Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » *** UPDATED x13 - Kirk: Map designed to force Pelosi back into power *** Dems unveil new congressional maps and revised state maps
* The Tribune used sources for its story last night on the congressional remap…
*Freshman Republican Rep. Bob Dold of the North Shore 10th Congressional District would find his home mapped into the district of Democratic Rep. Jan Schakowsky, a veteran lawmaker who represents the north lakefront 9th District.
*Freshman Republican Rep. Joe Walsh of the northwest suburban 8th District would be matched with GOP Rep. Donald Manzullo, a veteran lawmaker who represents the 16th District.
*As a result, a new district would open up in the northwest suburbs for Democrats to try to win. Even before the map was unveiled, Raja Krishnamoorthi, a former state deputy treasurer who narrowly lost a bid for the Democratic nomination for state comptroller last year, announced an exploratory bid for Congress. […]
*Downstate, second-term Republican Rep. Aaron Schock of Peoria will give up some ground but will still have a GOP-leaning district as will 11-year Rep. Tim Johnson in west central and southern Illinois. But Republican Rep. John Shimkus would find more Democrats and could face a challenge in his newly drawn southeastern Illinois district.
Tammy Duckworth is also interested in that new northwest suburban district.
* As subscribers know, the Senate Democrats posted the congressional remap data online early this morning. Click here to access the Senate Democrats’ page containing the new congressional map.
*** UPDATE 1 *** For the second time in a week, the Democrats have unknowingly released their own map before they intended to do so. Last Friday, you will recall, the House accidentally posted its map in the morning just long enough for us to grab it. The same thing happened again in the wee hours of this morning. They got everything ready and queued up the page, but didn’t notice that a link to the congressional data was appearing on other, readily available internal pages…
These things happen. I sure hope nobody gets into too much trouble.
It’s a good map for Dems. I think there are 12 likely Dem seats. Bobby Schilling is gone with this map and Adam Kinzinger has to primary either Manzullo, Schock or Shimkus. If he had to primary anyone he wanted Tim Johnson, but he has no real ties to the Johnson areas.
Pretty sure Kinzinger will go after Manzullo if he decides to run.
*** UPDATE 4 *** The House is now debating the state redistricting bill.
The map splits Springfield into two congressional districts. The city is currently represented by three represenatives in the U.S. House.
The new 13th District, which includes U.S. Rep. John Shimkus’ house in Collinsville, takes in virtually all of Springfield from Chatham Road east to Interstate 55.
The new 18th District includes Springfield west of Chatham Road as well as U.S. Rep. Aaron Shock’s house in Peoria.
*** UPDATE 6 *** I really don’t like the idea of using Obama numbers alone to test these new congressional districts, but Dave Wasserman, US House editor of the Cook Political Report, has taken a quick look at the new map. His initial findings…
Initial calculations: new IL08, IL10 and IL11 are both easily over 62% Obama, new IL13 is 55%, new IL17 is 60%. Wow.
The new IL17 is 3 pts more Democratic than the current “rabbit on a skateboard” and doesn’t even look that egregious!
Mystery to me: why didn’t Dems put city of DeKalb in IL14 and give Manzullo parts of McHenry? Hultgren safer than I would’ve thought
By my count, only fairly safe GOP members in new IL map are Schock, Shimkus, Manzullo, Roskam, and possibly Hultgren
Central Illinois is less carved up than it was in the previous remap. All of Macon County is part of what would be a new 13th congressional district along with all or parts of DeWitt, McLean, Piatt, Champaign, Christian, Montgomery, Bond, Madison, Calhoun, Jersey and Greene counties. The area appears to be represented by U.S. Rep. John Shimkus, R-Collinsville.
Logan County is part of a new 18th District, which would be represented by U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock, R-Peoria.
Douglas, Moultrie, Coles, Fayette and Effingham counties are part of a new 15th District that would eat up most of the southeast quarter of the state. That area would be represented by U.S. Rep. Tim Johnson, R-Urbana.
The vote on the map came only hours after its public release—a plan that featured some variations from a map Democrats released a week ago, prompting complaints by Republicans.
“I think the public has been left on the short end of this process by not being able to comment on the changes,” said Rep. Mike Fortner of West Chicago, the ranking Republican on the House Redistricting Committee. Fortner would be lumped into a district with fellow Republican Rep. Tim Schmitz of Batavia.
But Barbara Flynn Currie, the House majority leader and top deputy of Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan, said, “I think this has been the most transparent, the most accountable, the most open redistricting process in the history of the state of Illinois.”
Rep. Roger Eddy, R-Hutsonville, responded, “This is not open and transparent. The final version of this map has had zero public hearings.”
*** UPDATE 7 *** From US Sen. Mark Kirk…
“The draft map is the unfortunate result of cynical partisans who want to override the decision of Illinois voters who elected fiscal conservatives to Congress. Its main purpose is to force Nancy Pelosi back into power.
“The map senselessly divides dozens of Illinois communities and denies our growing Hispanic community their rightful opportunity to be fully enfranchised with a second Congressman.
“This map was gerrymandered to ensure suburban voters will have little voice in Congress.”
*** UPDATE 8 *** From Republican Will County Board Chairman Jim Moustis…
“The proposed congressional map fails to keep Will County together with communities of interest and, more than likely, will result in unfair representation for our residents. Essentially, Chicago politicians will now serve areas in stark contrast to where they live and call home. No surprise this map was drawn by a partisan committee, behind closed doors, and without consideration for the 677,560 citizens living in this county. Those drawing this map should start over and take a cue from the way Will County has gone about the reapportionment process- openly, transparently and by a bipartisan committee.”
*** UPDATE 9 *** Congressman Bob Dold…
“Behind closed doors the Democrats in Springfield proposed a new Congressional map that was drawn without any input from Republicans or any consideration for the hours of testimony offered at public hearings this spring. This map was gerrymandered to ensure suburban voters will have little voice in Congress. This proposal appears to be little more than an attempt to undo the results of the election held just six months ago. My Republican colleagues and I will take whatever steps necessary to achieve a map that more fairly represents the people of Illinois – they deserve nothing less. The people of my district sent me to Washington to solve our nation’s serious challenges. In my first five months in office, we have put forward solutions to address those challenges but more work remains. I intend to continue to work tirelessly for my constituents and to be a Member of Congress until that work is done.”
*** UPDATE 10 *** Letter from the entire Republican congressional delegation…
“Under the cover of darkness, the Democrats in Springfield proposed a new Congressional map that was drawn without any input from Republicans or any consideration for the hours of testimony offered at public hearings this spring. We are very concerned that this proposal does not fairly represent the significant growth that has occurred in the Hispanic community. The proposed map carves up towns and communities with little regard to the values and beliefs of the people who live there.
“This proposal appears to be little more than an attempt to undo the results of the elections held just six months ago and we will take whatever steps necessary to achieve a map that more fairly represents the people of Illinois – they deserve nothing less.”
Jim Oberweis, Republican state central committeeman for the 14th District, said that as of Friday morning he was still trying to unerstand the Democratic strategy behind the map.
“At first glance it almost seems a bit less (gerrymandered) than in past years. …I’m assuming this is better.”
The new boundaries, Oberweis said, don’t “change anything from my viewpoint. We want to do the best we can to elect suburban Republicans.”
Will County would be split into six different congressional districts, instead of the current three, if a proposed redistricting map is approved this weekend by the General Assembly.
The new version of the map shows five Senate districts with majority Latino voting-age populations. But the percentage of voting-age Latinos in the least-majority district was increased in one district from barely 50 percent to 58 percent. Latino groups had been seeking districts with 60 percent to 65 percent voting-age populations.
The new version also shows 10 House Districts with at least a 50 percent majority of voting age Latinos — down one district from the proposal of last week. But the plan would create five districts with a Latino-age voting majority of 60 percent compared to only four with Latino voting-age concentrations that high.
The new version of the Senate map also would create eight districts with a majority black voting-age population instead of the seven they previously proposed. It would bring up one district from a 48.6 percent African American voting age population to 50.45 percent. The number of House districts with a black voting-age majority was unchanged at 16.
It was unclear whether the changes to the legislative map would satisfy Latino voting rights groups who had sought districts with larger voting-age populations or risk the prospect of a federal Voting Rights Act suit.
Republicans say their map complies with the Federal Voting Rights Act while trying to follow county and municipal borders wherever possible. “The maps … demonstrate that you cannot concern yourself with where incumbents live and not concern yourself with what Republican/Democrat numbers are … and draw a map that is constitutional.”
However, Dr. Leon Finney, co-chairman of the legislative redistricting committee for the African American Leadership Roundtable, said the Republican map “creates an illusion of fairness.” He said while the number of minority/majority districts is important, so is the way they are drawn. He said the plan reminds him of a proposal from the 1991 remap that “packed” districts with African-Americans and diluted their political voice. “Having gone through this in 1991, I am very painfully aware of the need to unpack those districts.”
* Remap roundup…
* Democrats roll out changes to their remap proposal
I get the feeling that the Tribune writer doesn’t know where downstate Congressmen live. This map puts Schocks Peoria base into a Democratic district with Rock Island/Moline. Tim Johnson is in east-central Illinois. Shimku’s hometown is split across three districts and I’m not sure which he lives in.
Outside of Cook and the Collars, this really is a great map. It will be very hard for Republicans to have a legitimate complaint about this map, as it is so much more contiguous than the mess that Speaker Hastert had an equal role in creating.
As for how the Democratic districts were drawn, why is it that Mike Quigley seems to be the only Chicagoan who had to make any sacrifices? He went from a nice north side district to equal parts suburban and DuPage disaster. Davis, Schakowsky and Gutierrez got to keep nearly identical districts.
And I know that you have to create a crab claw seat for Luis to wrap around a black district,but couldn’t you have just pushed them both out further west and kept Quigley from having to head south for the first time and wrap around both of them? Just seems like a lot of effort to protect two backbenchers whose careers are finally puttering to an end, with the result being that you are endangering an up and coming star.
On balance, this is a pretty good congressional map for downstate democrats. The Peorian, Aaron Schock, has a solid GOP area, but loses much of the Peoria region and instead represents Bloomington and much of western Illinois. Schilling has a lot of new unfriendly territory and may decide not to run.
The 16th is Don Manzullo (R), so Kinzinger would have to primary him. This map is pretty bad for Kinzinger. The 16th may be his best bet, but he loses his base of Bloomington, where he’s from, and Kankakee County, where he claims to live.
- Rahm's Parking Meter - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 9:25 am:
Biggert is in Quigley’s District, Walsh is in 14 now, with Hultgren, so what does Walsh do? 10, 8, 9 split all around the Arlington Heights, Buffalo Grove, Wheeling area, Naperville is pretty screwed up too.
tv stations should love this. several major downstate cities/regions are divided, meaning that candidates from two districts will be advertising on tv in those cities (rockford, peoria, bloomington-normal, champaign-urbana, metro east).
Whether that benefits those cities/regions in Congress is debatable–would you rather have one go-to-guy member of congress for your city, or two? If you have two, are they no longer go-to-guys?
Also, the fact that two current members now live in the same district, is not as significant in Congressional districts, because you don’t have to live in the district you represent. If you get drawn out of a district, you can still run in the old district, and if you have been around for a while, people will know you and they won’t hold the “he doesn’t live in the district” claim against you. Of course, it depends on how many new areas, where voters don’t know you, that are added to the old district.
===From a quick glance, I’d say Democrats have an excellent shot at 13 seats with this map.
I’d guess 12 pretty safely–other than the obvious seats, which districts do you see as Dem?
That’s a horrible map for Kinzinger. If he had to run against an incumbent he wanted Johnson, and Johnson’s district doesn’t make any sense for him to run in given the geography. Now he has to run against Schock, Manzullo, or Shimkus none of which are good match-ups for him. He could try and out right wing them, but they have lots of establishment support.
I think we can say goodbye to Bobby Schilling as well.
- Rahm's Parking Meter - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 9:31 am:
Schakowsky’s district looks less Democratic, but she can gain voters in Northbrook and Arlington Heights, pretty easy. Those areas she gained in Northbrook and the North Shore, have more Jewish voters, and she should be okay.
I’m in Shimkus’s current district (19th) and would in all likelihood end up in his 13th district if this map goes through. Can’t stand the guy (partly because he read from the Book of Genesis during a hearing on climate change: Shimkus indicated we need not worry about damage to the earth, because…um…God won’t allow it to happen).
Looks like will face a rough time with voters in Champaign County, which is fine with me, even if it means his successor would live far, far from my home in the Metro East.
I’d like to see some numbers first, but those seem pretty overly optimistic at first blush, particularly 10. 8 and 11 may lean.
=== and the 17th and 12th are Lean Dem===
12 is Costello, man.
Lots of country folk in 17, and it lost Decatur and some Dem Spfld precincts. It picked up elsewhere, though. Would really like to see some numbers there.
And I think Shimkus is in trouble. He may have to run against Johnson.
- Its gonna be a good day - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:01 am:
Any word on people who lost in 2010 trying to come back from their seats?
===Any word on people who lost in 2010 trying to come back from their seats? ===
Don’t know anything for sure, but Halvorson might be thinking about the 11th.
- Rahm's Parking Meter - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:08 am:
Bill Foster was going to try, that new 14th very tough for him. Gurnee, Antioch, Woodstock, northern Crystal Lake, Harvard, Geneva, Sycamore, Sugar Grove, Oswego, Yorkville, Plano, Newark… that looks way too tough for a Democrat to win, if he ran, he would face the winner of Hultgren and Walsh.
17 picks up Rockford though which I think should be enough for Dems. All of this depends on numbers though. 10 is probably pretty status quo to slightly more swing than it is now (though Republicans keep winning it).
Part of my assumptions are the legislative Dems tried to pick up enough to make 8 and 11 Democratic, but we’ll have to see the final numbers to be sure.
A Manzullo Kinzinger race will be fun to watch. Manzullo is really good at constituent services and Kinzinger is ideological. They probably are about the same on issues, but the emphasis will be fun to watch.
Yeah Bobby Schilling is done. Of course I said that about him before when he ran against Hare in IL-17, but Bobby Schilling is done. The pundits are the experts on everything and they always predict the right outcome.
Just so we have all of this in one place… let me know if anything needs correcting.
1: Rush
2: Jackson (Kinzinger now lives in this district as well but likely won’t run here)
3: Lipinski
4: Gutierrez
5: Quigley (Biggert now lives in this district as well but likely won’t run here)
6: Roskam
7: Davis
8: Open, would lean D
9: Schakowsky
10: Dold, but would lean D
11: Open, would lean D
12: Costello
13: Shimkus
14: Walsh and Hultgren (who wins this primary?)
15: Johnson
16: Manzullo
17: Schilling, but would lean D
18: Schock
Imagine this fun little scenario: Kinzinger decides to run statewide in 2014, so he stays where he is and runs a high-profile, rough and tumble kamikaze race against Congressman Jackson, Jr. Now, that would be something to watch. It would be stupid to do, but, man…
When I click on the link, all I get is the globe - no district map?!? Anyway, GOP primary voters creted this mess for them: Brady, Dold, Walsh, etc. Mediocrity.
