The election is over and the people have spoken; they want change. From the top down, voters are not satisfied with the status quo, which they demonstrated from the federal level down to the state legislature. It is incumbent upon us to come together to address the serious issues facing our state. I sincerely hope the Democrat majority will now choose to join us to move Illinois forward. We look forward to working with them in the coming weeks.
* Statement from Senate President John Cullerton on yesterday’s election…
Look, the numbers on each side of the aisle may change but our problems haven’t. The sooner everyone can set aside politics and focus on policy, the better.
Don’t forget, this summer, before the campaigns kicked in, we had begun working together and making progress. I’m optimistic that can resume.
On p. 6 of its special Election Edition for the Weekly Credit Outlook for Public Finance released today, Moody’s notes voters in the State of Illinois (rated Baa2/negative outlook) decision to amend their state constitution and restrict use of transportation revenues to highway, mass-transit and related projects is credit negative because it cuts off the state’s ability to draw on about $3 billion of annual transportation revenue that could otherwise help address fiscal pressure from pension contribution demands and reduced income taxes. The so-called “Lockbox Amendment” stipulates that revenue collected from the use of motor vehicles (such as fuel taxes or registration fees), or from transportation infrastructure (such as highway tolls), can be applied only to transportation purposes. The amendment means the state will lose its ability to tap transportation funds to ease budgetary pressures. Illinois’ annual income tax revenue has declined almost $5 billion since January 2015, when rate cuts took effect, while pension contribution requirements have risen by almost $1 billion.
The $3.2 billion of Illinois fuel taxes and transportation fees combined accounted for about 6% of the state’s own-source revenue. In addition, the state had $1.1 billion in highway tolls, bringing total transportation revenues subject to the new provision to $4.3 billion. While the state does not anticipate that the lockbox amendment will have a material impact on its finances, the vast majority of Illinois’ $4.3 billion in transportation-derived revenue already is allocated to transportation purposes by statute. The Illinois State Toll Highway Authority (Aa3/stable) collects tolls. After the authority covers principal and interest on its debt, it can only spend residual toll revenues on its highway operating and maintenance purposes. Even before the lockbox amendment, these revenues were not available to the state government for general purposes.
Illinois has reallocated funds dedicated to transportation on several occasions in recent years. The lockbox amendment would preclude such practices, in hopes of controlling a tendency to defer maintenance of transportation infrastructure. At the same time, the amendment removes the option of drawing on transportation revenue for general operating needs, which has been useful for Illinois, a state that faces an approximately $9 billion backlog in unpaid bills. The amendment also means that, as the state contemplates how to raise general operating revenue in the future, it will not be able to consider using new transportation-related taxes.
Moody’s declaration of “credit positive” or “credit negative” does not connote a rating or outlook change. It is indicative of the impact of a distinct event or development as one of many credit factors affecting the issuer.
Emphasis added because I don’t think anyone ever really focused on that point.
“My sense is that without a fundamental change in the fiscal conditions in Illinois (that is, a strategic plan to address the budget deficits), Illinois will continue to underperform surrounding states and lag, as before, in employment growth.
“We need a governor who knows how to negotiate, and we need a new Illinois House speaker with a vision for the state rather than an objective function of maintaining his powerful position.
“Firms have enormous flexibility as to where they can locate or expand their businesses. The one thing they need is confidence that they will not be hit with an unexpected tax increase. If there is a plan and it is followed (even with stabilizing tax increases), then businesses know the operating environment, and they can make decisions accordingly.
“We have incredible assets in the state — especially embodied in human capital and in infrastructure — but without some long-term, transparent strategy, we will just limp along.”
In 2015, Illinois generated 41 percent more electricity than we need, even as power demand shrunk 3.8 percent since 2011
Sierra Club and NRDC have joined forces with coal-plant operator Dynegy and nuke-plant and ComEd owner Exelon for a monster bill to bailout both unneeded nukes and unneeded coal plants
The energy bill would subsidize unnecessary nukes, meaning Illinois ratepayers will effectively be paying more so ratepayers in other states who use our surplus power will pay less
“…that’s just another incentive for commercial and industrial consumers – and employers – to jump the border”
Social services have been devastated, the state is now two years without a budget, but Exelon would have you believe our top legislative priority is passing a $16 BILLION RATE HIKE for a company that just announced quarterly PROFITS of $841 MILLION to prop up power plants that cannot compete in the Illinois energy market.
JUST SAY NO TO THE EXELON BAILOUT
BEST Coalition is a 501C4 nonprofit group of dozens of business, consumer and government groups, as well as large and small businesses. Visit www.noexelonbailout.com.
The picture for Illinois’ state employee pensions has become bleaker, with a $12 billion increase in unfunded liabilities that already top the $100 billion mark and a $1 billion increase in the state’s scheduled contributions next year.
The updated data comes from fiscal 2016 draft actuarial reports released by the state’s five retirement funds and its preliminary contribution requests for fiscal 2018, which were approved by the system’s boards at recent meetings.
The cash-strapped state tentatively will owe $8.8 billion to the state’s five funds in fiscal 2018. That’s up 12.7% from the $7.8 billion the state is paying in fiscal 2017, which began July 1.
The state’s unfunded liabilities, meanwhile, rose to $126.5 billion in fiscal 2016 from $112.9 billion a year earlier and the funded ratio deteriorated to 39.2% from 40.9%.
The funds must submit a preliminary contribution amount by a Nov. 1 state deadline.
Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
As the head of the Illinois AFL-CIO, I know that this is true.
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The bill protects 4,200 good-paying Illinois jobs, creates tens of thousands more clean energy jobs, and also provides job training for Illinois workers. This is all achieved with while maintaining Illinois’ competitive energy prices.
There isn’t a moment to lose. Illinois lawmakers who support good-paying Illinois jobs need to SUPPORT the Future Energy Jobs Bill today.
* The transportation funding lockbox amendment overwhelmingly prevailed in every Illinois county, despite lots and lots of harsh editorials and columnists who regularly rail on the General Assembly for an inability to do its job. Well, the lockbox amendment does the job for legislators and that seemed abundantly clear to fed-up voters.
And now we’re stuck with it.
* Meanwhile, Donald Trump won McHenry County by 8 points. Mark Kirk won it by 10. Democratic state Rep. Jack Franks won the county board chairman’s race by 15 points. Franks represents only about a third of that county in the House. Say what you want about him, but the man knows how to win.
Despite efforts to derail the Republican Fifth District Appellate Court candidates’ campaigns with lawyer-funded attack ads, the Republican candidates are leading by roughly 10 percent margins with 99 percent of the precincts reporting.
For the vacancy created through the retirement of Bruce Stewart, Madison County Circuit Judge John Barberis is leading with a margin of 55 percent to 45 percent. Barberis has received 305,727 votes, while Williamson County Circuit Judge Brad Bleyer has received 238,255 votes.
Governor Bruce Rauner today released the following statement:
“This has been a long, grueling campaign cycle, both nationally and locally. For the good of the people of Illinois, let’s put the election behind us. Let’s come together and focus on the future and improving the quality of life for every family in our state.
“The people of Illinois deserve prompt, bi-partisan action to solve problems and get good things done – to make Illinois more competitive so we can be more compassionate – to enact truly balanced budgets along with reforms that grow more jobs and protect taxpayers.
* A metric ton of issues has been put on the back burner. Not nearly enough revenue is coming in the doors and a newly passed transportation funding lockbox constitutional amendment will block another “easy” fix. Chicago desperately needs action on education funding. Unions want help with power plant and alt energy jobs and assurances that state workers won’t be forced out on strike. Businesses are screaming for relief. Property taxes are too darned high. Criminal justice reform is now on the precipice because the country just elected a strong “law and order” president. The punditry is enraged about the lack of political reforms.
You name the problem, we pretty much got it.
* There’s room for a deal and more than enough lame ducks to get it done. The question will become how much Rauner wants and if the Democrats even engage.
Most people don’t always have the money to pay bills as they arrive. If you write a big check before the next paycheck comes in, bad things can happen.
The same thing applies to the comptroller. Even in flush times, if she pays the state’s bills (or even a few large state bills) as they come in the door, she can easily crash the state’s finances. But without a proper state budget, and amid a severe revenue shortage caused by the partial expiration last year of the income tax hike, these are far from flush times.
So a hostile comptroller would be a bad thing for the governor. Democrat Mendoza could use the power of the checkbook to force the Republican governor into a more compliant position, even without actually crashing state finances.
Munger has used her position to highlight the state’s massive $8 billion-plus bill backlog in a way that puts pressure on the General Assembly. She’s mainly done this by refusing to pay state legislators when their checks are due, putting them in the same payment line with social services agencies.
And she’s also often taken heat off the governor (or put heat on his detractors) by quickly paying (or not so quickly paying) invoices at his request. The governor’s office has been running a triage operation for well over a year to keep vital government services from crashing due to lack of revenue while simultaneously battling a belligerent Legislature. A friendly comptroller has been a great help to him.
This impasse could continue throughout Rauner’s entire first term, so an antagonistic comptroller could refuse to honor his requests, which would put him in an awful spot.
Mendoza is a pleasant person who can also be a sharp-elbowed street fighter. “I will be an independent, truth-telling fiscal watchdog,” she pledged during the Democratic National Convention in July, “not a lapdog to Rauner.”
So unlike Munger, who has used her media conferences about unpaid bills to blast the General Assembly, Mendoza could use her position to constantly harangue Rauner, perhaps also doing what Topinka did to undermine the credibility of the Quinn administration by showing how it used gimmicks to mask the size of the deficit.
In other words, a lot is at stake here.
* SEIU Healthcare is strongly urging that battle…
Following is the statement of SEIU Healthcare Illinois Executive Vice President Greg Kelley in response to Susana Mendoza’s victory as comptroller:
“By electing Susana Mendoza tonight, Illinois voters are demanding accountability of Bruce Rauner. He spent millions for his hand-picked ‘wing man’ Leslie Munger. Susana will be anything BUT a wing man, and instead will be positioned to bring true scrutiny to this administration’s misplaced priorities.
“As a REAL watchdog of public resources, we are hopeful Susana will ensure that those Illinoisans who need it the most, including people with disabilities, seniors and children, are not put in line behind corporate special interests or Wall Street billionaires.
“But for the budget crisis manufactured entirely by Bruce Rauner, the comptroller’s race would have been a sleepy affair. But in this troubling period, Illinois now has an independent fighter who we are confident will hold the powerful to account.”
Mendoza struck back by attempting to turn the focus in the race to Rauner. “I’m running against (Rauner), and when this election is over and I beat him on Nov. 8, he’s not going to be able to hide behind some story that he got beat by the big powerful Irishman named Mike Madigan from the South Side,” Mendoza told the Tribune last month. “I’m going to make sure he owns the fact that he lost to a little 5-foot-3 Mexican woman called Susana Mendoza from the city of Chicago. So he’ll know my name then.”
During her victory speech Tuesday night, Mendoza promised to fight the good fight.
“Win, lose or draw I stay true to my cause,” she said. “And I know how to stand up to big bullies.”
“We were outspent by millions of dollars by just three billionaires who think they can buy our political system,” Mendoza said during her victory speech Tuesday night. “They think they can buy our democracy. Well they’re wrong and we sent a clear message today: The state of Illinois is not for sale.”
“I believe that the comptroller’s office has a much bigger role to play in terms of being an advocate for fiscal sanity in Springfield,” Mendoza told the Sun-Times.
Mendoza also invoked the memory of Topinka, who she called her friend and a “bridge building” who brought people together.
“I really truly do miss her, but I think that she would be proud of what Illinoisans did by sending me to the comptroller’s office today,” Mendoza said.
Yeah, Judy probably wouldn’t be a huge Rauner fan (to say the least), but she was, after all, a Republican.
“Illinois has not seen a more divisive or visceral series of campaigns than we just witnessed. Remarkably, hardly any of these candidates focused on the most important issue – Illinois’ deplorable financial situation. Illinois is now the laughingstock of the nation. But there is nothing laughable about our small and large businesses packing up and moving across state borders, our students being priced out of college, or our most vulnerable citizens being denied critical social services. The people of Illinois deserve better. We deserve elected officials who will do their jobs and pass a responsible, balanced budget. Anything short of that is unacceptable.”
[Gov. Bruce Rauner] spent more than $30 million dollars bankrolling legislative races.
It’s part of his attempt to break the Democratic grip on the legislature — a grip that thus far has stifled Rauner’s agenda. That, in turn, has led to a partisan stalemate that’s left Illinois without a real budget, and with an all-too-real deficit.
Rauner has frequently put the onus on Democrats to break the stalemate, with comments like this one from last year: “If the Speaker and the General Assembly doesn’t want to take up reforms, doesn’t want to pass any real structural reforms, then they should go ahead and pass a tax hike,” he said. “They have a supermajority. They’re fully capable of increasing the taxes.”
• In the 71st District, Republican Tony McCombie defeated incumbent Mike Smiddy, D-Port Byron, 63 percent to 37 percent with 92 percent of precincts counted.
• In the 79th House district, in what’s thought to be the most expensive legislative campaign in the state at $4.5 million, Rep. Kate Cloonen, D-Kankakee, fell to her GOP challenger, attorney Lindsay Parkhurst, 46 percent to 54 percent.
• In the 117th District, Republican Dave Severin ousted Rep. John Bradley, D-Marion, 53 percent to 47 percent.
And challenger Jerry Long was leading Rep. Andy Skoog, D-Peru, 49 percent to 51 percent, with 56 percent of precincts reporting.
One Republican incumbents also fell: Dwight Kay of Edwardsville, who lost to Democratic challenger Katie Stuart in the 117th District.
On the Senate side, incumbent Gary Forby, D-Benton, was defeated by Republican Dale Fowler in the 59th District.
That Smiddy loss was huuuuge, man. Wow. Cloonen won by about a hundred votes each of the last two cycles, but got creamed this time around. Bradley is a member of Madigan’s leadership team, so that had to sting.
Almost all the votes have since been counted in Rep. Skoog’s district and the incumbent appears to be going down. But at least he stayed classy…
Andy Skoog barred media from entering his event. He said they could only come if he won.
Statement from Speaker Madigan on Tuesday’s Election Results
“Voters stated clearly that they wish to maintain a wide Democratic majority in the Illinois House of Representatives and maintain a strong check on Bruce Rauner and his anti-middle class agenda. Voters said they support the vision of the Democratic Party with the victories of Tammy Duckworth and Susana Mendoza.
“Democrats value the voters’ trust and we will continue to protect the middle class and those who don’t have access to billionaires and lobbyists.
“Republicans’ millions spent, coupled with the Trump headwind in downstate Illinois, created a difficult environment for many Democratic candidates. Rauner and his billionaire allies spent unprecedented millions – outspending Democratic candidates by wide margins – to push their agenda of increasing profits for big corporations at the expense of middle-class families.
“Illinois residents want strong schools, funding for domestic violence shelters and veterans’ homes, and a strong middle class with good wages. I hope Republicans will finally join us to protect these priorities and help deliver the services families are counting on.”
At the moment, Madigan is down a net three or four, depending on how the race goes in Rep. Andy Skoog’s LaSalle County-area district.
*** UPDATE *** House Republican Leader Jim Durkin…
“By handily breaking the supermajority, Illinois voters sent a strong message that it is time for Democrats to join Governor Rauner and legislative Republicans in enacting reforms to lower property taxes, create more jobs, address the pension crisis and place term limits on the career politicians alongside a balanced budget.”
