SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Fun with numbers

Friday, Nov 9, 2012

* Be careful when you read stuff like this report from the Associated Press on Illinois’ exit polling data

When it comes to the idea of raising income taxes, about half felt that families making over $250,000 a year could afford to pay a little more. About four in 10 wanted to see tax rates frozen for everyone, while few backed the idea of an across-the-board tax hike.

If you look at the actual numbers, you’ll see this result is based on just 196 respondents. So, you cannot really trust that result. 1,009 people were polled Tuesday, so the high-number results were likely quite accurate. But stuff like this isn’t

Efforts to dismantle a 16-year ban on same-sex marriage in Illinois may be gaining support. Two years after the state legalized civil unions, more than half of voters said the state should legally recognize same-sex marriages. No issues involving same-sex marriage or civil unions were on the ballot.

Illegal immigrants wanting a chance to apply for permanent residency appear to have Illinois in their corner. More than 70% of voters say illegal immigrants working in the U.S. should be given a chance to apply for legal status.

196 respondents for the gay marriage question and just 188 respondents for the immigration question.

* This question had 377 respondents, so it’s probably worth a look

* Let’s compare those results to 2008

Definite slippage among Catholics, so the bishops should be somewhat happy. But Obama also slipped among white voters overall this year, so that may explain at least part of the Catholic result.

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


10 Comments
  1. - Anonymous - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 9:48 am:

    Might want to fix the typo in the header…


  2. - Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 9:50 am:

    I did, thanks. Although considering the results, “fin” has a certain panache to it. lol


  3. - The Captain - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 10:12 am:

    I’m struck by the results of how the gay rights issues played out. The respondents in the Illinois exit poll may not be large enough to be statistically significant but perhaps the stronger data point is the performance of the issue nationwide where Maine, Maryland and Washington state voted to legalize gay marriage while Minnesota defeated an amendment to outlaw it. It’s remarkable to me that in 2004 a key feature of the Rove playbook to re-elect the President was to have marriage amendments on the ballot to drive turnout among evangelicals. This year with the marriage amendment on the ballot an apparently very out of touch George Will referenced this particular ballot initiative while predicting Minnesota would go for Romney (Obama won by 8) because of evangelical turnout. In just 8 years gay marriage has become a mobilizing force in exactly the opposite direction, this is unbelievably interesting to me and maybe more surprising than seeing the Senate Dems take 40 seats.

    The must watch video spawned from all this comes courtesy of the campaign manager/executive director of Minnesota United for All Families. If you’ve ever worked on a campaign, Democrat or Republican, winning or losing you know this speech. It’s the one that happens at the end of election night and in this case it’s just shy of 2 in the morning and he’s telling his troops that they don’t expect to know the results until the next day. It has the very relatable “we’re having a conference call early tomorrow” moment followed by the completely exhausted staff groan that you know well. Then at about the 3 minute mark the communications director tells him that the AP just called the race and the whole place goes bananas. Fun to watch.


  4. - Demoralized - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 10:22 am:

    Considering the Bishops told their parisoners that they would go to hell if they voted for “certain” candidates it doesn’t surprise me that Obama lost some of the Catholic vote.


  5. - Demoralized - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 10:24 am:

    That should be “parishiners.”


  6. - Brendan - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 10:51 am:

    @Demoralized: no it should be “parishoners.”


  7. - yinn - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 11:14 am:

    *parishioner* Shoot, now that doesn’t look right, either, lol.


  8. - Anon - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 11:24 am:

    For Catholics who regularly attend church, Romney won by 20 points.


  9. - cermak_rd - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 11:46 am:

    Anon,

    Which might indicate to the good Bishops what they might want to work on (getting the BiTP quotient up).


  10. - Tony - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 12:16 pm:

    I’ve been saying this for years and I’ll say again now: THERE IS NO CATHOLIC VOTE. Look at national exit polling for the last several presidential elections. The Catholic vote almost exactly mirrors the overall national vote (Obama won among Catholics 50-48 this year.)

    It’s not 1950 anymore. Catholics are not a group of blue-collar, nothern industrial city-dwellers. They are an ethnically, economically, and regionally diverse population.

    And yes, Catholics who attend church regularly vote more conservatively — just like protestants who are regular church goers.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Taxi industry suffers twin blows
* *** UPDATED x1 - Madigan launches new ad *** Schimpf vows to "destroy" AG Madigan
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's cable TV buys
* *** UPDATED x1 - Quinn response *** I'm confused about this concept
* Question of the day
* Bost oppo file includes 1986 dog-killing incident
* *** UPDATED x3 *** Quinn goes small (even tiny) ball... Promotes company that fought raising minimum wage
* Rauner's press conference adventures continue
* *** UPDATED x1 *** SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Event list
* Durbin and Oberweis at the Tribune ed board
* Ballot initiative money starts to flow
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Rauner hit on HomeBanc failure
* Why, thank you, spammers!
* "Brookport"
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Good morning!
* Quinn plays Stu Levine card
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Hands-on with Places, Waze’s latest feature
        * FM Radio app for Moto E and Moto G updated, now with Bluetooth support
        * Apple Watch is about more than technology: It's fashion
        * Motorola’s new DROID Turbo appears at GFX Bench
        * D-Link Connected Home Platform review: This is no way to build a smart home
        * Free is good: No-cost Panda Software tops AV-Test's rankings of antivirus software
        * Belkin's Thunderbolt 2 Express Dock HD adds much needed ports to any Mac

        * What the eBay Split Means for PayPal
        * EBay to Spin Off PayPal With New CEOs for Two Publicly Traded Companies
        * Intel’s Basis Takes Second Stab at Health Watch, With Peak
        * Six Ways to Power Through Writer's Block
        * News Corp. Buys Real Estate Listing Service Move for $950 Million
        * Apple's iPhone 6 clears hurdles in China, to hit mainland Oct. 17
        * Windows TH Moniker Spotted On Microsoft Landing Page

        * Voting underway to decide Hank Aaron Awards
        * Development of young core in '15 can define Chicago's future
        * Improved White Sox take important step in 2014
        * September call-ups report card: position players
        * Ushering in the world after Paul Konerko
        * Classy to the end, Konerko waves farewell to stellar career
        * After Konerko's finale, Hahn reflects on Sox season


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Exclusive: Republican Mayor Gary Manier of Wash.....
        * Exclusive: Washington Mayor Gary Manier, a Repu.....
        * Ridesharing company Uber to expand in Chicago`..
        * Emanuel pushes ban on asking about criminal record..
        * Hearings on anti-violence program can continue..


        * Boston City Council members weigh $25K pay raise
        * Man accused of threatening university students
        * Answers about lingering delays at Chicago airports
        * Bond denied for suspect in Chicago-area FAA fire
        * GOP opposition to school funding bill irks Manar
        * Illinois expects Lunt to return against Purdue
        * Durbin, Oberweis debate background checks for guns
        * Renovation work begins at Chicago's Wrigley Field
        * Heart attack victim finishes Quad Cities Marathon
        * Illinois sending marijuana approvals to patients

        * GOP opposition to school funding bill irks Manar
        * Durbin, Oberweis debate background checks for guns
        * Election 2014: Simon, Topinka spar over transparency, ethics in comptroller’s race
        * Statehouse Insider: There are a lot of campaign ads, in case you haven’t noticed
        * Quinn, Rauner address Illinois millennials
        * Burris an issue in Chicago trial
        * State schools seek carbon monoxide detectors
        * Ex-Sen. Ronald Burris an issue in Chicago trial
        * Gloria Steinem campaigns for Illinois Gov. Quinn
        * Flight disruption cancels Steinem stop with Quinn

        * University of Chicago creates new training program for non-profit and government leaders
        * Let's face it: Your data's as good as hacked. So, now what?
        * Boeing to shift 2,000 defense jobs out of Seattle jet hub
        * Valerie Jarrett stars in political drama -- on TV
        * Jewel-Osco hit again by data hack


        * The thug life runs deep
        * Chicago shutdown will cost airlines ‘hundreds of millions’: analyst
        * Man accused in FAA fire made 'tragic mistake,' lawyer says
        * Shake-up at Robert R. McCormick Foundation
        * Church hosts woman fighting deportation
        * Hackers might have Jewel-Osco customers credit card data — again
        * Prosecution rests in Joliet double murder trial
        * Top cab official arrested in vehicle title laundering case
        * Uber forges ahead with 420-job expansion contingent on veto
        * Pritzker Foundation gives scholarships to undocumented students


        * Man dead, 5 wounded in shootings since Monday
        * Trial starts in Naperville 'smart meter' case
        * Photos of suspects in Bentley Gold Coast robbery released
        * Charges filed after mom and daughter, 7, found killed on NW Side
        * State police: Motorist cited after fatal 4-vehicle crash on Ryan
        * Elgin cop fired after Facebook comment on police shooting
        * Woman pleads guilty in theft of agency client benefits cards
        * Autopsy: Man, 88, killed in South Side assault
        * Mother said son, 17, had texted her before being killed in Skokie
        * Pedestrian killed in Elk Grove Village


        * Aramark, CPS change plan to cut school janitors
        * 3,000 fewer students enroll in Chicago Public Schools
        * Meet Bishop Blase Cupich, Chicago's incoming archbishop
        * Cupich to be next Chicago archbishop
        * Mary Todd Lincoln And Spiritualism
        * Retirement Plan At Center Of Dispute In Ill. Treasurer's Race
        * Rehabbing vacant buildings, and the lives of those who fix them
        * Pensions: Vexing Illinois Politicians Since 1917
        * Mike Lawrence: The Compelling Challenge Of Rehabbing Illinois
        * Chicago Public Schools will get money for no-show students, again


        * Our Opinion: Job creation is a health priority in Sangamon County
        * GOP opposition to school funding bill irks Manar
        * Durbin, Oberweis debate background checks for guns
        * David McSweeney: Pension cost shift would lead to higher taxes
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Rauner campaign uses Michigan firm for calls
        * Election 2014: Simon, Topinka spar over transparency, ethics in comptroller’s race
        * Statehouse Insider: There are a lot of campaign ads, in case you haven’t noticed
        * Statehouse Insider: There are a lot of campaign ads, in case you haven’t noticed
        * Our Opinion: Another day, another embezzlement — but why?
        * Andy Shaw: Illinois voters deserve straight talk from Quinn, Rauner


        * Judge: No public defender for ex-Dixon comptroller
        * Sesser police, Mount Vernon children's home receive federal grants
        * Students' interests guide 'exploratory' classes
        * Road salt spending may double
        * Charges filed after man shot in arm
        * Jeff Hobbs: A testament to courage
        * Eldridge road to close for repairs
        * Gas leak forces closure of State Street in Bettendorf
        * Q-C region returns to fall
        * Marking a path for downtown


        * Music Notes: Former 'Idol' DeWyze plays suburban show
        * Dawn Patrol: Lombard man killed by wheel; Elgin cop fired over posts
        * Jews observe High Holy Days in Catholic church
        * Des Plaines plans to spend more, but not raise taxes
        * Metropolis' total village funding could exceed $5 million

        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Sends Letter...
        * Rep. candidate pushes to uphold marriage b...
        * Reps. Schakowsky and Waxman Introduce Bill...
        * Statement by Representative Jan Schakowsky...
        * FAA Rejects Call For New O'Hare Noise Stud...
        * Representatives Quigley, Duckworth, Schako...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement on...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement in...
        * U.S. House Passes Resolution Condemning An...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement on...

        * Durbin, Oberweis debate guns...
        * Durbin, Oberweis debate guns...
        * Quad City International Airport gets $500K......
        * Chicago air traffic control fire suspect a......
        * Chicago air traffic control fire suspect a......

        * FAA Calls for 30-Day Review of Security Pr......
        * Sen. Kirk Becomes Latest Republican To Sup......
        * Mark Kirk Returns To Senate Following Stroke...
        * Police: Man Convinced Iowa Town He Was a M......
        * Air Travel Slowly Recovers After Sabotage...

        * Examine Out This Wonderful School Tips These days!
        * Left-wing student event protests Rauner, embraces Quinn
        * How to Solve America's Debt Problem [video]
        * The Hunger Game
        * Dairy Queen Vs. Sandwich, Illinois
        * Sharpton Confronted Over FBI “Snitching” at the Congressional Black Caucus Confab
        * Whittle: Loch Ness Socialism [video]
        * Obama security allowed intruder farther into White House than previously admitted
        * Tribune: Hyde Park's retail revival is on a roll
        * Business First Fridays at Flecks Coffee


        * Rauner hits Quinn on tax hike timing
        * Taxpayer Red Alert: Quinn Doubles Down on Lame Duck Tax Hike
        * Fact Check: Pat Quinn’s Most Desperate False Attack Yet
        * Rauner to Madigan: No lame duck tax hike after I win
        * Governor Quinn and Uber Announce Major Chicago Headquarters Expansion - Innovative Ridesharing Company to Add 420 Jobs by End of 2016




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller