* The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale has a new poll. The most interesting result is Gov. Pat Quinn’s approval ratings, which, according to this poll at least, are trending up…
Now I would like for you to tell me how Governor Pat Quinn is doing his job. Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job Governor Quinn is doing?
Strongly disapprove 27.0%
Somewhat disapprove 22.0%
Neither 2.9%
Somewhat approve 36.1%
Strongly approve 6.1%
Other/Don’t know 5.9
* From the pollster…
There are 42.2 percent who approve of Quinn’s performance, while 49.1 percent disapprove. A year ago, only 35.5 percent approved and 56.4 percent disapproved, according to a poll taken in October, 2011 by the Institute. Quinn’s approval rating is highest in the Chicago suburbs and lowest downstate.
“The big surprise in this poll is that Gov. Quinn’s popularity is actually getting better,” said David Yepsen, director of the Institute. “The state’s problems are headline news just about every day and people aren’t in a good mood about the state but they do feel better about the way Quinn is handling his job.”
“Still, his poll numbers remain underwater because more people disapprove of the job he’s doing than approve of it,” Yepsen said.
In the city of Chicago, 47.5 percent approve of the job he’s doing while 37.9 percent disapprove. In the suburbs, 50.3 percent approve and 43.7 percent disapprove while downstate, only 25.5 percent approve and 65.1 percent disapprove.
A lot more people disapproved of Quinn’s job performance than approved of it right up until the end of the 2010 election. He won anyway. I think it’s a template for Obama in the swing states. What does that mean? Paint your opponent as an untrustworthy, extreme right-winger.
And those aren’t great city numbers for Quinn, by the way. I think the suburbs are a bit high and Downstate is probably on the mark.
* Illinois’ “right track” numbers are edging up ever so slightly…
Also in 2011, 74.5 percent said the state was headed in the wrong direction and only 14.9 percent said it was headed in the right direction. Today, 69.9 percent say it’s going in the wrong direction and 19.6 percent say it’s going in the right direction.
So, a little bit of progress, but not nearly enough.
* We Ask America had President Obama’s lead at 17 points. This poll has it at 13. For the record, I trust my own pollster a lot…
• President Obama is supported for re-election by 47.1 percent of registered voters. Romney captures 33.8 percent. There are 16 percent undecided and 3.1 percent for someone else.
While that 13-point lead is a comfortable margin for the president and makes it likely Illinois is a safe state for him, that margin is less than the 24.9 percentage-point margin by which he won when he beat John McCain, 61.8 percent to 36.9 percent, in the state four years ago. It is also noteworthy that Obama’s support in Illinois has dropped below 50 percent.
• Key to President Obama’s lead may be his positive job approval ratings (55.6 percent approve either strongly or somewhat) and favorability ratings (53.7 percent view him either very or somewhat favorably). By contrast, not quite four in ten (38.7 percent) of respondents view Gov. Romney very or somewhat favorably.
Discuss.
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- Conservative Republican - Friday, Sep 14, 12 @ 9:26 am:
What is interesting about the Obama numbers in Illinois is his much better performance in blue states like NY and CA. I believe he has a 24% lead in NY, but you can check it out at realclearpolitics.com, a great site done by some Lincoln Park guys.
- walkinfool - Friday, Sep 14, 12 @ 9:39 am:
My first thought, when I saw your headline, was: “Call me when it goes over 40″
The improvement really surprized and pleased me. It shows many of our voters are smarter than the constant snipers assume.
- western illinois - Friday, Sep 14, 12 @ 9:41 am:
I find it somewhat strange that Quinn get higher marks in a poll with a lower Obama margin
(btw I go with Richs poll over this one)
Maybe Quinns attacks on public workers have helped him with Old White guys?
- Brendan - Friday, Sep 14, 12 @ 10:09 am:
It’s easy to make yourself look good when the General Assembly is out.
- just sayin' - Friday, Sep 14, 12 @ 10:17 am:
If Obama wins Illinois by less than 15 I’ll be shocked. Won’t be 25 point win again but still won’t be close.
- wordslinger - Friday, Sep 14, 12 @ 10:25 am:
–There are 41.6 percent who say the country is headed in the right direction and 49.8 percent who say it’s going in the wrong direction. A year ago, 19.2 percent said the country was headed in the right direction, while 71.4 percent said it was headed the wrong way.–
That’s a pretty big bump.
I find it hard to believe that 16% are undecided in the presidential election. Could it be those folks just don’t want to say, for whatever reasons?
- Palos Park Bob - Friday, Sep 14, 12 @ 10:51 am:
Romney-Ryan is spending NO money here. They only come here for fundraisers to take the money out of Illinois for other campaigns.
We can’t even get yard signs out of the campaign. They’ll only “sell” them to us.
This is a one sided fight. Romney could be up against Osama Bin Laden in Illinois and he’d be down by 5 points!
The only way it gets close is if Dem turnout is at historic lows, which may well be the case.
Hard Dems will show up to vote, but soft Dems have little reason to show up. They think Obama’s going to win Illinois, and they’re really not that crazy about Dem choices for the GA and Congress.
What this comes down to is whether there are enough angry suburbanites and downstaters to show up and vote, and enough interest in the state and local GOP organizations to turn out the vote.
Right now, in typical Illinois GOP fashion, Pat Brady is trying to block voter vault access to GOP township committeemen who’ve shown some independence in the primaries. I think he’d rather lose to Dems than to internecine challengers.
Cross is pretty much ignoring SW Cook candidates who’re “taking one for the team” in House races. He hasn’t even bothered to return phone calls, give ANY support, or even call simply to say “thanks” for diverting Dem resources to campaign against them.
Seems like the ILL GOP is really happy staying an impotent minority party in Illinois.
- Palos Park Bob - Friday, Sep 14, 12 @ 11:03 am:
It’s always interesting to see how Illinois voters are willing to support candidates about whose performance and policies they disagree.
A few years back I was involved in a school board election that coincided with a tax increase referendum. The referendum lost by 20 points, but the SCHOOL BOARD CANDIDATES WHO SUPPORTED THE TAX INCREASE WON IN A LANDSLIDE!
Many people vote for candidates because of their ethnicity, attractiveness, charisma and party affiliation even if they profoundly disagree with the candidates’ policies and are strongly dissatisfied with incumbent performance.
I guess that explains how voters still support Obama while they disagree with making America poorer, less influential in the world, weaker,opposed to economic growth, and less upwardly mobile.
Cashing in on this irony has perhaps been the greatest political acconplishment in this nations history!
- Charlie Leonard - Friday, Sep 14, 12 @ 11:21 am:
Word–
Word–This is a registered voter sample, not a likely voter sample, because most of the rest of the poll is dedicated to policy issues (to be released later). That we are certainly including more non-attentive respondents may help explain the big undecided/don’t know number.
- foster brooks - Friday, Sep 14, 12 @ 11:27 am:
Lisa madigan
- Dan Bureaucrat - Friday, Sep 14, 12 @ 11:58 am:
Quinn has publicly given himself the task of facing up to the state’s problems and making incredibly hard choices.
Whether you agree with him or not, and however you think pension reform will go down, I think many people can see and appreciate his efforts.
- Vandalia - Friday, Sep 14, 12 @ 12:41 pm:
I was one that was interviewed for this poll. I was waiting for the results. Looks like I was my opinions and a lot of my fellow Illinoisans match.
- Willie Stark - Friday, Sep 14, 12 @ 4:27 pm:
I’d like for the Simon Institute to be more forthcoming with its data and methodology - especially if they are going to use this as a means to garner attention and press coverage - and make claims about what Illinoisans think. And, presumably use it to instruct students.
So, for example, what was the gender, ethnicity, geographical, and age breakdowns (all helpful to know for judging the accuracy). How many Spanish-speakers were actually in the poll results? What % of respondents were cell-phone?
Why was the poll done over 7 days? Most polls of this nature are completed in 2-3.
Would suggest, too, that their data sets should be made available for the public. As best I can tell, that is not done.
Last, why did the poll take place in the middle of the Democratic Convention? Truly don’t get that at all. The RNC was done, but the DNC was still going on for 3 of the poll’s 7 days. The firm they use to do the call appears to be a market research firm, with no special expertise in political polling. NBC/WSJ polls, as an example, are usually conducted jointly by a Republican and Democratic pollster - which makes a little more sense because they do have relevant expertise (and would know better than to poll in the middle of one of the conventions).
I’m just a little skeptical about whether the Simon Institute folks really know what they are doing and don’t think there’s enough info to reach a conclusion. Maybe, maybe not.
- Charlie Leonard - Friday, Sep 14, 12 @ 7:16 pm:
Willie–
All our polls are made available to the public. Start here:
http://www.paulsimoninstitute.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=91&Itemid=263
Our surveys last 20+ minutes, and are deeply policy-oriented. Most polls of this nature (1250+ interviews @ 20 min apiece) are not generally, to my knowledge, completed in 2-3 days.
Since ours are policy polls, and the Obama-Romney question is something we tossed in (why do a poll in the fall of an election year and not ask?) we aren’t concerned about DNC/RNC conventions. These results were a snapshot, and nowhere do we make grandiose claims nor make predictions.
Our vendor is very experienced in completing phone interviews. We write the questionnaire ourselves (multiple PhDs are on the job), and don’t need to rely on commercial consultants.
Thanks for your interest.