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Rauner won’t say if there’s a fall-back plan

Monday, Dec 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. Rauner was asked today if he had a contingency plan in place in case he doesn’t get a full budget or a stopgap budget…

We’ll get, we’ll get things done.

“How can you say that?” a reporter asked…

Because I think in the end a majority of members of the General Assembly will do the right thing. Everything that we’re advocating has strong bipartisan support… We haven’t yet, but change is hard… I’m frustrated. I’m not the most patient person in the state, but I’m very persistent.

And then he went on to talk yet again about how raising taxes won’t solve anything and how growth is a must. And then he claimed, yet again, that several Democrats privately support his ideas without naming anybody. And then he changed the subject.

However, subscribers know a little about his fallback plan - and it’s all bad for Chicago and for certain Democratic legislators with state facilities.

* Raw audio…

* Meanwhile…


* Related…

* State of Illinois’ woes loom large for local fundraisers

  73 Comments      


Question of the day - Golden Horseshoe Awards

Monday, Dec 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The 2016 Golden Horseshoe Award for Best State Senate Staffer - Non Political, Republican goes to Jo Johnson…

She does it all and knows how to get along with people on both sides of the aisle.

Yep.

* The 2016 Golden Horseshoe Award for Best State House Staffer - Non Political, Republican goes to James Sherwood…

Lots of staffers are smart. James is that but also a genuinely good guy whose head isn’t so big it will explode. He proves that you can be a good staffer without sacrificing a pleasant personality

Congrats!

* Now, on to today’s categories…

* Best campaign staffer - House Republicans

* Best campaign staffer - Senate Republicans

Make sure to explain your vote or it won’t count and do your very best to nominate in both categories, please. Thanks.

  47 Comments      


“Angels we have heard on high”

Monday, Dec 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The latest from VanillaMan. Click here if you’re unfamiliar with the tune…

Angels we have heard on high
Pleading, begging o’re our plains
But Raunerites in reply
Berates them over budget strains
NO-Ooooooh-Oooooh-NO Deal
Democrats only live to STEAL
NO-Ooooooh-Oooooh-NO Deal
Without Turnaround there’s NO DEAL
Legislators feeling glum
With no pay, there is no plum
The Speaker whom ’er he be
Would never give in to Brucie
NO-Ooooooh-Oooooh-NO Deal
We’d rather listen to Brucie’s SQUEAL
NO-Ooooooh-Oooooh-NO Deal
“Right To Work” is Right To STEAL
Come to Chicago and see
Lootings, shootings across the town
Duck and dive on bended knee
Mayor Emanuel, who wears the crown
NO-Ooooooh-Oooooh-NO Deal
I’d rather have no sex APPEAL
NO-Ooooooh-Oooooh-NO Deal
Chicago’s Rauner’s Achilles’ heel
What can poor Illinois do now?
Whose government ignores angels pleas?
Illinois citizens come, let’s vow
We won’t succumb to government squeeze!
NO-Ooooooh-Oooooh-NO GOOD!
We’re tired of all your FALSEHOOD!
GO-Oooooh-Oooooh-LET’S GO!
Time for ANGELS to RUN THIS SHOW!

  13 Comments      


So, what’s the answer?

Monday, Dec 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The AP writes about Sen. Kwame Raoul’s upcoming anti-gun-crime bill

Raoul and the legislative black caucus have said they don’t want to increase mandatory minimums, which have drawn criticism for putting nonviolent drug offenders behind bars for decades - something even Obama is trying to undo in his final days through commutations and other actions.

Instead, Raoul says, he’ll propose directing judges to use the higher end of the sentencing scale when someone has a prior gun-related conviction. Judges would keep their discretion in sentencing, but Raoul’s bill may require them to explain their rationale.

As is, someone with a previous felony weapons conviction faces 3 to 14 years; Raoul’s measure might have judges consider more than 10 years. Currently, someone with a 3-year sentence can be freed after serving half their term with good behavior.

“The question is … whether (repeat offenders) are incapacitated long enough to create a breather for some neighborhoods that are just ravaged by gun violence, and long enough to create a deterrence,” Raoul said.

But such an effort could turn into a “war on guns” that would resemble the war on drugs of the 1970s and 1980s, according to Cook County Public Defender Amy Campanelli, whose staff represents many of the accused. It didn’t lead to a drop in drug usage, but to the “demonization” of mostly young African-American and Latino men, she said.

I’m not sure what the exact answer is here, but comparing this to the war on drugs is a bit on the specious side. That war was touted as a way to prevent people from putting what were believed to be harmful products into their own bodies, or selling those products to others. Guns used in the act of a felony would seem to be an entirely different matter.

On the other hand, the war on drugs was decidedly racist

One of Richard Nixon’s top advisers and a key figure in the Watergate scandal said the war on drugs was created as a political tool to fight blacks and hippies, according to a 22-year-old interview recently published in Harper’s Magazine.

