SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Fun with numbers

Friday, Nov 9, 2012

* Be careful when you read stuff like this report from the Associated Press on Illinois’ exit polling data

When it comes to the idea of raising income taxes, about half felt that families making over $250,000 a year could afford to pay a little more. About four in 10 wanted to see tax rates frozen for everyone, while few backed the idea of an across-the-board tax hike.

If you look at the actual numbers, you’ll see this result is based on just 196 respondents. So, you cannot really trust that result. 1,009 people were polled Tuesday, so the high-number results were likely quite accurate. But stuff like this isn’t

Efforts to dismantle a 16-year ban on same-sex marriage in Illinois may be gaining support. Two years after the state legalized civil unions, more than half of voters said the state should legally recognize same-sex marriages. No issues involving same-sex marriage or civil unions were on the ballot.

Illegal immigrants wanting a chance to apply for permanent residency appear to have Illinois in their corner. More than 70% of voters say illegal immigrants working in the U.S. should be given a chance to apply for legal status.

196 respondents for the gay marriage question and just 188 respondents for the immigration question.

* This question had 377 respondents, so it’s probably worth a look

* Let’s compare those results to 2008

Definite slippage among Catholics, so the bishops should be somewhat happy. But Obama also slipped among white voters overall this year, so that may explain at least part of the Catholic result.

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


10 Comments
  1. - Anonymous - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 9:48 am:

    Might want to fix the typo in the header…


  2. - Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 9:50 am:

    I did, thanks. Although considering the results, “fin” has a certain panache to it. lol


  3. - The Captain - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 10:12 am:

    I’m struck by the results of how the gay rights issues played out. The respondents in the Illinois exit poll may not be large enough to be statistically significant but perhaps the stronger data point is the performance of the issue nationwide where Maine, Maryland and Washington state voted to legalize gay marriage while Minnesota defeated an amendment to outlaw it. It’s remarkable to me that in 2004 a key feature of the Rove playbook to re-elect the President was to have marriage amendments on the ballot to drive turnout among evangelicals. This year with the marriage amendment on the ballot an apparently very out of touch George Will referenced this particular ballot initiative while predicting Minnesota would go for Romney (Obama won by 8) because of evangelical turnout. In just 8 years gay marriage has become a mobilizing force in exactly the opposite direction, this is unbelievably interesting to me and maybe more surprising than seeing the Senate Dems take 40 seats.

    The must watch video spawned from all this comes courtesy of the campaign manager/executive director of Minnesota United for All Families. If you’ve ever worked on a campaign, Democrat or Republican, winning or losing you know this speech. It’s the one that happens at the end of election night and in this case it’s just shy of 2 in the morning and he’s telling his troops that they don’t expect to know the results until the next day. It has the very relatable “we’re having a conference call early tomorrow” moment followed by the completely exhausted staff groan that you know well. Then at about the 3 minute mark the communications director tells him that the AP just called the race and the whole place goes bananas. Fun to watch.


  4. - Demoralized - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 10:22 am:

    Considering the Bishops told their parisoners that they would go to hell if they voted for “certain” candidates it doesn’t surprise me that Obama lost some of the Catholic vote.


  5. - Demoralized - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 10:24 am:

    That should be “parishiners.”


  6. - Brendan - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 10:51 am:

    @Demoralized: no it should be “parishoners.”


  7. - yinn - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 11:14 am:

    *parishioner* Shoot, now that doesn’t look right, either, lol.


  8. - Anon - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 11:24 am:

    For Catholics who regularly attend church, Romney won by 20 points.


  9. - cermak_rd - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 11:46 am:

    Anon,

    Which might indicate to the good Bishops what they might want to work on (getting the BiTP quotient up).


  10. - Tony - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 12:16 pm:

    I’ve been saying this for years and I’ll say again now: THERE IS NO CATHOLIC VOTE. Look at national exit polling for the last several presidential elections. The Catholic vote almost exactly mirrors the overall national vote (Obama won among Catholics 50-48 this year.)

    It’s not 1950 anymore. Catholics are not a group of blue-collar, nothern industrial city-dwellers. They are an ethnically, economically, and regionally diverse population.

    And yes, Catholics who attend church regularly vote more conservatively — just like protestants who are regular church goers.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* A very good point
* Rauner outspent 2-1 on Chicago TV last month
* So far, it's still stuntish
* Politico report: Enyart slipping fast, Callis dumped
* *** UPDATED x1 - Another poll shows single digits *** Poll: Durbin with a single digit lead and slightly below 50
* A big swing and an even bigger miss
* Schneider up with first TV ad
* This year's best test of party strength
* A boldfaced lie
* Rate Gov. Quinn's new TV ad
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Samsung Level Headphone Series Review: Galaxy Owners Only Need Apply
        * Backflip Studios try to bring D&D gameplay to mobile
        * Why Apple’s mobile-payments system might actually work
        * Working 4.7-inch iPhone 6 leaked in photos and video, sort of
        * ASUS confirms low ZenWatch price – but is it as low as we’ve heard rumored?
        * Moduul gives your LG G Watch a pretty charging dock
        * Gear We Love: Twelve South HiRise holds your display, hides your gear

        * Thoma Bravo to Take Compuware Private in $2.5 Billion Deal
        * Sony Xperia Z3 Specifications Leaked
        * The Best and Worst Banks, Based on Checking Account Fees
        * Hackers May Have Stolen Credit Data From Home Depot
        * Office For iPad Monthly Subscriptions Announced
        * 'Never Be Bullied Into Silence': Robin Williams' Daughter Zelda Is Back on Twitter
        * Netflix Private Recommendations On Facebook Go Live

        * White Sox unburden themselves for September
        * White Sox Minor League Update: End of the regular season
        * Noesi looks to continue push toward season's end
        * Williams conveys important message to Little Leaguers
        * Podcast: Dunn Deal
        * Thoughts on the Adrian Nieto experiment
        * Breaks turn in Quintana's favor against Tigers


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * State accepting patient applications for medica.....
        * Chicago Schools Boost Route Security..
        * Illinois Amends the Human Rights Act to Provide.....
        * Illinois Governor: No Speed Increase on Interst.....
        * Different States Have Implemented DACA Very Dif.....
        * Mayor Emanuel and CPS CEO Byrd-Bennett Ring In .....
        * Two polls show Dick Durbin is in trouble. Don’t.....
        * Quinn: Eating crackers on minimum wage challenge..
        * School starts in Chicago with more guards linin.....
        * HSR: Illinois to invest $102 million in upgrade.....


        * School starts in Chicago with more safety guards
        * Climatologist says August warmed up in Illinois
        * Quinn: Eating crackers on minimum wage challenge
        * Illinois prisons dealing with backup power issues
        * State starts accepting medical marijuana requests
        * Illinois woman rescued after day stuck in mud
        * Fargo is site for national ag research center
        * Coroner: 1 person dies in Illinois house explosion
        * More storms roll through Midwest with hail, winds
        * Cubs honor Jackie Robinson West little leaguers

        * Quinn: Eating crackers on minimum wage challenge
        * Illinois prisons struggle with backup power issues
        * State starts accepting medical marijuana requests
        * Audit finds state lax in reviewing eligibility for children’s health insurance program
        * Does the governor need to live in the Executive Mansion?
        * Statehouse Insider: Hands off investments
        * State of unions: AFSCME wins some, loses some on outsourcing
        * State of unions: Domination of Illinois' workforce becomes campaign issue
        * State of unions: Lawmakers approved keeping some workers out of unions
        * State of Illinois posts applications for medical marijuana businesses

        * Hinshaw merger sets up law firm for more growth
        * Thoma Bravo to buy Compuware
        * Thoma Bravo makes its biggest deal yet
        * Medical marijuana applications start rolling in for Illinois
        * ADM selling chocolate business to Cargill


        * New school year brings changes to Gresham
        * Moms, dads get kids ready for school
        * Chicago school year begins with more safety guards
        * Ex-cop convicted of protecting crooks is back on public payroll
        * Ald. Pope rehired city worker who quit after sex harassment allegations
        * Ald. Pope rehired worker who quit after harassment allegations
        * CPS can cheer, but challenges remain
        * EDITORIAL: CPS can cheer, but challenges remain
        * Police: Man throws baby from vehicle, beats girlfriend and boy in domestic fight
        * Man charged with battery; police say he threw baby from vehicle, beat girlfriend and boy


        * Man sentenced to 30 years for dumping baby's body in trash
        * Ice bucket challenge heats up ALS donations
        * Not guilty pleas in red light camera bribery scheme
        * Fukudome lists Streeterville condo for $1.5 million
        * Trial to begin in killing of Indian Head Park teen
        * The Divvy blues: Bike-sharing program facing growing pains
        * Today is first day to apply for medical pot
        * CPS students -- and politicians -- head back to school
        * Fast food workers plan civil disobedience in minimum wage fight
        * Woman, 82, killed in Streator home explosion


        * Big Predators In Illinois Inspire New Law
        * WUIS/SJ-R Business Report: Casey's Expansion; Parsons In Court; Farmland Prices Fall
        * Opposition Research Key Part Of Political Dark Arts
        * Digging up political dirt? That's their job
        * State Starts Accepting Medical Marijuana Requests
        * Newborn Found Alive In Jacksonville Trash Bin
        * DNR Releases Fracking Rules
        * Listen to State Week - August 29, 2014
        * 'Belleville' The Movie Is NOT A Documentary
        * Journalist and doctor encourage honest conversations about death


        * Quinn: Eating crackers on minimum wage challenge
        * Illinois prisons struggle with backup power issues
        * State starts accepting medical marijuana requests
        * Couple’s wedding gifts help the community
        * Angela Bertoni: How to raise awareness of domestic violence in October
        * Catherine Rampell: Tech firms’ poor record of diversity
        * Audit finds state lax in reviewing eligibility for children’s health insurance program
        * Does the governor need to live in the Executive Mansion?
        * Our Opinion: Driving into floodwater a deadly practice
        * Angie Muhs: A debate in Springfield would send the right message from candidates


        * Jerry Frey
        * West Frankfort man arrested for residential burglary
        * Judge sentences man to five years after probation violation
        * 09-02-14 Greta Henry and Rick Santorum on Living Alternatives
        * Champaign Central High School tour
        * 09-02-14 Penny for Your Thoughts
        * Lindenwood, McKendree and SIUE see enrollment growth; SWIC drops
        * Enrollment up at local universities; down at SWIC
        * Flash Index dips in August
        * West Frankfort police warn of water bill phone scam


        * Vets get flights on WW II aircraft at Chicago Executive Airport
        * Cops: 2 more possible victims in teacher sex abuse case come forward
        * Family: Joan Rivers on life support
        * New video scoreboard, some seating for next season
        * New video allegedly shows beheading of U.S. reporter

        * Schock travels to India to promote humanit...
        * Congressman leads humanitarian trip to Ind...
        * Share Narendra Modi's resolve to fight pov...
        * Share Modi's resolve to fight poverty: US ...
        * Rep. Aaron Schock on humanitarian trip to ...
        * Aaron Schock finds a new reason to show of...
        * Lawmakers React to Iraq Journalist Death -...
        * Congressman Schock to stop by LaGrange Loc...
        * Ground Broken On Tenth Street Rail Corrido...
        * Chicago Housing Authority changes supervou...

        * Two polls show Dick Durbin is in trouble. ......
        * Two polls show Dick Durbin is in trouble. ......
        * Who Leaked Nude Photos Of Jennifer Lawrenc......
        * Who Leaked Nude Photos Of Jennifer Lawrenc......
        * Who Leaked Nude Photos Of Jennifer Lawrenc......

        * Ex-HP chief to speak at Downers Grove orga......
        * When Will Women Get Equal Pay for Equal Work?...

        * William Greider. Happy Labor Day, Mom.
        * Mark Anderson. Minimum wage gimmicks.
        * New book tells of lesbian affair between AP statehouse bureau chief and senator
        * Transparency group opens the books on Illinois school district spending
        * 175 Illegals Released to Sponsors in Cook, Lake, DuPage Counties
        * Thorner & O'Neil: Part 2 - Christian Persecution Alive and Thriving in America
        * Quinn's new ad: Old-time lawn mower and an old populist message [video]
        * Brad Schneider launches new ad [video]
        * Quinn's new ad: Old-time lawn mower and old message [video]
        * Fioretti: Signs Point To Impending Chicago Property Tax Hike


        * Like All Illinoisans, Veterans Are Hurting Under Pat Quinn
        * Governor Quinn Kicks-Off 2014-2015 School Year - Governor Visits Students on their First Day; Announces State is Moving Ahead with ‘Seal of Biliteracy’ Program
        * Governor Quinn Invests $102 Million in High-Speed Rail Upgrades on Chicago-St. Louis Line - Funding Will Improve Capacity, Safety on Joliet-Dwight Segment
        * Quinn Refuses to Answer New IDOT Questions
        * IDNR Delivers Revised Rules to Implement Hydraulic Fracturing Regulatory Act - Rules strengthened to ensure public participation, improve transparency, toughen penalties and protect the environment




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller