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Question of the day

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Your caption?…

  53 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Rauner mum on releasing tax returns

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Politico

Gov. Bruce Rauner, who once described himself as part of the “point-zero-one percent” of wealthy Americans, is holding back on releasing his personal income taxes this year — a departure from past practice for the wealthy Republican. The Rauner Family Foundation also has not filed its papers this year.

Since Oct. 20, Rauner’s office did not respond to questions about why the governor hadn’t released his 2015 taxes and whether he planned to do so. Informed today that POLITICO was poised to publish a story, the governor’s office released this statement.

“Governor Rauner will release his tax returns, as he has done in the past, when additional filings are completed, including the filings for the Rauner Family Foundation,” said the text-message statement from spokeswoman Catherine Kelly. […]

“We’ve not seen those returns,” Illinois Democratic Party spokesman Steve Brown told POLITICO Illinois. “It certainly is another example of making him look more Trump-like. A very curious development.” […]

“Is it about not wanting to be transparent or not wanting to draw contrasts between yourself and the presidential nominee?” said Kent Redfield, professor emeritus at University of Illinois at Springfield. “Those are the two most reasonable explanations: ‘I don’t have to do it’ and ‘it’s not going to hurt me.’ Or we’re kind of slow-walking it because we don’t want to draw contracts between his behavior and Trump’s.”

He released his returns last year in mid-October. The grapevine has it that the new returns will show a large increase in income.

Your thoughts on this?

*** UPDATE ***  Cute

WTAX has asked the offices of the Speaker of the House and President of the Senate what plans there are to release those legislative leaders’ 2015 returns.

An e-mail from Steve Brown, spokesman for House Speaker Mike Madigan (D-Chicago), says, As soon as law changes or Speaker makes same same decisions as governor’s.

Why he decided to jump into the fray considering his boss has never released his own tax returns is puzzling, to say the least.

  69 Comments      


Poll: Duckworth leads by 8

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* We have a new Loras College poll

Tammy Duckworth 42 percent
Mark Kirk 34 percent

Unsure 18 percent
Other candidates 6 percent

The poll was taken before most news reports emerged about Kirk’s controversial debate comments regarding Duckworth’s heritage.

* More

Duckworth has a commanding edge over Kirk within the City of Chicago (62 percent to 17 percent), while the two draw even in the Chicago suburbs 38 percent each, and Kirk holds a slim lead in the rest of the state 38 percent to 36 percent.

Turning to the question of favorability ratings for the U.S. Senate, Tammy Duckworth enjoys a +13 net favorability, while Senator Kirk has a +1 favorability.

Other noteworthy results from the poll

    54 percent of likely voters in Illinois approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance, while 41 percent disapprove.

    53 percent of Illinois likely voters see the country headed in the wrong direction, while 76 percent say the state of Illinois is headed in the wrong direction. Only 14 percent of those polled indicated that the state was headed on the right track.

Kirk remains a relatively unknown quantity even after almost 6 years in the Senate. According to the toplines, Kirk’s total favorables (32 percent) and his total unfavorables (28 percent) add up to just 60 percent who can rate him. That total is 70 percent for Duckworth (41-29).

* Presidential

Hillary Clinton 45 percent
Donald Trump 34 percent
Gary Johnson 6 percent
Jill Stein 2 percent

Unsure 13 percent

So, Trump and Kirk are polling even? Whew.

Keep in mind, though, the poll doesn’t take into account the aftermath of last week’s e-mail weirdness.

* Methodology

The Loras College Poll surveyed 600 likely voters in Illinois. The survey was conducted Oct. 26-27. Margin of error for full sample is +/- 4 percent. Results calculated at a 95 percent confidence interval.

45 percent of the respondents were contacted via their mobile phones.

  35 Comments      


Our sorry state

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Pew Charitable Trusts

Tax revenue has recovered slowly and unevenly after falling in every state during the Great Recession. By the first quarter of 2016, tax collections had bounced back in 31 states after accounting for inflation. But amid inconsistent growth, receipts had slumped in 17 states at the start of the year

* All 50 states compared to Illinois

You can click here and compare us to individual states if you want.

  28 Comments      


State senator announces Obama endorsement

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sen. Bertino-Tarrant wasn’t expecting to have such a spirited reelection bid, but she’s most definitely got a barn-burner on her hands. So, this press release will help, but there are two odd things about it…

Barack Obama today announced his endorsement of Jennifer Bertino-Tarrant’s campaign for State Senate, 49th District.

“I am very honored to receive the endorsement of Obama,” said Bertino-Tarrant, a first-term legislator from Shorewood. “I am proud to have the support of our president who is working tirelessly to invest more in our schools, create better paying-jobs, and reform the status quo.”

Bertino-Tarrant is now the first candidate for state Senate to receive the Obama’s endorsement in Illinois. Her campaign is now endorsed by organizations that represent teachers, police-officers, fire-fighters, small business owners, retirees, responsible gun-owners and working families.

“What drives me every day is the desire to provide a better future for our District,” said Bertino-Tarrant. “As a fourth-generation Will County resident and life-long educator, I am running to give the 49th District a voice they can count on to champion common sense legislation and promote bipartisan reform in Springfield.”

Until this year, Obama has not endorsed in state legislature races. Prior to serving in the White House and U.S. Senate, Obama served in the Illinois Senate representing Chicago’s Hyde-Park neighborhood.

1) No actual statement from the President? What’s up with that?

2) I was also told there will be no accompanying TV ad, which is odd, right?

* Meanwhile, speaking of national politics, this is from a reader…

Hi Rich,

Thought I would pass this along to you. I took this outside an early voting site in Park Ridge this morning.

* The pic…

Yeah, somehow I don’t think Michael paid for that truck.

…Adding… From a GOP friend…

That McAuliffe ad truck is owned by a hardcore GOP guy named Brian Younker. Maybe friendly fire?

  39 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** The direct link between poverty levels and test scores

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Daily Herald updated its Poverty-Achievement Index with new data from the Illinois State Board of Education

Our analysis divides all elementary schools in the state into 10 tiers based on the percentage of low-income students a school serves. The zero to 9.9 percent tier includes schools serving the fewest low-income students, while those in the 90 percent to 100 percent range covers schools with the highest percentage of low-income students.

We then calculate the average percent met/exceeds for each tier. As in past years, our analysis shows how deeply stratified Illinois schools are by income, with no income tier performing better than any other tier with fewer low-income students.

Emphasis added.

* The chart


* Meanwhile, from WBEZ

The message parents should take from Monday’s newly released state report card data is that despite Illinois’ financial difficulties, school performance is steady — for the most part, according to state officials.

John Barker, the state’s new chief of performance, pointed out that overall graduation rates, attendance rates and ACT scores are either the same or up a little compared with last year.

Two areas of concern: Chronic truancy rates, which look at students who missed 5 percent or more days without a valid excuse, increased from 8.7 percent to 9.8 percent. Also, the number of students in preschool went down by more than 12,000 children.

Preschool education is this governor’s specialty. He knows a lot about it, including the theories about how and why it works. So, it’s weird that the number of preschool kids dropped.

* More from the ISBE…

Students enrolled in Pre-K-12 education – more than two million students (2,041,779) at the beginning of 2015-16, 12,777 fewer than the previous year; percentage of Hispanic students increased slightly (25.1% to 25.5%), while percentage declined slightly for White (49.3% to 48.8%) and African-American (17.5% to 17.3%) students

*** UPDATE ***  It looks like WBEZ and I both misread the ISBE numbers. Those are for all students, not just Pre-K.

  35 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Marwig responds *** McAuliffe’s oops on “W” mailer, Marwig whacked by Rosemont

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* McAuliffe gets some free publicity

Chicago’s only Illinois House Republican is taking advantage of a historic World Series run — printing out a “W” poster in campaign mail ads that when placed on a window show the grinning faces of Michael McAuliffe and his family decked out in Cubs gear.

The Cubs last year filed applications with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office to expand its trademark of the “W” sign — which flies above Wrigley Field after victories and is a staple at Cubs fans’ homes.

McAuliffe’s campaign said the political mailer isn’t selling a product, and isn’t causing confusion in the marketplace, which would mean a trademark infringement. […]

Also of note, a misspelling of legendary broadcaster Harry Caray’s name: “History is in the making, and so for Ron Santo, Ernie Banks, Jack Brickhouse, Harry Carey, and all the other Cub players and announcers who never got to drink from the sweet cup of victory . . . let’s go Cubs!”

* Meanwhile, from a press release…

The Village of Rosemont today charged the political campaign of Merry Marwig with releasing deliberately false and misleading information that infringes on the village’s trademarked “Rose” and intentionally and deceptively implies that a political advertisement is from Mayor Brad Stephens. In a letter to Marwig, Rosemont attorneys called for her campaign to cease and desist the use of the village’s iconic trademarked “Rose” and demanded that Marwig renounce a political mailer sent to village residents which falsely and deceptively implies that Mayor Brad Stephens is endorsing Marwig for political office.

Mayor Stephens said Marwig’s campaign had devolved from political chicanery to outright illegality by using Rosemont’s trademark on a political letter that bears Rosemont’s seal and then signing it with the initial “B’, deceptively implying that Mayor Stephens had authored it. In the handwritten note, Marwig is endorsed for state representative. While trademarks are often borrowed for clever non-harmful reasons, Marwig’s campaign has engaged in outright deception.

“This is political dirty trickery at its worst and I am sickened that Merry Marwig, a candidate for state representative would condone it,” Mayor Stephens said. “We are today demanding that Marwig repudiate this false and deceptive ad and that she identify all persons involved in its production or dissemination so appropriate legal action can be taken.”

Rosemont said it would take whatever actions were lawful and appropriate to protect its rights including filing a complaint with the Illinois State Board of Elections. The Village also indicated it would ask the U.S. Attorney and the U.S. Postal Inspection Service to investigate the matter for possible mail fraud and other illegalities.

The flier is here.

I doubt they have a federal case, but messing with Rosemont is never advisable.

*** UPDATE ***  From Merry Marwig…

“I have spoken with and received great support from Rosemont residents, but I don’t know who sent this letter.

“Earlier this year, Michael McAuliffe admitted to calling me a ‘girl’ when talking about me to voters. He looks down on women, has a shameful record on women’s issues and has now convinced Mayor Bradley Stephens to join him in his crusade to keep women from holding elected office.

“Voters are outraged. They’re outraged by Michael McAuliffe’s shameful record on women’s issues, and they’re outraged that Mayor Stephens is in line to receive a $260,000 taxpayer-funded salary when most other mayors in the suburbs receive a fraction of that obscene amount, while his family members are appointed to six-figure patronage jobs.”

Ouch.

  31 Comments      


Closing ads start to air

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the NRCC…

The National Republican Congressional Committee is on the airwaves today with a new ad outlining the important differences between predictable partisan Brad Schneider and Bob Dold, one of the most independent members of Congress. Whether it is his support for the dangerous deal with Iran or billions in higher taxes, Brad Schneider has proven he can’t be trusted to do what is right for Illinois. Luckily, Bob Dold is one of the most bipartisan members of Congress, opposes the Iran Deal, and has consistently looked out for hardworking taxpayers.

* Ad

* Script…

Two candidates. Important differences. Brad Schneider supports the dangerous deal with Iran. Bob Dold opposes it.

Dold fights for Illinois taxpayers. Schneider has supported billions in higher taxes.

Dold is an independent leader – one of the most bipartisan members of Congress. Schneider voted the party line nearly 90%.

Bob Dold – the proven independent choice for Illinois.

* Press release…

Tammy Duckworth’s campaign for U.S. Senate today released its closing argument ad, entitled “Simple.” The 30-second, direct-to-camera positive spot, which will run in every Illinois market, highlights the core of Duckworth’s mission as a public servant: to help Illinois working families achieve economic security and opportunity. Duckworth concludes the ad by asking Illinoisans for their vote.

Over the last week, Duckworth has picked up key endorsements from newspapers around the state, including the State Journal-Register, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Quad-City Times, the Southern Illinoisan, the Chicago Defender, and the Daily Illini, adding to endorsements from the Chicago Sun-Times, Chicago Tribune, and Rockford Register-Star. These endorsements will be featured in regional variations of this ad.

“This ad is the essence of why Tammy is running for Senate and the connection she has made with Illinois voters — and speaks for itself,” Tammy for Illinois campaign manager Kaitlin Fahey said. “We’re thrilled that our campaign has the resources to run this spot statewide, and we’re gratified to have secured so many key endorsements just as Illinoisans are starting to go to the polls. With one week to go, our grassroots campaign will be working around the clock to to fight for every vote across every part of this state.”

* The ad

* Script…

Tammy Duckworth: I know what it’s like to fight for your life behind enemy lines and I know what it’s like to not be left behind. If you elect me to the Senate I’ll be guided by the simple notion that if you don’t give up on yourself, America won’t give up on you. I will fight for every kid trying to pay for college, for every small business trying to grow, and for every family working hard just trying to catch a break. I’m Tammy Duckworth, I approve this message and I’m asking for your vote. Thank You.

* And, finally…

A new video, available at fairgame.fairelectionsil.org, tells the story of a game that feels all too familiar: It’s election season in Illinois, once again, and Governor Bruce Rauner and his billionaire cronies play a game of basketball against Democracy (youth activist Asean Johnson). As the announcer highlights how the Billionaires United have used their money to block popular reform efforts, it seems that our hero, Democracy, can’t buy a shot. By the end of the game, the Billionaires won’t even let Democracy touch the ball. It is clear that the Billionaires are playing by a different set of rules.

That’s the message in the first salvo of a social media campaign that was launched today by the Fair Elections Illinois coalition in response to the rising influence of money in Chicago politics and Illinois State House and Senate campaigns. As the reform groups’ website notes, this is a game that is being played by elected officials on both sides of the aisle, with politicians like Chicago Mayor Rahm Emmanuel and Governor Rauner reaping huge benefits.

The Fair Elections Illinois video helps to educate the public on exactly how their elected officials and big donors use loopholes in the campaign finance system to dramatically alter current policies and to push alternative candidates out of contention. “We are living in unprecedented times,” said Amanda Weaver, Executive Director of Reclaim Chicago. “Billionaires and well-funded special interest groups have never been as powerful as they are today, and we believe that the public deserves to know how a handful of individual donors are reshaping the political landscape in this state.”

This ad campaign comes at a time when huge amounts of money are being moved around by big donors. In just the last couple of weeks, Governor Rauner and his friend, hedge fund CEO Ken Griffin, transferred $5 million to Illinois House Republican Leader Jim Durkin’s campaign. Then Durkin turned around and transferred over $3 million to the House Republican Organization.

Sadly, the story is no different here in Chicago. In February 2015, 79% of Chicago voters supported a ballot question to limit the influence of special interest money by instituting a public campaign financing system.

The ad is here.

  13 Comments      


Another big difference between NYC and Chicago

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Keep in mind while reading this that Chicago has issued just 90 food truck licenses and designated only 40 food truck stands. It has also legalized some food carts, but those numbers are limited as well

New York, though, is still the nation’s food-truck and food-cart capital, with 3,100 legally licensed vendors selling everything from classic hot dogs to small-batch popcorn on almost every corner of the city’s densest areas. (Many more vendors operate illegally.)

And while many cities confine their food trucks and carts to certain main thoroughfares and parks at certain times, New York, with a few exceptions, lets them operate wherever their proprietors like.

Now, New York City Council wants to double the number of food-truck and -cart permits it awards. The permits are good for both carts, which operate on sidewalks and trucks, which operate on streets, whichever the vendor prefers.

And I don’t mean to just pick on Chicago. We could use lots more food trucks and carts everywhere here. It allows people to more easily break into the food business and allows existing restaurants to cheaply test new products.

By all means, responsibly and reasonably regulate their safety and quality, but stop focusing so darned much on quantity.

  16 Comments      


You can’t vote ‘em if you don’t submit their ballot requests

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Last week, 1,500 absentee ballot requests were found in a Rock Island post office box and they had apparently been sitting there for weeks. Local officials initially thought the PO box was owned by the Democrats, but now Rock Island County Clerk Karen Kinney says it’s owned by the Illinois Opportunity Project, co-founded by Dan Proft and Pat Hughes

Ms. Kinney said that, after investigators looked into the postal box, a man brought the ballot applications to her office Thursday and Friday but gave few details on why submitting the applications took weeks. All those applications, she said, will be mailed ballots.

Ms. Kinney has asked Rock Island County State’s Attorney John McGehee, Sheriff Gerry Bustos and the Illinois Attorney General’s office to look into the matter. […]

Pat Hughes, co-founder of the Illinois Opportunity Project, confirmed his group rents a Rock Island postal box for absentee ballot applications. But he said he was unsure if it was the same box, and he will determine if it was. […]

“In Rock Island County, we sent out thousands of applications, and received a little over 1,500 applications in that P.O. box,” he said. “Every single one has been delivered to the clerk.”

It’s getting awful late to send those in.

Oops.

  10 Comments      


Illinois is first in voter accessibility policies, below average in participation

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From WalletHub…

Hi Rich,

With less than a week until Election Day and nearly four in 10 voters in states with no voter-ID requirements falsely believing they must present identification in order to vote, the personal-finance website WalletHub conducted an in-depth analysis of 2016’s Most & Least Politically Engaged States.

In order to determine where Americans are most involved in politics, WalletHub’s analysts compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across seven key indicators of political engagement. They range from “percentage of registered voters in the 2012 presidential election” to “total political contributions per adult population.”

Political Engagement in Illinois (1=Most; 25=Avg.)

    28th – % of Registered Voters in 2012 Presidential Election
    34th – % of Electorate Who Voted in 2014 Midterm Elections
    34th – % of Electorate Who Voted in 2012 Presidential Election
    23rd – Change in % of Electorate Who Actually Voted in 2012 Elections vs. 2008 Elections
    11th – Total Political Contributions per Adult Population
    9th – Civic Education Engagement
    1st – Voter Accessibility Policies

For the full report, please visit:
https://wallethub.com/edu/most-least-politically-engaged-states/7782/

Please let me know if you have any questions or if you would like to schedule a phone, Skype or in-studio interview with one of our experts. Full data sets for specific states and the District are also available upon request.

Best,
Diana Popa
Communications Manager, WalletHub

Methodology is here. According to Popa, voter accessibility is defined by laws governing things like early voting, no-excuse absentee voting, online voter registration and same-day registration.

In addition, Illinois ranked 37th for political engagement by voter aged 18-24, and 26th for political engagement by the elderly.

And we may rank high in average contributions per adult because of a few special folks.

  4 Comments      


Rate the other Biss PAC ad

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* We looked at one of Sen. Daniel Biss’ new anti-Rauner super PAC ads yesterday. Here’s the other ad, which, unlike yesterday’s spot, doesn’t mention Donald Trump. Because of that, I assumed it was only meant for Downstate voters, but a pal told me he saw it on Chicago TV this morning

Lots of numbers in that ad.

Lots.

* Related…

* Illinois Dems put another $3 million into anti-Trump/Rauner push

  55 Comments      


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Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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* Pritzker says graduated tax not his priority for spring session
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