“The Nixon campaign in 1968, and the Nixon White House after that, had two enemies: the antiwar left and black people,” former Nixon domestic policy chief John Ehrlichman told Harper’s writer Dan Baum for the April cover story published Tuesday.

“You understand what I’m saying? We knew we couldn’t make it illegal to be either against the war or black, but by getting the public to associate the hippies with marijuana and blacks with heroin. And then criminalizing both heavily, we could disrupt those communities,” Ehrlichman said. “We could arrest their leaders. raid their homes, break up their meetings, and vilify them night after night on the evening news. Did we know we were lying about the drugs? Of course we did.”

Campanelli, by the way, argues for more police on the streets and far more community involvement.

  50 Comments      


Statehouse loses 6 reporters in less than a month

Monday, Dec 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* And there weren’t many to start with. Bernie

IVAN MORENO, 34, who has been supervisory correspondent with The Associated Press at the Statehouse for about a year, will become the AP’s supervisory correspondent in Milwaukee. […]

SETH PERLMAN, 61, has been an AP photographer in Springfield for more than 33 years, and was laid off Friday. Perlman said there is severance pay involved and he’s happy with his situation. He also turned in his equipment to the company and has no plans to freelance. He certainly has been around to help showcase a lot of history. He’s a Miami native, got a journalism degree at the University of Colorado, and worked places including the Denver Post before coming to Springfield. […]

And one of WCIA-TV’s Statehouse reporters, KELSEY GIBBS, 28, is leaving in January to become a general assignment reporter for KFOR-TV in Oklahoma City. She’s a Springfield High grad who got her master’s in public affairs reporting from the University of Illinois Springfield. Gibbs said it will be her first time living outside Illinois, so she expects to have “a little homesickness” with her family still here. But she said she’s excited about the “jump to a bigger market.” […]

Other Statehouse reporters who recently announced departures are AMANDA VINICKY, going from Illinois Public Radio to WTTW-TV in Chicago; MIKE RIOPELL, who had been in Springfield for the Daily Herald, based in Arlington Heights, and took a job in Chicago with the Tribune; and WCIA-TV’s ED CROSS, who is becoming spokesman for the state Department of Natural Resources.

  32 Comments      


There’s an automatic repealer in Illinois’ abortion law, but does it mean anything?

Monday, Dec 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Illinois Abortion Law of 1975, passed in the wake of the landmark Roe v. Wade decision, with emphasis added

It is the intention of the General Assembly of the State of Illinois to reasonably regulate abortion in conformance with the decisions of the United States Supreme Court of January 22, 1973. Without in any way restricting the right of privacy of a woman or the right of a woman to an abortion under those decisions, the General Assembly of the State of Illinois do solemnly declare and find in reaffirmation of the longstanding policy of this State, that the unborn child is a human being from the time of conception and is, therefore, a legal person for purposes of the unborn child’s right to life and is entitled to the right to life from conception under the laws and Constitution of this State.

Further, the General Assembly finds and declares that longstanding policy of this State to protect the right to life of the unborn child from conception by prohibiting abortion unless necessary to preserve the life of the mother is impermissible only because of the decisions of the United States Supreme Court and that, therefore, if those decisions of the United States Supreme Court are ever reversed or modified or the United States Constitution is amended to allow protection of the unborn then the former policy of this State to prohibit abortions unless necessary for the preservation of the mother’s life shall be reinstated.

I bring this up because a Republican president who campaigned on repealing Roe v. Wade has a Republican US Senate.

* But the Tribune looked into this matter back in 1991

Anti-abortion groups would likely go to court to get the 1975 law reinstated [if Roe v. Wade is overturned], but whether they would succeed remains a question. […]

“Abortions will not be illegal because there is no statute in Illinois that makes abortions generally criminal,” [Attorney Paul Linton, counsel for the anti-abortion Americans United for Life] said.

The Illinois Legislative Research Unit of the General Assembly also shares that view. It would take a new law to outlaw abortion here, the research unit concluded in a 1989 study. […]

[Colleen Connell, director of the reproductive rights project of the American Civil Liberties Union of Illinois] of the ACLU maintained that both the preamble and the law are unenforceable.

“The law has a unconstitutional vagueness,” she said. “It doesn’t specifically tell physicians which acts are prohibited and which are not. There’s a long-standing and unquestioned doctrine of criminal law in Illinois that says the law must be very specific.

“What the preamble says is the General Assembly didn’t like abortion, but the preamble has no legal, binding aspect.”

Thoughts?

  10 Comments      


A look ahead to 2018

Monday, Dec 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* After going over the top possible candidates for governor, Greg Hinz takes a look at some others

Category two includes a variety of midrange Democrats. Each has a following but would have to scramble to widen their base.

For instance, state Sen. Daniel Biss, D-Evanston, reminds me of the late Dawn Clark Netsch with his focus on fiscal probity and thoughtful backing of progressive causes. He raised $10 million for an anti-Rauner TV blitz this fall but insists it’s not about money. “I really don’t like the theory of ‘we’ll pit our billionaire against their billionaire,’ ” he says.

Two downstate officials are known to be considering a run, too, U.S. Rep. Cheri Bustos of western Illinois and state Sen. Andy Manar of Bunker Hill. Both have been successful in regions that the Democratic Party statewide has all but abandoned in recent decades.

But Bustos recently accepted a job in House Democratic leadership that will be difficult to walk away from, even if she has Durbin’s rumored backing. That could make Manar, the former chief of staff to Illinois Senate President John Cullerton, the man to watch in a crowded field, especially if he’s able to consolidate labor behind him.

Sen. Manar is up for reelection in two years, so he’d have to give up his seat to run. I’m not saying he wouldn’t do that, I’m just saying that hard fact will definitely play a role in his decision-making.

  52 Comments      


The insider’s insider retires

Monday, Dec 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Doug Wilson at the Quincy Herald-Whig

Mike McClain, a Quincy attorney who has been described as “the most trusted and respected lobbyist in Springfield,” has announced his retirement.

McClain, 69, said he told his wife, Cinda Awerkamp McClain, two years ago that he would retire at the end of 2015 as an anniversary present for her.

“Then we had the Exelon bill come up, and my friend Mike Madigan was facing some tough times, and so (the retirement) kind of got put on hold” for another year, McClain said, referring to a bill to extend subsidies to the utility to keep two nuclear power plants in the state operating.

He kept his retirement plan secret until it was revealed Friday by Rich Miller in the Illinois political newsletter and blog Capitol Fax. The announcement caught many by surprise.

“He was extremely successful and really, really will be missed,” said state Sen. John Sullivan, D-Rushville.

Former state Rep. Art Tenhouse, R-Liberty, said McClain worked behind the scenes and could “cross over the partisan divide” on almost every issue that came up in the Legislature.

“Most people don’t realize what an advocate he’s been for Western Illinois and how many things he’s gotten accomplished for this region,” Tenhouse said. […]

Wrote Miller on Friday:

“McClain has been a vitally important sounding board and strategist for the Speaker. He’s never been afraid to clash head-on with other members of Madigan’s inner circle when he’s believed they’ve given his guy the wrong advice. McClain also participated in Madigan’s conference calls every Sunday during campaign seasons, including this past one.

“The extent of his influence with Madigan probably can’t be overstated and will likely never be known. Neither man is the type to write tell-all autobiographies. Madigan doesn’t always take McClain’s advice, of course, but, like pretty much everyone who comes into contact with McClain, he most definitely always listens to him and respects him and, perhaps most importantly, trusts him.

“He’s also been a valued private conduit to members of Team Rauner, who may not love Madigan, but can always talk to McClain.”

On Friday, McClain said “a Springfield old-timer” told him early in his career as a lobbyist that with his connections, McClain could make a lot of money and retire in five years, or make a more modest living compared with other people and keep lobbying for a long time, while keeping his reputation intact.

“I chose the latter,” McClain said.

Your thoughts?

  14 Comments      


FBI told ILGOP in June it was likely hacked

Monday, Dec 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

The FBI notified the Illinois Republican Party in June that some of its email accounts may have been hacked, but party officials were not told that it was part of a wide-ranging federal investigation of Russian activity in the nation’s political system, the state GOP’s executive director said Sunday.

Nick Klitzing said the state GOP on its own found 18 of its emails on the website DCLeaks.com. The New York Times reported the website was an outlet that U.S. intelligence officials and private cybersecurity companies believe was created by a unit controlled by the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence agency.

Klitzing said FBI agents raised questions about emails involving the state GOP accounts during their visit. The four email accounts involved were inactive or rarely used, and the hacked emails dated to 2015, long before the 2016 contests for president and Illinois offices, Klitzing said.

A review of the emails provided by the state GOP shows the messages were largely rudimentary in nature, ranging from requests for training and local party event invitations to reports and discussion that U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam of Wheaton should be considered a “dark horse” candidate to replace House Speaker John Boehner, a contest ultimately won by U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

The disclosure of the hacked email accounts comes amid reports by the Times and Washington Post that assessments by American intelligence agencies, including the CIA, concluded that Russia acted to influence the 2016 presidential election in favor of Republican President-elect Donald Trump and to hurt Democrat Hillary Clinton’s chances.

  33 Comments      


RIP JBT

Monday, Dec 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Two years ago Saturday I got a call in the middle of the night telling me that Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka had died. Everyone who knew her was shocked. She just seemed so indestructible.

Her untimely death undoubtedly changed the course of Illinois history. While she was a good Republican, she would’ve undoubtedly stood up to newly elected Gov. Bruce Rauner’s constant demands for “right to work” and other anti-union legislation, providing a balance to that party which simply doesn’t exist these days. I also believe she would’ve sharply criticized the Democrats for obstructionism, bringing some sensible balance to that fight as well.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it until I no longer have breath in my body: Never before in the history of any state has the death of a comptroller had such tragic consequences.

I miss you, Judy. Illinois misses you, too…

  27 Comments      


Don’t hold your breath

Monday, Dec 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

Top folks in the governor’s office said they didn’t quite understand last week why the Senate Democrats and House Speaker Michael Madigan’s spokesman were so upset with them about canceling last Thursday’s leaders meeting to discuss ending the long Statehouse impasse and finishing up an incomplete budget.

Gov. Bruce Rauner’s chief of staff reached out to Rep. Greg Harris (D-Chicago) last Wednesday to see whether he’d finished up a budget framework. Harris, who Madigan refers to as his “chief budget negotiator,” had reportedly made it clear earlier in the process that he wanted to get input from House Democratic membership before moving forward with any budget proposal. He hadn’t yet been able to do that, which led to the decision by the governor’s office to cancel last Thursday’s meeting.

Trouble is, the press release announcing that cancellation was sent at almost exactly the same time as top Democratic staff were informed of the news. And that led to internal confusion and more than a little anger.
-

“I’m seriously floored by this,” said one clearly ticked off top Dem involved with the negotiations. “Every time we start to make progress they pull the plug.”

Public comments by Madigan’s spokesman (who is not involved with negotiations) were a bit harsh: “Somehow they had it in their heads that we’re going to take over some executive action [by proposing a full budget]. I don’t think that’s going to happen,” Steve Brown told the Chicago Sun-Times.

But the real reason the Democrats haven’t presented a plan after almost two years of demanding that Rauner propose one is that if they do lay out an actual spending plan, they’d have to essentially reveal the size of the tax hike they’d prefer, which is why Rauner hasn’t done it, either.

It wouldn’t be difficult for the governor to take the Democrats’ spending proposals, subtract out expected state revenues and then label what wasn’t yet funded as “the Democrats’ tax hike plan.” Or, more likely, “the Mike Madigan tax hike plan,” since the Republicans truly relish whacking the unpopular House Speaker.

That may not happen, but the complete lack of trust among Statehouse leaders exacerbated by the governor’s year-round campaign style pretty much makes that expectation a reality.

After all, I already get more than a dozen e-mails almost every day from the Illinois Republican Party slamming individual House and Senate Democrats for being Madigan’s minions. A “tax hike proposal” from Madigan could exponentially increase those attacks.

Not to mention that the governor’s state party sent a video “tracker” to the Statehouse this month to harass a few politically vulnerable House Democrats. The party posted video of one somewhat embarrassing encounter on YouTube. This stuff is, at the least, inanely juvenile and, at most, darkly autocratic. The governor’s party shouldn’t be paying people to follow opposing party legislators around Springfield with a camera. Period. And it could easily escalate out of control if the other side starts responding in kind.

In the past, the leaders and the governor would all figuratively hold hands and jump off the tax hike cliff together. But, in the past, nobody was blasting out campaign press releases just days after the campaign ended and hounding legislators with video trackers. So, nobody trusts anyone enough to do that now.

And that’s why Senate President John Cullerton went on WTTW’s “Chicago Tonight” program last week and said, “It’s not a matter of who’s going first,” but then firmly and repeatedly demanded that Rauner had to be the one to go first.

Even so, they actually appear to be making some slow progress behind the scenes.

Despite public comments by Republican leaders that reconstituting the rank and file legislative working groups was a waste of time, a small group planned to meet last Friday with the governor’s people to engage on a workers’ compensation reform plan. Cullerton said earlier in the week that he was confident a deal could be struck, particularly if it focused on weeding out fraud and abuse. Speaker Madigan said after last Tuesday’s meeting that he was willing to negotiate on that topic.

Another small working group was also scheduled to talk about local government consolidation and state mandate relief. Madigan said he was willing to engage on that topic as well. Madigan also said last week he was willing to talk about pension reform, which is another major Rauner demand and for which Cullerton already has a proposal.

They just need to find a way to trust each other enough to make it all happen. Don’t bet on it yet.

  31 Comments      


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* CTA board chair inadvertently makes strong case for busting up the transit fiefdoms
* Pritzker says graduated tax not his priority for spring session
* Campaign updates (Updated)
* Independent poll shows Biss, Abughazaleh tied; Pritzker hugely popular in the district
* RETAIL: The Largest Employer In Illinois
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