My house, by half a block, stays in the 16th, so I’m probably stuck with Manzullo. I wonder who runs in the 17th. Gauldrapp, Freeport mayor and 2010 candidate for the 16th, would probably do well in this district. Who are the popular D’s in Rock Island or Peoria who might run?
If you look up gerrymandering on wikipedia, one of the examples shown is for the Illinois 4th Congressional district.
To quote the article: “The earmuff shape of Illinois’s 4th congressional district packs two Hispanic areas while remaining contiguous by narrowly tracing Interstate 294.”
Glad to see they kept that same basic shape so we can keep our illustrious spot on their list of the most egregious examples of gerrymandering.
I do understand the long stretches to keep groups together, but using part of an interstate to connect two such areas can in no way be considered contiguous.
Would Manzullo retire? I haven’t gotten the impression he’s been a mover-and-shaker in the House.
Walsh is a clown. I assume the GOP wants him gone. It’s nice to have his vote, but it’s better to have someone who is more of a team player and just, y’know, more competent. In a Hultgren vs. Walsh competition, I assume the establishment would prefer Hultgren. How much respect do rank-and-file Republicans have for party leadership? That’s a different question.
- urbana democrat - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:55 am:
Johnson is in the new 15th - he lives in one of the subdivisions in northeast Urbana that are still in the 15th.
As for the rest of his district, I’d say he’s now vulnerable to a primary challenge from the right.
I’d like to see the numbers for Lipinski’s district. It looks like he’s gained a lot of heavy GOP areas from Biggert in Palos, Orland, Lemont, and Homer. Can the GOP find an Irish candidate to give him a run for his money? Maybe a cop or fire fighter from the 19th ward or someone with money?
I hoped that the 4th District would have a better shape, something more compact. They should have considered the 4th & 7th Districts as a large area and divided that area into an eastern half and western half. Rep. Davis would run in the western district, which would be mostly Blacks. Rep. Guitierrez would run in the eastern district, which would include Mexican and Puerto Rican neighborhoods.
The 8th is interesting. Raja already has his website up, but Duckworth ran a good campaign over similar turf. If Duckworth wants it, I suspect she’d be favored. Does Raja have ties to 10?
Democrats will easily win the 17th.
Shimkus will have the toughest race in his career if he runs in the 13th. He can get away with the far right wing crazy comments in rural Republican parts of his district but that won’t play so well in Champaign, Decatur and the Democratic parts of Springfield . 13 is not an easy district for a guy who has spent most of his time in the rural parts of his old district.
If Republicans are smart they’ll run Johnson in the 13th and Shimkus in the 15th. Johnson is moderate enough to win a marginal district and Shimkus is more popular with the small town talk radio crowd.
===Imagine this fun little scenario: Kinzinger decides to run statewide in 2014, so he stays where he is and runs a high-profile, rough and tumble kamikaze race against Congressman Jackson, Jr. Now, that would be something to watch. It would be stupid to do, but, man…
That’s a popcorn race. As in pop some, grab a beer and just enjoy the schadenfreude for everyone involved.
The Cook report is dumb–I’d knock 7 points off most of those districts (and that’s just sort of a random number that I’m not tied to in any way) to at least have some realistic idea of what the vote will be.
Dupage dan, the best part of that article is the writer admitting he voted for jack ryan which makes him the only reporter in dc besides george will who supported Jack! Ryan.
Shimkus may be susceptible to a Dem in the 13th. Decatur, Champaign-Urbana, a low-income section of Bloomington and Illinois State university area of Normal are all in the new 13th. Johnson’s shtick is getting tiresome but he has a better chance in the 13th than in the more rural 15th. And Shimkus’ positions may play better in the 15th
2012 is the year Dems will run up big totals. 1. Obama will be on the ticket. 2. GOP is alienating people something fierce. 3. Republicans haven’t established relations in their new districts.
And there’s a civil war brewing in the GOP between Tea Party puritans and establishment Republicans.
–But Barbara Flynn Currie, the House majority leader and top deputy of Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan, said, “I think this has been the most transparent, the most accountable, the most open redistricting process in the history of the state of Illinois.”–
Transparent?!? I’m embarrased for BFC to have to make such a ridiculous statement… it’s so belittling. How hard would it be to provide info & data on how each district was drawn by giving some geo & demo breakdown for each… justify them in a clear and concise manner so that the public can comprehend the result of the remap process. Or, just say… it was purely partisan and tell the public to go spit.
Sorry, I forgot… that would be asking too much of Springfield.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 1:01 pm:
1. Shimkus is toast in 2012, but the trick will be holding on to it.
Four public universities for a guy whose been leading the charge for “clean” coal?
College-age turnout doubles in Presidential years.
Of course, the big question is who is the Democrat who runs against him?
2. The new 14th appears drawn for a Democrat like Jack Franks. 12 years in the General Assembly and he’s STILL never voted for a tax or fee increase. I don’t think there are any Republicans who can match that.
PLUS, he can campaign against the Paul Ryan Medicare Plan claiming its a backdoor tax increase on seniors, contrasting his senior prescription drug program that negotiates prices for seniors vs. the GOP’s prescription drug program that lines the pockets of drug companies…
Kirk’s real message: “thank god lisa didn’t run for senate and I won. See you in 5 years. “
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 1:13 pm:
Unless I’m mistaken, Speaker Hastert and Cong. Lipinski cut a deal ten years ago to pass a gerrymandered, incumbent protection map that protected Cong. Mark Kirk after his narrow, 51% win in 2000.
Did Mark Kirk or the Republicans submit a map that can be publicly examined and challenged?
How is this map is any worse for suburbanites than the last map, the one drawn by Dennis Hastert?
What Kirk probably means is that the map is bad for suburban Republicans. Oh, well. That’s the way redistricting works.
I do see room for complaining that a second majority Latino district could have been created and wasn’t. Instead Latinos will help put Dems over the top in IL-03, IL-05, IL-08, IL-10, IL-11 and IL-17.
Wouldn’t it be a hoot if there was a JJJ/Halvorson primary for IL-2. Also, how is JJJ going to play down in the 55/45 parts of Will? He’s ripe for a primary after his issues over the past 2 years.
–“The draft map is the unfortunate result of cynical partisans who want to override the decision of Illinois voters who elected fiscal conservatives to Congress. Its main purpose is to force Nancy Pelosi back into power.”–
Boy, that Madigan is a powerful guy. Who knew that you could redraw the Illinois Congressional map and overcome a 48-seat GOP advantage in the House?
With statements like that, I would be careful about calling others cynical.
Mark Kirk is calling other politicians cynical? That’s a good one. This is the so-called “moderate” Republican that voted yesterday for the tea party plan to eliminate the Medicare program for senior citizens.
Kirk is off to a great start as a bloviator. He couldn’t tell the truth about his own history during the campaign….
I generally like the looks of this map for Downstate but if the Dems really want to make the 13th competitive I think they left some votes on the table in north Normal around Fairview Park which these days has a mix of low-income folks and college students around Lincoln College and Heartland Community College. Historically I also know LeRoy was more Democratic than the rest of McLean County but maybe it’s not any more so that’s why it got left out?
I agree with someone else who said Johnson is better suited to the 13th and Shimkus better suited to the 15th. Johnson did once upon a time represent Bloomington-Normal when he first ran for Congress, he previously represented parts of Macon County in the old map and he has experience representing college campuses and has at least one issue to use to appeal to college folks - ending the wars. As a University of Illinois alum, I shudder at the idea of a man like Shimkus who is so anti-education and anti-science representing my alma mater, one of the top scientific research universities in the country, in Congress.
One last thing — any chance John Sullivan runs in the new 18th. I know it would be tough sledding but he did put himself out there for the old Lane Evans seat.
I know it’s seven years out of date but it would be instructive to look at the Kerry / Bush presidential numbers from 04, map them onto these rejiggered boundaries. Probably gives a more realistic sense of both parties’ strengths than the 2008 data.
The GOP’s so-called “fair map” was clearly just a cynical stunt. Obviously not what the GOP would push if they were in control and had the power to draw the map they really want.
A really dumb strategy. Any judge is going to see right through it and say it certainly looks like a blatant attempt to manufacture evidence in anticipation of litigation. Some Republicans are so clueless they’ve pretty much already admitted exactly that.
Sad the GOP has lawyers willing to advance this suit. They may not be lawyers for long if they go through with it.
So which is it, behind closed doors, or under the cover of darkness? Or maybe it was drawn in a dark room with the door closed? Or under the cover of a closed door at night?
Somebody should send some tissues to the state GOP.
==Raja need not live in the district to run there, but I don’t see him running for 10. Eight is a much better fit. ==
Agreed. Even if he lives in the part of Hoffman that will soon be in the 6th, the 8th looks good for him. Much more compact of a district, with a higher Indo-Pak and Latino population that what the 8th currently is. Plus, it’s part of the state he did very well in the 2010 primaries, if I remember correctly, so that definitely seems the way for him to go.
- hisgirlfriday -
One last thing — any chance John Sullivan runs in the new 18th. I know it would be tough sledding but he did put himself out there for the old Lane Evans seat.
—-
You’re right that 13 could have been more Democratic. Johnson could do worse.
Sullivan is an interesting idea. He represents a large portion of the new 18 that isn’t part of Schock’s current district. It will be an Obama year and Schock has never had a Democratic opponent as formidable as Sullivan for his Congressional seat. Schock v. Sullivan could be another Dem pickup.
===Schock v. Sullivan could be another Dem pickup. ===
You’re dreaming. That’s one GOP district, bub.
—-
Ok, I’m dreaming, but it’s a district that includes Sullivan’s hometown and base, but doesn’t include most of Peoria. I’d say 2012 is the year to go for it.
==Ok, I’m dreaming, but it’s a district that includes Sullivan’s hometown and base, but doesn’t include most of Peoria. I’d say 2012 is the year to go for it.
Sometimes you have to take what you get–and you got a lot.
My Congressman, Shimkus, has been drawn out of my new district (15).This is a great day! I may continue to have a Republican Rep in the future but at least they wont be as far right as Shimkus. Hopefully he doesnt run in the 15th and stays closer to home.
All right, all right, just talking out loud about my IL-18 pipe dream.
Then what about the ostensibly swing Dem Central Illinois district they drew here? Who are possible Dems to run in this new 13th? Would Mike Frerichs take a shot at this or is he content to stay in the Senate?
==Ok, I’m dreaming, but it’s a district that includes Sullivan’s hometown and base, but doesn’t include most of Peoria. I’d say 2012 is the year to go for it.==
The GOP would love for the Democrats to throw all they have at that district and more. Because it’d be throwing money down the toilet. Just because it doesn’t include Peoria doesn’t mean it’d be a tough district for Schock. In Sangamon County, for instance, the biggest Democrat areas are cut off into the 13th, and leave the rest, largley Republican, in the 18th.
The 11th is perfect for Cedra Crenshaw. It only leans Dem. It’s a much fairer race than her State Senate Campaign. Without being so grossly out-spent, she may have a shot. Plus she already has national name recognition.
Crickets from the schwiebert, boland and hare camp….it would be nice to eliminate those jerks in the primary! MIKEY JACOBS IN A LANDSLIDEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I’m sure the TPI (Tea Party Illinois) is overjoyed at Senator Kirk’s comments about Latino representation! Or, for that matter, the press release that accompanied the Republicon proposal as they criticized the lack of superduper majority latino legislative districts.
Everybody in the Illinois Senate has to run in 2012, because it’s a new map.
State senators will get two cycles between 2014 and 2020 where they won’t have to run for re-election b/c they are in the middle of a four-year term.
I think there’s emerging consensus that Democrats do better running in presidential cycles and Republicans do better in non-presidential cycles.
So, I expect Dems that win in 2012 will draw challengers who are state senators in 2014. The Democratic state senators will be more aggressive in the 2016 cycle.
After the 2010 ltgov debacle, I have a much lower opinion of Illinois legislators having the skills necessary to run without someone else providing the muscle. Halvorson’s crash-and-burn is another piece of evidence that people don’t become better campaigners for having spent time in Springfield.
But that’s why we hold elections to test all these theories.
One of the things duplicitous about Kirk’s remarks is that if the Dems did create a second Latino district by connecting Humboldt Park, Melrose Park, Stone Park, Northlake, and Elgin, the Republicans would be whining up a storm about the gerrymandering required.
Combining Pilsen, Cicero, Berwyn and Latino parts of IL-03 into one district is no great trick. But where’s the second Latino district come from Senator Kirk? You want to connect Aurora, Elgin and Rockford?
Sorry to be a pain…and I know how to use the interwebtubes and Google Earth…but it appears that Schock has been mapped into 17 possibly. Does anyone have an accurate address? I used his state campaign filing and it seems to show 17.
I am fascinated to see how the 14th plays out. On one hand, Walsh is obviously nuts and the establishment GOP would probably like to throw him over and keep Hultgren.
On the other hand, the Republican base is obviously nuts and could give a crap about what the establishment GOP wants and might just vote for Walsh anyway just like they did in 2010.
How popular is Hultgren in his district? It seems like Walsh finds a way to get his name in the national press constantly even if it’s not often a positive way. But Hultgren is just totally nonexistent when it comes to media coverage of the Illinois delegation.
Schock lives in the new 18th. His base is the Peoria media market, not necessarily the south side of the city of Peoria. Look a the map. People keep writing here that a “good part of his Peoria base is gone,” but it’s just the most democrat part and a overall it’s a small part of Peoria County. Peoria COUNTY, Tazewell, Woodford, Marshall, Logan is his base. The rest is mostly pure Republican. McLean County is Peoria TV market and they’ve heard all his ads and TV news for ten years now. Might be the most republican district in this map, if not the second most. Sullivan is unknown in Sangamon, and all of the Peoria media market. The part of the this new 18th district that Sullivan now represents is relatively lightly populated.
Did the GOP run out of cash to hire more press release writers? Way to copy n paste there fellas.
If Dold were serious about running in the newly open 10th he’d move out of his parents’ house. Considering how much money he lost on his last house maybe he’s a bit gun shy on being a homeowner again.
Atkinson should keep his pledge and run against Lipinski in CD-3. It was the whole justification of his candidacy. Is Duckworth running in CD-8?? Must be more than a couple of good candidates for CD-10, Seals and Hamons? Foster has a strong base in Aurora and well known around Naperville - absolutely good fit for newly drawn CD-11. Also a couple strong names are emerging in CD-17.
- DuPage Dem - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 8:07 am:
From a quick glance, I’d say Democrats have an excellent shot at 13 seats with this map.
The 6th is interesting. I didn’t think it was going to look anything like that.
Also, nice to see Triple J finally gets to actually represent Peotone.
- Will - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 8:36 am:
I get the feeling that the Tribune writer doesn’t know where downstate Congressmen live. This map puts Schocks Peoria base into a Democratic district with Rock Island/Moline. Tim Johnson is in east-central Illinois. Shimku’s hometown is split across three districts and I’m not sure which he lives in.
- R.P. McMurphy - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 8:41 am:
Outside of Cook and the Collars, this really is a great map. It will be very hard for Republicans to have a legitimate complaint about this map, as it is so much more contiguous than the mess that Speaker Hastert had an equal role in creating.
As for how the Democratic districts were drawn, why is it that Mike Quigley seems to be the only Chicagoan who had to make any sacrifices? He went from a nice north side district to equal parts suburban and DuPage disaster. Davis, Schakowsky and Gutierrez got to keep nearly identical districts.
And I know that you have to create a crab claw seat for Luis to wrap around a black district,but couldn’t you have just pushed them both out further west and kept Quigley from having to head south for the first time and wrap around both of them? Just seems like a lot of effort to protect two backbenchers whose careers are finally puttering to an end, with the result being that you are endangering an up and coming star.
- Rich Miller - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 8:45 am:
===Davis, Schakowsky and Gutierrez got to keep nearly identical districts. ===
Schakowsky’s district is significantly less Democratic.
- Louis Howe - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 8:45 am:
On balance, this is a pretty good congressional map for downstate democrats. The Peorian, Aaron Schock, has a solid GOP area, but loses much of the Peoria region and instead represents Bloomington and much of western Illinois. Schilling has a lot of new unfriendly territory and may decide not to run.
- Rich Miller - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 8:47 am:
===Shimku’s hometown is split across three districts and I’m not sure which he lives in.===
Try the Google Earth program. Shimkus is in 13.
- R.P. McMurphy - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 8:50 am:
Jan trades some GOP area she didn’t want for other GOP area she doesn’t want. Her whole lakefront stays the same.
- MrJM - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 8:51 am:
Someone should inform them that the Internet is not something that you just dump something on. It’s not a big truck.
– MrJM
- Dirt Digger - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 8:54 am:
Quigley got almost all of Bucktown and Wicker Park, along with the eastern edge of Logan Square. Fair enough.
- K3_Spfld_Chi - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 9:03 am:
Where does Kinzinger run? Where does Atkinson run?
- franklin - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 9:08 am:
I’m sure kinsinger runs in the new 16th, that’s mostly all his district
- k3 - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 9:21 am:
The 16th is Don Manzullo (R), so Kinzinger would have to primary him. This map is pretty bad for Kinzinger. The 16th may be his best bet, but he loses his base of Bloomington, where he’s from, and Kankakee County, where he claims to live.
- Rahm's Parking Meter - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 9:25 am:
Biggert is in Quigley’s District, Walsh is in 14 now, with Hultgren, so what does Walsh do? 10, 8, 9 split all around the Arlington Heights, Buffalo Grove, Wheeling area, Naperville is pretty screwed up too.
- winco - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 9:26 am:
tv stations should love this. several major downstate cities/regions are divided, meaning that candidates from two districts will be advertising on tv in those cities (rockford, peoria, bloomington-normal, champaign-urbana, metro east).
Whether that benefits those cities/regions in Congress is debatable–would you rather have one go-to-guy member of congress for your city, or two? If you have two, are they no longer go-to-guys?
Also, the fact that two current members now live in the same district, is not as significant in Congressional districts, because you don’t have to live in the district you represent. If you get drawn out of a district, you can still run in the old district, and if you have been around for a while, people will know you and they won’t hold the “he doesn’t live in the district” claim against you. Of course, it depends on how many new areas, where voters don’t know you, that are added to the old district.
- ArchPundit - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 9:30 am:
===From a quick glance, I’d say Democrats have an excellent shot at 13 seats with this map.
I’d guess 12 pretty safely–other than the obvious seats, which districts do you see as Dem?
That’s a horrible map for Kinzinger. If he had to run against an incumbent he wanted Johnson, and Johnson’s district doesn’t make any sense for him to run in given the geography. Now he has to run against Schock, Manzullo, or Shimkus none of which are good match-ups for him. He could try and out right wing them, but they have lots of establishment support.
I think we can say goodbye to Bobby Schilling as well.
- Rahm's Parking Meter - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 9:31 am:
Schakowsky’s district looks less Democratic, but she can gain voters in Northbrook and Arlington Heights, pretty easy. Those areas she gained in Northbrook and the North Shore, have more Jewish voters, and she should be okay.
- Anonymous - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 9:35 am:
I’m in Shimkus’s current district (19th) and would in all likelihood end up in his 13th district if this map goes through. Can’t stand the guy (partly because he read from the Book of Genesis during a hearing on climate change: Shimkus indicated we need not worry about damage to the earth, because…um…God won’t allow it to happen).
Looks like will face a rough time with voters in Champaign County, which is fine with me, even if it means his successor would live far, far from my home in the Metro East.
- DuPage Dem - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 9:54 am:
Arch,
This is my take…
The Chicago seats are Safe Dem so that’s 7; The 8th, 10th, and 11th are Likely Dem; and the 17th and 12th are Lean Dem.
Costello will win the 12th, but based on the composition of the district I rate it as Lean.
I think the 13th could also be rated Tossup/Lean Dem. It takes in Champaign, Bloomington/Normal, Decatur, Springfield, and Macoupin.
13 is hardly guranteed, but I think it is definitely possible.
- DuPage Dem - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 9:55 am:
Excellent was probably the wrong word to use.
- Rich Miller - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:01 am:
===The 8th, 10th, and 11th are Likely Dem;===
I’d like to see some numbers first, but those seem pretty overly optimistic at first blush, particularly 10. 8 and 11 may lean.
=== and the 17th and 12th are Lean Dem===
12 is Costello, man.
Lots of country folk in 17, and it lost Decatur and some Dem Spfld precincts. It picked up elsewhere, though. Would really like to see some numbers there.
And I think Shimkus is in trouble. He may have to run against Johnson.
- Its gonna be a good day - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:01 am:
Any word on people who lost in 2010 trying to come back from their seats?
- FairMap - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:05 am:
Bob Schilling was having political problems longl before the new map was unvield, but clearly the new 17th puts nails in the coffin.
- Rich Miller - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:06 am:
===Any word on people who lost in 2010 trying to come back from their seats? ===
Don’t know anything for sure, but Halvorson might be thinking about the 11th.
- Rahm's Parking Meter - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:08 am:
Bill Foster was going to try, that new 14th very tough for him. Gurnee, Antioch, Woodstock, northern Crystal Lake, Harvard, Geneva, Sycamore, Sugar Grove, Oswego, Yorkville, Plano, Newark… that looks way too tough for a Democrat to win, if he ran, he would face the winner of Hultgren and Walsh.
- DuPage Dem - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:10 am:
No doubt Costello will win the 12th, I’m saying that if you take away Costello it’s not a Safe seat.
- ArchPundit - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:11 am:
17 picks up Rockford though which I think should be enough for Dems. All of this depends on numbers though. 10 is probably pretty status quo to slightly more swing than it is now (though Republicans keep winning it).
Part of my assumptions are the legislative Dems tried to pick up enough to make 8 and 11 Democratic, but we’ll have to see the final numbers to be sure.
A Manzullo Kinzinger race will be fun to watch. Manzullo is really good at constituent services and Kinzinger is ideological. They probably are about the same on issues, but the emphasis will be fun to watch.
- DuPage Dem - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:16 am:
It’d be interesting if Foster moved to Aurora or Naperville to set up a Foster/Atkinson primary. Lots of money between the two.
- FanoMike Jacobs - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:19 am:
Yeah Bobby Schilling is done. Of course I said that about him before when he ran against Hare in IL-17, but Bobby Schilling is done. The pundits are the experts on everything and they always predict the right outcome.
- ArchPundit - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:22 am:
===The pundits are the experts on everything and they always predict the right outcome.
I just had a commenter point out me saying Schilling had no chance in 2010. Fair enough.
- wordslinger - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:22 am:
–Don’t know anything for sure, but Halvorson might be thinking about the 11th. –
She may not have time after the movie rights are sold for her upcoming bestseller, “Breaking Through: The Obama Years.”
- anon - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:25 am:
Just so we have all of this in one place… let me know if anything needs correcting.
1: Rush
2: Jackson (Kinzinger now lives in this district as well but likely won’t run here)
3: Lipinski
4: Gutierrez
5: Quigley (Biggert now lives in this district as well but likely won’t run here)
6: Roskam
7: Davis
8: Open, would lean D
9: Schakowsky
10: Dold, but would lean D
11: Open, would lean D
12: Costello
13: Shimkus
14: Walsh and Hultgren (who wins this primary?)
15: Johnson
16: Manzullo
17: Schilling, but would lean D
18: Schock
- Shore - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:25 am:
jan’s district is connected to a part of the city by a golf course and a harbor. cute.
- Rahm's Parking Meter - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:27 am:
Shore, its that way now already for her.
- Rich Miller - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:32 am:
Imagine this fun little scenario: Kinzinger decides to run statewide in 2014, so he stays where he is and runs a high-profile, rough and tumble kamikaze race against Congressman Jackson, Jr. Now, that would be something to watch. It would be stupid to do, but, man…
- Ace Matson - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:34 am:
When I click on the link, all I get is the globe - no district map?!? Anyway, GOP primary voters creted this mess for them: Brady, Dold, Walsh, etc. Mediocrity.
- Rich Miller - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:35 am:
It doesn’t zoom in? Weird. Works for everybody else.
- mattman - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:37 am:
My house, by half a block, stays in the 16th, so I’m probably stuck with Manzullo. I wonder who runs in the 17th. Gauldrapp, Freeport mayor and 2010 candidate for the 16th, would probably do well in this district. Who are the popular D’s in Rock Island or Peoria who might run?
- cynical - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:37 am:
If you look up gerrymandering on wikipedia, one of the examples shown is for the Illinois 4th Congressional district.
To quote the article: “The earmuff shape of Illinois’s 4th congressional district packs two Hispanic areas while remaining contiguous by narrowly tracing Interstate 294.”
Glad to see they kept that same basic shape so we can keep our illustrious spot on their list of the most egregious examples of gerrymandering.
I do understand the long stretches to keep groups together, but using part of an interstate to connect two such areas can in no way be considered contiguous.
- Downstate - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:38 am:
Rich,
Are you saying Shimkus and Johnson are now in the same district? That means the new 15th is open?
- Rich Miller - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:39 am:
===Are you saying Shimkus and Johnson are now in the same district? ===
No. Congressional candidates don’t have to live in their districts.
- Carl Nyberg - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:40 am:
So Raja was connected enough to know about the creation of this new Eighth CD.
anon (10:25), thanks for the info.
- Carl Nyberg - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:46 am:
Would Manzullo retire? I haven’t gotten the impression he’s been a mover-and-shaker in the House.
Walsh is a clown. I assume the GOP wants him gone. It’s nice to have his vote, but it’s better to have someone who is more of a team player and just, y’know, more competent. In a Hultgren vs. Walsh competition, I assume the establishment would prefer Hultgren. How much respect do rank-and-file Republicans have for party leadership? That’s a different question.
- urbana democrat - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:55 am:
Johnson is in the new 15th - he lives in one of the subdivisions in northeast Urbana that are still in the 15th.
As for the rest of his district, I’d say he’s now vulnerable to a primary challenge from the right.
- Southwest Cook - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:59 am:
I’d like to see the numbers for Lipinski’s district. It looks like he’s gained a lot of heavy GOP areas from Biggert in Palos, Orland, Lemont, and Homer. Can the GOP find an Irish candidate to give him a run for his money? Maybe a cop or fire fighter from the 19th ward or someone with money?
- Apple - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:59 am:
“Kinzinger decides to run statewide in 2014..”
That’s about as likely as Alexi making a come back.
- TJ - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 11:09 am:
Yikes, so Champaign-Urbana’s no longer in Johnson’s district?
- Conservative Veteran - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 11:10 am:
I hoped that the 4th District would have a better shape, something more compact. They should have considered the 4th & 7th Districts as a large area and divided that area into an eastern half and western half. Rep. Davis would run in the western district, which would be mostly Blacks. Rep. Guitierrez would run in the eastern district, which would include Mexican and Puerto Rican neighborhoods.
- Jasper - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 11:17 am:
The 8th is interesting. Raja already has his website up, but Duckworth ran a good campaign over similar turf. If Duckworth wants it, I suspect she’d be favored. Does Raja have ties to 10?
- TJ - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 11:27 am:
Where in Hoffman Estates does Raja live? In the 6ht or the 8th?
- Will - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 11:32 am:
Democrats will easily win the 17th.
Shimkus will have the toughest race in his career if he runs in the 13th. He can get away with the far right wing crazy comments in rural Republican parts of his district but that won’t play so well in Champaign, Decatur and the Democratic parts of Springfield . 13 is not an easy district for a guy who has spent most of his time in the rural parts of his old district.
If Republicans are smart they’ll run Johnson in the 13th and Shimkus in the 15th. Johnson is moderate enough to win a marginal district and Shimkus is more popular with the small town talk radio crowd.
- Shore - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 11:36 am:
raja has no ties to 10 and there’s no major indian population there.
- TJ - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 11:38 am:
==raja has no ties to 10 and there’s no major indian population there. ==
Uh, it doesn’t matter, as he no longer lives in what would be the 10th District. Raja lives in Hoffman Estates.
- 47th Ward - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 11:48 am:
Shimkus pledged to limit his terms, but then reneged, like a lot of other GOPers. Thankfully this map will help him live up to his promise.
- ArchPundit - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 11:56 am:
===Imagine this fun little scenario: Kinzinger decides to run statewide in 2014, so he stays where he is and runs a high-profile, rough and tumble kamikaze race against Congressman Jackson, Jr. Now, that would be something to watch. It would be stupid to do, but, man…
That’s a popcorn race. As in pop some, grab a beer and just enjoy the schadenfreude for everyone involved.
The Cook report is dumb–I’d knock 7 points off most of those districts (and that’s just sort of a random number that I’m not tied to in any way) to at least have some realistic idea of what the vote will be.
- bmcosti - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 11:56 am:
“*** UPDATE 6 *** I really don’t like the idea of using Obama numbers alone.”
I would love to see the D/R numbers based on the Brady-Quinn race.
- ArchPundit - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 12:04 pm:
–The Cook report is dumb
oops sorry, didn’t realize it was just a tweet. Good first thoughts from him, but the Obama numbers are higher than typical dem performance.
- DuPage Dem - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 12:17 pm:
This should help Walsh in a primary:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/gop-rep-walsh-obama-was-elected-because-he-is-a-black-man-who-is-articulate/2011/03/03/AGDeFjCH_blog.html
- Todd - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 12:24 pm:
Looks like the big loser in all the maps is Larry Walsh in Will county. Itmhas been taken over by the Cook County dems
- Brian - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 12:29 pm:
Raja need not live in the district to run there, but I don’t see him running for 10. Eight is a much better fit.
- Shore - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 12:33 pm:
Dupage dan, the best part of that article is the writer admitting he voted for jack ryan which makes him the only reporter in dc besides george will who supported Jack! Ryan.
- mr. whipple - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 12:33 pm:
Shimkus may be susceptible to a Dem in the 13th. Decatur, Champaign-Urbana, a low-income section of Bloomington and Illinois State university area of Normal are all in the new 13th. Johnson’s shtick is getting tiresome but he has a better chance in the 13th than in the more rural 15th. And Shimkus’ positions may play better in the 15th
- Anonym - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 12:35 pm:
What about Rep. Franks in the new 14th? He’s certainly strong in the northern part of it and has crossover appeal.
- Carl Nyberg - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 12:43 pm:
2012 is the year Dems will run up big totals. 1. Obama will be on the ticket. 2. GOP is alienating people something fierce. 3. Republicans haven’t established relations in their new districts.
And there’s a civil war brewing in the GOP between Tea Party puritans and establishment Republicans.
- Nero - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 12:57 pm:
–But Barbara Flynn Currie, the House majority leader and top deputy of Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan, said, “I think this has been the most transparent, the most accountable, the most open redistricting process in the history of the state of Illinois.”–
Transparent?!? I’m embarrased for BFC to have to make such a ridiculous statement… it’s so belittling. How hard would it be to provide info & data on how each district was drawn by giving some geo & demo breakdown for each… justify them in a clear and concise manner so that the public can comprehend the result of the remap process. Or, just say… it was purely partisan and tell the public to go spit.
Sorry, I forgot… that would be asking too much of Springfield.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 1:01 pm:
1. Shimkus is toast in 2012, but the trick will be holding on to it.
Four public universities for a guy whose been leading the charge for “clean” coal?
College-age turnout doubles in Presidential years.
Of course, the big question is who is the Democrat who runs against him?
2. The new 14th appears drawn for a Democrat like Jack Franks. 12 years in the General Assembly and he’s STILL never voted for a tax or fee increase. I don’t think there are any Republicans who can match that.
PLUS, he can campaign against the Paul Ryan Medicare Plan claiming its a backdoor tax increase on seniors, contrasting his senior prescription drug program that negotiates prices for seniors vs. the GOP’s prescription drug program that lines the pockets of drug companies…
fun, Fun, FUN!!!
- 47th Ward - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 1:01 pm:
===and denies our growing Hispanic community their rightful opportunity to be fully enfranchised with a second Congressman===
Crocodile tears from Senator Kirk. If he cares so much about Hispanics, why won’t he support the DREAM Act?
- Shore - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 1:05 pm:
Kirk’s real message: “thank god lisa didn’t run for senate and I won. See you in 5 years. “
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 1:13 pm:
Unless I’m mistaken, Speaker Hastert and Cong. Lipinski cut a deal ten years ago to pass a gerrymandered, incumbent protection map that protected Cong. Mark Kirk after his narrow, 51% win in 2000.
Rich or someone, please correct me if I’m wrong.
Otherwise: HIPPO-crite.
- Carl Nyberg - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 1:16 pm:
Did Mark Kirk or the Republicans submit a map that can be publicly examined and challenged?
How is this map is any worse for suburbanites than the last map, the one drawn by Dennis Hastert?
What Kirk probably means is that the map is bad for suburban Republicans. Oh, well. That’s the way redistricting works.
I do see room for complaining that a second majority Latino district could have been created and wasn’t. Instead Latinos will help put Dems over the top in IL-03, IL-05, IL-08, IL-10, IL-11 and IL-17.
- OneMan - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 1:34 pm:
Carl,
It worse because it’s a Dem map… Duh..
- Kyle Hillman - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 1:42 pm:
So Bobby Rush will represent the Eastside of New Lenox.
Here is a preview of his constituency.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2_WpekV-tE
…Hilarious!
- Anonymous - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 1:48 pm:
Wouldn’t it be a hoot if there was a JJJ/Halvorson primary for IL-2. Also, how is JJJ going to play down in the 55/45 parts of Will? He’s ripe for a primary after his issues over the past 2 years.
- wordslinger - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 1:48 pm:
–“The draft map is the unfortunate result of cynical partisans who want to override the decision of Illinois voters who elected fiscal conservatives to Congress. Its main purpose is to force Nancy Pelosi back into power.”–
Boy, that Madigan is a powerful guy. Who knew that you could redraw the Illinois Congressional map and overcome a 48-seat GOP advantage in the House?
With statements like that, I would be careful about calling others cynical.
- DuPage Dave - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 1:49 pm:
Mark Kirk is calling other politicians cynical? That’s a good one. This is the so-called “moderate” Republican that voted yesterday for the tea party plan to eliminate the Medicare program for senior citizens.
Kirk is off to a great start as a bloviator. He couldn’t tell the truth about his own history during the campaign….
- hisgirlfriday - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 1:52 pm:
I generally like the looks of this map for Downstate but if the Dems really want to make the 13th competitive I think they left some votes on the table in north Normal around Fairview Park which these days has a mix of low-income folks and college students around Lincoln College and Heartland Community College. Historically I also know LeRoy was more Democratic than the rest of McLean County but maybe it’s not any more so that’s why it got left out?
I agree with someone else who said Johnson is better suited to the 13th and Shimkus better suited to the 15th. Johnson did once upon a time represent Bloomington-Normal when he first ran for Congress, he previously represented parts of Macon County in the old map and he has experience representing college campuses and has at least one issue to use to appeal to college folks - ending the wars. As a University of Illinois alum, I shudder at the idea of a man like Shimkus who is so anti-education and anti-science representing my alma mater, one of the top scientific research universities in the country, in Congress.
One last thing — any chance John Sullivan runs in the new 18th. I know it would be tough sledding but he did put himself out there for the old Lane Evans seat.
- ZC - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 1:55 pm:
I know it’s seven years out of date but it would be instructive to look at the Kerry / Bush presidential numbers from 04, map them onto these rejiggered boundaries. Probably gives a more realistic sense of both parties’ strengths than the 2008 data.
- just sayin' - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 2:04 pm:
The GOP’s so-called “fair map” was clearly just a cynical stunt. Obviously not what the GOP would push if they were in control and had the power to draw the map they really want.
A really dumb strategy. Any judge is going to see right through it and say it certainly looks like a blatant attempt to manufacture evidence in anticipation of litigation. Some Republicans are so clueless they’ve pretty much already admitted exactly that.
Sad the GOP has lawyers willing to advance this suit. They may not be lawyers for long if they go through with it.
- 47th Ward - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 2:07 pm:
So which is it, behind closed doors, or under the cover of darkness? Or maybe it was drawn in a dark room with the door closed? Or under the cover of a closed door at night?
Somebody should send some tissues to the state GOP.
- wordslinger - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 2:13 pm:
–under the cover of darkness–
Awfully sporting of them. Just imagine the beating they would have dished out to the GOP if they’d had the lights on!
- R.P. McMurphy - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 2:22 pm:
Thank goodness that the Republican caucus is here to worry about Hispanic representation.
That was a joke.
- TJ - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 2:41 pm:
==Raja need not live in the district to run there, but I don’t see him running for 10. Eight is a much better fit. ==
Agreed. Even if he lives in the part of Hoffman that will soon be in the 6th, the 8th looks good for him. Much more compact of a district, with a higher Indo-Pak and Latino population that what the 8th currently is. Plus, it’s part of the state he did very well in the 2010 primaries, if I remember correctly, so that definitely seems the way for him to go.
- Will - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 2:48 pm:
- hisgirlfriday -
One last thing — any chance John Sullivan runs in the new 18th. I know it would be tough sledding but he did put himself out there for the old Lane Evans seat.
—-
You’re right that 13 could have been more Democratic. Johnson could do worse.
Sullivan is an interesting idea. He represents a large portion of the new 18 that isn’t part of Schock’s current district. It will be an Obama year and Schock has never had a Democratic opponent as formidable as Sullivan for his Congressional seat. Schock v. Sullivan could be another Dem pickup.
- Rich Miller - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 2:49 pm:
===Schock v. Sullivan could be another Dem pickup. ===
You’re dreaming. That’s one GOP district, bub.
- anon - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 2:57 pm:
Crickets from the Schilling camp. It will be nice to make him a one termer.
- Will - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 3:09 pm:
===Schock v. Sullivan could be another Dem pickup. ===
You’re dreaming. That’s one GOP district, bub.
—-
Ok, I’m dreaming, but it’s a district that includes Sullivan’s hometown and base, but doesn’t include most of Peoria. I’d say 2012 is the year to go for it.
- Anonymous - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 3:15 pm:
Carl might be right. By the time all is said and done, even Establishment Republicans might wind up pulling each others’ hair out.
- ArchPundit - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 3:22 pm:
==Ok, I’m dreaming, but it’s a district that includes Sullivan’s hometown and base, but doesn’t include most of Peoria. I’d say 2012 is the year to go for it.
Sometimes you have to take what you get–and you got a lot.
- LMFAO - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 3:32 pm:
Sullivan won’t be able to hold his ILSen district .. beating “the belt” would not happen either.
- The Dark Horse - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 3:32 pm:
Moustis is correct, but he fails to note that he is the county board chairman by virtue of a similar mapping process.
- Southern Illinois Democrat - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 3:49 pm:
My Congressman, Shimkus, has been drawn out of my new district (15).This is a great day! I may continue to have a Republican Rep in the future but at least they wont be as far right as Shimkus. Hopefully he doesnt run in the 15th and stays closer to home.
- hisgirlfriday - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 4:02 pm:
All right, all right, just talking out loud about my IL-18 pipe dream.
Then what about the ostensibly swing Dem Central Illinois district they drew here? Who are possible Dems to run in this new 13th? Would Mike Frerichs take a shot at this or is he content to stay in the Senate?
- ANON - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 4:03 pm:
==Ok, I’m dreaming, but it’s a district that includes Sullivan’s hometown and base, but doesn’t include most of Peoria. I’d say 2012 is the year to go for it.==
The GOP would love for the Democrats to throw all they have at that district and more. Because it’d be throwing money down the toilet. Just because it doesn’t include Peoria doesn’t mean it’d be a tough district for Schock. In Sangamon County, for instance, the biggest Democrat areas are cut off into the 13th, and leave the rest, largley Republican, in the 18th.
- Out of the box - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 4:15 pm:
The 11th is perfect for Cedra Crenshaw. It only leans Dem. It’s a much fairer race than her State Senate Campaign. Without being so grossly out-spent, she may have a shot. Plus she already has national name recognition.
- FanoMike Jacobs - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 4:21 pm:
Crickets from the schwiebert, boland and hare camp….it would be nice to eliminate those jerks in the primary! MIKEY JACOBS IN A LANDSLIDEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- oh please - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 4:29 pm:
I’m sure the TPI (Tea Party Illinois) is overjoyed at Senator Kirk’s comments about Latino representation! Or, for that matter, the press release that accompanied the Republicon proposal as they criticized the lack of superduper majority latino legislative districts.
- markg8 - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 4:33 pm:
oh please wait until the House raises the debt limit
and watch them eat their tri corner hats.
- Carl Nyberg - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 4:39 pm:
Everybody in the Illinois Senate has to run in 2012, because it’s a new map.
State senators will get two cycles between 2014 and 2020 where they won’t have to run for re-election b/c they are in the middle of a four-year term.
I think there’s emerging consensus that Democrats do better running in presidential cycles and Republicans do better in non-presidential cycles.
So, I expect Dems that win in 2012 will draw challengers who are state senators in 2014. The Democratic state senators will be more aggressive in the 2016 cycle.
After the 2010 ltgov debacle, I have a much lower opinion of Illinois legislators having the skills necessary to run without someone else providing the muscle. Halvorson’s crash-and-burn is another piece of evidence that people don’t become better campaigners for having spent time in Springfield.
But that’s why we hold elections to test all these theories.
- Carl Nyberg - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 4:43 pm:
One of the things duplicitous about Kirk’s remarks is that if the Dems did create a second Latino district by connecting Humboldt Park, Melrose Park, Stone Park, Northlake, and Elgin, the Republicans would be whining up a storm about the gerrymandering required.
Combining Pilsen, Cicero, Berwyn and Latino parts of IL-03 into one district is no great trick. But where’s the second Latino district come from Senator Kirk? You want to connect Aurora, Elgin and Rockford?
- imeanreally - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 4:47 pm:
Sorry to be a pain…and I know how to use the interwebtubes and Google Earth…but it appears that Schock has been mapped into 17 possibly. Does anyone have an accurate address? I used his state campaign filing and it seems to show 17.
Again, I’m sorry if I missed something.
- hisgirlfriday - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 5:04 pm:
I am fascinated to see how the 14th plays out. On one hand, Walsh is obviously nuts and the establishment GOP would probably like to throw him over and keep Hultgren.
On the other hand, the Republican base is obviously nuts and could give a crap about what the establishment GOP wants and might just vote for Walsh anyway just like they did in 2010.
How popular is Hultgren in his district? It seems like Walsh finds a way to get his name in the national press constantly even if it’s not often a positive way. But Hultgren is just totally nonexistent when it comes to media coverage of the Illinois delegation.
- Anonymous - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 5:19 pm:
===…which makes him the only reporter in dc besides george will who supported Jack! Ryan. ===
Was that trivia, or being trivial, shore?
- Louis Howe - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 5:25 pm:
The 17th is not 60% democratic…perhaps 55-56%…at most….If they are using Obama’s 2008 numbers, they down at least 6 points.
- Anonymous - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 5:29 pm:
===I’m sure the TPI (Tea Party Illinois) is overjoyed at Senator Kirk’s comments about Latino representation! Or, for that matter…
…ignoring it as just another press release and staying focused on future candidates and elections.
- Montecore - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 6:21 pm:
Schock lives in the new 18th. His base is the Peoria media market, not necessarily the south side of the city of Peoria. Look a the map. People keep writing here that a “good part of his Peoria base is gone,” but it’s just the most democrat part and a overall it’s a small part of Peoria County. Peoria COUNTY, Tazewell, Woodford, Marshall, Logan is his base. The rest is mostly pure Republican. McLean County is Peoria TV market and they’ve heard all his ads and TV news for ten years now. Might be the most republican district in this map, if not the second most. Sullivan is unknown in Sangamon, and all of the Peoria media market. The part of the this new 18th district that Sullivan now represents is relatively lightly populated.
- G. Willickers - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 7:11 pm:
Did the GOP run out of cash to hire more press release writers? Way to copy n paste there fellas.
If Dold were serious about running in the newly open 10th he’d move out of his parents’ house. Considering how much money he lost on his last house maybe he’s a bit gun shy on being a homeowner again.
- G. Willickers - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 7:13 pm:
@ Carl - “So Raja was connected enough to know about the creation of this new Eighth CD.
anon (10:25), thanks for the info.”
…….So were all the reporters that have been saying the same thing online for weeks.
- ILDems - Friday, May 27, 11 @ 10:52 pm:
Atkinson should keep his pledge and run against Lipinski in CD-3. It was the whole justification of his candidacy. Is Duckworth running in CD-8?? Must be more than a couple of good candidates for CD-10, Seals and Hamons? Foster has a strong base in Aurora and well known around Naperville - absolutely good fit for newly drawn CD-11. Also a couple strong names are emerging in CD-17.