Who was the best pollster? Nobody
Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
* How did the pollsters do on the Illinois governor’s race? I don’t think it’s ever been this bad. Nobody’s average even came close. From RCP via Zorn. Click the pic for a larger image…
* October polling. Again, click the pic for a better view…
PPP should’ve stopped in mid October when it was ahead.
* Rasmussen was also way off nationwide. From FiveThirtyEight, also via Zorn…
I did a quick check on the accuracy of polls from the firm Rasmussen Reports, which came under heavy criticism this year — including from FiveThirtyEight — because its polls showed a strong lean toward Republican candidates.
Indeed, Rasmussen polls quite consistently turned out to overstate the standing of Republicans tonight. Of the roughly 100 polls released by Rasmussen or its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research in the final 21 days of the campaign, roughly 70 to 75 percent overestimated the performance of Republican candidates, and on average they were biased against Democrats by 3 to 4 points.
Every pollster is entitled to a bad cycle now and again — and Rasmussen has had some good cycles in the past. But their polling took a major downturn this year.
* But FiveThirtyEight’s famed computer model didn’t exactly work like a charm, either…
Thoughts?
