Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Foster releases poll showing Biggert lead
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Foster releases poll showing Biggert lead

Wednesday, Sep 5, 2012

* The 11th CD is a Democratic leaning district, which was basically drawn to elect one-term Congressman Bill Foster. Yet, he’s still trailing Republican Judy Biggert according to Foster’s own polling. From a press release…

After more than 30 years in politics, Congresswoman Judy Biggert is struggling to hold on to her seat in Congress, according to a recent survey of 401 likely voters in Illinois’ 11th Congressional District conducted by Global Strategy Group. The results showed that Congresswoman Biggert and Bill Foster are locked in a dead heat, with Biggert at 43% and Foster at 42%, a statistical tie. It’s evident that voters are fed up with Washington and are hesitant to support longtime incumbent Congresswoman Biggert.

“It’s clear that voters in the 11th district are ready for a better voice in Washington, one that puts the interests of middle class above Wall Street profits and special interests,” said Patrick Brown, Campaign Manager for Bill Foster. “Congresswoman Biggert has a long history in politics and a long history of voting for policies that protect tax cuts for corporations and billionaires instead of looking out for ordinary Americans. Our campaign has tremendous grassroots support and as we enter the last two months of the race we remain confident that voters will continue to see Bill’s dedication to fighting for middle class families.”

Um, it’s not clear at all that voters are ready to change their congresscritter.

* And Foster even admits that he’s badly underperforming the generic ballot and President Obama. From his pollster…

Biggert sits well below the 50% mark: Judy Biggert sits well below the 50% mark, a real sign of vulnerability for incumbents. Biggert (43%) and her challenger, Bill Foster (42%), are locked in a dead heat with just 15% of voters still undecided at this time.

Biggert’s unfavorable ratings are two times higher than Foster’s: At a time when Republicans in Congress are very unpopular, Biggert’s own unfavorable ratings (29% unfavorable) are nearly twice as high as her challenger, Bill Foster’s (15% unfavorable). This dynamic suggests Biggert may be forced to run a more negative campaign, a theory that is supported by the fact that she has already dropped negative mail against Foster.

The partisan environment in the district favors Democrats: Voters in the district self identify as Democrats by a 7-point margin and a generic Democratic candidate for Congress leads a generic Republican candidate for Congress by 5 points, 46% to 41%.
The top of the ticket is a drag on Biggert: While voters in the district view Mitt Romney unfavorably (net -7 points), Barack Obama receives a positive favorability rating (net +10 points) and leads the Presidential contest by 8 points.

Since Foster also served a term, he’s kinda considered a sorta incumbent, so sitting below 50 is bad for him as well.

It’s no surprise that Biggert is trying to run up Foster’s negatives, since hers are higher than his.

Foster probably needs to tie himself closer to Obama. The President won’t do as well as last time, but that polling shows he’s still leading in that particular district. From the Daily Herald

In a Daily Herald survey, 71 percent of Illinois Democratic delegates who responded thought Obama could fall short in at least some suburban areas. Twenty-nine percent said the president can sweep the collar counties once again.

More than 91 percent expect an overall Obama victory on Nov. 6, with 7 percent calling his chances 50-50 and 2 percent saying it’s an uphill battle. Fifty-one Democrats responded to the survey out of 214 total delegates. […]

In 2008, Obama won the Democratic stronghold of Cook County easily, but also carried DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties.

In both 2000 and 2004, all of the collar counties voted for Republican President George W. Bush. And in 1996, for the re-election of popular Democratic President Bill Clinton, DuPage, Kane and McHenry counties went for his Republican opponent, Sen. Bob Dole. Lake and Will counties went for Clinton — Lake by just 166 votes.

* Methodology…

401 likely voters in Illinois’ 11th Congressional District conducted by Global Strategy Group between August 27 and August 29, 2012. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/- 4.9%.

* Related…

* Voters get rare opportunity in Foster, Biggert race - You can see how both Foster, Biggert actually voted

* Biggert, Foster sit down for first debate of new 11th district

- Posted by Rich Miller        

14 Comments
  1. - cassandra - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 10:48 am:

    Oh, the power of incumbency. Pat Quinn should take heart.


