* Lynn Sweet reports on a very early poll in the 8th Congressional District Democratic primary race. It’s probably no surprise that Tammy Duckworth has a big early lead over Raja Krishnamoorthi…
The poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters in the new 8th district–anchored in the northwest suburbs–was conducted July 10-12, with a margin of error of 4.9 percent.
Duckworth–whose has had a fairly high profile since her 2006 run for Congress from the current 6th district–she lost to Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.)– starts the contest with a big lead over Krishnamoorthi, 69 percent to 8 percent.
Krishnamoorthi–who lost a Democratic primary bid for comptroller last year– lags far behind in name identification over Duckworth, 76 percent to 15 percent.
Duckworth also starts the primary with higher favorables, 61 percent to 5 percent.
* From Duckworth’s pollster…
She holds seven or eight-to-one leads in every region of the district. Duckworth is strongest with key primary constituencies including frequent primary voters, women, older voters and liberals.
There is no indication that Duckworth’s lead can be overcome with positive messages.
• Among the small number of voters who know both candidates, Duckworth still leads 54% to 32% indicating that even when he is well-known, Krishnamoorthi falls well short.
• Voters were also given detailed descriptions of the candidates comparing Krishnamoorthi’s ties to President Obama, previous run for State Comptroller, strong record on job creation and raising his family in the district to Duckworth’s personal story, record on veterans’ issues and commitment to job creation. After this simulation of millions of dollars worth of communication in the expensive Chicago market, Duckworth still leads 60% to 21%.
It seems likely that the only way Krishnamoorthi could narrow the race would be to launch a series of negative attacks against Duckworth. Not only would these be unlikely to succeed given the high esteem in which voters hold Duckworth, but these attacks would damage Democrats’ chance to pick up this lean Democratic seat. Any path back to the majority in the House, goes through Illinois-08.
It looks to me like they’re already trying to elbow Krishnamoorthi out of the race. I doubt that’ll happen any time soon.
* The Krishnamoorthi campaign’s response…
We are not surprised that a poll released by the Duckworth campaign shows a favorable position for Tammy, but the reality is that any poll conducted 8 months before an election is based solely upon name recognition. In the State Comptroller race, Raja started with just 6% support and came within an eyelash of winning the Democratic statewide primary against a party-backed, well-funded state legislator with a great ballot name. Today, even with modest name recognition, Raja has quickly raised over $400,000 in 5 and a half weeks, and he has assembled a formidable base of political and grassroots support. The fundamental issue in this election is who has the private sector experience and ideas to help revive the economy and protect the middle class. On that issue, Raja will fare very well.
*** UPDATE *** This is the super-positive statement used in the poll about Raja Krishnamoorthi. It barely moved the needle…
Raja Krishnamoorthi, age 37, is the President of Sivananthan Laboratories, a high tech company specializing in national security and renewable energy products. Before that, he was the Deputy Treasurer for Illinois where he helped revamp the state’s unclaimed property system and ran the technology venture capital fund, which has helped create hundreds of good-paying jobs in Illinois. Last year he ran for State Comptroller. Raja served as issues director for Barack Obama’s U.S. Senate campaign in 2004 and as an advisor to his presidential campaign. He is raising his kids right here in the district. As the only candidate with private sector experience creating jobs, Raja will focus on economic growth and putting people back to work. He says that is the only way we can really put the government’s fiscal house in order and keep our commitments to educate our kids and take care of seniors. Raja wants to bring common sense and practical problem solving to Washington D.C. — not mindless, hyperpartisan politics based on rigid ideologies.
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* Meanwhile, it looks like Springfield state Sen. Larry Bomke is going to retire…
State Sen. Larry Bomke, a member of the Illinois General Assembly since 1995, said Wednesday he’s unlikely to run again unless the courts overturn the new Senate district map enacted this year by state Democrats.
Freshman state Sen. Sam McCann, R-Carlinville, is expected to announce today that he will run for the Senate from the 50th District, Bomke’s new home district. The new 50th includes much of Springfield.
McCann said in a statement Wednesday he will announce his plans today, and a McCann supporter, Pike County GOP Chairman John Birch, said McCann will run in the 50th.
Bomke, who had said earlier he was undecided about running again, reiterated his doubts that he could adequately serve constituents in the new 50th, because it covers so much territory. He said he also is busy with his insurance business, which recently became part of a firm with 20 locations across the state.
“If the map stays the same way, I probably would not run,” Bomke said.
I’ll have more on this for subscribers tomorrow.
* And Dorothy Brown may face a Democratic primary opponent…
A longtime alderman is weighing a Democratic primary challenge to Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown following her poor showing in a failed run for County Board president.
Ald. Ricardo Munoz, 22nd, told the Tribune he will decide whether to take on Brown within two weeks. He said her office has failed to fully enter the computer age and hinted at the scandals that surfaced in last year’s election.
“It needs to be automated,” Munoz said of Brown’s office. “It needs to be digitized. It needs to be cleaned up.”
Brown, who first ran without regular Democratic support in 2000, said she plans to run for re-election and is “very surprised” by Munoz’s interest in her job.
* Related…
* Bustos makes it official: She’ll seek 17th Congressional seat
* Democrat Gill announces candidacy in new 13th Congressional District
* Walsh tells Obama to “quit lying”
* ADDED: Hultgren calls for Congress to investigate Planned Parenthood