SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Foster releases poll showing Biggert lead

Wednesday, Sep 5, 2012

* The 11th CD is a Democratic leaning district, which was basically drawn to elect one-term Congressman Bill Foster. Yet, he’s still trailing Republican Judy Biggert according to Foster’s own polling. From a press release…

After more than 30 years in politics, Congresswoman Judy Biggert is struggling to hold on to her seat in Congress, according to a recent survey of 401 likely voters in Illinois’ 11th Congressional District conducted by Global Strategy Group. The results showed that Congresswoman Biggert and Bill Foster are locked in a dead heat, with Biggert at 43% and Foster at 42%, a statistical tie. It’s evident that voters are fed up with Washington and are hesitant to support longtime incumbent Congresswoman Biggert.

“It’s clear that voters in the 11th district are ready for a better voice in Washington, one that puts the interests of middle class above Wall Street profits and special interests,” said Patrick Brown, Campaign Manager for Bill Foster. “Congresswoman Biggert has a long history in politics and a long history of voting for policies that protect tax cuts for corporations and billionaires instead of looking out for ordinary Americans. Our campaign has tremendous grassroots support and as we enter the last two months of the race we remain confident that voters will continue to see Bill’s dedication to fighting for middle class families.”

Um, it’s not clear at all that voters are ready to change their congresscritter.

* And Foster even admits that he’s badly underperforming the generic ballot and President Obama. From his pollster…

Biggert sits well below the 50% mark: Judy Biggert sits well below the 50% mark, a real sign of vulnerability for incumbents. Biggert (43%) and her challenger, Bill Foster (42%), are locked in a dead heat with just 15% of voters still undecided at this time.

Biggert’s unfavorable ratings are two times higher than Foster’s: At a time when Republicans in Congress are very unpopular, Biggert’s own unfavorable ratings (29% unfavorable) are nearly twice as high as her challenger, Bill Foster’s (15% unfavorable). This dynamic suggests Biggert may be forced to run a more negative campaign, a theory that is supported by the fact that she has already dropped negative mail against Foster.

The partisan environment in the district favors Democrats: Voters in the district self identify as Democrats by a 7-point margin and a generic Democratic candidate for Congress leads a generic Republican candidate for Congress by 5 points, 46% to 41%.
The top of the ticket is a drag on Biggert: While voters in the district view Mitt Romney unfavorably (net -7 points), Barack Obama receives a positive favorability rating (net +10 points) and leads the Presidential contest by 8 points.

Since Foster also served a term, he’s kinda considered a sorta incumbent, so sitting below 50 is bad for him as well.

It’s no surprise that Biggert is trying to run up Foster’s negatives, since hers are higher than his.

Foster probably needs to tie himself closer to Obama. The President won’t do as well as last time, but that polling shows he’s still leading in that particular district. From the Daily Herald

In a Daily Herald survey, 71 percent of Illinois Democratic delegates who responded thought Obama could fall short in at least some suburban areas. Twenty-nine percent said the president can sweep the collar counties once again.

More than 91 percent expect an overall Obama victory on Nov. 6, with 7 percent calling his chances 50-50 and 2 percent saying it’s an uphill battle. Fifty-one Democrats responded to the survey out of 214 total delegates. […]

In 2008, Obama won the Democratic stronghold of Cook County easily, but also carried DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties.

In both 2000 and 2004, all of the collar counties voted for Republican President George W. Bush. And in 1996, for the re-election of popular Democratic President Bill Clinton, DuPage, Kane and McHenry counties went for his Republican opponent, Sen. Bob Dole. Lake and Will counties went for Clinton — Lake by just 166 votes.

* Methodology…

401 likely voters in Illinois’ 11th Congressional District conducted by Global Strategy Group between August 27 and August 29, 2012. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/- 4.9%.

* Related…

* Voters get rare opportunity in Foster, Biggert race - You can see how both Foster, Biggert actually voted

* Biggert, Foster sit down for first debate of new 11th district

- Posted by Rich Miller        


14 Comments
  1. - cassandra - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 10:48 am:

    Oh, the power of incumbency. Pat Quinn should take heart.


  2. - Anonymoose - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 10:56 am:

    If Foster’s GSG was the same hack polling firm that contacted me, Judy Biggert is lucky to be anywhere close to even 43%. One pro-Foster push question was something along the lines of “Would you vote for Judy Biggert if you knew she supported big banks?”


  3. - so.... - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:03 am:

    ==If Foster’s GSG was the same hack polling firm that contacted me, Judy Biggert is lucky to be anywhere close to even 43%. One pro-Foster push question was something along the lines of “Would you vote for Judy Biggert if you knew she supported big banks?”==

    Especially since Foster voted for TARP…


  4. - Adam Smith - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:04 am:

    Bill Foster was an accidental congressman who owes his 24 month tenure to Hastert Fatigue in the 14 district, Oberweis’s pathetic campaign and lack of skills as a candidate, the 2008 Obama love-fest in Illinois, and his personal bank account.

    Today, as Rich clearly pointed out this morning, the landscape has changed. In the ‘burbs Obama (while still a likely winner) isn’t going to help. Judy Biggert can raise money, has an absolutely clear moderate record, has virtually no enemies, is working harder than she’s worked in a decade and has a seasoned team.

    Foster is still lacking in people skills, it tied to very unpopular votes (like Obamacare) and cannot run against Congress since he was in the stimulus/Obamacare House.

    This is also a district that went for Mark Kirk in ‘10 which means it shapes up pretty darn well for another moderate Republican.

    N


  5. - Jayhawk - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:11 am:

    This would seem to me to be a great poll for Foster. A long term incumbent is well under 50% facing a well financed opponent in a presidential year where her party’s nominee is leading does not bode well for her.

    Yes, Foster served previously and is not matching Obama yet, but there’s room to grow. When undecided or swing voters get into the voting booth, its doubtful they are going to pick the incumbent this cycle, regardless of the opposition.

    Couple that with a seven point point democratic identification advantage and while this race is by no means over, I would much rather be Foster than Biggert at this point.

    BTW - the Herald poll of Democratic delegates is useless for prediction purposes.


  6. - Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:22 am:

    Really, no Jayhwak. You need to look at the redistricting to see why.


  7. - OneMan - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:34 am:

    Jayhawk, the district is largely new for her as well and was drawn for a Dem.

    Foster isn’t going to be as well funded this time since I suspect he has less of his own money to draw from and there are better targets in Illinois (Walsh) than Biggert so the investment in picking up a seat would be better spent on Duckworth IMHO.

    Yeah, Bill should be up 5 and the fact that he isn’t is not a good sign. Don’t forget he got beat fairly bad when he ran for re-election (nothing like spending several million of your own money to spend about 30 months in congress)


  8. - steve schnorf - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:53 am:

    What this poll tells me is what a fine MC Biggert has been–years in Congress and only 29% negative. That’s impressive.


  9. - Cutler Fan - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 12:13 pm:

    That district wasn’t drawn for Foster. It was drawn for John Atkinson.


  10. - muon - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 12:43 pm:

    Cutler Fan is correct. The map cut Atkinson out of the 3rd CD to avoid a primary against Lipinski, but gave him a lean D district that he lived in. However, Foster announced right away for the new 11th even though it has relatively little population from his old 14th. That caused Atkinson to announce his suspension of a campaign by mid-June last year.


  11. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 1:13 pm:

    This poll probably is good news for Foster, although it won’t be quite enough to tie himself to Obama, he’s also got to paint Biggert as an obstructionist to Obama’s efforts.

    That will be a bit tougher.


  12. - Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 4:19 pm:

    This poll is good for Foster fundraising efforts. It is also good for Biggert’s…


  13. - Mr Residency - Thursday, Sep 6, 12 @ 7:06 am:

    If the public became more aware of the fact that Biggert has NO plans to move into the new district, she would have even fewer supporters.


  14. - Rich - Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 9:16 pm:

    I’m disappointed in the Foster’s campaign compared to Duckworth. He doesn’t seem to be as out there in the streets etc as she is and her on line work is outstanding. Foster is meh. I know that it is ‘early’, but Biggert is an entrenched do-nothing Republican who just follows the party line and does just enough to get her name in the paper. She is pretty much just a paper-mache representative who should be easy to beat.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Where do these people learn to talk like that???
* Suarez stands by her ad, produces evidence
* Question of the day
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Lifestyles of the rich and famous
* A very good point
* Rauner outspent 2-1 on Chicago TV last month
* So far, it's still stuntish
* Politico report: Enyart slipping fast, Callis dumped
* *** UPDATED x1 - Another poll shows single digits *** Poll: Durbin with a single digit lead and slightly below 50
* *** UPDATED x1 - Suarez produces evidence *** A big swing and an even bigger miss
* *** UPDATED x1 - Dold response *** Schneider up with first TV ad
* This year's best test of party strength
* A boldfaced lie
* Rate Gov. Quinn's new TV ad
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Lumia 830 leaks trump previous rumors, only 10 megapixel camera?
        * Galaxy Note 4 camera, working iPhone 6 leaks, iWatch times & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * Rooted Android devices being denied access to Barclays bank apps
        * Moto G2 retail box caught on camera at retailer’s warehouse?
        * T-Mobile set to launch a new ZTE-made 4G hotspot device?
        * Bio Inc game lets you create the ultimate disease
        * Two new T-Mo Alcatel phones available from next week

        * The Technology of Travel
        * iPhone 6 Weekend Launch Sales To Be Lower Than Expected [Analyst]
        * Apple Rumored To Have Partnered With Nordstrom For Mobile Payments
        * Nokia Lumia 830 Could Sport 10MP PureView Camera [Rumor]
        * There’s now a virtual reality headset designed specifically for an LG mobile phone
        * Opera Mini For Windows Phone Enters Into Public Beta
        * Windows Phone Developers Spend The Most Time On Design [Survey]

        * Season Review: 2014 Charlotte Knights
        * White Sox call up Josh Phegley, Marcus Semien, Jordan Danks, Scott...
        * Prospect Rodon not among White Sox callups
        * White Sox unburden themselves for September
        * White Sox Minor League Update: End of the regular season
        * Noesi looks to continue push toward season's end
        * Williams conveys important message to Little Leaguers


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Bruce Rauner seems to think Illinois voters are.....
        * Can youth football be a safer game?..
        * peHUB Second Opinion..
        * Which States Have the Best Technology?..
        * Quinn Mows Lawn In Latest Ad..
        * Gubernatorial candidates discuss jobs, veterans..
        * Critics take on Quinn’s $102 million high-speed.....
        * Candidates for Governor battle over military ve.....
        * State accepting patient applications for medica.....


        * Study: Playing music helps sharpen kids' brains
        * EPA OKs FutureGen plan for CO2 storage
        * Kirk: US must take hard line against Islamic State
        * Gubernatorial candidates discuss jobs, veterans
        * Suburban Chicago man sentenced for killing infant
        * Rauner criticizes Quinn on veterans
        * Illinois woman rescued after day stuck in mud
        * First medical marijuana tally expected next week
        * School starts in Chicago with more safety guards
        * Climatologist says August warmed up in Illinois

        * Rauner criticizes Quinn on veterans
        * Gubernatorial candidates discuss jobs, veterans
        * Quinn: Eating crackers on minimum wage challenge
        * Illinois prisons struggle with backup power issues
        * State starts accepting medical marijuana requests
        * Audit finds state lax in reviewing eligibility for children’s health insurance program
        * Does the governor need to live in the Executive Mansion?
        * Statehouse Insider: Hands off investments
        * State of unions: AFSCME wins some, loses some on outsourcing
        * State of unions: Domination of Illinois' workforce becomes campaign issue

        * Rauner's $100,000 question
        * Amtrak renews complaint against freight line over Chicago-Carbondale delays
        * A new, improved commuter bike for $325? Well, sort of
        * Hinshaw merger sets up law firm for more growth
        * Thoma Bravo to buy Compuware


        * Three dead, at least 37 hurt in Labor Day weekend shootings
        * New school year brings changes to Gresham
        * Four dead, 36 hurt in Labor Day weekend shootings
        * quit dragging feet on fracking
        * Kids pay the price for weak oversight of charter schools
        * 30 years for man who smothered baby, tossed him in garbage
        * 30-year sentence for man who smothered baby, tossed him in garbage
        * Convicted felon accused of fatally stabbing girlfriend 22 times


        * Woman in her 80s says in lawsuit she was trampled by runners at Little Italy festival
        * Cops did not find suicide note of man who killed wife, disabled children
        * Family files suit blaming Port Barrington bar for fatal crash
        * Rauner declines to say how personal relationship with Emanuel will affect political one
        * Not guilty pleas in red light camera bribery scheme
        * Prosecutors: Man plotted obstruction after slaying off-duty cop
        * Cops: Skokie man charged with gun, drug offenses
        * Man convicted of possessing child porn sentenced to 7 years
        * Garrett Popcorn sued over Chicago Mix
        * Teen critically injured after being hit by train in Lake Zurich


        * Dana Thomas House Drying Out, But More Water Works Needed
        * FutureGen Takes Another Step Forward
        * Decatur's Kirkland - From Beethoven To The Beatles
        * Big Predators In Illinois Inspire New Law
        * WUIS/SJ-R Business Report: Casey's Expansion; Parsons In Court; Farmland Prices Fall
        * Opposition Research Key Part Of Political Dark Arts
        * Digging up political dirt? That's their job
        * State Starts Accepting Medical Marijuana Requests
        * Newborn Found Alive In Jacksonville Trash Bin
        * DNR Releases Fracking Rules


        * Rauner criticizes Quinn on veterans
        * Quinn: Eating crackers on minimum wage challenge
        * Illinois prisons struggle with backup power issues
        * State starts accepting medical marijuana requests
        * Couple’s wedding gifts help the community
        * Angela Bertoni: How to raise awareness of domestic violence in October
        * Catherine Rampell: Tech firms’ poor record of diversity
        * Audit finds state lax in reviewing eligibility for children’s health insurance program
        * Does the governor need to live in the Executive Mansion?
        * Our Opinion: Driving into floodwater a deadly practice


        * Gubernatorial candidates discuss jobs, veterans
        * Police: Highland High teen dies in high-speed Corvette crash
        * Free Fair Scholarship Pageant Thursday
        * SIU enrollment increases for first time in 10 years
        * Boyfriend spat leads to HIV charge
        * Wild ride ends on Champaign lawn
        * Josh Brent back in NFL picture
        * SportsTalk 9-2-14
        * Book signing by local author
        * Police: Man assaults wife, daughter


        * Imrem: It's easy these days to appreciate the McCaskeys
        * Mills eager to get back at it for Bears
        * Source: Broncos' Welker banned 4 games for amphetamines
        * U.S. strike targets leader of Somali extremist group
        * Obama to Europe: NATO to oppose Russian aggression

        * US Rep. Lipinski accepting service academy...
        * Dem Explains Why He Voted 'Present' on DAC...
        * Immigration dominates Lipinski's town hall...
        * At a glance: How metro-east residents vote...
        * Tom Kacich: Rauner's focus will soon shift...
        * Shimkus not taking anything for granted de...
        * Shimkus Supports Strikes, Criticizes Presi...
        * #DirtyDenier$ Day 5: Congressman John M. S...
        * Politics Notebook: Shimkus to meet with ve...
        * GOP congressmen from Illinois, Kentucky to...

        * Sen. Dick Durbin on Election, Congress, More...
        * Sen. Dick Durbin on Election, Congress, More...
        * Durbin, Bustos Highlight Potential of Digi......
        * Durbin, Bustos Highlight Potential of Digi......
        * Durbin, Bustos Highlight Potential of Digi......

        * Kirk: US must take hard line against Islam......
        * U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk...

        * Study: Businesses In Low-Income, Majority Minority Areas Struggle To Access Credit
        * Loan denied stamp
        * Election 2014
        * Guest Post: Harris v. Quinn: Another Nail In The Coffin Or Shot In The Arm For Labor?
        * Women's Rights Advocates, IL Lawmakers Rally For Reproductive Choice
        * Preckwinkle at Reproductive choice event
        * Reproductive choice event 2
        * Reproductive choice event
        * ISIS claims it has executed a second American journalist
        * Durbin - Oberweis race tightening; Oberweis endorsed by Bishop Trotter


        * When it comes to jobs and hiring, Pat Quinn is veteran unfriendly
        * Pat Quinn’s Blagojevich-style Hiring Hurts Veterans
        * Rauner Rolls Out Veterans Coalition
        * ICYMI: Capitol Fax: “A Very Good Point”
        * Like All Illinoisans, Veterans Are Hurting Under Pat Quinn




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller