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Fox News Poll: Brady ahead by 5 points

Tuesday, Oct 26, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A new Fox News poll left out one the candidates’ names (Libertarian Lex Green), which is just ridiculous. But “Some other candidate” took 1 percent, which is about in line with other recent polling.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters taken October 23rd has Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn 44-39. Independent Scott Lee Cohen has 6 percent and Green Party nominee Rich Whitney has 4 percent.

According to the poll, Quinn leads among women voters just a single point. He has just 64 percent of the “non-white” vote, while Brady has 12, Whitney has 6 and Cohen has 5. Quinn has just 74 percent support among Democrats, but Brady has 87 percent backing among Republicans. Independents break heavily 45-27 to Brady. All those numbers are pretty much right in line with other recent polling.

Among those who have already voted, 58 percent said they cast their ballot for Quinn, while 37 percent were with Brady. That could help put some of these early voting stories into context.

43 percent said the policies of the Obama administration have hurt Illinois’ economy, while just 31 percent said it helped and 23 percent said it made no difference. Just 44 percent said Obama’s policies will help the country in the long run, while 47 percent said they’ll hurt. 45 percent strongly or somewhat support the tea party, while 43 percent oppose it. 11 percent were neutral. 49 percent of women opposed it, while 37 percent supported it.

* Speaking of the tea party

When is a tea party-sponsored event for Republican governor nominee Bill Brady not a tea party-sponsored event? When Brady is the one promoting it, apparently.

Brady’s campaign today sent out an e-mail promoting the “final stop on Brady’s suburban ‘Clean Break Express’ tour” on Wednesday in southwest suburban Homer Glen. Appearing with Brady will be Govs. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Bob McDonnell of Virginia.

But in promoting the event, dubbed “Crunch Time 2010,” Brady’s campaign made no mention of the fact that the Will County Tea Party Alliance is hosting the event. The tea party group and a variety of conservative groups are promoting attendance by saying, “Tea Partiers, Independents, Republicans, Conservatives, and Libertarians will gather together in Homer Glen to prepare for the final drive to victory.”

* And David Axelrod uses big words to excuse possible failure

A top White House official blamed “extraneous factors” for Democrats’ troubles this fall in President Obama’s home state.

White House senior adviser David Axelrod blamed the political fallout from former Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s (D) time in office for some of the difficulties now facing Alexi Giannoulias (D) in his race for the president’s old Senate seat and Gov. Pat Quinn’s (D) bid for reelection.

“There were some extraneous factors in Illinois this year,” Axelrod said on MSNBC, “including a lot of contretemps about how the president was replaced.”

* The Fox News pollster only included two names in its US Senate poll, so I’m not reporting the results here. Go see it for yourself.

* Roundup…

* Big, late cash in guv race

* New Chicago Tribune poll mirrors Post-Dispatch’s, has GOP’s Brady up by 4 for gov

* Social issues divide Brady, Quinn

* Brady: I’ve Always Been Campaigning for Black Votes

* Brady: “There’s No Room for What Rickey Hendon Did”

* Quinn, Brady Argue Over Who Should Apologize

* Scott Lee Cohen puts another $3.2 million of his own money into governor race

* Scott Lee Cohen has loaned $2.1 million to his campaign since July

* Sun-Times: For lieutenant gov, Simon bests Plummer

* RR Star: Keep Jesse White as secretary of state

* “This will be it,” Jesse White says

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Tuesday, Oct 26, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Tribune poll: Brady leads Quinn 43-39, Rutherford leads Kelly 42-38

Tuesday, Oct 26, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Bumped up for visibility.]

* There just isn’t any good news for Gov. Pat Quinn in the Tribune’s new poll. For instance

Among independent voters, Brady’s backing improved 10 percentage points in the new survey while Quinn’s support remained about the same.

Brady’s now leading 47-28 among independents. If this poll is correct then they’re breaking hard his way.

* More bad news for Quinn…

Indeed, Brady now has the support of 85 percent of voters who call themselves Republican, up from 79 percent four weeks ago. Quinn’s support among self-identified Democrats has increased from 71 percent to 75 percent during the same time period. […]

Slightly more than half of black voters viewed Quinn favorably, just two-thirds supported him and more than a quarter are undecided or backing a third-party candidate. Among women statewide, Quinn has a narrow 43 percent to 38 percent advantage over Brady. Among white suburban women, the two men are statistically even at about 40 percent support.

Tied among white suburban women. Nice job, governor. Better roll out that puppy ad.

* And this is just bizarre when you think about how much money has been spent attempting to define Brady…

The poll indicates a sizable chunk of voters — nearly one in three — still have no opinion of Brady despite a year of campaigning for the state’s highest office. That Brady now has a slight lead in the poll indicates a willingness among many voters to seek change during a time of economic uncertainty and go with an unfamiliar candidate rather than a better-known commodity like Quinn.

Scott Lee Cohen was at 5 percent, Rich Whitney was at 4 and Lex Green was at 2. Another 6 percent are undecided.

* The poll also found that Bill Brady has increased his support in the collar counties by 11 points, while Gov. Quinn fell by 8. The tally there now is 50-38. But the last Tribune poll had the two tied in the collars, which nobody really believed. The new number seems much closer to reality and indicates that the paper’s previous poll (which had Quinn leading Brady 39-38) could’ve been an outlier.

The only possibly good news for Quinn is that since the poll was taken Monday through Friday, much of these results are a week or almost a week old. It’s possible that he’s moved up since then. Then again, he could’ve also moved down.

* Meanwhile, most of the down-ballot statewide races are blowouts, which is no surprise. The only close contest is for treasurer

Republican state Sen. Dan Rutherford held a 42 percent to 38 percent edge over Democrat Robin Kelly, a former south suburban lawmaker and current chief of staff to Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. The poll’s error margin is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Rutherford, who lost a run for secretary of state four years ago, held a 3-to-1 cash advantage. He launched broadcast TV ads in the Chicago area in mid-October.

Kelly did best among Chicago voters, with 61 percent to Rutherford’s 11 percent. Rutherford led Kelly in the collar counties, 53 percent to 31 percent, and downstate, 51 percent to 29 percent. Both candidates had 41 percent support in suburban Cook County.

Independent voters broke toward Rutherford, who had 46 percent to Kelly’s 25 percent.

Judy Baar Topinka is creaming David Miller 57-26. Lisa Madigan is crushing her opponent 69-21. And Jesse White is absolutely trouncing his Republican opponent 72-18.

  38 Comments      


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