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Let’s have a look at the Illinois Policy Institute’s new poll
Wednesday, Sep 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller * As promised, here are some of the results from a statewide poll conducted for the Illinois Policy Institute by Doug Schoen. The full poll can be read by clicking here. Graphic image results, which was what the IPI sent to inquiring reporters yesterday, can be viewed by clicking here. The universe is small, just 400 registered voters. It was taken August 29 through September 5th. There are no available crosstabs. They did provide some demographics, however, including 42 percent Democrats, 24 percent Republicans and 26 percent independents. That’s about right. 19 percent said they belonged to a union, and 61 percent of those said they belonged to a “public union.” * Right off the bat, you can see that Illinoisans have no illusions about how well their government runs… ![]() Wisconsin and Indiana residents are obviously more pleased with their state governance. From the full results, they have the state’s right economic track at 23 percent and wrong track at 74 percent. * As you might expect, considering the source, much of the poll is aimed at state workers and unions. But Illinoisans are not reflexively anti-public worker. For instance a strong plurality say that public worker salaries are either too low or about right… ![]() * The IPI skipped over some questions in its graphic presentation that it sent to reporters. The full report has those questions. For instance, 56 percent say public employee retirees should not have to “contribute more toward pension and healthcare benefits because of state and local government budget problems.” The public is also divided over the question of whether public employees are paying their fair share toward retirement costs, with 38 percent saying they are paying their fair share and 36 percent saying they aren’t. * And while there is some support for collective bargaining “reform,” a 53 percent majority opposes restricting collective bargaining rights. The public also doesn’t think that this reform will make much difference… ![]() Also… ![]() * Since the Statehouse receives middling coverage around Illinois, most legislators have grown accustomed to operating without much public knowledge. However, the public is obviously keeping track of the budget crisis… ![]() * It’s no surprise that the IPI would ask loaded questions in its poll. It is what it is. However, it’s even worse when they cross the line into deliberate falsehoods… ![]() The public has a different view about how the problem was solved, however… ![]() * Once again, back to public employees… ![]() * According to the poll 70 percent had [not] heard about the lawsuit between AFSCME and the state. The lawsuit was not described, but those who said they had heard of it were then asked which side they backed. This will give you a good idea of how much contempt voters have for the state. Even though respondents believe that the union is not doing enough to help with the state’s problems, a clear plurality sides with the union over the state… ![]() However, when the lawsuit is explained in the next question, 63 percent said the union should have to accept a pay freeze, while just 27 percent said the union should get its guaranteed pay increase. * This is one of two biggest surprises in the poll results. 32 percent actually favor the tax hike? I never would’ve thought it was that high… ![]() * This is little surprise… ![]() * Here’s the other, perhaps bigger surprise. Even though a clear majority favors pension changes, few actually say it would move their votes, and only by a paltry net of ten percent… ![]() If that result is accurate, and the universe is quite small so I can’t say it is, then there’s no good political reason to go against the unions on this issue. Legislators might have a fiduciary reason for doing so, but the political benefit could be slight to nil. Then again, control of the House and Senate is decided in districts that are more independent-leaning, so the numbers could be stronger there. Discuss.
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