthi communicates his message to voters he neither gains significant traction among undecided voters nor is able to cut into Duckworth’s support. It should be noted that this informed vote is nearly identical to the informed vote from our July poll, which showed Duckworth ahead 60% to 21%.

As veteran strategist David Axelrod said, “I have never seen anyone overcome a 42-point deficit this late in the race.”

Normington Petts did the poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters. The poll was conducted January 10-12 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.

* Meanwhile, for whatever reason, the House Majority PAC either didn’t test or is not releasing head-to-head November matchups in the same congressional district against Republican Joe Walsh. Politico has a bit on the PAC’s latest polling

32% say Rep. Joe Walsh deserves reelection, his approval rating sits at just 28 percent. While there are two Democrats in the race against Walsh, PPP tested a generic opponent. Walsh trails the generic Democrat 49 percent to 35 percent.

From the PAC’s press release…

In Illinois’ 8th Congressional District, only 32% of voters think Congressman Joe Walsh deserves to be reelected, while 57% think it’s time for someone new. Congressional Republicans have a 30/57 favorability rating and only 28% of voters approve of Walsh’s job performance while 44% disapprove. Walsh trails a generic Democratic opponent 49-35 and may be the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the country. […]

Public Policy Polling conducted this survey on behalf of House Majority PAC between January 21st and 22nd. In IL-8 500 registered voters were interviewed with a margin of error of +/-4.4%.T

…Adding… Joe Walsh now has no Republican primary opponents

U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh of McHenry no longer has to worry about the primary election March 20 after both of his Republican challengers were removed from the ballot by the Illinois Board of Elections Tuesday.

Each of the candidates, Richard Evans and Robert Canfield, was more than 100 petition signatures short of the minimum 600 valid signatures required to run in the 8th District Republican primary, the board ruled.

*** UPDATE *** From the Krishnamoorthi campaign…

“This campaign has barely begun. If polls two months out predicted elections, Hillary Clinton would be the President, and Rick Perry would be the Republican nominee. Leaders in our district have overwhelmingly endorsed Raja as their choice and I’m confident that when voters get the chance to hear from both candidates, they’ll make Raja their nominee. Raja is the only candidate in this race with the economic experience and a detailed plan to turn our economy around by helping to create jobs for the middle class.” – Mike Murray, Deputy Campaign Manager

Mike Murray, of course, is a former Capitol Fax intern. Just thought I’d remind you again. I won’t be doing that every time I post on this race because Mike knows he’s in for the normal treatment. Still, it never hurts to remind y’all every once in a while.

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