* Counting in Cook County provided Democrat Mike Frerichs with 2,029 net votes late today. As you can see by the chart on the upper right hand side of the blog, Republican Tom Cross now leads Frerichs by just 9,214 votes - a margin of just 0.27 percent.
Chicago still has at least 24,000 votes to count, and suburban Cook has about 5,500.
My intern Marc Reiter called over 20 of the largest election authorities outside the biggest ones this afternoon, and wasn’t able to find any new votes counted, or totals released. Rockford counted about 400 votes later on and Frerichs picked up 164 net votes.
*** UPDATE *** From the Cook County Clerk’s office…
We have about 1,300 mail ballots in hand, which will be counted Monday. We’ll probably have 500-1,000 trickle in over the next week.
Bulk of provisionals will be added Monday - estimate is 6,000/8,000 will be verified and count.
So universe for suburban Cook is likely in the 7,800-8,300 range.
That’s a lot more than Kennedy and I thought were out in Cook. Also, the spokesperson’s math is off. I put the range at 7,800 to 10,300.
…Adding… As mentioned above, Frerichs’ net gain in suburban Cook on Friday was 2,029 votes. That’s out of a counted universe of 7,454 votes. If that ratio holds up, and being conservative here by using the low end of the range, he can expect to get another 2,000 or so net votes out of suburban Cook.
Cross received 19.47 percent in Chicago. Let’s make it 20 percent, and he’d expect to receive 4,800 votes from what we know is left to count there (which could be more, as suburban Cook clearly shows). Frerichs would emerge with a net gain of, conservatively, 14,000 votes.
Adding Chicago and Cook together, we get a conservative net gain of about 16,000 votes. That would put Frerichs ahead by about 6,500 votes. Again, I’m rounding down and being conservative here.
The question now is, how many more votes are left to be counted outside Cook County? And the answer is we just don’t know.
…Adding More… I’m told Lake County has almost 2,000 mail-ins and 1300 provisionals to count. Of the 1,300 provisionals there are 1,018 where voters said they never received a mail ballot so those will have to wait the full 14 days of the vote by mail process to figure out.
The Frerichs people claim late mail-ins are usually Democrats. We’ll have to wait and see, however.
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* From a press release…
Governor-elect Bruce Rauner today announced that Mike Zolnierowicz will serve as his gubernatorial chief of staff.
“I’ve worked closely with Mike Zolnierowicz for more than a year and he has my complete trust and confidence,” Rauner said. “I know he shares my commitment to making our state the most compassionate and competitive in the nation. Mike will be a dedicated public servant whose only focus is on bringing back Illinois.”
“No one has a better understanding or greater love of Illinois than Mike Zolnierowicz,” U.S. Senator Mark Kirk said. “Mike is an outstanding choice who will serve the people well.”
Mike Zolnierowicz
Mike Zolnierowicz currently serves as director of the Bruce Rauner Transition Committee. He previously worked as deputy campaign manager for Citizens for Rauner, Inc., overseeing more than 500 paid employees and more than 10,000 volunteers. Prior to joining the Rauner campaign, Zolnierowicz served as deputy chief of staff for U.S. Senator Mark Kirk. As deputy chief of staff, Zolnierowicz managed the Senator’s Illinois operations, overseeing the Senator’s work with key stakeholders, including community leaders, the Congressional delegation, the state legislature and Constitutional officers. Zolnierowicz graduated from Downers Grove North High School and graduated Phi Beta Kappa and magna cum laude from Hope College.
One of the most solid guys I’ve ever met.
*** UPDATE *** I wouldn’t put too much stock in this Tribune story about Rauner’s potential advisers if I were you. Rauner’s team is most definitely leak averse, and this doesn’t look like a leak to me. Instead, it looks like a few folks promoting themselves. Probably not a great idea.
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Question of the day
Friday, Nov 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* We’re only supposed to have one governor at a time, but Illinois has a history of governors-elect (or governors-in-waiting, in the case of Pat Quinn) who have tried to influence decisions before actually being sworn in. And it happened again yesterday…
The future governor did, however, urge Quinn and lawmakers not to take any major action to enact new laws before his administration takes over Jan. 12.
“I hope that there will be no real significant action take during the lame-duck and with a governor on the way out,” Rauner said.
