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Polling charts, exit polling and electoral predictions

Monday, Feb 1, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Polling charts can be very helpful in analyzing campaigns. These are from pollster.com. Their javascript is not working properly, so I’m using screen caps. Click the pics for larger images.

Let’s start with the Democratic governor’s race…

The trend is obviously not the governor’s friend. The question now is whether he’s stopped the bleeding. Still, his job performance numbers with undecideds are just awful. Very tough to overcome. And his campaign mechanism has imploded in recent days as Quinn has taken complete charge of his schedule and his message.

The Republicans…

For me, the question here is whether McKenna can get himself over the top. He has the bucks and the message, but he’s still a relatively unknown quantity to regular Repubs. Notice how everyone is moving up but Jim Ryan, who sat on his big lead, didn’t raise enough money and could pay for those mistakes tomorrow.

Also, I just got a call from the Adam A campaign. Apparently Rush Limbaugh just called him “the Scott Brown of Illinois.” He’s been getting a ton of late help from conservative media the past few days, but, as I said, it’s late. The Right was so outraged by Mark Kirk that they ignored a guy who had a shot.

…Adding… I just listened to the audio file of Rush’s show. He didn’t mention Adam A by name. Probably because he didn’t know how to pronounce it.

* The Senate Democratic primary…

That downward trend line for Giannoulias and the steep upward line for Hoffman are what has the Giannoulias campaign more than a bit freaked right now. He’s still got the lead, but it’s dwindling and there are still lots of undecideds.

Nate Silver thinks it’s a two-person race

The race is for all intents and purposes between Giannoulias and Hoffman; Jackson, a former communications spokeswoman for Rod Blagojevich, will probably be limited to 15-20 percent of the vote, mostly coming from Chicago’s predominately Afrian-American South Side. Hoffman, however, has gradually been creeping up on Giannoulias, the front-runner.

And the Republicans…

No analysis necessary.

* Oh, goodie. Exit polling. I’m not sure how scientific this will be, but I’ll be watching tomorrow. From a press release…

The Chicago Current, Chicago’s political journal, will conduct exit polling for the Feb. 2 Illinois primary election. Voting data from polling places across Cook County will be collected to provide media outlets and the public with accurate trends to gauge voters’ preferences.

Analysis of the data will be available throughout Tuesday at www.chicagocurrent.com. Data will include trends for the Democratic Illinois Senate and gubernatorial races, as well as for the Cook County Board president’s race.

“Our study will show which candidates are trending upward or downward throughout the day, while providing statistical analysis of which way voters are leaning,” says Current editor Geoff Dougherty. […]

Current reporters will be following the race throughout the day, and reporting on Twitter, using the hashtag #ILVote.

Fun.

* Bernie Schoenburg has posted his statewide predictions, which were compiled by Eric Zorn

* GOVERNOR: Hynes, Dillard
* U.S. SENATOR: Giannoulias, Kirk
* LT .GOV. Turner./ Murphy
* COMPTROLER . Miller/Topinka
* TREAS: Kelly (Dan Rutherford is running unopposed for the GOP)

Russ Stewart and Tom Roeser have also posted their predictions and my intern Dan Weber has compiled them for easy viewing…

* Russ Stewart:
Gov - Hynes, McKenna
Senate - Hoffman, Kirk
10th - Seals, Dold
Cook County Prez - Preckwinkle, Keats
DuPage County Chmn - Pankau
Lt Gov - Link, Murphy
Treasurer - Oberman
Comptroller - Topinka, Miller

* Tom Roeser:
Gov - Hynes, Dillard
Senate - Hoffman, Patrick Hughes
10th - Hamos, Friedman
Cook County Prez - Stroger, Garrido
DuPage County Chmn - Cronin
Lt Gov - Link, Plummer
Treasurer -Oberman
Comptroller - Dodge, Krislov

Your predictions?

* Zorn also has a long list of newspaper endorsements in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

  86 Comments      


GOP: “McKenna compounded one ethical misstep with another” - And “Adam A” says he’s “surging”

Monday, Feb 1, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* NBC5 took a look at the complete internal ethics committee report by the Illinois Republican Party and found some interesting nuggets

“Andrew McKenna compounded one ethical misstep with another,” the report said.

But what McKenna didn’t specifically address in that statement is that when he presented the poll to his party’s central committee in June 2009, he failed to mention to them that his name had been included at all. […]

The report also seems to back up candidate Jim Ryan’s assertion last week that McKenna failed, to some extent, to cooperate with the ethics committee’s investigation. In the report, the committee chairman noted that on Dec. 22, 2009, McKenna’s campaign manager was twice asked to clarify some questions that had come up, or even just to let them know he wanted more time to respond. He was given until 4 p.m. on Dec. 24. But when the report was printed on Dec. 28, he had done neither.

The full report is here.

* He doesn’t say who did the poll, when the poll was done, or how it was done, but Gateway Pundit blogger Jim Hoft claims that Adam Andrzejewski is surging

In the final days of this primary campaign Adam Andrzejewski is surging in the polls. He has closed the gap from 9 points down to 2 points in the last 5 days with two days to go before the primary election.

Take it for what it’s worth. I’ve sent an e-mail to Hoft asking for an explanation. Andrzejewski also had this to say to the American Spectator

“We feel we’re either within the margin of error or leading the race right now,” said the Tea Party candidate, adding that he senses “panic” among his rivals in the crowded primary field. “We think 22 percent wins the race. Anywhere from 150,000 to 200,000 votes — in a state of 13 million — will win the nomination. The bar is that low.”

I think he may do better than expected. He raised $752K during the last half of 2009, mostly in loans to himself. He’s reported raising $61K since January 1st, but he’s also claiming to be taking in lots of smaller contributions which wouldn’t show up on A-1 reports. In a normal year, that’s not enough to win. Jim Ryan has raised less than that, but Jim Ryan is far better known than AA. Still, in a year like this, who the heck knows.

That, by the way, was a classic pre-election “cover your behind” story.

* Something to ponder

[Sen. Kirk Dillard] owes three campaign supporters a total of $634,814.

That’s a very large debt. Dillard has said he won’t raise money after he takes office, so when will he raise the cash to pay off those loans? Before the fall campaign? Probably not. He’ll need every dime he can get. After the campaign and before he’s sworn in? More likely, but that’s when an administration is put together - not a great time to be raising money if you’re supposed to be Mr. Ethics.

* Related…

* Small primary turnout expected: “I’m predicting a 16 percent or so turnout,” said Winnebago County Clerk Margie Mullins. “That’s what we had four years ago.”

* Early line sees light turnout for Tuesday’s primary: [Lake County’s] Helander said she is hoping for a 30 percent turnout in her county compared to a 22 percent turnout in 2006, but the current totals are not overly encouraging.

* Illinois Primary on Tuesday: Is Obama’s State up for Grabs?

* Could Illinois give Obama another setback?

* PJ Star View: Be careful about drawing conclusions from Massachusetts: From where we sit, Republicans who want to duplicate this result and Democrats who want to prevent it need to rally behind candidates who can prove their ability to work together. In a nation facing enormous challenges, many Americans are sick of watching those they elect do nothing about them.

* Ill. candidates look to make good last impression

* Tired of dirty politics? Cast your vote

* Angry? Go make history

* Be sure to head to the polls for Tuesday’s election

* A vote for Illinois’ future

* Voice of The Southern: Your state, your decisions - vote on Tuesday

* Problems don’t deter gubernatorial candidates

* Republican candidates for gov. stump for votes

* Illinois gubernatorial candidate Dillard says ‘we must clean up our state’ during visit to Quincy

* Dillard stops in region to make his pitch for office

* Brady says McKenna should come clean on ethics violation

* Lots of interest in lieutenant governor post

* A look at GOP lt. gov. candidates

* Comptroller candidates vow fiscal responsibility

  29 Comments      


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