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Some candidates occasionally questioned their opponents’ conservative credentials for not swearing to oppose a tax increase under all possible circumstances.
“I’m the only one who will live up to that standard,” said Bill Brady, a state senator from Bloomington.
State Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington was alone among the six GOP candidates on hand in saying he’d oust those brought in by former Govs. George Ryan and Rod Blagojevich who remain employed by Gov. Pat Quinn.
“Absolutely, I’d fumigate them,” Brady said. […]
Former state Attorney General Jim Ryan of Elmhurst cautioned against “guilt by association” in considering who to keep employed.
Brady: “We absolutely have to invest in our infrastructure. Our capital projects are critically important to us, and our high-speed rail is one of those.”
* Ryan: “I have serious reservations about high-speed rail. I don’t think this is the time to even think about spending money on that project.”
Brady: “It’s unfair to them to hold back cash. That money needs to be borrowed and then repaid.”
Ryan: “If they have to pay their bills, I would support some short-term borrowing. The reason they’re in this position is because for the last eight years they’ve mismanaged our state finances.”
Dillard: “From time to time, it is appropriate for the state to short-term borrow.”
* In other debate news, here is the Tribune editorial board’s “debate” with the various Democratic US Senate candidates. Cheryle Jackson showed up late…
David Hoffman repeated his claim that he would leave the Bush tax cuts in place during the recession and repeal them after the recession ends. He said he would be willing to “look” at lowering the tax base if the budget ever returned to “surplus.” That’s not quite what he wrote in his Tribune questionnaire…
Once our economy recovers, I would remove the tax cuts for individuals at upper-income levels as a deficit-reduction policy, but would support returning the tax rates to their current level when our deficits are under control.
* Here are the winners from yesterday’s Golden Horseshoe nominations…
1) Best legislative staffer: These are the unsung heroes of the Illinois Statehouse. They do all the hard work and get no credit. It’s always tough to make this award because so many are deserving, but Melissa Black, a policy analyst with the Senate Democrats, got the most votes and the most intense support, so she wins. From the nominations…
Her co-workers have deemed her “chair of the midnight caucus” for working so constantly during session. And despite that, she takes time to mentor interns and answer “a quick Medicaid question” for anyone.
2) Best state legislative secretary/admin assistant: This is another tough category because there are so many good ones. Beth Hamilton, who works for Rep. Lou Lang, received the most intense support, and she’s certainly deserving. From the nominations…
Beth Hamilton is a great choice always friendly and puts up with Lou
Good point. Putting up with Lou ain’t easy.
3) Best political bar/restaurant in Springfield: Lots were nominated, but The Globe stood out…
(O)ne-stop shopping for all your legislative contact needs.
Yep.
4) Best IL state agency director: Catherine Shannon at the Department of Labor is one of those people you never read about - mainly because she does such a good job…
Nobody knows their agency better and cares more about doing a good job for the state.
* Today’s categories…
1) Best Illinois state legislator
2) Best Illinois congresscritter
3) Best IL statewide elected official
4) Best Statehouse lobbyist
Remember, it’s not the number of votes, but the intensity of the nominations that count. And no snark, please. Thanks.
* OK, I couldn’t resist this story for several reasons. First, I have a painting by Henry Hill and it’s pretty good. Second, I used a quote from Goodfellas in a recent Sun-Times column…
The leaders’ most important job is protecting their members from election challenges by the other political party. And that brings us to my favorite Outfit movie, Goodfellas.
“All they got from Paulie was protection from other guys looking to rip them off. That’s what it’s all about. That’s what the FBI can never understand - that what Paulie and the Organization offer is protection for the kinds of guys who can’t go to the cops. They’re like the police department for wiseguys.”
Henry Hill’s real-life description of how Outfit bosses operate pretty much gives you the key to understanding how things work in Springfield.
Now, I don’t consider legislative leaders to be gangsters. But even the leaders would have to admit that the organizational mindset is strikingly similar.
And just yesterday I was talking with a legislator about that “F___ you, pay me” scene in the movie and how that related to Illinois politics…
Now the guy’s got Paulie as a partner. Any problems, he goes to Paulie. Trouble with the bill? He can go to Paulie. Trouble with the cops, deliveries, Tommy? He can call Paulie. But now the guy’s gotta come up with Paulie’s money every week no matter what. Business bad? F___ you, pay me. Oh, you had a fire? F___ you, pay me. Place got hit by lightning, huh? F___ you, pay me.”
The former mobster who inspired “Goodfellas” was arrested Sunday in Fairview Heights because he had “one too many” drinks in a hotel lobby, he said.
Henry P. Hill, 66, of Topanga, Calif., was charged with disorderly conduct and resisting arrest in the Drury Inn Hotel, 12 Ludwig Drive in Fairview Heights.
“I got a summons for being intoxicated; it wasn’t my first one,” Hill said. “I broke the law and I got arrested.
“I don’t drink every day,” he added. “Sometimes I have one too many. I know I shouldn’t drink this much, but they give you free drinks. I had a few and it got pretty foggy after that. The lady I was with doesn’t drink, so I had six drinks and I ended up at the county jail.”
Hill is in the area for an art show at a, um, gentleman’s club.
So, I thought you might get a kick out this. Anybody up for a trip to Fairview Heights tonight?
*** UPDATE 5 - 2:35 pm *** Fox Chicago is carrying a live presser by Quinn and Durbin. Click here to watch it live. UPDATE: End. Not much new info.
*** UPDATE 4 - 2:30 pm *** From AFSCME…
Following today’s developments regarding a possible sale of the Thomson Correctional Center to the federal government, AFSCME Council 31 executive director Henry Bayer issued the following statement:
“The governor’s rush to sell Thomson ignores serious questions about the dangerously overcrowded, understaffed Illinois prison system. How can state prisons function safely with more than 45,000 inmates jammed into facilities built for 32,000?
“Events of this week underscore these concerns. Just yesterday, an employee was held hostage for hours by an inmate at a Southern Illinois prison, a standoff that ended with the inmate shot to death. The day before, news reports revealed a secret program that let hundreds of inmates, including violent offenders, walk free after serving just days of their court-ordered sentences.
“Illinois has an oversight process to review the sale. That process should be followed, not short-circuited.”
*** UPDATE 3 - 2:16 pm *** From Dan Hynes…
“As I said at the outset, I have full faith that President Obama would weigh this decision carefully and would never endanger the safety of the people of Illinois, so I trust him to do the appropriate thing regarding Thomson Correctional Center. At this point, however, the process has been ill-served by Governor Quinn.
“At the same time the Governor is asking the people of Illinois to trust him on this difficult issue, which understandably causes some unease, it turns out his administration is secretly releasing criminals, some violent, from prison early, and worse, the Governor didn’t seem to know anything about it. Governor Quinn’s bungled handling of and obfuscation on this program does nothing to instill a climate of competence and confidence that the people of Illinois need at a time and situation like this.
“As the Thomson sale moves forward, we are still waiting for the Governor to give answers to the many questions raised by his secret early release program, and he ought to level with the people of Illinois immediately.”
*** UPDATE 2 - 1:03 pm *** One of the criticisms that Mark Kirk had about the proposed move of the Gitmo prisoners to Thomson was that their trials would be held in Rockford or Chicago, which would “endanger” citizens there. But, like so much else with this hype, it’s not to be…
The Obama administration is planning to hold military commission trials at the Thomson Correctional Center, in addition to housing former Guantanamo detainees there.
Under a plan officials will unveil in the coming days, the administration plans to send some of the detainees to their home countries and others to third countries, some of which operate rehabilitation programs for suspected terrorists.
The Thomson prison could house between 35 and 90 of the Guantanamo detainees, said one source familiar with the discussions.
And Jim Ryan responds…
“Slow down, Governor Quinn. Moving al-Qaeda terrorists into Illinois should not be done after only a single public hearing three days before Christmas.
Governor Quinn, be true to your word and let the people speak. If citizens are really in charge in Illinois, then give them an opportunity to speak their mind on this important issue. Schedule a series of real public hearings after the first of the year to allow us to have our say…”
*** UPDATE 1 - 11:53 am *** Gov. Quinn and Sen. Durbin have released a statement…
Assistant Senate Majority Leader Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Illinois Governor Pat Quinn today praised the decision by the Obama Administration to proceed with the acquisition of a state of the art correctional facility in Thomson, Illinois. Senator Durbin and Governor Quinn issued the following statement:
“Thomson Correctional Center – a high security prison – has been sitting empty for eight years. The Obama Administration has put forward a plan to make it the safest prison in America and we are pleased that they have made this decision. This move will have a tremendously positive impact on the local economy — creating more than 3,000 jobs and injecting more than $1 billion into the local economy. This is an opportunity to dramatically reduce unemployment, create thousands of good-paying jobs and breathe new economic life into this part of downstate Illinois.”