  2. - Anonymoose - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 10:56 am:

    If Foster’s GSG was the same hack polling firm that contacted me, Judy Biggert is lucky to be anywhere close to even 43%. One pro-Foster push question was something along the lines of “Would you vote for Judy Biggert if you knew she supported big banks?”


  3. - so.... - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:03 am:

    ==If Foster’s GSG was the same hack polling firm that contacted me, Judy Biggert is lucky to be anywhere close to even 43%. One pro-Foster push question was something along the lines of “Would you vote for Judy Biggert if you knew she supported big banks?”==

    Especially since Foster voted for TARP…


  4. - Adam Smith - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:04 am:

    Bill Foster was an accidental congressman who owes his 24 month tenure to Hastert Fatigue in the 14 district, Oberweis’s pathetic campaign and lack of skills as a candidate, the 2008 Obama love-fest in Illinois, and his personal bank account.

    Today, as Rich clearly pointed out this morning, the landscape has changed. In the ‘burbs Obama (while still a likely winner) isn’t going to help. Judy Biggert can raise money, has an absolutely clear moderate record, has virtually no enemies, is working harder than she’s worked in a decade and has a seasoned team.

    Foster is still lacking in people skills, it tied to very unpopular votes (like Obamacare) and cannot run against Congress since he was in the stimulus/Obamacare House.

    This is also a district that went for Mark Kirk in ‘10 which means it shapes up pretty darn well for another moderate Republican.

    N


  5. - Jayhawk - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:11 am:

    This would seem to me to be a great poll for Foster. A long term incumbent is well under 50% facing a well financed opponent in a presidential year where her party’s nominee is leading does not bode well for her.

    Yes, Foster served previously and is not matching Obama yet, but there’s room to grow. When undecided or swing voters get into the voting booth, its doubtful they are going to pick the incumbent this cycle, regardless of the opposition.

    Couple that with a seven point point democratic identification advantage and while this race is by no means over, I would much rather be Foster than Biggert at this point.

    BTW - the Herald poll of Democratic delegates is useless for prediction purposes.


  6. - Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:22 am:

    Really, no Jayhwak. You need to look at the redistricting to see why.


  7. - OneMan - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:34 am:

    Jayhawk, the district is largely new for her as well and was drawn for a Dem.

    Foster isn’t going to be as well funded this time since I suspect he has less of his own money to draw from and there are better targets in Illinois (Walsh) than Biggert so the investment in picking up a seat would be better spent on Duckworth IMHO.

    Yeah, Bill should be up 5 and the fact that he isn’t is not a good sign. Don’t forget he got beat fairly bad when he ran for re-election (nothing like spending several million of your own money to spend about 30 months in congress)


  8. - steve schnorf - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 11:53 am:

    What this poll tells me is what a fine MC Biggert has been–years in Congress and only 29% negative. That’s impressive.


  9. - Cutler Fan - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 12:13 pm:

    That district wasn’t drawn for Foster. It was drawn for John Atkinson.


  10. - muon - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 12:43 pm:

    Cutler Fan is correct. The map cut Atkinson out of the 3rd CD to avoid a primary against Lipinski, but gave him a lean D district that he lived in. However, Foster announced right away for the new 11th even though it has relatively little population from his old 14th. That caused Atkinson to announce his suspension of a campaign by mid-June last year.


  11. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 1:13 pm:

    This poll probably is good news for Foster, although it won’t be quite enough to tie himself to Obama, he’s also got to paint Biggert as an obstructionist to Obama’s efforts.

    That will be a bit tougher.


  12. - Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Sep 5, 12 @ 4:19 pm:

    This poll is good for Foster fundraising efforts. It is also good for Biggert’s…


  13. - Mr Residency - Thursday, Sep 6, 12 @ 7:06 am:

    If the public became more aware of the fact that Biggert has NO plans to move into the new district, she would have even fewer supporters.


  14. - Rich - Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 9:16 pm:

    I’m disappointed in the Foster’s campaign compared to Duckworth. He doesn’t seem to be as out there in the streets etc as she is and her on line work is outstanding. Foster is meh. I know that it is ‘early’, but Biggert is an entrenched do-nothing Republican who just follows the party line and does just enough to get her name in the paper. She is pretty much just a paper-mache representative who should be easy to beat.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Kennedy's sometimes odd sense of humor
* New AFP-IL mailers target some who voted to override Rauner's tax hike veto
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Metra: More fare hikes, service reductions poss.....
* Illinois governor plans to block the revamp on .....
* Dying for better health care - Illinois Times..
* The bane of their existence - Illinois Times..
* CPS principals to receive budgets for 2017-2018.....
* Illinois Issues: The Prairie State’s Nuclear Wa.....
* Rauner tours northern Illinois flooding damage .....
* New Illinois Law Requires Health Insurance Comp.....
* Governor Signs "Charlie's Law" - WSIU..
* Illinois Is 5th Least-Expensive State For Energ.....


* 'Person of interest' in Vermont murder arrested in Illinois
* Attorney appointed to serve as next deputy mayor of Chicago
* EXCHANGE: Army pilot reunites with fighter copter in Dixon
* Suspect faces arraignment in kidnapping of China scholar
* Suspect faces arraignment in kidnapping of China scholar
* Robotic underwater lab helps track Lake Erie water toxins
* Bridge renamed for late Illinois State Police sergeant
* Galena to dedicate garden to friend of Lincoln's, Grant's
* 16-year-old from Minnesota ID'd as victim of John Wayne Gacy
* Rauner tours northern Illinois flooding damage

* Rasmussen was registered lobbyist before becoming Rauner staffer
* Milhiser gets report on powdery substance incident at Capitol
* Rasmussen was registered lobbyist before going to administration
* Under the Dome Podcast: Will schools get state funding before summer is over?
* Foundation gets legal OK to sell naming rights at state fair
* Private foundation gets legal go-ahead for naming-right sales
* ACLU: Illinois juvenile center unfairly seeks charges
* New Rauner aide fired for past tweets
* Rauner demands school funding bill so he can cut Chicago money
* Illinois budget gives temporary fix for public universities

* Sears stock jumps on Amazon deal
* McDonald's hunts for growth in a fast-food dead zone
* U of C to house undergrads at pricey off-campus building
* Rolling Stone says you should know this local singer
* Tour this home on 40 acres in La Porte


* O.J Simpson makes his case before parole board today
* New deputy mayor Rivkin has transportation experience
* Sears to sell Kenmore appliances on Amazon
* CUPP: Why Trump gets away with ‘Made in America’ hypocrisy
* Police: Armed robbers strike twice in 10 minutes on Near West Side
* Burglaries reported in West Town
* 2 drivers hurt in 3-car Edens crash in Skokie
* 2 kids among 15 shot Wednesday on South, West sides
* Minivans targeted in thefts on Far South Side
* 17-year-old girl shot to death in Hammond


* Don't get so excited. "As the Trump World Turns" is just getting started.
* How new faces could spark secondary revival for Bears
* Bulls Q&A: Expectations for Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn, that billboard and more
* In the name of speed: Autobahn Country Club lets Chicagoans be hooligans
* Cubs must get Kris Bryant to stop the stupid
* First Yusho to close on Saturday, but chef Matthias Merges seeking new home
* White Sox third-base job there for the taking for Matt Davidson
* Moon dust bag suburban woman bought for $995 could fetch millions at auction
* Why Bears' future depends on hard reset at quarterback
* Alabama man shoots 820-pound wild hog


» Plan For New CPS High School Puts Chinatown In Middle Of Racial Fray
» Illinois Issues: The Prairie State's Nuclear Waste Conundrum
» Aldermen And Angry Residents Reject Plan To Close Four South Side High Schools
» Cops Charged In Alleged Laquan McDonald Cover-Up ‘Comfortable’ With Latest Judge
» Illinois Sheriff IDs Another Victim Of John Wayne Gacy
» Cook County Sheriff's Office Pushes Back On Preckwinkle's Budget Cuts
» Is Illinois In Need Of A Constitutional Convention?
» Business Group Defunds CPS Anti-Violence Efforts To Fight On Another Front
» Berrios Defends ‘Flawed’ Property Tax Evaluations
» Court Filing: Downstate Youth Prison ‘Funnelling’ Kids Into Adult Prisons


* Rasmussen was registered lobbyist before becoming Rauner staffer
* Our View: Shopping local more important than ever
* Marc Thiessen: McConnell's health-care Hail Mary
* Kathleen Parker: Repeal and regroup
* Bernard Schoenburg: Klickna looks back on 44 years in education
* Milhiser gets report on powdery substance incident at Capitol
* Rasmussen was registered lobbyist before going to administration
* Under the Dome Podcast: Will schools get state funding before summer is over?
* Our View: Lawmakers need to get moving on school funding reform
* Foundation gets legal OK to sell naming rights at state fair


* Voegele Studio, Quality Paint Co. started in Highland in the 1920s
* ARC to add Saturday services, credit card payments
* 1931: Circus elephant shoves car through garage wall in O’Fallon
* Despite budget accord, schools may not see any money by start of classes
* PODCAST: Tom Kacich 07/20/17
* Sharing the bounty
* Play takes humorous look at marriage
* Council approves fire services contract with VA
* Gubernatorial candidate to host town hall
* Police Reports


* Sears cuts deal to sell its appliances on Amazon
* Abbott tops Street 2Q forecasts
* 5 questions about John McCain's brain cancer
* Metra: More fare hikes, service reductions possible
* Nine families relaunching Wynstone as private golf club of future in North Barrington

* Hultgren seeking applicants for STEM Schol...
* Hultgren meets five Yorkville workers who ...
* Editorial: We need answers on Trump and Ru...
* LIVE: US hearing on human rights and Duter...
* Chamber Exchanger: St. Charles Chamber Gol...
* Letter: Proposed health care reforms turn ...
* Randy Hultgren: US should remain on UN cou...
* Rep. Randy Hultgren constituents decry sec...
* Hultgren praises teamwork in fighting rece...
* Hultgren, Helsinki panel call on Trump to ...

* Sens. Graham, Durbin To Lead Bipartisan Dr......

* Tammy Duckworth: Trump is derelict in his ......

* Explaining The Rise In Hate Crimes Against Muslims In The U.S.
* The [Friday] Papers
* Former Battles front man Tyondai Braxton plays his first solo set in Chicago since 2006
* A teenager who disappeared in the 1970s identified as a victim of John Wayne Gacy, and other Chicago news
* Third Argyle Night Market Is This Evening: Lion Dance At 6pm
* Pensions Tier III: Your future 401K will likely not be protected under Article XIII, Section 5, the pension protection clause of the Illinois Constitution.
* White Sox rebuild progressing, but will Yankees will to win get in the way?
* 6th Ward Shred-a-thon tomorrow
* “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
* A Statement From City Pads On Wilson Men's Hotel Acquisition


* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

  
* OxygenOS Open Beta 20/11 for OnePlus 3 and 3T brings optimizations and bugfixes
* Best Buy's 'Black Friday in July' Sale Includes Deals on iPad Pro, MacBook Air, and BeatsX
* Viber acquires Chatter Commerce, the startup behind its shopping keyboard
* Dreamy new Apple patents imagine personalized 911 fingerprint calling, smart Siri dock with wireless charging
* Wi-Fi Mesh System Luma Launches $5/Month Service With VPN, Priority Tech Support, and More
* You Can Now Pay For iTunes and App Store Purchases With Your Phone Bill in Three More Countries
* T-Mobile adds more than 1m new subscribers for the 17th quarter running

* Moncada debuts in loss to Dodgers
* Sox Century: July 19, 1917
* Moncada hitless as White Sox fall to Dodgers
* Moncada embracing excitement of callup
* Dodgers 9, White Sox 1 (7½ innings): Sweet, merciful storm
* Moncada embracing excitement of callup
* Moncada hitless as White Sox fall to Dodgers


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller