* The Hill has released a new poll for the 10th Congressional District which tracks fairly well with the Democrats’ own released polling. Democrat Dan Seals leads Republican Bob Dold in the open seat contest by twelve points, 49-37…
Voters are split along party lines, with independents slightly favoring Seals, 42 percent to Dold’s 33. Seals also wins with male and female voters and across all age groups.
President Obama easily carried this district with 61 percent in 2008, and he gets a high approval rating from voters: Fifty-six percent say he’s doing a good job. That could help Seals, as 65 percent say the president is an important factor in their vote.
Kirk’s district has been a longtime Democratic target, and Seals came within 6 percent of beating him in 2006 and 2008. At one point, Seals was reported to be under consideration for appointment to Obama’s Senate seat, a spot that ultimately went to Roland Burris (D).
The NRCC has spent around $242,000 in this district, while the DCCC has spent about $271,000.
Methodology…
The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 405 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
They polled over six days? Odd, that. Also, they haven’t posted crosstabs for this one yet. Not sure why.
…Adding… A commenter found some limited crosstabs. Click here. Thanks much.
The spots are significant because they show that labor is carefully picking its races this year. Unions readily admit they are going to be outspent by conservative third party groups, but they still plan to play a large role in selected races.
It is also important to note that SEIU is going in for Hare, who represents a district that President Obama carried with 57 percent of the vote. Hare wasn’t considered highly vulnerable until about a month ago, when Republican polls showed his race with Schilling to be much tighter than anticipated. The DCCC consequently reserved air time in Hare’s district.
The ad will air in the Quad Cities area of Illinois for a week starting today. The SEIU is spending more than $317K on airing the ads.
“150,000. That’s how many Illinois jobs have been lost to unfair trade deals,” the ad says. “But Bobby Schilling supports a new free trade deal with Korea. And Schilling says he’d support even more free trade deals.”
* Hare’s Republican opponent Bobby Schilling also has a new TV ad called “Phil Hare was Here.” Rate it…
* This has to be one of the stranger political stories of the year. Two men of advanced age get into a physical tussle over the placement of a Bob Dold sign in Wilmette, of all towns…
It began at about 2 p.m. on Oct. 4 in the 1300 block of Sheridan Road, along the sidewalk of a vacant property just south of Langdon Park. An 85-year-old man with a walker apparently pulled two political yard-signs out of the ground and tossed them aside.
The property’s owner lives in the house next door – a 60-year-old woman and her 92-year-old father. The woman’s father began picking up the signs when the 85-year-old started yelling at him, according to a police report.
The woman came to her father’s defense, but when she tried to plant one of the signs back in the ground, the 85-year-old grabbed it. During the ensuing tug-of-war, the man allegedly hit the woman in the side of the head and shoulder. Then he lost his grip on the sign, and fell backwards over his walker, police said.
When police arrived, they offered to take the man to the hospital after he complained of a sore hip, but he refused. The man claimed the yard signs were on public property, but when a police officer disagreed, the man called him, “an idiot and a liar,” according to the police report.
“Then he lost his grip on the sign, and fell backwards over his walker.” People. Please. Relax a bit out there.
