SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Fun with numbers

Friday, Nov 9, 2012

* Be careful when you read stuff like this report from the Associated Press on Illinois’ exit polling data

When it comes to the idea of raising income taxes, about half felt that families making over $250,000 a year could afford to pay a little more. About four in 10 wanted to see tax rates frozen for everyone, while few backed the idea of an across-the-board tax hike.

If you look at the actual numbers, you’ll see this result is based on just 196 respondents. So, you cannot really trust that result. 1,009 people were polled Tuesday, so the high-number results were likely quite accurate. But stuff like this isn’t

Efforts to dismantle a 16-year ban on same-sex marriage in Illinois may be gaining support. Two years after the state legalized civil unions, more than half of voters said the state should legally recognize same-sex marriages. No issues involving same-sex marriage or civil unions were on the ballot.

Illegal immigrants wanting a chance to apply for permanent residency appear to have Illinois in their corner. More than 70% of voters say illegal immigrants working in the U.S. should be given a chance to apply for legal status.

196 respondents for the gay marriage question and just 188 respondents for the immigration question.

* This question had 377 respondents, so it’s probably worth a look

* Let’s compare those results to 2008

Definite slippage among Catholics, so the bishops should be somewhat happy. But Obama also slipped among white voters overall this year, so that may explain at least part of the Catholic result.

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


10 Comments
  1. - Anonymous - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 9:48 am:

    Might want to fix the typo in the header…


  2. - Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 9:50 am:

    I did, thanks. Although considering the results, “fin” has a certain panache to it. lol


  3. - The Captain - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 10:12 am:

    I’m struck by the results of how the gay rights issues played out. The respondents in the Illinois exit poll may not be large enough to be statistically significant but perhaps the stronger data point is the performance of the issue nationwide where Maine, Maryland and Washington state voted to legalize gay marriage while Minnesota defeated an amendment to outlaw it. It’s remarkable to me that in 2004 a key feature of the Rove playbook to re-elect the President was to have marriage amendments on the ballot to drive turnout among evangelicals. This year with the marriage amendment on the ballot an apparently very out of touch George Will referenced this particular ballot initiative while predicting Minnesota would go for Romney (Obama won by 8) because of evangelical turnout. In just 8 years gay marriage has become a mobilizing force in exactly the opposite direction, this is unbelievably interesting to me and maybe more surprising than seeing the Senate Dems take 40 seats.

    The must watch video spawned from all this comes courtesy of the campaign manager/executive director of Minnesota United for All Families. If you’ve ever worked on a campaign, Democrat or Republican, winning or losing you know this speech. It’s the one that happens at the end of election night and in this case it’s just shy of 2 in the morning and he’s telling his troops that they don’t expect to know the results until the next day. It has the very relatable “we’re having a conference call early tomorrow” moment followed by the completely exhausted staff groan that you know well. Then at about the 3 minute mark the communications director tells him that the AP just called the race and the whole place goes bananas. Fun to watch.


  4. - Demoralized - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 10:22 am:

    Considering the Bishops told their parisoners that they would go to hell if they voted for “certain” candidates it doesn’t surprise me that Obama lost some of the Catholic vote.


  5. - Demoralized - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 10:24 am:

    That should be “parishiners.”


  6. - Brendan - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 10:51 am:

    @Demoralized: no it should be “parishoners.”


  7. - yinn - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 11:14 am:

    *parishioner* Shoot, now that doesn’t look right, either, lol.


  8. - Anon - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 11:24 am:

    For Catholics who regularly attend church, Romney won by 20 points.


  9. - cermak_rd - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 11:46 am:

    Anon,

    Which might indicate to the good Bishops what they might want to work on (getting the BiTP quotient up).


  10. - Tony - Friday, Nov 9, 12 @ 12:16 pm:

    I’ve been saying this for years and I’ll say again now: THERE IS NO CATHOLIC VOTE. Look at national exit polling for the last several presidential elections. The Catholic vote almost exactly mirrors the overall national vote (Obama won among Catholics 50-48 this year.)

    It’s not 1950 anymore. Catholics are not a group of blue-collar, nothern industrial city-dwellers. They are an ethnically, economically, and regionally diverse population.

