* From Mary Miller’s pollster…

Miller Surging in IL-15; Davis’ Image Tumbles
DATE: Tuesday, June 21, 2022
TO: Interested parties
FROM: Brent Buchanan, President/Founder & Wil Lemon, Research Analyst
RE: Miller has the momentum and surges to lead over Davis in Illinois-15

“Mary Miller has the clear advantage in this race. Her surge – despite being outspent and having outrageous attacks thrown at her – shows her strength. Davis’ attempts to smear Miller have backfired as she’s not only created a ballot lead but also leads Davis in image intensity and intensity on the ballot.
– Brent Buchanan, Pollster/Founder

• Miller now leads Davis 45% to 40% with 15% undecided.
• The race was tied at 41% apiece in the first week of June. The race has gone from even to +5 for Miller in less than two weeks.
• Miller leads Davis +31 with Trump Republicans, and high-propensity voters are shifting to Miller.
• Conclusion: Miller’s ballot momentum is likely growing and will be capped off when President
Trump holds a Save America rally in the district to remind voters of the stakes next Tuesday.

The Cygnal n420 poll in Illinois Congressional District 15 was conducted June 18-19, 2022, with a margin of error of ±4.77%.

Cygnal is an award-winning national public opinion and predictive analytics firm that pioneered multi-mode polling, peer-to-peer text collection, and Political Emotive Analysis. Cygnal is named the #1 Republican private pollster by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight two cycles running, as well as the #1 most accurate polling and research firm in the country for 2018 by The New York Times. Its team members have worked in 48 states and 17 countries on more than 2,100 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns. Cygnal conducted all of Donald J. Trump’s polling from Labor Day through Election Day in 2020. The firm is working in nearly every one of the nation’s most competitive races.

Graphs are here.

* Meanwhile, this advisory is from Sunday evening…

Good evening –

Tomorrow morning in Springfield, Congressman Rodney Davis (R-IL) will be announcing a major endorsement of his campaign. As the only candidate in this race willing to answer questions, Congressman Davis will make the announcement during a media availability after a roundtable event with local leaders. Due to the House being in session this week, this may likely be Congressman Davis’ last media availability in the Springfield-area before June 28. Media are invited to attend, and details can be found below.

WHO: Congressman Rodney Davis, local leaders
WHAT: Congressman Davis announces endorsement, holds media availability
WHERE: Mel-O-Cream, 5456 International Pkwy, Springfield, IL 62711
WHEN: 11:00am CT (media may arrive earlier to set up)

The big reveal…

Davis this week won the endorsements of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Illinois Chamber of Commerce. On Monday, Davis huddled with business leaders at the Mel-O-Cream Donuts International in Springfield, the state capital. Davis fielded questions on his record and the economy before meeting with heads of businesses and chamber officials at Knapheide Manufacturing Company, where he was endorsed by both entities and given an Advocate for American Business Award.

Davis touted his work on policies related to incentivizing employers to pay off employees’ student debt, his role in helping craft the 2017 tax law House and Senate Republicans enacted with then-President Donald Trump, and campaign efforts to get fellow GOP lawmakers elected. Davis added that his focus isn’t on doing TV hits and feels his record of finding bipartisan solutions is an asset to the district, dismissing his opponent’s attacks that he is a “RINO” (Republican in name only).

“That’s not going to be me,” he said regarding the TV hits. “You’ll see me fight, I enjoy the fight, I don’t have to tell you that. But in the end, that’s not my job, and Washington, D.C., should not be the only level of government that we don’t expect to function.”

Illinois Chamber CEO Todd Maisch told the Washington Examiner that while he agrees with much of Miller’s voting record, he believes Davis’s legislative accomplishments warranted the endorsement.

I was kinda expecting more.

Check out the jargon…

“Another huge win for the business community was the USMCA deal in the last administration and another key architected key champion on that legislation,” Eidshaug said. “We’ve also needed key champions to stop bad things from happening in Washington too. Stopping bad tax and spending policies on the Pelosi Schumer Build Back Better bill. Congressman Davis was there with us then too.”

* KSDK…

[Rodney Davis] took questions from the press for half an hour, and at one point said he could go half an hour longer to defend his colleague Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-TX) from accusations that he led Capitol rioters on a “reconnaissance tour” through the halls and security checkpoints on the Capitol grounds the day before January 6th.

“That accusation needed to be proven false,” Davis said, explaining why he wrote a letter to U.S. Capitol Police. “I sent my team over to view Capitol Police footage and we showed no member of the Republican conference took anyone on a so-called ‘reconnaissance tour’ into the Capitol.”

Davis contends Loudermilk’s group only toured an office building, and never entered the U.S. Capitol on January 5 or on the 6th.

* Related…

* Mary Miller and Rodney Davis square off in heated GOP primary to return to Congress

* The Illinois primary between Davis and Miller will test Trump’s sway with GOP voters: St. Louis Public Radio contacted both Miller and Davis, but Miller did not return multiple requests for comment. She has dodged reporters at public events and avoided interviews with most news outlets.