“I hope that anything of significance to be addressed can wait until mid-January so we can all deal with it together on a bipartisan basis,” he said, adding that major decisions “made by folks who are on their way out of office … would be very inappropriate.”
Quinn, in conceding the race a day earlier, made clear that he would continue to push for passage of an increase in the state’s minimum wage to at least $10 an hour from its current $8.25 an hour rate.
* Because of that Quinn promise, Rauner made it particularly clear that the minimum wage should not be raised until he takes office. The response…
As far as attempting to raise the minimum wage, [Cullerton spokesman John Patterson] said: “Those would all be conversations to have with the members to see what they’re interested in doing.”
Steve Brown, spokesman for Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, reiterated that.
“I think if there’s support for any particular proposal the Legislature should act,” Brown said.
* Statewide support for raising the minimum wage was two-to-one on Tuesday…
Yes 2,262,241 (66.7%)
No 1,129,856 (33.3%)
And the referendum didn’t just ask whether voters supported raising the minimum wage to $10 an hour, it asked whether that should be done before January 1, 2015 - which is, of course, before Rauner takes office.
The GA can also delay implementation until June 1 so that it only requires a simple majority vote.
* The Question: Should the General Assembly vote on raising the minimum wage before January 1? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
survey service
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A look at Chicago turnout
Friday, Nov 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Chicago’s election returns are being examined closely because the 2015 mayor’s race has already begun. Here’s Mary Mitchell…
In the city’s 20 predominantly black wards, Quinn got about 12,319 fewer votes than he did in 2010. Citywide, Quinn got 40,247 fewer votes than in 2014. The incumbent governor lost by more than 170,000 votes.
Interestingly enough, Quinn actually did better in some predominantly black wards than he did four years ago.
For instance, in the South Side’s 9th Ward, which includes the Roseland area, Quinn got 15,964 votes compared to 13,895 in 2010. Rauner picked up only 511 votes, 81 fewer than Scott Lee Cohen did in 2010.
Rather than a black backlash, it appears a lot of Democratic voters decided they couldn’t hold their noses.
In 2010, 689,951 Chicago residents cast ballots in the governor’s race, compared to 621,995 cast on Tuesday.
* Dan Mihalopoulos…
A coalition of labor and activist groups claimed it registered 80,000 new voters in Chicago this year. They failed badly in their first attempt to channel those voters, for Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn’s re-election bid.
Rather than bringing more people to the polls Tuesday, voter turnout was down sharply in the city’s wards compared to the 2010 election. According to the city’s election authorities, less than 622,000 votes were cast — a drop of about 70,000 in four years. Quinn received more than 40,000 votes fewer in Chicago than four years ago.
The campaign that boasted of registering so many new voters was called Every Vote Counts and also signed up new voters in the Cook County suburbs. It involved staunch Emanuel foes such as the Chicago Teachers Union, the Service Employees International Union Healthcare Illinois Indiana and the Grassroots Collaborative activist group.
That campaign failed miserably. Absolutely miserably.
* Greg Hinz…
Gov.-elect Bruce Rauner did do OK out in Milwaukee Avenue land, snagging 38 percent in the 39th Ward, 40 percent in the 38th Ward and a near-majority 47 percent in the 41st Ward — the last ward in Chicago to have given most of its votes to a GOP gubernatorial nominee, Jim Ryan against Rod Blagojevich in 2002.
But this election, Mr. Rauner outpolled Democrat Pat Quinn by an unofficial 7,707 to 7,346 in the 42nd Ward, which covers the heart of downtown, according to the latest unofficial totals.
Equally notable, Mr. Rauner came within 90 votes of snagging Lincoln Park’s 43rd Ward and at latest count had 43.51 percent of the vote in the new 2nd Ward, which snakes from Ukrainian Village south and east to the Near North Side. Almost as good, he cracked the one-third mark in the 32nd Ward, which covers the increasingly upscale Bucktown/Wicker Park area, and Lake View’s 44th Ward.
Some of that is because of the hard work of long-ignored Chicago GOP leaders. “It’s the fruition of years of effort,” says 42nd Ward GOP Committeeman Eloise Gerson. “We’ve touched base with the people.”
But most of it, I suspect, has to do with the nature of the neighborhoods that mostly feed downtown’s growth industries: finance and technology, trading and upper-level management, law and accounting. Those folks mostly are social liberals, but Mr. Rauner’s entrepreneurial, pro-business “growth” message almost certainly resonated with them more than Mr. Quinn’s attacks on Mr. Rauner’s wealth and how he obtained it.
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What’s up with the state treasurer’s race?
Friday, Nov 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Scott Kennedy’s Illinois Election Data website is by far the most useful, most up to date, most indispensable site anywhere in this state. He’s far ahead of both the AP and Reuters, and that’s why I’m using his numbers (posted in the near upper right hand corner) as we track the oh so close state treasurer’s race.
Kennedy was concerned about the freshness of numbers from 20 small counties, so I had my new intern Marc Reiter call all of them today. Nothing has changed yet from the AP’s original results.
* So, who’s gonna win this thing? Scott wrote the following analysis exclusively for us…
The margin as of the morning of 11/7 is Cross by 11,407 per my unofficial count.
Here is what is known and unknown:
The City of Chicago still has almost 24K votes to count and Frerichs will net a margin probably somewhere between 10K and 15K out of that.
I am told that Cook has about 13K votes to count. Yesterday Cook counted about 6,500 votes and Frerichs netted about 1,500 votes, if that trend stays the same Frerichs will likely net another 2,000 to 4,00 votes here.
On Wednesday night, both DuPage and McHenry updated their numbers from election night. I expect these were mail ballots. Cross netted about 3,700 and 4,900 votes respectively from those two updates. As near as I can tell neither Lake or Will has provided a similar update. Also, Kane should be looked at too but it’s important to remember that both the Kane County Clerk and the Aurora election authority have jurisdiction there.
* Here are some questions that when answered would give us a better picture overall:
- In these collar counties, how many uncounted votes are there that are not included in the data publicly available on the county websites and when is it expected to be counted/updated?
- It would also be helpful if someone did the same for the next 20 or so biggest counties.
- Last, the State Board of Elections typically has no election results until the certified totals are reported to them in about a month but one bit of useful information they do have concerns the number of early voters and vote by mail applicants. During the election season each election authority has to report the list of people voting early or by mail within about 48 hours to the State Board and then that data is made available to the state parties so they can update their voter files nightly. The State Board should be able to use this data to give a count by county of the number of vote by mail people for each.
It’s important to remember that even with vote by mail there will be several numbers here. The number of people who applied for a ballot, the number of ballots returned to the election authorities that either have been counted or still need to be counted, and then the number of ballots that have not yet been returned but potentially could still legally show up in the mail and be valid votes.
You can do a little math to come up with some likely scenarios based on what is known but there are a lot of unknowns still to be resolved before you can accurately predict the final outcome for sure.
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* As we all know by now, Bruce Rauner said this on election night…
“I placed two very important phone calls. I called Speaker Madigan. I called [Senate] President [John] Cullerton, and I said to them ‘This is an opportunity for us to work together.’”
* Rauner admitted yesterday that he didn’t talk to either man. He said he called Madigan’s chief of staff and left a voicemail and said “I…we” called Cullerton’s chief of staff.
Madigan’s spokesman said Tim Mapes received a call from an “unknown number” and let it go to voicemail. Mapes was kinda busy on election night and didn’t have time to chat with someone he didn’t know. Mapes didn’t listen to the voicemail until yesterday after he was told what Rauner said. Madigan had previously checked all of his lines because the Rauner campaign insisted that Bruce had tried to call him. Sun-Times…
“Why he called a staff person’s cell phone from an unknown number” was beyond him, [Steve Brown] said.
“The bottom line is, they never talked on election night,” Brown said of Rauner and Madigan.
Notice a change in tone?
* Cullerton’s chief Dave Gross said he answered the call and some staffer he didn’t know started going on about something or another and he cut the guy off and said something like “I get it, Rauner wants to talk to Cullerton,” said he’d pass the word and clicked off. He was kinda busy too.
Anyway, now you know.
* John Kass gets the last word…
Elected officials are taken at their word, until they don’t have one. And then it’s over.
The Boss Madigan fib isn’t a monumental thing. But it’s not a tiny little thing either. You might think of it as a wake-up call from the Boss to Bruce.
So wake up, Bruce Rauner.
It was an unforced rookie error. He’ll make more. Hopefully, not too many more.
Rauner says he’s working on setting up a meeting soon with Madigan and Cullerton. I’d sure love to be in that room.
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Today’s number: $97.31 million
Friday, Nov 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Kent Redfield sent this to me on election day and I shared it with subscribers. Here are the top contributors to Bruce Rauner since he started running in 2013. His total raised as of election day at 9:45 am was $65.89 million…
$27,559,000 Rauner, Bruce
$8,650,000 Republican Governors Association
$4,939,000 Griffin, Kenneth – Financial Citadel
$2,526,000 Illinois Republican Party – in-kind contributions (Citizens for Rauner transferred $7.950 million to the IL Rep. Party)
$640,000 Uihlein, Richard & Elizabeth - Uline Corp
$565,000 IL Manufacturers Association Manufacturers PAC
$405,000 Christie, Elizabeth – Retired executive - Manufacturing
$405,000 Jannotta Jr, Edgar – Financial Investor
$280,000 Tullman, Glen - Financial 7Wire Ventures
$253,000 Digital Greensigns
$250,000 IL State Medical Society PAC
$250,000 Singer, Paul – Business Elliot Management Corp
$247,000 MacLean-Fogg Company & MacLean family
$223,000 Alpine Bancorporation Inc
$219,000 Macneil, David – Manufacturing McNeil Automotive Products
$205,000 Mansueto, Joe - Financial - Morningstar
$161,000 Keiser, Michael – Manufacturing RPG Corp
$155,000 Schwertfeger, Timothy Retired Nuveen Investments
$150,000 IL Chamber of Commerce Chamber PAC
$136,000 Lefkofsky, Eric – Financial Lightbank
$135,000 Trott, Byron – Financial BDT Capital Partners
$111,000 PEAK6 Investments
$110,000 Associated General Contractors of IL
$105,000 Kunkler, William – Manufacturing CC Industries
$104,000 Pritzker, Jennifer – Financial Tawani Enterprises
$100,000 Siebel, Tony – Energy C3 Energy
$100,000 Brinson, Gary, Financial GB Brinson Investments
$100,000 Childs, John – Financial JW Childs Assocaites
* Here are Gov. Quinn’s top contributors since 2013. His total raised was $31.42 million…
$4,941,000 Democratic Governors Association
$1,778,000 SEIU IL Council PAC Fund
$1,250,000 SEIU HealthCare IL IN PAC
$1,005,000 Eychaner, Fred – Media Newsweb Corp
$1,120,000 UA Political Education Committee Pipe Trades
$781,000 Laborers Political League Education Fund
$583,000 Engineers Political Education Committee Separate Education Com IUOE
$555,000 IUOE Local 150
$551,000 IL Education Association IPACE
$567,000 IBEW PAC Voluntary Fund
$513,000 United Food & Commercial Workers International Union
$500,000 Drive Political Committee Teamsters
$378,000 Illinois Federation of Teachers
$355,000 SEIU COPE – National
$352,000 Pritzker, J.B. & M.K. - Financial Pritzker Group
$300,000 International Association of Fire Fighters
$281,000 I UPAT Political Action Together Painters Union
$278,000 UAW IL United Auto Workers
$253,000 Construction & Gen Laborers District Council Chicago & Vicinity
$250,000 UAW V – CAP
$250,000 Chicago Land Operators Joint-Labor Management PAC (IUOE Local 150)
$200,000 American Federation of Teachers
$200,000 Working for Working Americans
$188,000 Chicago Regional Council of Carpenters
$178,000 IL Hospital Association
$175,000 Chicago for Rahm Emanuel
$160,000 Brandt, William CEO Development Specialist, Inc. & Development Specialists
$148,000 IUOE Local 399
$131,000 Realtor PAC IL Realtors Assn
$129,000 Cook County Teachers Unions (Community College)
$115,000 Teamsters Volunteers in Politics
* Kent also aggregated Quinn’s top 10 union groups…
$3.383 million SEIU
$1.741 million IUOE
$1.491 million Pipe Trades Unions
$1.387 million Laborers Unions
$1.381 million Teacher Unions
$0.791 million Teamsters
$0.660 million IBEW
$0.528 million UAW
$0.513 million UFCW
$0.467 million Fire Fighters Unions
Total: $12.342 million
* Keep in mind that these totals don’t include Independent Expenditures by groups like Illinois Freedom PAC, the Local 150 spending for the Libertarian Party candidate, Personal PAC’s money, and ballot initiative money. When you total all that up, we’re over $100 million.
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