Question of the day
Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I gave my first speech since pre-COVID times today and I’ve spent the past half an hour looking for stuff to ask you about and I’m finding a whole bunch of nothing. So…
* The Question: What would you like to see the General Assembly do before the April adjournment? Explain.
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* For decades, business and labor have sat down to negotiate how to solve any issues related to the state’s unemployment insurance program. The resulting compromises were then taken to the leadership in both parties and bills would be passed on a bipartisan basis because the leaders all give their word to stick to the deal. But negotiations apparently aren’t going well and a deadline is looming, so this letter from the House GOP Leader appears to break from the past in a major way…
Governor Pritzker,
Before the pandemic, our state’s unemployment insurance trust fund had a positive balance of more than $2.2 billion. The historic surge of unemployment benefit applications that began with the stay-at-home order quickly drained that balance and has now put the trust fund over $4.5 billion in debt—a debt that continues to grow as interest charges accrue daily. On top of the legitimate unemployment claims, Illinois also experienced a historic level of fraud—the total dollar amount of which your administration still refuses to estimate or release. These claims worsened the fund’s financial condition through no fault of employers or workers.
More than a year ago, my colleagues and I called attention to this debt and warned of the consequences of inaction, specifically that failing to pay off the debt would require a massive tax increase on businesses and a reduction in unemployment benefits for Illinois workers.
Unlike many of the other structural problems Illinois faces, this one-time COVID-related debt also came with a one-time COVID-related solution: Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES) and American Recovery Plan Act (ARPA) funds. Many other states faced the same challenge we do, and they responsibly used these federal relief dollars to pay off their unemployment insurance debt and avoid tax increases or benefit reductions.
Unfortunately, the current fiscal year budget passed by Democrats in the House and Senate did not dedicate a single dime to paying off this pandemic-era debt. When the budget came to your desk, you used your amendatory veto authority to make changes to certain enactment dates in the poorly drafted and hastily enacted budget. You had an opportunity to address the unemployment insurance trust fund debt at this point in time, but you instead chose to ignore the problem, just like you ignored the roughly $1.5 billion in ARPA “pet project” spending that was added in by democrat legislators in the final hours of the spring legislative session.
While Illinois cannot recover the $40 million paid in interest due to ignoring this problem so far, it’s not too late to stem the bleeding now. Of the more than $11.5 billion in CARES and ARPA funding the State of Illinois has received from the federal government, it appears that nearly $6.94 billion has not yet been spent. That means we still have sufficient funding to eliminate the unemployment insurance debt entirely and still have almost $2.5 billion remaining to pay for real COVID-related costs.
This problem could have been solved a year ago, and we could have avoided tens of millions of dollars in interest charges. But instead, Springfield is doing what it so often does: playing a game of brinkmanship with an April 1 federal deadline looming.
Let’s not raise taxes on Illinois businesses as they fight to emerge from the pandemic. Let’s not cut benefits for Illinois workers who may soon need the protection that unemployment insurance offers. Instead, let’s use the federal funds we have available to solve this problem once and for all.
Sincerely,
House Republican Leader Jim Durkin
Deputy Republican Leader Tom Demmer
I asked for their breakdown of available ARPA money…
Notice that the chart says “spent” appropriations. According to the governor’s office, another $3 billion or so has already been appropriated by the legislature and is awaiting approval from the US Treasury. This unspent money is mainly capital projects, but there are also several one-time items like violence prevention programs.
What’s actually left, the governor’s office says, is $3.5 billion.
Bottom line is the Republicans don’t want to vote for any election-year employer tax hikes at all even if unions agree to benefit cuts. The agreed bill process may be on its last legs.
…Adding… Similar or coordinated message from the Richard Irvin campaign earlier today…
While JB Pritzker continues to push his election year gimmicks, his failure to lead will result in higher taxes and lower wages across Illinois as the gaping hole in the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Trust Fund continues to grow. Pritzker has thus far refused to use federal ARPA funds to replenish the shortfall and create a reserve balance in this crucial social safety net program. His lack of action results in $2 million in interest charges a week.
Instead of using the federal funds to fill this hole, Pritzker chose to pledge them towards one-time election year gimmicks of fake tax relief. If Pritzker continues to withhold the federal bailout funds, employers could see their unemployment taxes go up and employees could see their benefits cut.
The state’s Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund currently has a deficit of over $4 billion – plus interest. That number would just cover the deficit; much more will be needed to replenish the fund’s reserves. Even worse, a recent news investigation found the Department of Employment Security knowingly gave money to scammers and the Pritzker Administration refuses to disclose how much the Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund has lost due to fraud.
“JB Pritzker has never seen a tax increase he didn’t like, so it’s no surprise he’s angling to pull the wool over the eyes of Illinoisans once again,” said Irvin for Illinois spokesperson Eleni Demertzis. “This is his failure that taxpayers are now on the hook for, something that could have and should have been prevented.”
According to IRMA, state law has ‘speed bumps’ written into it that are expected to trigger $500 million in tax increases for employers and $500 million in benefit cuts for employees. Despite lawmakers pushing for Pritzker to use federal funds to replenish the debt, he has continued to stall as an April 1st federal deadline looms. Without action, higher taxes on employers and reduced benefits for workers are inevitable.
…Adding… Pritzker campaign…
At a time when working families across the state need assistance, we need to be honest about what Richard Irvin is objecting to in the governor’s budget proposal: tax relief for Illinoisans. Ken Griffin’s hold on Irvin remains so tight that even Bruce Rauner would blush at his rejection of policies that would help working families. Voters can see this candidacy and these embarrassing objections for exactly what they are and no amount of spin from Irvin’s team of Rauner rejects can change the truth.
…Adding… Jordan Abudayyeh…
Following the established agreed bill process, that for years has resulted in compromise, there have been 13 formal meetings and countless discussions since January 11th between business and labor along with lawmakers from both sides of the aisle. Earlier this year, Rep. Demmer asked the Governor’s Office what it means to have a seat at the grown-ups table. We would tell the Representative it means not abandoning a bipartisan and sincere effort to follow a decades long agreed bill process in favor of scoring cheap political points at a critical moment in the negotiations. The Pritzker administration will continue to convene all parties and negotiate in good faith for a compromise that is fair to both businesses and workers.
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* Subscribers received a full run-down on this yesterday morning. Here’s Politico…
There was a scared-straight incident in a private House Democratic Caucus meeting the other day.
A poll was floated showing Gov. JB Pritzker facing suburban headwinds — even trailing Republican governor candidates Richard Irvin and Darren Bailey.
Problem is there was no explanation about which suburb was polled. A source familiar with the data tells Playbook that the burb wasn’t Cook County but conservative and swing-district areas where House Dems are trying to gain traction. That didn’t prevent the gulp some lawmakers had.
The poll, which was first reported by Capitol Fax blog, was conducted by Tulchin Research — the same group that has polled for Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle and New York Mayor Eric Adams. The poll also addressed issues of concern — the top item being crime, surprising anyone.
Others familiar with the poll say House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch was trying to light a fire under Democrats to get them on the campaign trail by showing that no contest can be taken for granted. He asked his caucus to keep the numbers private, which didn’t go so well. (Hey, they were scared.) A House Democrats spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.
The poll’s data created such a kerfuffle that a separate, unrelated survey was made public to show folks that Pritzker is doing just fine in the northern suburbs.
In that poll conducted by Personal PAC, respondents from Lake, Kendall, Kane, DeKalb, McHenry counties were asked a range of questions, including whether they approved of President Joe Biden — 47 percent said yes and 45 percent said no; and whether they approved of Pritzker — 48 percent said yes and 42 percent said no. It’s polling that might offer Dems some momentary relief. Though don’t count on it.
The top item was not crime. The crime and violence issue was tied for 4th place with the price of gas and the cost of living, and 6th place if you look at those who were “extremely concerned,” similar to that Senate poll we talked about a while ago. The crime numbers were still very high, however. But, again, this poll was designed to frighten members, not to enlighten them about what’s actually going on in most of their districts.
I also went over Personal PAC’s poll with subscribers yesterday. The poll was sent to me not long after I started poking around over the weekend. It’s worth a read.
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* Clare Spaulding at the Tribune has a comprehensive story about the ongoing disaster that is DCFS. I chose to focus on these excerpts, but the whole thing is worth a read for context…
“DCFS is in the worst shape it’s been in 30 years,” said Cook County Public Guardian Charles Golbert, whose office legally represents more than 7,000 children involved in the child welfare system. “At some point, everybody involved in child welfare — judges, providers, lawyers — has to say, ‘Enough is enough. Drastic times call for drastic measures.’” […]
It was during that time that one of Rauner’s appointed DCFS directors, George Sheldon, set out to reform the system by moving children out of residential treatment centers and instead prioritizing specialized foster care, an idea most advocates support, said Golbert, the Cook County public guardian. But success would require a “robust system of community-based services,” Golbert said — something that didn’t exist when Sheldon dissolved contracts with residential centers, and still doesn’t exist today.
“A lot of the problems we’re seeing today really go back to that horrible decision to get rid of 500 beds before we had beds to replace them,” Golbert said. “DCFS already had a shortage of beds, and then it got 500 beds worse.” […]
Children being kept in psychiatric hospitals beyond what was medically necessary was part of the impetus for the consent decree. By the end of the 1990s, instances of this did still happen, but they were “pretty unusual,” Golbert said.
Now, it’s “widespread and common again,” Golbert said, noting there were 356 children under DCFS care kept beyond medical necessity in the 2021 fiscal year. The department is “on track for another very sad record this year,” Golbert said.
Go read the whole thing.
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Michael Flynn endorses Gary Rabine
Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Republican gubernatorial candidate Gary Rabine…
I am honored to receive the endorsement of Lt. General Michael Flynn, President Trump’s former National Security Advisor, decorated war hero and patriot. General Flynn recognizes that we need to elect a principled, life-long conservative who has the experience to fix the mess in Illinois created by Mike Madigan and JB Pritzker. His statement in support of my campaign is below.
“Today, I proudly endorse and pledge my full support to Gary Rabine for Governor of Illinois. Our nation needs more leaders like Gary to step forward and serve. Gary is a self-made business success story. A man of principle, integrity and passion for public service. He believes that the power of government is derived from the citizens and that individual freedoms are sacrosanct. Gary’s contributions to the conservative movement are unequaled by any other candidate this election cycle - he does not just talk conservative, he takes action.
For example, Gary filed the lawsuit against Biden’s unconstitutional employer vaccine mandate. He refused to fire any of his employees over their personal decision to receive or not receive a Covid vaccine. Gary pursued the case and fought all the way to the United States Supreme Court and won. That ruling was one of most significant victories for personal freedom in decades and created a ripple effect easing overreaching government mandates nationwide. Gary helped protect over 80 million American workers and will always put the citizens of Illinois and America first.
Gary Rabine is a good and decent man, a family man and a man of faith. And in Illinois, it must start there. With good people willing to take on difficult battles and willing to bear personal risk to serve and protect the freedoms that we as citizens hold so dear.”
* From Flynn’s Wikipedia bio…
After leaving the military, in October 2014 he established Flynn Intel Group, which provided intelligence services for businesses and governments, including in Turkey. In December 2015, Flynn was paid $45,000 to deliver a Moscow speech at the ten-year anniversary celebration of RT, a state-controlled Russian international television network, where he sat next to Russian president Vladimir Putin at his banquet table.
In February 2016, Flynn became a national security advisor to Trump for his 2016 presidential campaign. In March 2017, Flynn retroactively registered as a foreign agent, acknowledging that in 2016 he had conducted paid lobbying work that may have benefited Turkey’s government. On January 22, 2017, Flynn was sworn in as the National Security Advisor. On February 13, 2017, he resigned after information surfaced that he had misled Vice President Mike Pence and others about the nature and content of his communications with Russian ambassador to the United States Sergey Kislyak. Flynn’s tenure as the National Security Advisor is the shortest in the history of the position.
In December 2017, Flynn formalized a deal with Special Counsel Robert Mueller to plead guilty to a felony count of “willfully and knowingly” making false statements to the FBI about the Kislyak communications, and agreed to cooperate with the Special Counsel’s investigation. In June 2019, Flynn dismissed his attorneys and retained Sidney Powell, who on the same day wrote to attorney general Bill Barr seeking his assistance in exonerating Flynn. Powell had discussed the case on Fox News and spoken to President Trump about it on several occasions. Two weeks before his scheduled sentencing, in January 2020 Flynn moved to withdraw his guilty plea, claiming government vindictiveness and breach of the plea agreement. At Barr’s direction, the Justice Department filed a court motion to drop all charges against Flynn on May 7, 2020. Presiding federal judge Emmet Sullivan ruled the matter to be placed on hold to solicit amicus curiae briefs from third parties. Powell then asked the DC Circuit Court of Appeals to compel Sullivan to drop the case, but her request was denied. On November 25, 2020, Flynn was issued a presidential pardon by Trump. On December 8, 2020, Judge Sullivan dismissed the criminal case against Flynn, stating he probably would have denied the Justice Department motion to drop the case.
On July 4, 2020, Flynn pledged an oath to the pro-Trump QAnon conspiracy theory, and as Trump sought to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in which he was defeated, Flynn suggested the president should suspend the Constitution, silence the press, and hold a new election under military authority. Flynn later met with Trump and their attorney Powell in the Oval Office to discuss the president’s options. Trump denied reports that Flynn’s martial law idea had been discussed. On January 8, 2021, Twitter permanently banned Flynn, Powell and others who promoted QAnon.
* There’s also stuff like this…
Gotta wonder what never-Trumper Pat Brady thinks of his own unpaid Rabine advisory role these days.
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* A little history from the Illinois Policy Institute…
As of right now, 78 House races have contested primaries and/or general elections: 65 incumbents have challengers and 13 open-seat House districts have more than one candidate. That means 66 percent of districts have contested races and 34 percent are uncontested. The contested number will undoubtedly decrease after petition challenges are heard, but may go back up if local committeepersons and county parties eventually fill empty slots with appointed candidates, which Republicans may actually do because 2022 is shaping up to be a good year for them.
So, there is some progress. But acknowledging even a little progress means setting aside or down-playing the well-established talking points about how low candidate activity is just another symptom of Illinois’ serious problems.
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Welcome back, Tina!
Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tina Sfondeles left the Sun-Times for more challenges and better money in DC. But she loves Chicago, so she came back home and the Sun-Times eventually made her an offer she couldn’t refuse. Tina is more than a respected colleague and one heckuva reporter, she’s also a friend and I just could not be happier for her and for the Sun-Times and its readers. Here’s Robert Feder…
It’s back to the Sun-Times for Tina Sfondeles as chief political reporter following a whirlwind of reporting jobs in Washington, D.C., and public relations work in Chicago. Sfondeles will rejoin the paper Monday, according to interim editor in chief Steve Warmbir. “With her excellent sourcing on local, state and national levels, she will only add to the Sun-Times tradition of political coverage that’s second to none,” Warmbir wrote in an email to staff. “She’s a phenomenal addition to our great roster of first-rate political journalists here at the Sun-Times and our new colleagues at WBEZ.” In her first run at the Sun-Times, Sfondeles rose from preps sports writer and wire reporter to chief political reporter. She resigned in 2020 to join the Washington-based political team of Business Insider, and she later covered the White House for Politico. Since January she’s been vice president of public and media relations for Mac Strategies Group, a strategic communications and government relations firm.
Tina told me yesterday she won’t be covering Springfield this session to avoid any potential conflicts due to her brief stint at Mac’s shop.
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Open thread
Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Please keep it Illinois-centric and be kind to each other. Thanks.
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