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TRIBUNE POLL: Emanuel at 49, Chico in second, Braun totally tanking

Friday, Feb 11, 2011

[Bumped up for visibility.]

* Rahm Emanuel is right on the cusp of avoiding a runoff, according to the Tribune’s pollster

Miguel del Valle was at 8 percent and the two others polled at 1 percent each.

* From the story

(T)he poll showed Braun’s support among black voters cut nearly in half since last month — from 39 percent to 20 percent. […]

At the same time, twice as many voters — 44 percent to 22 percent — now view Braun unfavorably than favorably. Three weeks ago, 39 percent liked Braun, compared with 30 percent who disliked her. Among African-Americans, her unfavorability tally jumped to 30 percent from 11 percent. […]

While Emanuel’s favorability rating of 59 percent remained unchanged from a month ago, his unfavorability rose slightly to 16 percent from 13 percent following Chico’s commercials about Emanuel’s tax plan, which Chico has dubbed the “Rahm Tax.” […]

When asked which candidate would pay most attention to neighborhoods they live in, 37 percent said Emanuel, 19 percent said Chico, 11 percent said Braun and 10 percent said del Valle, who has pushed a similar pro-neighborhoods message.

Chico better go hard, hard negative if he wants to make it into a runoff.

…Adding… Related…

* Braun, Chico blister Rahm at debate: Chico said he was “scared for my children” as they traveled back and fourth to pubic schools, but, he said, “Growing up in our city in the Back of the Yards and living with the threat of violence even in my own neighborhood stays with you. There are people like Mr. Emanuel, who grew up in the wealthy North Shore and probably never experienced that.”

* Live blog of FOX-32 Chicago mayor’s race forum

* Mayoral candidates jostle at forum - Rivals press to force Emanuel into a runoff

* Video: Mayoral Candidates Face Off in Live One-Hour Forum on FOX Chicago

* A bone to pick with Rahm

* Down in the polls, Braun attacks Emanuel’s investment banking job

* Dispatches from the spin room: post-FOX-32 Chicago mayor’s forum

* Emanuel faces ire from some unions, other groups

* Payday lenders concentrated in minority communities

* Next mayor must vow to uphold Shakman

* Daley to turn Taste of Chicago over to park district

* CS-T editorial: The cost of a free Taste — music festivals taking a hit

* Labor Tops Giving to Chicago Council Candidates

* Anything Wrong With This Picture? “Correct me if I am wrong, but I did not think that city employees could use city owned property, i.e. a Streets & San truck, in campaign literature?

* VIDEO: Young politicians take on Chicago

* A product of the old school, candidate vows independence in the 29th Ward

* Crowded field battles in 45th Ward

* City requires show shoveling

* Carbondale City Council candidates meet voters (VIDEOS)

- Posted by Rich Miller        


22 Comments
  1. - Boone Logan Square - Thursday, Feb 10, 11 @ 11:50 pm:

    Two polls less than two weeks out have Rahm at 49-54% with double-digit undecideds?

    1) Unless Rahm’s been hanging out with Christopher Lee, what can Chico do to get him to a runoff?

    2) What are the odds Del Valle gets more votes than Braun? I’d put money on her to show, but only as much as could buy a pizza. (And maybe a glass of organic tea.)


  2. - JBilla - Thursday, Feb 10, 11 @ 11:50 pm:

    Amazing, I don’t know how you do it Mr. Miller, hats off. I enjoy your articles and community commentary and am continually impressed at your up to the minute coverage of this and all Illinois politics.

    A quick question, for the biggest election in 20 years, how would you rate the engagement, the issues, the backdrop nationally, internationally? What do you think of where this city is at, where its going? Describe watching Devin Hester return the opening kick for a touchdown in the Superbowl. Where were you when Princess Leah was beamed into Grant Park on election night ‘08?

    And for Mayoral election on February 22nd, what stands out among the candidates, the electorate? What issues are founding the basis for Chicago’s future?


  3. - Bubs - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 12:10 am:

    Chico’s inability to reel back in the Latino vote (so far) is a real killer. If you figure the Del Valle vote is heavily Puerto Rican, it means Chico is not broadly connecting with his fellow Mexican-Americans, and there sure aren’t enough Greeks in town to make up for that.

    Head straight for Pilsen and Little Village to make it a runoff, Gery!


  4. - Rich Miller - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 12:21 am:

    JBilla, thanks. I think. lol


  5. - aghast - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 12:57 am:

    I’m not buying these numbers. Been back and forth with a pal in Braun’s camp, and they see her in a tight race with Chico for second, with a sample that’s about ten times larger than Day’s. Recall that Jack O’Malley was poised to spank Dick Devine, according to the polls, and Forrest Claypool was gonna give Joe Berrios a real run for his money. Oh, wait. In both of those races … not.


  6. - BSP II - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 12:59 am:

    Braun should be tanking. Her candidacy is a joke. And as Rich said this week, it goes to show that the “consensus candidate” is a joke too. The African American community machine is absolutely broken. I don’t know what it is - a broken structure, a lack of good candidates, or what.

    I’ve already voted for Chico - and I did so as essentially a vote against Rahm. But Chico could be doing much better. Stunts like the dog grooming parlor press conference today have got to go - he has the right message, but stop making it so cutesy. It was covered on Chicago news tonight but it was buried, and it made him look like a second-rate candidate.

    BTW - del Valle should have dropped out 3 weeks ago.

    I hope Chico has the money to hammer away in these last two weeks. Rahm should at the very least have to drop some of his millions in a runoff. Maybe then he’ll be forced to answer some of the questions he’s coyly refused to answer.


  7. - JBilla - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 1:09 am:

    You bet. One more, can’t help myself:

    Every millennial or so a great snow storm precedes a change in leadership in Chicago and the world. the ‘67 storm brought us the Beatles’ Sergeant Pepper Lonely Hearts Club, the Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl, and the country was gaining Nixon fever. Dark days indeed that the limey crew brought us through.

    1979, massive snow storm, Jane Byrne comes to office, the Sahara Desert gets snowed on (the people history), VisiCalc becomes the first commercial spreadsheet program (think Excel, thanks wikipedia). Margaret Thatcher checks into the house on Downing Street, and Reagan close behind on Carter

    1999, schools close… awesome.

    1930, 19.2 inches of snow, Green Bay wins again. Thompson is about to be replaced by Cermak, Hoovervilles, Ghandi’s Salt March, Chicago is broke and the feds are closing in on the liquor biz, http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,738594,00.html,

    and now 2011.

    Green Bay winning and massive snowfall seem to be the perfect storm in this political atmosphere for a little climate change.


  8. - BSP II - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 1:16 am:

    aghast-

    Not to get off topic, but your example is poor at best. Name a poll in the last month of the Berrios/Claypool race that showed Claypool close or winning. There was no way Claypool was going to pull that out, much to the dismay of the anti-establishment donors and voters. He ran a terrible race, just like CMB is in the midst of doing now.

    It’ll never happen, but if del Valle and Braun are anti-Rahm, they should just drop out now and support Chico. Neither of them have the money to compete and Chico could benefit from the liberal/grassroots org support of del Valle and the minimal African American support of Braun.


  9. - Slow things down Chicago - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 1:30 am:

    Can someone please clarify why the press has been giving so much cred to the ABC7 poll? Generally news organizations don’t trust election polling done by competing news organizations. Yet, everybody ie., channels 2, 5, 9 , Chicago Fox and both newspapers paid a lot of attention to the Richard Day poll and hyped his poll results.

    How do we go from three campaigns internal polls showing the same results Rahm at 40-45 percent; Chico at 20-24 percent and Braun in 3rd place (and tanking) to the ABC7 poll results and now the Tribune’s in a matter of days, with the polling conducted roughly over the same time period?

    The Tribune’s numbers and the internal polling of the Emanuel, Chico and Braun campaigns look similar. So can we discount the ABC7 poll numbers?

    I hope Chicagoans have an opportunity to do a little more vetting of Rahm and Chico since they are the only two with the most to offer. After 20+ years of Mayor Daley, Chicagoans really should take their time and one final long and hard look when it comes to picking his successor to make very sure that whomever succeeds him is truly the best person for the job and the city. If Miguel Del Valle’s stubborness costs Chicagoans the opportunity to do a little more vetting, I can’t see how he should ever be forgiven. He’s never polled in double digits and has raised no money. What more does he need to know or see to understand that the overwhelming majority of Chicago voters do not want him as their mayor? Most voters have no confidence in him and are not interested in him.


  10. - Anonymous - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 7:38 am:

    Slow thing–

    none of the three campaigns actually released their polls which is why no one can truly rely on that report. The Day and Tribune Polls taken together show that Emanuel is close to 50%, Chico is second but not exactly surging and that Braun has tanked. Generally speaking, thats all we know.


  11. - wordslinger - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 8:33 am:

    Emanuel’s anti-Chico spot has been getting a lot of airtime on the news shows.

    I don’t know why he mentions Chico’s “running out of money.” I know that means something to insiders, but the voters? It seems to me Emanuel should pretend money doesn’t matter — since he has the most of it.

    He’s still going with the “employment agency” spot quite a bit, too. They must have some research that shows it has some traction.


  12. - Boone Logan Square - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 10:20 am:

    ==The Tribune’s numbers and the internal polling of the Emanuel, Chico and Braun campaigns look similar. So can we discount the ABC7 poll numbers?==

    You don’t see 49% as closer to 54% than 40%? Or the similarity in movement for Rahm in both the ABC7 and Trib polls? I know trailing campaigns like to squabble about outliers when polls bring bad news, but this sure seems like a trend to ending the race this month.

    Other than reinforcing the ABC7 poll’s portrait of the race, the most interesting thing about the Trib poll is the breakdown of the undecided vote.

    The top four candidates in the newest poll total 86% of the vote. Give the two other candidates a total of 2% (which may be generous but is consistent with reported support) and we are left with 12% undecided.

    The Trib poll has the following percentages still undecided: 7% of whites, 18% of African-Americans, 6% of Latinos. What might this mean?

    One answer is that the remaining African-American electorate is waiting until the end to decide. Wouldn’t be the first time. Another is that Carol Moseley Braun had some supporters who have moved into this category. Both Emanuel and Chico could have gained from her missteps…although Chico continues to pull little support from African-American voters (6%).

    I suspect the African-American undecideds in this poll are the key to how the final numbers will compare to this poll. Given Chico’s current poor numbers among African-Americans, who is going to bet the bulk of these voters is really going to break for him?

    Wouldn’t surprise me if there’s a decisive late break to Rahm (who has the resources to saturate the market with plaudits from Presidents Obama and Clinton) that makes the ABC7 figure of 54 look accurate (or even low).

    While there is certainly a chance all of the undecideds will flock to Chico and keep Rahm under 50, that’s both statistically unlikely and a tough challenge given the necessity of Chico going negative. It might knock Rahm down but also drive Chico’s unfavorables up. Undecideds won’t go to Braun and I suspect it’s too late for Del Valle to gain traction with anyone who isn’t already supporting him. (Which would include me, not the first time I’ll have a losing horse in this race.)

    The message I get from the Trib and ABC7 polls is we are seeing the final movement in the race, and it is movement to Rahm wrapping things up without a runoff.


  13. - Thoughts... - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 10:46 am:

    BLS- great analysis. As a has-been professional pollster, I couldn’t agree more. What we’re seeing in these polls is trending.

    Can’t speak for the internals of course, but when campaigns are talking about them, they’re generally not that fresh. Figure they closed sometime around Feb 2-4, ABC7 was Feb 3-7 and Trib was Feb 5-9. Figuring in MOEs, you gotta believe the race is trending Rahm bigtime, which kind of makes sense. Gery’s message is “cute” but not sure how effective it is for hard-scrabble Chicagoans dealing, everyone else is either tanking (Braun) or stagnant.

    If the undecideds break in such a way that Rahm doesn’t win on the 22nd, I’d be very surprised. Not ready to bet on it yet, but close…very close.


  14. - Louis G. Atsaves - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 1:10 pm:

    From the Chicago residents I have spoken to they are totally “star-struck” with Emmanuel. It’s like when a major movie star comes to Chicago for a few days and the city goes crazy for him/her.

    They have no idea why they are voting for him other than who he is. They have no idea what his positions or stances are on anything.

    I don’t see a run off on the horizon.

    For those worried about Asian Carp, they can deposit them on Emmanuel’s desk after he wins and he can start mailing them out!


  15. - Bill - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 1:49 pm:

    If AA voters go big for Rahm like the polls are indicating they deserve exactly what they are going to get. The consensus candidate thing could have been effective if their candidate wasn’t a cartoon. Davis and Meeks were also jokes. Where were the AA candidates who would have been credible and had a chance to really win? They are all probably too smart to want to be mayor.


  16. - Rich Miller - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 1:57 pm:

    Bill, this consensus thing was the final gasp of an aging Boomer AA leadership that refuses to believe anyone younger could ever handle the job. BHO had to deal with that very same mindset in the national primaries vs. HRC.

    The bench needed to step up. Meeks thought he was the bench, but he didn’t have what it took.


  17. - Little Egypt - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 2:00 pm:

    I’m pretty sure my opinion will not be shared by many others but here goes.

    I don’t know who is backing Carol M-B for Chicago Mayor but IMHO, the only reason she became a U.S. Senator representing Illinois is that Al Hofeld split the vote so badly (or successfully if you will) between he, Carol M-B, and Alan Dixon. The press has never, or not very often, mentioned this as the reason she rode to victory. Her race and gender were constantly paraded about, but yet, I never felt she would be a successful candidate for anything else. Al Hofeld tried desperately hard to buy that seat in the U.S. Senate for himself and he failed miserably. I was happy actually to see Carol M-B get the office without having to buy that position.


  18. - wordslinger - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 2:11 pm:

    –I don’t know who is backing Carol M-B for Chicago Mayor but IMHO, the only reason she became a U.S. Senator representing Illinois is that Al Hofeld split the vote so badly (or successfully if you will) between he, Carol M-B, and Alan Dixon.–

    I bet virtually everyone agrees with that, once you add in a little Anita Hill.


  19. - Rich Miller - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 2:12 pm:

    Everyone agrees with it because it’s true.


  20. - mokenavince - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 2:21 pm:

    Chicago politics always needs a stalking horse this year it’s Braun.Mayor RJ Daley always had someone like Lar (America First)Daly to run against.She will keep harping and stay in the race.By August she will have a good job.With great hours and full benefits.


  21. - wordslinger - Friday, Feb 11, 11 @ 2:35 pm:

    I’d call Burris, with the million dollar loan he never repaid, a stalking horse in the first Dem primary that Blago won.

    I don’t think Lar against Daley qualifies.


  22. - Jpadilla - Wednesday, Feb 16, 11 @ 12:10 am:

    In my opinion, the media in general have backed Emanuel in every way. Financially, exposure, and hiding his unattrative past. I don’t believe in polls because they often have proven to be wrong.

    In my opinion, Del Valle is the only candidate to have a clean record. The rest of the candidates all have alleged corrupt past. Maybe Chicago might vote for another corrupt politician. Hopefully, Chicagoans will learn from their mistakes and make history by voting for change and the best candidate, Miguel Del Valle.


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