In a letter to Governor Quinn, sent by the U.S. Attorney General, the Director of National Intelligence and the Secretaries of State, Defense and Homeland Security, the federal government has signaled its intention to purchase and operate the prison.
They write: “We write to inform you that the President has directed, with our unanimous support, that the Federal Government proceed with the acquisition of the facility in Thomson. Not only will this help address the urgent overcrowding problem at our nation’s Federal prisons, but it will also help achieve our goal of closing the detention center at Guantanamo in a timely, secure, and lawful manner.”
The letter also addresses security concerns that have been raised about transferring Guantanamo detainees to the Thomson facility: “The security of the facility and the surrounding region is our paramount concern. The facility was built in 2001 to maximum security specifications, and after acquisition it will be enhanced to exceed perimeter security standards at the nation’s only “supermax” prison in Florence, Colorado, where there has never been an escape or external attack . . . The President has no intention of releasing any detainees in the United States. Current law effectively bars the release of the Guantanamo detainees on U.S. soil, and the Federal Government has broad authority under current law to detain individuals during removal proceedings and pending the execution of final removal orders.”
[ *** End of Updates *** ]
* Gov. Quinn is in DC today for a White House meeting on transferring Guantanamo Bay prisoners and other hardcore cons to the state’s empty Thomson facility. The decision apparently came late yesterday…
Quinn’s office had released his schedule for today shortly before 8 p.m. Monday, saying he would be in Chicago for the day. A revised version was released 2 1/2 hours later, saying he would be in Washington “to be briefed on the acquisition of Thomson Correctional Center.”
Not all elected officials were notified as quickly. A spokesman for U.S. Rep. Don Manzullo, the Republican who represents the Thomson area, said Monday night the congressman had not received any official confirmation from the White House regarding an announcement.
* After backing away a bit from his over the top rhetoric against the prisoner transfer, US Senate candidate Mark Kirk is once again in “in full throated opposition,” a Politico writer opines. Check out Kirk’s campaign website and you’ll see this on the front page…
Clicking the “Join us” link leads you to an online petition addressed to President Obama…
As citizens of the State of Illinois, we urge you to put the safety and security of Illinois families first and stop any plan to transfer Al Qaeda terrorists to our state.
* Almost all of the Republican candidates for governor again voiced strong opposition last night during a candidates’ debate. Jim Ryan…
“I think it’s a very bad idea to bring the mastermind of 9-11 to Thomson,” said Ryan. “I have no doubt we can keep him there and he’ll never get out. But no one can tell me there’s no risk.”
“I think that we’ve got an investment in Guantanamo Bay, and that’s where international terrorists ought to be held, tried and kept,” said state Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington. “Thomson (Correctional Center) is a facility we cannot give up right now, particularly in light of the fact the governor is releasing violent inmates.”
“I think al-Qaida terrorists ought to stay in Cuba,” said state Sen. Kirk Dillard of Hinsdale during a debate among GOP hopefuls Monday night. He called the potential move a “pathetic” example of how desperate the Democrat-run state is for money.
Still, he criticized the state management that has allowed a state-of-the-art prison to sit unused because Illinois lacks the money to open it.
“It’s just amazing, the level of incompetence,” Schillerstrom said.
* The Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability will hold a hearing next week in Sterling to discuss the proposed closure. Illinois Review reports that a protest is planned…
Opponents to the prison sale, including Tea Party supporters and a group called “Moms of Soldiers,” are planning a protest outside Madigan’s hearing.
* I wonder if it has occurred to the Quinn administration that this is probably not the best time for a controversy over a “secret” early prisoner release program…
“That is crazy,” said state Rep. Mike Boland of East Moline.
Quinn has shutdown the early release program in question after revelations in the media that prisoners were being cut loose after serving just few days of sentences for crimes like repeat drunken driving, drug possession and weapons violations.
Quinn says the program is now under review. […]
Other lieutenant governor candidates to criticize the early releases exposed by the Associated Press Monday were state Sen. Terry Link of Waukegan, Chicago businessman Scott Cohen and Elmhurst electrician Thomas Castillo.
“When Dan Hynes slings mud he loses ground,” said Quinn.
The governor brushed aside Hynes’ attack. The Quinn campaign was buoyed by the latest Chicago Tribune survey showing the incumbent leading the challenger by a wide margin.
“The voters have made it pretty clear they like my approach to government. I don’t think they like the comptroller’s negative approach to government,” said Quinn.
“Is there something positive about this story? I’m missing that. People are pretty concerned. Eight hundred and fifty people released including some violent criminals. I’m like every other citizen in the state who wants some answers,” said Hynes.
* I’m not sure what, exactly, an “ethics probe” is if it’s conducted by the Illinois Republican Party, but somebody over at HQ apparently doesn’t love Andy McKenna…
Sneed has learned GOP gubernatorial hopeful Andy McKenna is the target of an ethics probe by the Illinois Republican Party, which he once chaired.
• To wit: Sneed is told the Republican State Central Committee, the party’s managerial arm, has authorized an investigation of McKenna’s use of GOP money to commission a poll without consent of fellow party members. The committee claims the poll was used to determine McKenna’s chances of success as a statewide GOP candidate in this election cycle. (Other names of GOP candidates, besides McKenna’s, were used in the poll.)
• To wit II: The Illinois GOP party also cast a dim view of the “high” salaries awarded GOP party employees earlier in the year, but then darted over to McKenna’s campaign when he announced his bid for governor — but it’s unclear if the ethics panel, which has yet to be formed, will include it in the probe.
Do you think a public rebuke by the party will matter?
* Rival GOP candidate Dan Proft claims to have obtained a copy of the poll that McKenna ordered as party chairman. Proft released two pages yesterday with the results redacted. You can download those pages by clicking here.
McKenna polled several top contenders at the time, including Ron Gidwitz, Bill Brady, Matt Murphy, Joe Birkett, Tom Cross, “Bill” [sic] Schillerstrom, Mark Kirk, John Shimkus and himself.
(I)t is clear that Andy McKenna has not been honest with the party when he explains that he hadn’t considered running for office until a groundswell of grassroots organizers and Chicago GOP financiers begged him to run. This is clearly untrue.
What McKenna did as ILGOP Chairman is nothing other than conversion of corporate funds for personal use. At least, that’s how it would be viewed had he done the same thing in the business world, a world he professes to know something about it. It is a typical insider play by a typical insider politician.
Andy McKenna is spending millions of dollars on television advertisements trying to convince himself and unsuspecting Illinois GOP primary voters that he is an “outsider”. It is a curious argument for someone who spent the past five years as the Illinois Republican State Party Chairman to make, but this is Illinois after all where even self-styled reformers go to jail.
I ask the other candidates in the race to join me in demanding that McKenna reimburse the party for the cost of that survey and apologize to competitors of mine with whom he was not forthright.
Lance Trover of the McKenna campaign called IR, and when we asked the campaign’s response to Proft releasing this survey and the allegations of the Proft campaign, Trover said, “We will not comment.”
*** UPDATE *** From a press release…
Senator Bill Brady, Republican candidate for Governor, released the following statement today:
It’s become abundantly clear in recent days that during his time as Illinois Republican Party Chairman, my opponent Andy McKenna, may have violated the conflict-of-interest ethics rules he himself put in place.
McKenna apparently authorized a $25,000 internal poll while he was the Illinois GOP Chairman, that he subsequently used to to determine his chances of success as a statewide republican candidate in this election.
News reports indicate McKenna sanctioned the poll and use of Illinois Republican Party money without the permission of fellow party leaders. His actions reek of impropriety, which is why I am calling on McKenna to come forward and set the record straight.
If Andy McKenna did indeed use $25,000 of his own party’s money for personal use, what’s to say he wouldn’t do it to the taxpayers of Illinois?
Sadly, McKenna is not the only candidate in this race involved in corrupt politics of the past.
Jim Ryan, another of my opponents, took $800,000 in campaign contributions from close friend Stuart Levine, all along claiming he didn’t know Levine was corrupt.
These are perfect examples of Chicago-style politics Illinois so desperately needs a clean break from. Next to jobs and taxes, ethics is of most importance to Illinois and its voters. We need a clean break from the corrupt, unethical politics of the past. Illinois needs a candidate who will fight corruption, not take part in it. I am that candidate.
For two weeks, no one’s been answering the phones in the Clinton and Monroe counties’ WorkNet Center offices — despite stacks of joblessness claims caused by the worst recession in decades.
The reason for the locked offices: St. Clair County still hasn’t hired people to replace the case managers who had once worked there.
The face of suburbia is changing—and so are schools there. For decades, Chicago has educated the vast majority of the region’s low-income, minority, and immigrant students. But that’s shifting, and education issues once considered “urban” are increasingly showing up in suburban schools. It’s placing cultural, academic and financial demands on districts that at one time catered to mostly white, middle-class kids.
This area can take pride in having four schools among 37 statewide recognized by U.S. News & World Report magazine as among the best in the nation.
Bloomington High School, Blue Ridge High School in Farmer City, Gibson City-Melvin-Sibley High School in Gibson City and Tri-Valley High School in Downs each received a bronze medal rating from the magazine in its “America’s Best High Schools” article.
Hundreds of teachers in a suburban Chicago school district will be back in class after more than a week on strike.
Teachers in Prairie Hills District 144 went on strike Dec. 3 because they couldn’t reach an agreement with district officials during contract negotiations. The points of contention were salaries, health insurance and retirement benefits.
* Auditor tells Bloomington its cash reserves are too low
Chicago businessman Scott Cohen says he will spend up to $3 million of his own fortune on his Democratic race for lieutenant governor. […]
He revealed his spending plans at a Daily Herald editorial board interview today and was quickly rebuked by the three other candidates in attendance: state Sen. Terry Link of Waukegan, Elmhurst electrician Thomas Castillo and state Rep. Mike Boland of East Moline.
“I’m not even going to come close to that,” said Link, a veteran Lake County lawmaker. “That is ludicrous for an office of this size.”
The lieutenant governor’s position has no official authority. The lieutenant governor becomes governor if the incumbent state executive is ousted, resigns or is incapacitated as was illustrated by Pat Quinn’s rise to upon Rod Blagojevich’s ouster in January.
Whether fair or not, if it’s his money he can spend it as he wishes.
Boland, by the way, called the revelation of the Quinn administration’s secret early prisoner release program “crazy.” Quinn has now mummed up…
Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn isn’t saying when he first knew his administration was releasing inmates who’d served just weeks in prison.
Quinn on Sunday suspended a program that immediately awarded good-behavior credits to inmates instead of requiring them to spend at least 61 days behind bars. His action came after a report by The Associated Press revealed some inmates locked up less than three weeks.
Quinn said Monday that Corrections Department Director Michael Randle has broad discretion to run the department. He says if there are questions about how something is being done, it’s the governor’s job to review it.
* Meanwhile, Gov. Quinn’s campaign has a new promo video called Jobs, Jobs, Jobs…
UPDATE: The Quinn campaign has issued a new version of this video in response to criticism in comments about the claim over how the capital bill “created” and “saved” jobs. The new text says it will “create” and will “save” those jobs. The new video is now displayed.
* The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee has a new Internet video blasting Mark Kirk…
* Related…
* Auction brings $6.5 million for troubled Springfield hotel: Horve estimated it would cost $35 million to build such a hotel now.
Fred and Rita drove from Harlingen
I can’t remember how I’m kin to them
But when they tried to plug their motor home in
They blew our Christmas lights
Cousin David knew just what went wrong
So we all waited out on our front lawn
He threw a breaker and the lights came on
And we sang ‘Silent Night, Oh Silent Night, Oh Holy Night’
* The Illinois State Rifle Association is not at all happy with Republican gubernatorial candidate Jim Ryan.
Ryan told the Associated Press that he would sign a “narrow” ban on the sale and possession of semiautomatic assault-style weapons…
“I would sign it provided it was narrowly drawn and did not violate our 2nd Amendment rights.”
He also said he’d veto an attempt to legalize concealed carry…
“I would veto. I believe reasonable people can differ on this issue but on balance, drawing from my experience as a law enforcement official, I believe we are better off without concealed-carry.”
“I’ve never seen a suburban Republican try so hard to look like a Chicago Machine Democrat,” is how ISRA-PVF spokesman Richard Pearson characterized the behavior of Republican gubernatorial candidate Jim Ryan. […]
“Ryan’s hostility toward law-abiding firearm owners extends way back to his days as DuPage County State’s Attorney. Ryan’s philosophical distaste for the fundamental rights guaranteed under the 2nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution make him particularly unqualified to serve as Illinois governor. As we saw in 2002, Jim Ryan has slammed the door in the faces of Illinois firearm owners. As primary day draws near, Ryan may find that, if you keep doing the same things over and over, you will keep getting the same result.”
Several people have posted responses on Ryan’s Facebook page, including this one from NRA lobbyist Todd Vandermyde…
Seems like Ryan is up to his old tricks and is not different than Blago was on guns
There have been several well-meaning and respectful people here who have expressed concern about my position on the 2nd Amendment. Please allow me to clarify. Unlike the Democrats, I will not be an activist who works to take away the 2nd Amendment rights of law-abiding Illinois citizens. My priorities are improving …Illinois’ business and jobs climate — and providing ethical, authentic leadership to Springfield. My approach on 2nd Amendment related issues has always been to enforce existing laws rather than creating new ones. My years in law enforcement have influenced me to take a position shared by many law enforcement officials — in opposition to concealed carry and in favor of a narrowly drawn assault weapon ban. While I have a respectful disagreement on this issue with many in Illinois, I think we can all agree this is a big difference from those on the left with an activist agenda of infringing upon your 2nd Amendment rights.
ISRA/NRA has a ton of Illinois members, and if anyone can drive down Ryan’s numbers, it’s them.
* Meanwhile, Zorn asked several candidates why they support rolling back Illinois’ minimum wage to the federal level. Three responded, including Jim Ryan’s spokesman…
JR has always supported a federal minimum wage. Rod Blagojevich’s move to raise Illinois’ MW to a level higher than surrounding states was one of many disastrous decisions he made that has helped make Illinois one of the worst performing economies in America. Those policies have been a disaster for the poorer citizens of our state. Contrary to liberal dogma, unilaterally raising the MW does not help the poor, it hurts them.
* The Daily Herald ran a few outtakes from a recent interview of the GOP gubernatorial candidates. This one is from JRyan…
On former friend Stuart Levine, now a felon: “He ruined his life … I have a clear conscience.”
On not apologizing to Rolando Cruz until running for governor: “I didn’t want to impact the outcome of that case.” (Brian Dugan trial)
On the death penalty: “I do think the state has a right to take a life. The right to life is sacred … but it is conditioned on your behavior.”
On Cruz asking for a meeting with Ryan after the apology: “I haven’t given it much thought. I haven’t excluded the possibility … He knows what I said.”
* Progress Illinois takes gubernatorial candidate Sen. Kirk Dillard to task for saying, again, that the budget can be balanced without a tax hike because he did it under Jim Edgar, who “inherited a mountain of debt” from his predecessor and “left [office with] a billion-and-a-half budget surplus … all without an income tax increase.” From PI…
Dillard’s version of events conveniently omits that Edgar also “inherited” a load of new revenue upon taking office in 1991, thanks to a temporary income tax increase passed in 1989 and made permanent by the new governor. Considering how often Dillard uses this line, it’d be nice to see a reporter respond with the relevant context.
Yes and no. Yes, Edgar did inherit the revenues from that income tax hike, but those revenues weren’t new and most of it had already been put into the budget’s spending base. Edgar didn’t get the “Governor No” moniker for nothing. He did hold the line on major spending increases.
More importantly, though, Edgar benefited from an absolutely huge surge in tax receipts from the Wall Street tech boom during the mid-to-late 1990s. It wasn’t the 1989 tax hike so much, but the boom and the cutting which led to the surplus. What followed Edgar’s departure was a George Ryan spending spree. The structural deficit was exacerbated and then we were hit with 9/11 and have never recovered.
* All but one gubernatorial candidate, Andy McKenna, will appear at a Republican debate in Springfield tonight.
* In other news, AFSCME endorsed Judy Baar Topinka for comptroller. Topinka was the only statewide Republican to get the union’s nod.
* This is what happens when you are a good campaigner and a mediocre governor, and when your good campaign sensibilities don’t translate into sound governing…
Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn has suspended a prison program that allowed repeat drunk drivers, drug users and even people convicted of battery and weapons violations to serve less than three weeks’ total time behind bars.
Records obtained and analyzed by The Associated Press show that since September more than 850 inmates were released weeks earlier than they ordinarily would be. The Corrections Department was saving money by abandoning a policy that requires inmates to serve at least 61 days and awarding them discretionary good-conduct credit immediately upon entering prison.
That means some prisoners have enough good-conduct days to qualify for release almost immediately — before they’ve had a chance to demonstrate any conduct at all. The inmates are kept at the department’s prison processing centers and released after as few as 11 days.
Jorge Bogas spent just 18 days behind bars for aggravated driving under the influence after he hit two cars, hospitalizing one motorist for weeks, while driving the wrong direction on Interstate 57. Bogas sat five days in Cook County Jail, was transferred to the processing center at Stateville Correctional Center in Joliet and released 13 days later.
The campaign self-preservation mode only kicked in when campaigner Quinn was notified about what Gov. Quinn was doing. Typical. Dan Hynes responds via press release…
“The details emerging about the Quinn administration’s secret prisoner release program are deeply troubling, and I think the people of Illinois deserve answers. The Governor’s decision to suspend this program is the right one, and I support his pledge to conduct a ‘top-to-bottom’ review. Given the apparent confusion and misinformation on display yesterday surrounding this program, I would encourage Governor Quinn to begin his review at the top, starting with himself and his top staff. The people of Illinois have the right to know who implemented this program, who signed off on it, whether anyone, and who, will be held accountable, and ultimately, who is in charge on such obvious issues of public safety.
“Given the Governor’s recent misadventures in transparency — including the abrupt resignation of a top aide amid an inquiry for politicking on state time, his refusal to acknowledge his campaign’s effort to knock an opponent off the ballot, and his administration’s outright refusal to allow a news outlet to investigate allegations of decrepit conditions at one of our state’s juvenile justice centers — where the press and the public have been stonewalled on matters large and small, I encourage this review to be conducted in public. Furthermore, given the potential immediate safety risk to communities across Illinois, I strongly encourage the review to be completed and the public made fully aware of its findings within a matter of days. Governor Quinn’s pattern of appointing blue-ribbon commissions will not suffice on this matter.”
* AFSCME decided Saturday to remain neutral in the governor’s race. That’s been anticipated for quite some time, but it’s still a big blow to Hynes because it shows that the state employees union isn’t confident that he can defeat Quinn, with whom the union will have to deal after the election.
* Meanwhile, my statewide, syndicated weekly newspaper column takes another look at the politics of the budget…
Last week we all celebrated - or bemoaned - the first anniversary of Rod Blagojevich’s arrest. After Blagojevich was impeached and removed from the governor’s office, I, like most others, thought things were going to be different with Pat Quinn in charge.
But the Statehouse bickering continues, and the gridlock over the state’s paralyzing and mind-boggling budget deficit is almost as bad as ever. Heck, it may even be worse.
You probably know by now that Gov. Quinn wants to take out a $500 million short-term loan and use about half of it to help pay some of the state’s bills during the holiday season - particularly focusing on private, not-for-profit human service agencies that take care of the poor, the infirm and the aged.
Comptroller Dan Hynes and Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias both must sign off on the borrowing, but Hynes said “no” earlier this month. Among other things, Hynes says there’s no money to pay off the loan and likened the idea to using one credit card to pay down another one. Ironically enough, Quinn nixed a similar idea when he was state treasurer back in the 1990s.
After much back-and-forth bickering between Quinn and Hynes, things seemed to calm down for a few days. Then, Quinn said last week that he wasn’t going to continue harping on Hynes’ refusal to approve the borrowing plan. At the same time, though, he couldn’t resist getting in a shot at his Democratic primary opponent and even attempted to link him to the disgraced Blagojevich.
“A year ago, with the previous governor under arrest, the comptroller signed off on a $1.4 billion short-term borrowing plan,” Quinn said. “I don’t know, if you’re going to do that, at that time, and a year later, running for office, saying you can’t borrow money to help human beings get paid in the month of December, the holiday season … I think he’s missing the boat on that.”
Quinn then said he was dropping the subject.
“But we’re not going to beat that horse,” he said. “If (Hynes) has his position, we just have to move on.”
But it was clear a couple of days later that Quinn was not at all intending to “move on.” Quinn addressed the Governor’s Conference on Aging last week and pledged to “get the necessary funds to pay our bills,” then added, “even if the comptroller is blocking my plan.”
AARP Illinois also held a news conference that day to warn that 200 human services agencies that deal with senior citizens could be out of business in a matter of weeks if the state doesn’t start making good on its overdue bills soon.
Hynes may be right about the narrow fiscal issues at hand - that there is no available money to pay off the proposed loan, that the state will need to use a third of its revenues to pay off its short-term loans in March and April and that the new loan would cover only 5 percent of the state’s overdue bills - but this is a political time bomb, particularly in a Democratic primary race. We’re talking about human service agencies that serve lots of poor people. It doesn’t take a media expert to figure out how to spin that one.
Of course, this would’ve been a much more effective bludgeon had Quinn not so thoroughly muffed the issue earlier this month by attacking Hynes with the false claim that Giannoulias was supporting the loan.
Still, we can expect more and more stories on this growing crisis. It’s the holidays, and this is a ready-made story for the season. Quinn can come off looking compassionate, while Hynes is in real danger of being portrayed as a fussbudget who is more worried about numbers and making Quinn look bad in advance of the primary than he is about real people.
Chicago’s WLS-TV (Channel 7) - the top-rated news station in the region - ran its second long story on this topic last week. In the piece, Rep. Greg Harris (D-Chicago) is featured, demanding that political leaders “put aside our partisan differences, our political aspirations, and take emergency action now.”
That’s the sort of comment we undoubtedly will see more of as the rest of the media begins to pay attention to this topic. It’s a high-stakes game. Unfortunately, there are a lot of “little people” in the middle who are melting down while the state dithers.
* It’s that time again. Nominations are now open for our third annual Golden Horseshoe award.
Today’s categories are…
1) Best state legislative staffer
2) Best state legislative secretary/admin assistant
3) Best political bar/restaurant in Springfield (must be currently operational)
4) Best IL state agency director
As before, please keep in mind that this contest is not just based on the number of votes, but on the intensity of each vote. So, if you don’t explain your vote, or don’t explain it well, it will have far less weight or not be counted at all, depending on my mood.
Also, no negativity and no snark. Thanks.
I’ll announce the winners tomorrow during our second round of voting.
* So, how much of a threat is Patrick Hughes to Mark Kirk? Not much so far…
Kirk 41
Thomas 3
Hughes 3
Arrington 2
Martin 2
Lowery 1
Zadek 1
Other cand. (Vol.) 1
Undecided 46
Yes, the undecideds represent 46 percent of the vote, but that 41-3 Kirk-Hughes lead is gonna be incredibly tough to overcome, to say the very least. According to the Tribune poll, just 8 percent of voters have heard enough about Hughes to rate him.
Even Hughes’ own claimed recent polling shows he’s in serious trouble. From a press release…
A recent survey conducted on December 9th and 10th by Wilson Research Strategies of 600 likely Republican primary voters, shows the race for Illinois’ open U.S. Senate seat is largely undecided. 63% of voters indicated that they are undecided about who they will vote for in the February 2nd Primary. 28% of voters indicated they were leaning towards Congressman Mark Kirk and 5% were leaning towards Hinsdale developer Patrick Hughes. Looking closer at the numbers only 7% of voters polled indicated that they were Definitely voting for Kirk while 2% indicated they were Definitely voting for Hughes. No other candidate polled higher than 1%.
Hughes does go on to claim this, however…
When information was given to the voters about Mark Kirk’s support for Cap and Trade support for Hughes surges to 47% and the support for Kirk drops to 13%
Kirk flip-flop explained. You don’t need a weather man to know which way that wind blows.
Kirk is even leading among “very conservative” voters. That could change if Hughes can get his act together, but so far he hasn’t. Hughes sent out a single mailer to quite a few GOP voters a week or so ago, but that won’t get him very far. Even interested voters will only look at a mailer for a few seconds before tossing it in the garbage.
“Thinking now about Senate candidate Mark Kirk - compared to your political beliefs, do you think Kirk is too conservative on the issues, not conservative enough, or do you mostly agree with him on the issues?”…
From the pollster…
Voter composition in a primary can change over time. The current poll yielded 76% of likely voters who describe themselves as conservative, 37% very conservative, up from the previous results.
In four previous GOP primary polls, Jan., ’08, Dec. ’07, March ’06, and Feb. ’06, total conservatives ranged from 64% to 66% including 21% to 26% very conservative. Who is on the ballot may affect composition of voter turnout. But it is also likely that national politics is having an effect on elections this year.
So, the GOP electorate is getting more “very conservative” than in years past, but it’s still probably not enough to defeat Kirk in a primary with anyone in this field.
Conservative polling history…
Notice that the number of Republicans who once defined themselves as “moderate” dropped to 29 percent. That is partially because so many of those people left the party.
Nearly half of voters who call themselves conservatives said they are undecided in the contest. About the same number of conservative voters said they did not know when asked if Kirk’s ideology was too conservative or not conservative enough.
But Hughes’ candidacy represents an emerging, and very real, challenge for GOPers: In an era of tea partiers, the centrist Kirk has to move to the right to win a primary. Those moves have already cost Kirk, as Planned Parenthood and environmental groups have repudiated him for recent statements. Conservative challengers to more centrist favorites in NH, FL, OH, CO and other states could make those favorites move to the right.
Dems have been hammering Kirk for his rightward move, and they stand ready to do the same for the more moderate candidates in other states. Kirk has a big lead, and one has to wonder whether he needed to leap so quickly to his right, given his lead in the primary. Other centrists should look to their own poll results to see just how much of a threat conservative candidates really are; it might make their general election mission of appealing to centrist voters all that much easier.
Kirk, whose centrist positions on certain issues have led to some speculation about his primary vulnerability, is not over 50 percent. But no other candidate appears to have asserted him- or herself as a strong alternative with a month and a half to go in the primary.
Jackson is doing significantly better in the Tribune poll than in any of the other surveys. Hoffman is about the same. After getting a bump in November, Giannoulias is about the same.
Giannoulias’ strongest geographic support came from collar-county primary voters, 48 percent of whom backed his bid compared with 14 percent for Hoffman and 8 percent for Jackson. Among Chicago voters, Giannoulias and Jackson were virtually tied at around 30 percent support, while the treasurer held a 28 percent to 16 percent edge over Jackson in the Cook County suburbs, where 40 percent of voters said they were undecided.
If Jackson has the money to compete, she’ll likely come close to sweeping the African-American vote and may do significantly better with women. Whether that’s enough to be victorious will depend on whether Hoffman can somehow jump-start his campaign and Meister can gain a little traction. Meister is focusing on the gay and gay friendly vote as his base, and that’s not inconsequential. Still, Boyd was removed from the ballot, but still outpaced Meister, who has put serious money into his campaign.
Name rec…
You can probably downplay the generic name rec numbers in these contests. It’s probably better to focus on the percentage of people who know enough about the candidates to rate them. A good example of this is Robert Marshall, a radiologist who practices in Kankakee and Joliet. He’s never run for office as a Democrat and has received almost zero coverage, yet 24 percent claimed to have heard of him. Only four percent knew enough about him to rate him, however, and that’s probably too high.
If you look at the name rec numbers that way, you get this…
Giannoulias 39
Jackson 20
Hoffman 15
Marshall 4
Meister 3
Back to the story…
The survey found plenty of room for movement before the Feb. 2 primary elections, with 35 percent of Democratic voters saying they were undecided. The major contenders only recently have begun to roll out their campaigns on the TV airwaves.
Methodology…
This Chicago Tribune Poll is based on interviews of confirmed registered voters likely to vote in the February 2nd Democratic and Republican primaries. In 2008, Illinois primary elections were moved to the first Tuesday in February - for both presidential and off-year state office contests. Before then, primaries were held on the third Tuesday in March. Interviewing was conducted December 2nd to the 8th.
State samples of 600 were interviewed for each state primary. Potential margin of error for each sample is +/- 4.0% at the 95% confidence level. Likely voting was determined based on scale question response.
That last sentence apparently means they didn’t use a voter file to determine likely voters in any of these polls. So, this survey probably captures a lot of low-information voters.
Among the 600 likely Democratic primary voters surveyed by telephone Dec. 2-8, Quinn had the support of 49 percent to 23 percent for Hynes, the three-term comptroller. Among other candidates, activist William “Dock” Walls had 3 percent, and attorney Ed Scanlan had 2 percent. An additional 21 percent were undecided; 2 were for others. The poll has an error margin of 4 percentage points.
Early benchmark polling for Quinn had him leading Hynes 54-to-26, with other polls showing similar results. […]
Recent polling conducted by other statewide Democratic candidates show Quinn ahead of Hynes 50-to-38 and 50-to-35, sources say.
So, Hynes is either regressing back to the days before he spent over $2 million on TV ads, or he hasn’t moved up since this race began. Hynes has been able to slightly lower Quinn’s numbers, but he’s stuck. Bad. Very bad.
Quinn job approval among Democrats…
That’s pretty darned huge for an incumbent governor with an $11 billion deficit who’s been hit hard in TV ads by his Democratic primary opponent and one GOP opponent (McKenna).
“Do you approve or disapprove of how Pat Quinn is handling state budget issues?”…
Voters also approve of Quinn’s handling of ethics reform in the post-Blagojevich era by a nearly 2-1 ratio and gave him a similar advantage over Hynes when asked which candidate would better eliminate corruption.
The beauty of the Tribune posting their full questions and answers is that we know from the polling memo that Quinn’s 2-1 ratio on his handling of ethics reforms works is actually 42-22. Not party time, but not bad considering all the heat he’s taken on the editorial pages. As far as which candidate would be better at “eliminating” corruption in government (a goofy premise, to be sure), 34 percent said Quinn and 16 percent said Hynes. 15 percent said “none” and 29 percent didn’t know.
Back to the Tribune’s narrative…
Hynes could try to link Quinn to Blagojevich. Quinn served two terms as Blagojevich’s lieutenant governor and has refused to apologize for backing Blagojevich. During the 2006 re-election campaign, Quinn defended Blagojevich as someone who has “always been a person who’s honest and one of integrity,” despite myriad investigations into his administration.
Maybe. Just 11 percent of Dems said they were less likely to support Quinn when reminded that the governor “ran twice as Lieutenant Governor and running-mate to former Governor Rod Blagojevich.” From what I’ve been told, polling for both Democratic candidates shows that a Blagojevich attack just doesn’t work well against Quinn.
Also, Democrats are split on whether a tax hike is necessary, with 42 percent saying it is necessary and 47 percent saying it isn’t - even though both candidates are pushing for a tax hike…
Among Quinn’s supporters, 57 percent said they believed a tax increase is needed, while 38 percent of Hynes’ backers said they think one is necessary.
That’s one big reason why Hynes has been slamming Quinn on taxes. At least that part of his message is working.
* On to the Republicans and a big Jim Ryan lead…
The Trib says that this is a name ID race so far, and they may be right…
Notice in the head-to-heads that 37 percent of Republicans classify themselves as “very conservative.” That’s why the far right is so hopeless statewide.
The Tribune results are pretty close to Adam Andrzejewski’s poll taken in mid November, except that Andrzejewski scores much lower in the Tribune poll. The Trib’s new numbers are in parentheses…
Jim Ryan 30% (26%)
Adam Andrzejewski 11% (6%)
Bill Brady 11% (10%)
Andy McKenna 10% (12%)
Kirk Dillard 7% (9%)
Bob Schillerstrom 3% (2%)
Dan Proft 2% (2%)
Andy McKenna has spent a fortune on TV ads in the weeks since that Andrzejewski poll was taken, but he hasn’t budged.
The Trib asked: “All of the Republicans running for Governor oppose increasing state government taxes. How important is a candidate’s opposition to a state tax increase in deciding on a choice for Governor?” The answers were predictable…
Dillard and Ryan’s recent open-mindedness to a tax hike won’t help there, but just 45 percent said it was likely that the winner would keep his promise to oppose tax hikes, while 49 percent said it wasn’t likely he’d keep it.
But it is the 31 percent of undecided voters that makes the outcome of the contest far from certain as candidates use the post-New Year holiday period to ramp up TV advertising and telephone pitches. A majority isn’t necessary to win the nomination — in 2006, Judy Baar Topinka won a four-way primary with 38 percent of the vote.
The race has been pretty much static since Jim Ryan declared his intentions. Dillard’s TV blitz during the Tribune’s polling period didn’t help at all. Maybe the voters will change their minds come the big (and, don’t forget, very crowded) January hoo-ha, but unless somebody’s message really catches fire, this is Ryan’s race to lose.
Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York urged the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Friday to close shipping locks on a waterway south of Chicago that could provide a pathway for the carp to reach Lake Michigan.
And to do that, there needs to be more work done on the Chicago Region Environmental and Transportation Efficiency (CREATE) Program to improve freight, passenger and automobile traffic, according to U.S. Rep. Daniel Lipinski.[…]
“You cannot have efficient passenger train service without the freight rail out of the way,” Lipinski said. “They’re all using the same track.”
The DuPage Water Commission lost $19 million and its managers want you to foot the bill to clean up their mess.
It’s not clear what happened. Forensic auditors are crunching numbers and pricey lawyers are investigating. Meanwhile, water rates likely will be increasing.
A procurement policy adopted by aldermen in 2006 has done little to boost the number of contracts awarded to businesses owned by women and minorities.
Less than 2 percent of city contracts went to minority- and women-owned firms in 2006. And today, about 2 percent of those contracts are held by minority-owned companies, while another 2 percent are held by businesses owned by women, said Ron Moore, the city’s diversity procurement officer.
Conaty’s contract was not renewed, a station spokeswoman confirmed. His last Channel 32 appearance is expected to be on this weekend’s “Fox Chicago Sunday,” which was to be taped Friday and air Sunday morning at 8:30.
Of those who launched WFLD’s news operation under Fox in 1987, Conaty was among the last remaining few still at the station along with 9 p.m. anchor Robin Robinson and reporter Anne Kavanagh, whose contract was not renewed in July but has remained a regular contributor.
“We appreciate all of Jack’s hard work and dedication during his time with Fox Chicago,” a station statement said.
Citadel Broadcasting Corp., the nation’s third-biggest radio company and parent of Chicago’s WLS-AM 890 and WLS-FM 94.7, is preparing to file a prearranged bankruptcy before the end of the year, according to the Wall Street Journal and later the New York Times.
Citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter, the newspapers said the proposal presented this week to creditors — and reportedly supported by many — would have lenders trade a substantial amount of the $2 billion they’re owed for 99.5 percent equity in the reorganized company, which would have about $760 million in debt. […]
Citadel loaded up on debt to fund its acquisition of Walt Disney Co.’s ABC Radio stations, but not Radio Disney or ESPN Radio, in 2006, not a particularly good time to be in radio acquisition mode, it turned out.
Apparently, the bad karma from giving Rod Blagojevich his own show was just too much for the company. [/snark]
Reports of Roe Conn’s demise — like that of another Midwestern humorist — have been greatly exaggerated. In fact, the Chicago radio veteran is close to signing a new deal to continue as afternoon personality on Citadel Broadcasting news/talk WLS-AM (890).
Barring a last-minute snafu, sources said, Conn is expected to sign a two-year renewal any day now, superseding his current contract, which expires June 1. In exchange for the additional security, he’s likely to accept a reduction in his previously reported seven-figure salary.
The only obstacle to finalizing the deal could come from Citadel Broadcasting’s top bosses, who were reported to be preoccupied Thursday preparing to file for bankruptcy by the end of the year. Such a move would allow the company to restructure its $2 billion debt.
Word of Conn’s renewal comes despite speculation that his days are numbered at WLS. After the latest Arbitron survey showed him significantly underperforming the rest of the station, the Sun-Times’ Lewis Lazare cited unnamed “observers in the local radio market” who asserted that “the high-priced WLS talent might not be able to hold on at the station much longer.” My friends at the ever-vigilant ChicagolandRadioandMedia.com went even further, declaring it “the end of the line for Roe Conn at WLS,” and identifying three potential replacements for him.
Roe is the coolest, most down-to-earth millionaire I’ve ever met. Glad he’s staying put.
“Why should the voters of Cook County have confidence in a poll conducted by a newspaper whose owner and chairman of the board has made sizable campaign contributions to political opponents of President Stroger? We believe this owner has been the driving force behind the Chicago Tribune’s relentless negative reporting of President Stroger and his administration,” the Stroger campaign statement read.
In the weeks preceding the 2006 Democratic primary, Zell, a real estate magnate with no interest in Tribune at the time, donated $75,000 to Cook County Board Commissioner Forrest Claypool, D-Chicago. Claypool was running against Stroger’s father, John, who was seeking a fourth term as president.
John Stroger was incapacitated by a stroke before the primary, but won, and the Cook County Democratic Party put his son, Todd Stroger, on the general election ballot in his place. Todd Stroger went on to defeat Commissioner Tony Peraica, R-Riverside, to whom Zell donated $30,000.
WUIS/Illinois Public Radio statehouse reporter Amanda Vinicky is back in the United States after spending a week in Germany learning about media and culture.
Vinicky was one of 16 young journalists from the U.S. selected by the German-American Fulbright Commission to visit the country. Journalists from radio, television, newspapers and web outlets all took part in the trip.
“The whole thing was absolutely amazing,” said Vinicky.
* MWRD President Terry O’Brien is releasing his own polling results today in an attempt to counter the Tribune’s poll showing him in last place in the Cook County Board President’s race and trailing badly.
The O’Brien poll was conducted by Cooper & Secrest November 11-17 of 605 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/-4%.
The polling memo, which can be downloaded by clicking here, claims that “Dorothy Brown is likely a temporary frontrunner” and, of course, claims that O’Brien is “positioned to emerge as the ultimate winner.”
O’Brien’s head-to-heads compared to the Trib’s.
*** UPDATE *** I don’t know how I did this, but I screwed up the poll numbers. Preckwinkle is at 16 and O’Brien is at 15. Oops. Sorry about that…
Brown 29% (80% name rec) - Trib: 29% Preckwinkle 16% (52% name rec) - Trib: 20% O’Brien 15% (39% name rec) - Trib: 11% Stroger 13% (96% name rec) - Trib: 14%
More from O’Brien’s pollster…
Just 13% of all primary voters are strong Brown voters… 16% are weak
The memo also touts O’Brien’s second place finish despite being the least well known of the candidates. And it points to Preckwinkle’s four votes for pay raises.
Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Capitol Fax Blog Advertising Department
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A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Illinois voters finds Giannoulias ahead of Kirk 42% to 39%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and 15% are undecided.
In October, the two men were tied at 41% each. In mid-August, Kirk held a modest 41% to 38% lead over Giannoulias.
So, Giannoulias has managed to flip the numbers since August. The other Democrats still trail Kirk, but they’re closing the gap…
Kirk remains ahead of another Democratic hopeful, Cheryle Jackson, president of the Chicago Urban League and a former top aide to disgraced Governor Rod Blagojevich, but his lead has shrunk dramatically. Ahead of Jackson by 17 points – 47% to 30% - in October, he now leads just 42% to 39%. Four percent (4%) like another candidate, and 15% are not sure.
The Republican holds a similar 42% to 38% lead over Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, another contender for the Democratic senatorial nomination. Kirk led Hoffman 43% to 33% in October. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided, while three percent (3%) favor another candidate.
* Meanwhile…
Fifty-one percent (51%) approve of Governor Pat Quinn’s performance. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove. But Illinois voters are nearly three times as likely to strongly disapprove rather than strongly approve of the job he’s doing.
President Obama’s Illinois approval/disapproval numbers are 58-42, and that’s way better than Rasmussen’s national number of 47-51. Running against Obama is not a great idea here.
A proposal has been made to house some Guantanamo prison inmates in Illinois at the Thomson correctional facility. Do you favor or oppose housing Guantanamo prisoners at the Thomson correctional facility in Illinois?
39% Favor
51% Oppose
10% Not sure
No surprise there. The crosstabs show that Republicans oppose the plan 70-28, while a plurality of Democrats support it, 49-37.
His support remains soft, but the opposition is strengthening.
Afghanistan is becoming somewhat of an issue in the Democratic US Senate primary, with Cheryle Jackson and David Hoffman questioning the president’s new plan. But the crosstabs show large support for the president’s proposal among Democrats. 62 percent of Democrats “overall” favor the plan, 60 percent of liberals back it and 82 percent of African-Americans support it as well. Jackson is the most opposed of all the candidates, but that issue doesn’t appear to work well with African-American voters.
How it was done…
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted by Rasmussen Reports December 9, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
*** UPDATE 1 *** From a Mark Kirk press release…
Kirk Widens Lead over Giannoulias among Key Independent Voters to 34 Points in Latest Rasmussen Poll
Survey Shows Kirk and Giannoulias Remain in Statistical Dead Heat despite Democrat’s Network TV Ad Blitz
Northbrook, Ill. – A non-partisan poll released by Rasmussen Reports today shows Republican Congressman and Navy veteran Mark Kirk widening his lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias among key independent voters to 34 points despite Giannoulias’ early launch of network television ads to boost his numbers.
Responding to TV ads launched by Democrat David Hoffman, Giannoulias launched his own network television ad campaign at the beginning of the month to boost his name recognition and favorable ratings. But according to the Rasmussen survey, Kirk maintains a 50-32 favorable to unfavorable rating compared to Giannoulias’ 48-36 fav/unfav. Kirk holds a net positive strongly favorable/unfavorable rating of 13-8 while Giannoulias holds an even intensity ratio of 14-14.
The survey released today shows Kirk leading Giannoulias among key independent voters 54-20. In October, Rasmussen showed Kirk leading Giannoulias among this group 53-24. While the October poll showed both Kirk and Giannoulias at 41 with a 4.5-point margin of error, the survey released today shows Giannoulias with a slight 42-39 edge – remaining a statistical dead heat within the margin of error. A November 3rd poll by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies showed Kirk with a 44-38 advantage.
“Despite more than a week of Giannoulias network television advertising, Congressman Kirk widened his lead over Alexi Giannoulias among key independent voters to 34 points without any television advertising from his own campaign,” Kirk spokesman Eric Elk said. “In addition, the survey shows Congressman Kirk and Alexi Giannoulias remain in a statistical dead heat. With a proven record of fighting tax increases, reining in spending and spurring economic growth, Congressman Mark Kirk brings the experience, integrity and reform-minded leadership Illinois needs to create jobs, end corruption and get our state back on track.”
*** UPDATE 2 *** From Giannoulias spokesperson Kati Phillips…
“Bizarre press release aside (which shows him losing), Mark Kirk can’t hide the fact that voters tend not to like flip-floppers who put politics before principles. Whether it’s having it both ways on earmarks, women’s rights, cap n trade, or Sarah Palin’s endorsement, voters know a pander bear when they see one.”
It almost goes without saying that Illinois Democrats have a whole lot of problems on their hands.
They gave us Rod Blagojevich and Todd Stroger. Their state government stewardship has resulted in bone-crushing budget deficits and threats of higher taxes.
Their control of Cook County resulted in the highest sales taxes in the country for parts of Chicago. Their control of the mayor’s office resulted in a short-sighted sale of the parking meters, which then resulted in skyrocketing user costs and the emptying of a permanent trust fund for a one-year government bailout.
Blagojevich’s federal corruption trial will catapult him — and the Democratic Party — back into the headlines every day throughout next summer if all goes as planned.
Stroger will probably lose the Democratic primary come February, but he’ll still be in office all next year, no doubt generating ever more controversy and woe for his party.
The horrific state budget deficit isn’t going to get any better. The General Assembly probably won’t increase taxes soon, but an easy case can be made that they’re planning to do it right after the November election.
We just found out that some of those fancy privatized parking meters don’t work in the cold, and one can only guess what the next bungle will be on that front.
Add to all of this the utter cluelessness of the national House and Senate Democrats, who have obviously failed to understand the lesson that the 1994 Republican landslide was brought on as much by the Democrats’ failure to enact real health-care reform as anything else, and you’re looking at serious, serious trouble.
But, of course, there’s more. There’s always more. One thing that few have discussed so far is who might be on the Democratic statewide ticket next fall.
For instance, every Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor is a potential land mine.
Rep. Michael Boland (D-East Moline) awarded a legislative scholarship to the daughter of his largest campaign contributor. After the University of Illinois admissions scandal, Boland is particularly vulnerable to attack.
Sen. Rickey Hendon (D-Chicago) has been a favorite media target for years. He makes no bones at all about using his office to help his friends and supporters. While he gets points in my book for blunt honesty, the media will have a field day with the guy.
Rep. Art Turner (D-Chicago) has been a member of the House Democratic leadership forever, and part of that job is taking a huge number of “bad” votes — which will be problematic if he steps into the limelight.
Sen. Terry Link (D-Waukegan) was dragged into a petition fraud case back in 2008. Even though he was never charged and it doesn’t look like he was involved, it won’t be tough for the opposition to use that ugly episode to smear him, along with whoever is at the top of the ticket. Like Turner, Link is a longtime member of the legislative leadership, so his voting record and his fund-raising history are undoubtedly full of land mines.
Even an unknown could bring trouble. Scott Lee Cohen’s money comes from a string of pawn shops — not exactly a beloved business.
Individually, most of these issues probably aren’t enough to sink the ticket. But considering the already dangerous climate for Democrats, they could add to the overall picture of a once-proud party in meltdown.
The campaigns of Pat Quinn and Dan Hynes are so focused on winning the gubernatorial primary that they’ve barely had time to think about gaming out the scenarios when one of the “lite guv” candidates is nominated. But they are definitely nervous, and they should be.
* The Question: What state and local Democratic woes did I miss? Explain.
* I’m not sure why WBEZ is being blocked from accessing some juvenile prisons where the station has eye-witness reporting that shines a negative light on the facilities, but WBEZ isn’t happy about it…
You may not think what goes on in Illinois’ youth prisons affects you. Think again. Thousands of teenagers from all across the state cycle in and out of Illinois’ eight juvenile prisons each year. What happens to them inside goes back with them to their communities. Taxpayers are footing the more-than-$100 million budget for these places. We want to be able to see for ourselves how they’re run and bring that information to you. But Governor Pat Quinn says no.
From the story…
Eighteen-year-old Brandon, who asked that we not use his last name, has spent nearly a third of his life in jails and prisons for kids in Illinois. He avoided solitary until this year, when he got in a fight near the end of his sentence. He says the harsh conditions made solitary confinement at the St. Charles facility west of Chicago something he’s unlikely to forget. For example, he says your food is handed to you through a small slot in the door. It’s not on one big tray, it’s on several small trays and they come through quickly. The first day he learned not to set the trays on the floor.
BRANDON: Rodents kept climbing on my food. When I set it down, they ran across the floor, ran over my food and ran around the room like six more times and I didn’t see it after that. There’s rats in there. Rats, there’s roaches all in there. On average, you’ll see like seven rats a day. Nine, 10 rats a day, yourself. Not including what everybody else din saw. […]
Brandon says there was feces smeared onto the tiles. He never took a shower during his two week stint in isolation. Brandon doesn’t have too much good to say about the education he received either. He graduated from the prison high school system but he says it was a joke.
WBEZ wanted to get into the St. Charles facility, but the governor’s office wouldn’t grant it, instead offering access to another facility…
These are certainly troubling allegations that merit further investigation to see if they’re true, or partially true, or if the kids are telling tall tales. But Governor Quinn is refusing to let WBEZ inside the Department of Juvenile Justice facilities to see how they’re run, for both the kids and the taxpayers of Illinois. After four months of meetings, emails and phone conversations, WBEZ was invited to go on a single supervised tour of the prison in Chicago, which kids say is much much better than St. Charles in the western suburbs. Quinn said no to WBEZ’s repeated requests for a reporter to spend four days during business hours sitting in classes and visiting other parts of the prison in St. Charles. That’s the same facility where a 16-year-old committed suicide in September.
You can hear the governor’s office response by going here. The answers are pretty weak, particularly considering the allegations…
[Guv’s spokesman Bob Reed]: Let me be clear. We didn’t bar them from all facilities. We offered a tour of the Chicago facility. Your editors decided that that was not the necessary access the station needed to tell its story.
[WBEZ reporter Rob Wildeboer]: Ok. So, do you think that, on a one tour of one facility, we will get a comprehensive, in-depth insight into a $100 million department that services thousands of kids every year in facilities across the state? Do you think we’ll get an in-depth understanding of that department in one tour?
REED: I don’t think you would get an in-depth understanding of that if you toured every facility you wanted, whenever you wanted, for any length of time. This is a long, long process and one of the reasons the governor’s staff wants to take a look at the system is to make sure it has an understanding of what is occurring there.
WILDEBOER: And, again, how would WBEZ doing the same thing at the same time interfere with that at all?
REED: We don’t think it’s appropriate for the press to go in, talk to juveniles who are in our charge. We’re really concerned about protecting their identities, their privacy.
WBEZ has been working on this story and attempting to negotiate with the administration for four months. It’s easy to see why the station is so upset here, particularly since Vinny Schiraldi, who runs the juvenile prison system in Washington, DC, was so open with the station and ridiculed the governor’s reasoning…
SCHIRALDI: Too many juvenile justice systems use those confidentiality rights to protect themselves as ways to protect themselves as opposed to protecting the confidentiality of the kids.
As I’ve been researching juvenile prisons over the last few months, a number of people have suggested I visit D.C., it has a good reputation for rehabilitating kids. I contacted them this week and Schiraldi called me back the same day.
WILDEBOER: I was hoping to come down and visit you guys there. Would that be possible?
SCHIRALDI: Yeah. Absolutely. Come any time you want. Yeah, I told Reggie that, just set it up for, I think next week, you wanted to set it up for? Or this week? I don’t know. Reggie’s going to deal with you on that.
Reggie is Reggie Sanders, the public information officer.
SCHIRALDI: There’s a great school at the facility. You know, you can hang around there, be where the kids are playing basketball. There’s a bunch of cool stuff you can take pictures of, but you’ll pretty much have free reign when you come.
And yet the state says “No way.” This is open government? C’mon.
* After a rough patch when he was talking about Barack Obama being a “socialist” and catering to the tea party crowd, Republican gubernatorial candidate Kirk Dillard seems to be softening his hard-line stances of late and returning to his more moderate roots.
“I have no designs to raise any taxes,” [Dillard] said.
But Dillard, unlike his fellow Republican candidates for governor, maintained that all options should be considered, including tax increases.
He said it doesn’t make sense to eliminate an option, like his opponents mostly have.
“I’m saying that some of them are pandering,” said Dillard.
Rival Republican state Sen. Bill Brady shot back…
“I believe any politician that opens the door for a tax increase puts in jeopardy Illinois jobs,” said Brady.
Illinois Review claimed this week that Dillard had sought the endorsement of the Illinois Education Association. If he did, yesterday’s comments make even more sense.
If former Illinois Attorney General Jim Ryan wins his bid for governor, the Elmhurst Republican says he will focus on cutting spending, but be open minded to tax hikes once the recession clears.
“If we do everything humanly possible,” Ryan said of the spending cuts and landmark reforms he is proposing, “then I would look at revenue enhancements.”
“But not before the recession is over,” Ryan quickly added during a tapping of WBBM 780AM’s At Issue program on Thursday.
During the program, Ryan didn’t identify a single state program that should be cut. He also backed away from his previous support of SB750, the tax swap plan…
Ryan had previously endorsed a plan to reduce property taxes in exchange for an increase in the income tax, but he says now that is a bad idea given the economy. He also says he has looked at other states that have a similar tax structure and seen the switch, intended to better fund education, doesn’t work as well as promised.
* The Tribune has finally uploaded the video from its editorial board “debate” between Gov. Pat Quinn and Comptroller Dan Hynes. You can watch the two-part video by going to the main editorial page and looking at the lower right side.
I excerpted one pretty testy back and forth between Hynes and Quinn. Hynes is usually a pretty placid guy, but he went off several times during this exchange and really showed some passion. The excerpt is definitely worth a look and it gets more interesting as the video goes on, so stay with it…
* Some of that back and forth had to do with Hynes’ refusal to approve Quinn’s $500 million short-term borrowing plan. ABC7 ran a story yesterday about an AARP press conference that you should definitely watch. For some reason, I can no longer get the station’s embed script to work, so it’s just words on this end again today…
The state of Illinois, with an estimated $11 billion to $13 billion deficit, owes an estimated $4.5 billion to its vendors. AARP says the creditors include 200 agencies around the state that serve the elderly that could be forced out of business within weeks.
“I have no funds to make payroll next week for my staff,” said Champaign Senior Care Provider Carol Acord.
“For our last payroll, our family had to deplete all of our savings,” said Norman James of Family Home Services, Inc. “So that we can keep our employees out there working and providing the service that the seniors need.” […]
But the worst-off providers want the state to use whatever means to pay what it owes now and save the politics for later.
“Put aside our partisan differences, our political aspirations, and take emergency action now,” said Democratic Rep. Greg Harris who represents Chicago.
* Comptroller Hynes claimed in the above Tribune debate video that fully a third of state revenues will have to used to pay off existing short-term loans come March and April. And as I told you yesterday, S&P downgraded Illinois’ general obligation debt and retained its negative outlook on the state’s credit. More on that from Reuters…
S&P said the negative outlook was retained because of the state’s “questionable” willingness to implement difficult and politically unpopular measures to restore a budget balance.
“There’s been very limited action on addressing the shortfall,” said Robin Prunty, an S&P analyst.
In its downgrade affecting $19 billion of outstanding Illinois GO debt, S&P said Illinois rolled its fiscal 2009 budget deficit into fiscal 2010, which in turn was balanced “with various spending reductions and a plan for debt restructuring to provide budget savings; the savings from both are uncertain at this time.”
The state also turned to one-time measures, such as a plan to issue $3.5 billion of pension notes to raise money for its fiscal 2010 payment to pension funds. That “might create out-year budget pressure,” S&P said.
The governor says in the excerpted Tribune video that the financial situation here is “stable.” Hynes responded: “If that’s stability, I’d hate to see chaos.” How right he is.
Faced with widespread voter dissatisfaction, embattled Cook County Board President Todd Stroger trails Circuit Clerk Dorothy Brown and Chicago Ald. Toni Preckwinkle in the race for the Democratic primary nomination, a Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.
Brown had the support of 29 percent of likely Feb. 2 primary voters, ahead of Preckwinkle’s 20 percent, in the poll of 502 likely voters. Stroger received 14 percent and Terrence O’Brien, president of the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District, had 11 percent.
But the survey found that 26 percent of primary voters are undecided in the race or for someone else — meaning plenty of room exists for the contest to become even more fluid in the post-holiday sprint to the ballot box. […]
O’Brien is the lone white candidate in the race, but the prospect of three African-American candidates splintering the black vote to enable him to win isn’t borne out in the survey.
What is surprising is that for the first time that I can recall, the Tribune has released its questions, toplines and some crosstabs. Click here to download.
Toni Preckwinkle already has a press release out…
We are exactly where we expected to be at this point in our campaign. We entered this race 11 months ago and have been building positive momentum since. We are confident that, as voters continue to hear Toni Preckwinkle’s message - her commitment to repeal the Stroger sales tax increase and bring real reform to County government, that we will win the only poll that matters - on election day.
Our own recent polling shows that Dorothy Brown had a 2:1 name recognition advantage. Yet polling shows even though voters know her, they are unconvinced she deserves a promotion.
The Trib poll’s name recognition advantage for Brown over Preckwinkle - 91 vs. 62- isn’t nearly as high as Preckwinkle claims in her own polling. However, those with either a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the two is about two-to-one for Brown - 56-30. O’Brien comes in last in the Trib poll at 51 percent name rec, while just 14 percent know enough about him to rate him…
And here are the Trib’s crosstabs on the head-to-heads…
Preckwinkle absolutely needs to raise some money to get her message out. Her campaign has done a good job of leaking negative research on Brown and O’Brien to the media, but she obviously needs to reinforce that with advertising.
O’Brien needs to up his name ID, and only lots of cash will do that.
This is one reason why the reformers’ hatred of campaign cash is so misguided. Incumbents are already well-known. Challengers have to establish themselves with voters, but nobody in the reform movement is talking about making TV and radio ads lots cheaper.
Data…
This Chicago Tribune Poll is based on interviews of confirmed registered voters likely to vote in the February 2nd Cook County Democratic primary. Interviewing was conducted December 2nd to the 8th. The sample involved 502 Cook County Democratic primary voters, for a potential margin of error of 4.4% at the 95% level of confidence.