    And yes, Catholics who attend church regularly vote more conservatively — just like protestants who are regular church goers.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Afternoon updates
* Hospitals back removal of income tax sunsets
* The other strategy
* *** UPDATED 1x *** Quinn onboard; Rauner latches onto term limits proposal
* Because Illinois is a real battleground state
* Quinn dodges Rahm question on "Morning Joe"
* Morning Shorts
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Hulu Plus app now casts to PS3, PS4, Xbox One
        * Sony brings Lifelog, SmartBand fitness apps to non-Sony Androids
        * What will become of Google+?
        * Calling all filmmakers: Do you have what it takes to create Nokia’s next video?
        * Hidden WP8.1 USB settings uncovered with Bing’s help
        * Our favourite 5 new Windows Phone apps of the week
        * Apple, Samsung bicker over jury verdict form

        * Is net neutrality dying? Has the FCC killed it? What comes next? Here’s what you need to know
        * iPod Ad Impressions Are Actually Higher Than BlackBerry And Windows Phone Devices
        * Facebook Acquires Company Behind “Moves” Fitness And Activity Tracker App
        * The Feeling Skin Is An iPhone Battery Case And More
        * Google+ Isn't Dead, It's Just Overexposed
        * Mobile Payments Are An Area Of Interest To Apple, According To Tim Cook
        * Mac Pro Shipping Estimates Are Improving

        * Detroit Tigers 7, Chicago White Sox 4: Scherzer Stops Sox
        * Quintana solid, but drops finale in Detroit
        * Johnson starts homestand opener vs. Rays
        * Quintana solid, but drops finale in Detroit
        * Walks working against the White Sox' plans for the bullpen
        * Viciedo maturing at the plate
        * Beckham returns, thrust into starting lineup


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Sosnowski, other state leaders respond to Gov. .....
        * Minimum- and low-wage workers react to Gov. Pat.....
        * Governor Pat Quinn press conference: Western Il.....
        * Tap on a topic to save it here - BreakingNews.com..


        * Man charged with giving girlfriend HIV
        * Man charged with giving girlfriend HIV
        * Ill. jobs screened for political ties after hiring
        * Ex-Marine sentenced to die in sailor's slaying
        * Quinn: Obama library should get private funds too
        * Twice-fired police chief charged with battery
        * Illinois governor praises work of slain doctor
        * Illinois researchers to study Washington mudslide
        * Severe storms loom across central US this weekend
        * Severe storms loom across central US this weekend

        * Bankruptcy court trial sought over $3.8 million paid to Parsons
        * Amazon takes hit in states with online tax, study says
        * State audit: Police training money misspent
        * Audit: Treasurer's office has 30 guns not given to police
        * Madigan: 'Misunderstanding' on Obama library vote
        * Madigan re-elected to lead state Democratic party
        * Hastert, other state Republicans supporting immigration reform
        * Lawsuit seeks investigation of hiring under Quinn
        * Patronage allegations give Rauner fodder in race against Quinn
        * Bill would get state police cruisers on road

        * Chicago City Council committee OKs plastic bag ban
        * Feds to review Northwestern bid to unionize
        * United stock takes biggest tumble since October 2011
        * Next up for CPS: Barack Obama College Prep
        * Bronze statue of Roger Ebert unveiled at Ebertfest


        * Reject firefighter staffing bill
        * Chicago man charged with giving girlfriend HIV; wife died of AIDS
        * Trio charged with robbing stores, gas stations in city, suburbs
        * His wife died of AIDS, now Chicago man is charged with giving girlfriend HIV
        * Pedicab operators say a crackdown could put them out of business
        * Robo-calls on pension reform bill raise Rauner-Rahm rift
        * Truck fatally strikes semi driver taking picture of accident
        * Semi fatally strikes pedestrian in Noble Square
        * Police: Pedestrian fatally struck by semi in Noble Square
        * Editorial: How to improve graduation rates


        * Dutch man charged in Chicago with selling drugs for bitcoins
        * 1 dead, 4 injured in shootings
        * Ravinia sales brisk, but wait long, as ticket-buying opens
        * New Chicago high school to be named for Obama
        * Lawyers for men charged in NIU hazing death challenge law
        * Coach fired in Maine West hazing scandal fails to win back job
        * Illinoisans have lowest home-state opinions in the U.S., poll says
        * Mom on death penalty for Torrez: ""I only wish I could do it myself"
        * Illinois graduated income tax vote next week
        * Illinois graduated income tax vote next week


        * Secret recording shows Uber's efforts to poach Chicago cabbies
        * Springfield Ordinances for Lincoln's Funeral Unearthed
        * Illinois Finally Gets 'No Child Left Behind' Waiver
        * Chicago aldermen pass plastic bag ban
        * City Council panel passes plastic bag ban
        * Marian Anderson Tribute - 'The Concert That Shook The Establishment'
        * Organic foods sold by Walmart create fear among some organic farmers and farm advocates
        * Senator Kirk joins Revolution in backing Small BREW Act
        * Listen To State Week - April 18, 2014
        * Earth Friendly Event In Springfield This Weekend


        * State jobs screened for political rules after hires
        * Quinn: Obama library should get private funds too
        * Rauner skips GOP event over pastor's comments
        * Quinn backs term limits for constitutional officers
        * Rauner wants Quinn to release hiring documents
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Barr borrowed late in sheriff campaign to keep ads flowing
        * Cristal Thomas: Protecting Illinois’ pregnant workers shouldn’t be a heavy lift
        * Remap group says it is not political
        * Quinn clout hiring faces scrutiny
        * Judge OKs use of lawmaker's post-arrest statement


        * UPDATED: Passenger train hits farm truck near Savoy
        * ISU rehires fired grounds worker
        * Lawnmowers taken from Lowe's
        * Train hits farm implement near Savoy
        * Updated: New Central High School site proposed
        * I-74 bridge meeting draws large crowd
        * Updated: Ebert knew about plans for statue
        * Robber sentenced to 10 years in prison
        * Three charged with Social Security fraud
        * Sports Talk 4-24-14


        * The 10th District money race
        * Aurora Democrat calls out IHSA
        * Lawyers: Ill. hazing law vague, unconstitutional
        * Ill. House OKs lower-cost hunting bill for seniors
        * Quinn’s running mate takes new consulting job

        * Rep. Lipinski Reviews Operations at Hanson...
        * Lipinski announces 2014 Congressional Art ...
        * Lipinski seeks artistic submissions - The ...
        * Lemont VFW honors Vietnam veterans - Subur...
        * Lipinski Votes to Protect the Paychecks of...
        * Meet the 8 House Dems who don't co-sponsor...
        * Jeff Vorva's Editor's Notebook: In this ca...
        * Rep. Lipinski to Honor Vietnam Veterans at...
        * Rep. Lipinski Helps Secure Funds for Safet...
        * Rep. Lipinski Reviews Operations at Hanson...

        * Loading Koch Industries Website Too Many T......
        * Maryland and DC among worst for food aller......
        * Cleveland State University to reestablish ......
        * Convicted political boss Al Sanchez runnin......
        * Candidates make last filings for local, st......

        * Illinois Lt. Gov. Simon opposes pension le......
        * Dillard Odd Man Out on Pension Deal Reaction...
        * Sen. Mark Kirk sides with Rauner on pensio......
        * Governor's race infighting threatens pensi......
        * SCHOONERS - Home of Everyone's Favorite Be......

        * Major Oil & Gas Firm To List Drilling Chemicals
        * Durbin Says FDA E-Cigarette Regulations Don't Go Far Enough
        * Herbalife Punished 600 Distributors For Medical Claims: ABC News
        * Harmon To Push For Graduated Tax Vote Next Week
        * Madigan blames Tea Party for $100M Obama Library re-vote
        * Oberweis remains committed to border security, immigration law enforcement
        * One In Ten U.S. Bridges In Urgent Need Of Repair: Report
        * Chicago Plastic Bag Ban Clears Committee, Heads To Full City Council
        * Quinn Announces Support For Term Limits For Statewide Lawmakers
        * Chicago High School To Be Named After Obama


        * Cases of Chlamydia, Gonorrhea and HIV on the Rise Nationally - Residents Are Encouraged to Get Tested for STDs
        * State Insurance Regulators Urge Property Owners to Review/Add Coverage to Protect from Floods & Water Damage - Most homeowners’ policies do not cover flood damage
        * Governor Quinn Statement on New Proposal to Enact Term Limits for Constitutional Officers
        * Statement from Governor Quinn on the Passing of Dr. Jerry Umanos
        * Governor Quinn Proclaims “Wrigley Field Day” - Home of the Chicago Cubs Turns 100 Years Old Today




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller