* The 11th CD is a Democratic leaning district, which was basically drawn to elect one-term Congressman Bill Foster. Yet, he’s still trailing Republican Judy Biggert according to Foster’s own polling. From a press release…
After more than 30 years in politics, Congresswoman Judy Biggert is struggling to hold on to her seat in Congress, according to a recent survey of 401 likely voters in Illinois’ 11th Congressional District conducted by Global Strategy Group. The results showed that Congresswoman Biggert and Bill Foster are locked in a dead heat, with Biggert at 43% and Foster at 42%, a statistical tie. It’s evident that voters are fed up with Washington and are hesitant to support longtime incumbent Congresswoman Biggert.
“It’s clear that voters in the 11th district are ready for a better voice in Washington, one that puts the interests of middle class above Wall Street profits and special interests,” said Patrick Brown, Campaign Manager for Bill Foster. “Congresswoman Biggert has a long history in politics and a long history of voting for policies that protect tax cuts for corporations and billionaires instead of looking out for ordinary Americans. Our campaign has tremendous grassroots support and as we enter the last two months of the race we remain confident that voters will continue to see Bill’s dedication to fighting for middle class families.”
Um, it’s not clear at all that voters are ready to change their congresscritter.
* And Foster even admits that he’s badly underperforming the generic ballot and President Obama. From his pollster…
Biggert sits well below the 50% mark: Judy Biggert sits well below the 50% mark, a real sign of vulnerability for incumbents. Biggert (43%) and her challenger, Bill Foster (42%), are locked in a dead heat with just 15% of voters still undecided at this time.
Biggert’s unfavorable ratings are two times higher than Foster’s: At a time when Republicans in Congress are very unpopular, Biggert’s own unfavorable ratings (29% unfavorable) are nearly twice as high as her challenger, Bill Foster’s (15% unfavorable). This dynamic suggests Biggert may be forced to run a more negative campaign, a theory that is supported by the fact that she has already dropped negative mail against Foster.
The partisan environment in the district favors Democrats: Voters in the district self identify as Democrats by a 7-point margin and a generic Democratic candidate for Congress leads a generic Republican candidate for Congress by 5 points, 46% to 41%.
The top of the ticket is a drag on Biggert: While voters in the district view Mitt Romney unfavorably (net -7 points), Barack Obama receives a positive favorability rating (net +10 points) and leads the Presidential contest by 8 points.
Since Foster also served a term, he’s kinda considered a sorta incumbent, so sitting below 50 is bad for him as well.
It’s no surprise that Biggert is trying to run up Foster’s negatives, since hers are higher than his.
Foster probably needs to tie himself closer to Obama. The President won’t do as well as last time, but that polling shows he’s still leading in that particular district. From the Daily Herald…
In a Daily Herald survey, 71 percent of Illinois Democratic delegates who responded thought Obama could fall short in at least some suburban areas. Twenty-nine percent said the president can sweep the collar counties once again.
More than 91 percent expect an overall Obama victory on Nov. 6, with 7 percent calling his chances 50-50 and 2 percent saying it’s an uphill battle. Fifty-one Democrats responded to the survey out of 214 total delegates. […]
In 2008, Obama won the Democratic stronghold of Cook County easily, but also carried DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties.
In both 2000 and 2004, all of the collar counties voted for Republican President George W. Bush. And in 1996, for the re-election of popular Democratic President Bill Clinton, DuPage, Kane and McHenry counties went for his Republican opponent, Sen. Bob Dole. Lake and Will counties went for Clinton — Lake by just 166 votes.
401 likely voters in Illinois’ 11th Congressional District conducted by Global Strategy Group between August 27 and August 29, 2012. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/- 4.9%.
* Voters get rare opportunity in Foster, Biggert race - You can see how both Foster, Biggert actually voted
* Biggert, Foster sit down for first debate of new 11th district