SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Foster releases poll showing Biggert lead

Wednesday, Sep 5, 2012

* The 11th CD is a Democratic leaning district, which was basically drawn to elect one-term Congressman Bill Foster. Yet, he’s still trailing Republican Judy Biggert according to Foster’s own polling. From a press release…

After more than 30 years in politics, Congresswoman Judy Biggert is struggling to hold on to her seat in Congress, according to a recent survey of 401 likely voters in Illinois’ 11th Congressional District conducted by Global Strategy Group. The results showed that Congresswoman Biggert and Bill Foster are locked in a dead heat, with Biggert at 43% and Foster at 42%, a statistical tie. It’s evident that voters are fed up with Washington and are hesitant to support longtime incumbent Congresswoman Biggert.

“It’s clear that voters in the 11th district are ready for a better voice in Washington, one that puts the interests of middle class above Wall Street profits and special interests,” said Patrick Brown, Campaign Manager for Bill Foster. “Congresswoman Biggert has a long history in politics and a long history of voting for policies that protect tax cuts for corporations and billionaires instead of looking out for ordinary Americans. Our campaign has tremendous grassroots support and as we enter the last two months of the race we remain confident that voters will continue to see Bill’s dedication to fighting for middle class families.”

Um, it’s not clear at all that voters are ready to change their congresscritter.

* And Foster even admits that he’s badly underperforming the generic ballot and President Obama. From his pollster…

Biggert sits well below the 50% mark: Judy Biggert sits well below the 50% mark, a real sign of vulnerability for incumbents. Biggert (43%) and her challenger, Bill Foster (42%), are locked in a dead heat with just 15% of voters still undecided at this time.

Biggert’s unfavorable ratings are two times higher than Foster’s: At a time when Republicans in Congress are very unpopular, Biggert’s own unfavorable ratings (29% unfavorable) are nearly twice as high as her challenger, Bill Foster’s (15% unfavorable). This dynamic suggests Biggert may be forced to run a more negative campaign, a theory that is supported by the fact that she has already dropped negative mail against Foster.

The partisan environment in the district favors Democrats: Voters in the district self identify as Democrats by a 7-point margin and a generic Democratic candidate for Congress leads a generic Republican candidate for Congress by 5 points, 46% to 41%.
The top of the ticket is a drag on Biggert: While voters in the district view Mitt Romney unfavorably (net -7 points), Barack Obama receives a positive favorability rating (net +10 points) and leads the Presidential contest by 8 points.

Since Foster also served a term, he’s kinda considered a sorta incumbent, so sitting below 50 is bad for him as well.

It’s no surprise that Biggert is trying to run up Foster’s negatives, since hers are higher than his.

Foster probably needs to tie himself closer to Obama. The President won’t do as well as last time, but that polling shows he’s still leading in that particular district. From the Daily Herald

In a Daily Herald survey, 71 percent of Illinois Democratic delegates who responded thought Obama could fall short in at least some suburban areas. Twenty-nine percent said the president can sweep the collar counties once again.

More than 91 percent expect an overall Obama victory on Nov. 6, with 7 percent calling his chances 50-50 and 2 percent saying it’s an uphill battle. Fifty-one Democrats responded to the survey out of 214 total delegates. […]

In 2008, Obama won the Democratic stronghold of Cook County easily, but also carried DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties.

In both 2000 and 2004, all of the collar counties voted for Republican President George W. Bush. And in 1996, for the re-election of popular Democratic President Bill Clinton, DuPage, Kane and McHenry counties went for his Republican opponent, Sen. Bob Dole. Lake and Will counties went for Clinton — Lake by just 166 votes.

* Methodology…

401 likely voters in Illinois’ 11th Congressional District conducted by Global Strategy Group between August 27 and August 29, 2012. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/- 4.9%.

* Related…

* Voters get rare opportunity in Foster, Biggert race - You can see how both Foster, Biggert actually voted

* Biggert, Foster sit down for first debate of new 11th district

- Posted by Rich Miller        


14 Comments
  1. - cassandra - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 10:48 am:

    Oh, the power of incumbency. Pat Quinn should take heart.


  2. - Anonymoose - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 10:56 am:

    If Foster’s GSG was the same hack polling firm that contacted me, Judy Biggert is lucky to be anywhere close to even 43%. One pro-Foster push question was something along the lines of “Would you vote for Judy Biggert if you knew she supported big banks?”


  3. - so.... - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:03 am:

    ==If Foster’s GSG was the same hack polling firm that contacted me, Judy Biggert is lucky to be anywhere close to even 43%. One pro-Foster push question was something along the lines of “Would you vote for Judy Biggert if you knew she supported big banks?”==

    Especially since Foster voted for TARP…


  4. - Adam Smith - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:04 am:

    Bill Foster was an accidental congressman who owes his 24 month tenure to Hastert Fatigue in the 14 district, Oberweis’s pathetic campaign and lack of skills as a candidate, the 2008 Obama love-fest in Illinois, and his personal bank account.

    Today, as Rich clearly pointed out this morning, the landscape has changed. In the ‘burbs Obama (while still a likely winner) isn’t going to help. Judy Biggert can raise money, has an absolutely clear moderate record, has virtually no enemies, is working harder than she’s worked in a decade and has a seasoned team.

    Foster is still lacking in people skills, it tied to very unpopular votes (like Obamacare) and cannot run against Congress since he was in the stimulus/Obamacare House.

    This is also a district that went for Mark Kirk in ‘10 which means it shapes up pretty darn well for another moderate Republican.

    N


  5. - Jayhawk - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:11 am:

    This would seem to me to be a great poll for Foster. A long term incumbent is well under 50% facing a well financed opponent in a presidential year where her party’s nominee is leading does not bode well for her.

    Yes, Foster served previously and is not matching Obama yet, but there’s room to grow. When undecided or swing voters get into the voting booth, its doubtful they are going to pick the incumbent this cycle, regardless of the opposition.

    Couple that with a seven point point democratic identification advantage and while this race is by no means over, I would much rather be Foster than Biggert at this point.

    BTW - the Herald poll of Democratic delegates is useless for prediction purposes.


  6. - Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:22 am:

    Really, no Jayhwak. You need to look at the redistricting to see why.


  7. - OneMan - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:34 am:

    Jayhawk, the district is largely new for her as well and was drawn for a Dem.

    Foster isn’t going to be as well funded this time since I suspect he has less of his own money to draw from and there are better targets in Illinois (Walsh) than Biggert so the investment in picking up a seat would be better spent on Duckworth IMHO.

    Yeah, Bill should be up 5 and the fact that he isn’t is not a good sign. Don’t forget he got beat fairly bad when he ran for re-election (nothing like spending several million of your own money to spend about 30 months in congress)


  8. - steve schnorf - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:53 am:

    What this poll tells me is what a fine MC Biggert has been–years in Congress and only 29% negative. That’s impressive.


  9. - Cutler Fan - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 12:13 pm:

    That district wasn’t drawn for Foster. It was drawn for John Atkinson.


  10. - muon - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 12:43 pm:

    Cutler Fan is correct. The map cut Atkinson out of the 3rd CD to avoid a primary against Lipinski, but gave him a lean D district that he lived in. However, Foster announced right away for the new 11th even though it has relatively little population from his old 14th. That caused Atkinson to announce his suspension of a campaign by mid-June last year.


  11. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 1:13 pm:

    This poll probably is good news for Foster, although it won’t be quite enough to tie himself to Obama, he’s also got to paint Biggert as an obstructionist to Obama’s efforts.

    That will be a bit tougher.


  12. - Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 4:19 pm:

    This poll is good for Foster fundraising efforts. It is also good for Biggert’s…


  13. - Mr Residency - Thursday, Sep 6, 12 @ 7:06 am:

    If the public became more aware of the fact that Biggert has NO plans to move into the new district, she would have even fewer supporters.


  14. - Rich - Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 9:16 pm:

    I’m disappointed in the Foster’s campaign compared to Duckworth. He doesn’t seem to be as out there in the streets etc as she is and her on line work is outstanding. Foster is meh. I know that it is ‘early’, but Biggert is an entrenched do-nothing Republican who just follows the party line and does just enough to get her name in the paper. She is pretty much just a paper-mache representative who should be easy to beat.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the holiday weekend
* Can't anybody play this game?
* Radogno: Pass the grand bargain by the end of this month or forget it
* Question of the day
* CMS warns comptroller over draining special funds
* *** UPDATED x3 *** ISBE to vote on settling Urban League school funding lawsuit
* *** UPDATED x1 - FY18 bills filed *** Get out your checkbook, Mr. Mayor
* Midway contract criticized
* Bob Michel passes away
* Another day, another Rauner campaign ad
* Clearing up a little confusion
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Madigan orders committee to take up Thompson Center sale issue
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

  
* IFROGZ Impulse Wireless Headphones review
* Korean regulators looking into whether Google’s Android hurt Samsung’s Tizen
* Free App 'Reverb' Brings Amazon's Alexa to Mac Desktops, iPhones and iPads
* Children's Organic Storybook 'Green Riding Hood' is Apple's Free App of the Week
* ZTE Hawkeye officially getting retooled, fund on Kickstarter canceled
* Reuters: Softbank wants Sprint and T-Mobile to merge, would give up control to Deutsche Telekom
* Should you take benchmarks seriously?

* Renteria establishes rapport with White Sox
* Energized Lawrie stepping in right direction
* Moncada ignores hype, focuses on Sox roster
* Let's watch Yoan Moncada's adorable son flip his bat
* Fantasy Player Preview: Dominate your draft
* White Sox Top 30 Prospects list
* Spring Training has arrived! Get tickets, schedule and gear

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Voice of The Southern: Carbondale, SIU taking r.....
* Jim Dey: Budget, contract fights threaten state.....
* Battling Illinois’ budget blues..
* Battling Illinois' budget blues - Champaign/Urb.....
* John Foreman: I just don't understand - Champai.....
* Jim Dey: Budget, contract fights threaten state.....
* Walter Jacobson's Perspective 2/19/2107: Boomin.....
* State law requires Will County schools, daycare.....


* Illinois Ag Department to discuss plan to fight gypsy moths
* SIU-Carbondale narrows chancellor search to 7 semifinalists
* Off-duty sheriff shot in the leg
* Syrian woman previously denied entry arrives in Chicago
* Police find nearly 130 explosives at Normal man's home
* Tentative settlement reached in 2008 Illinois education suit
* U of Illinois police issue letter about sexual assaults
* Maine utility regulators to consider $1.5B FairPoint sale
* Amputee prosthetic legs with Boston bombing survivor's help
* Illinois summer police camp for teens taking applications

* Effort to privatize economic development questioned
* State budget impasse still hurting schools
* DHS moving into former Barney's Furniture store
* Madigan says House will consider sale of Thompson Center
* Bustos, other Dems demand Rauner pay domestic violence money
* State budget gap could be more than $7 billion
* Rauner administration says Mendoza decision on payroll could jeopardize services
* Legislation to change date on state seal passes House
* Lisa Madigan to appeal denial of motion to stop state worker pay
* Illinois attorney general to appeal denial of motion to stop state worker pay

* Like our roundup? Share it around.
* The 50 priciest​ home sales of 2016 are here
* Rauner finally weighs in on budget to Capitol laughter and groans
* Springfield's incapacity a threat to all small businesses, including mine
* Is Bruce Rauner the only grown-up in Springfield?


* 2 dead in Peotone motorcycle crash
* Chicago man wins $4 million lottery prize
* Beat the Champs: Half the field, Section 4/Will Cty & Fox Valley
* 6 injured when car crashes into South Loop building
* Man shot during argument in Pilsen
* Joliet man dies at work, trapped between heavy machinery
* Four hospitalized due to carbon monoxide in Naperville
* Man suspected in 5 bank robberies strikes again in Alsip
* Man shot while driving on Dan Ryan
* Dear Abby: Late to bed, late to rise makes mom, kids tardy


* Vinnie Hinostroza will rejoin the Blackhawks in Buffalo
* Swedes scratch heads after Trump says 'look what's happening last night in Sweden'
* Pence visits former Nazi concentration camp
* SpaceX launches rocket from NASA's historic moon pad
* Off-duty Cook County correctional officer shot in Englewood
* Dwyane Wade and Gabrielle Union won't 'stick to sports' - nor should they
* David Rollins finds relief with Cubs after offseason in flux
* The FCC wants you to be able to listen to FM radio from your smartphone
* Revived by rally, Trump turns back to governing
* 1 dead, 10 wounded, including Cook County officer, in Chicago shootings


» Syrian Family Reunites Three Weeks After Travel Ban
» Man Charged In Shooting Death Of Chicago Toddler
» State Week: 'Balanced' Is In The Eye Of The Beholder
» State Settles Suit Over Discriminatory School Funding
» Professor Says Department Will Still Consider Students Affected By Travel Ban
» Man Charged With Shooting 11-Year-Old Assaulted
» Indiana Governor Pledges State Aid For East Chicago Lead Problems
» City Council Advances Plan To Bring New Stores To Midway
» Ex-Obama Aide Fined $90,000 For Chicago Lobbying Violation
» WWII Pilot's Family To Honor O'Hare At Namesake Airport


* Bernard Schoenburg: Dems eye Rodney Davis, who expects the challenge
* Effort to privatize economic development questioned
* Bernard Schoenburg: Dems eye Davis, who expects the challenge
* Statehouse Insider: This is what's meant by balanced?
* State budget impasse still hurting schools
* Our View: Springfield aldermen need to look long term on budget
* DHS moving into former Barney's Furniture store
* Dalia Anguiano Henry: The path toward being a compassionate, faith-motivated activist
* United Way: Addressing basic needs in our community
* Addressing basic needs in our community


* St. Clair County considering trap and release rules for stray cats
* Radio personality Ryan Patrick found his voice at JALC
* PFOP: Campaign to aid Britain comes to Bloomington
* Family endures difficult first decade of farm enterprise
* Big box stores adopt home delivery while smaller ones adapt without
* Bicycle-sharing program to launch March 20
* No complaints: Surprise heat wave breaks records, lures many outside
* St. Louis officers involved in shooting late Saturday
* Kiosk designed to raise awareness about earthquake threat
* George Will: An adult voice amid pandemic childishness


* Blast in Somalia kills 20 in Mogadishu marketplace
* Senior Trump appointee fired after critical comments
* The fiduciary rule and you
* How a pet chicken helped me understand my autistic son
* Toughening penalties if pets are harmed during crimes

* US Representative Randy Hultgren visits ne...
* US Congressman tours new Aurora Specialty ...
* Hultgren criticizes immigration ban, Roska...
* Bernard Schoenburg: Dems eye Rodney Davis,...
* Hultgren updates work on heroin, opioid ab...
* Group upset with Trump wants Town Hall mee...
* US Rep. Randy Hultgren talks veterans' iss...
* US Rep. Randy Hultgren reflects on busines...
* Hultgren co-sponsors bill to assist Americ...
* Rep. Randy Hultgren appears to distance hi...

* Sen. Hirono, Other Democrats Introduce Bil......
* Sen. Hirono, Other Democrats Introduce Bil......

* Dem Sen Duckworth: 'This Is Not the Presid......

* We have been here before. 75 years ago today, FDR signed Executive Order 9066.
* “We oppose the expansion of Speer Charter High School.”
* Resistance Sunday.
* Day Of Remembrance Programs At History Museum Sunday
* Take the Trump survey and rate the perfidious media
* The horrors—real and imagined—of a weekend in Trump’s southern Illinois
* New York quartet Hush Point deftly modernize west-coast jazz fundamentals
* Andersonville Restaurant Week, Ballet de Lorraine, and more things to do in Chicago this weekend
* Activate:Chi aims to bring the music and nightlife biz into the resistance
* Former Obama adviser David Plouffe fined for illegally lobbying Rahm on behalf of Uber, and other Chicago news


* Governor Takes Bill Action
* 2017 Budget Address
* Rauner, Lawmakers Move to Protect Taxpayers from Inmate Legal Bills
* Illinois Department of Veterans’ Affairs Announcednew pilot program titled Tiny Boots
* Governor Rauner Attends Illinois National Guard Deployment Ceremony




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller