* Robin Kelly’s campaign has a new poll…
* From the pollster…
The following are key findings from a survey of 400 likely voters in the February 26th special primary election. Interviews were conducted on February 4-5 and respondents were reached on both landlines and cell phones. Results for the survey carry a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval.
• Kelly moves into first place. After sitting behind both Halvorson and Hutchinson in an early January survey, Kelly now leads the pack at 26 percent of likely voters.
o Kelly has wide base of support. Kelly’s lead is broad as she expands her support in every corner of the district. She now leads among African American voters across the district and throughout Cook County—both in the city and the suburbs.
o Kelly’s leadership on gun control resonating. Among those voters who volunteer that they have heard Kelly’s message on preventing gun violence and taking on the NRA, she wins a whopping 65 percent of the vote.
* On guns…
• The NRA remains toxic in IL-2. Just 16 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of the NRA here, with 60 percent holding a negative impression. No voting bloc—racial, regional, or ideological has a favorable impression of the group. Even self described conservatives have a negative view by a 2:1 margin.
More troubling for Hutchinson and Halvorson is that a solid majority (56 percent) of voters say they would be “not at all likely” to support a candidate who they agreed with on a majority of issues, but who earned an A from the NRA. Another 15 percent said they would only be “a little likely” to support such a candidate.
• Hutchinson’s true record on guns not out yet. This week’s Chicago Tribune story detailing Senator Hutchinson’s responses on her NRA questionnaire that earned her an A rating has not yet penetrated the public’s perception. More than one in five (21 percent) of voters who say they would not support an A-rated candidate are currently voting for Hutchinson—support that is likely to disappear as the campaign continues.
• Halvorson’s standing upside down. Halvorson’s vote share declined from 25 to 22 percent over the last month. While not a precipitous fall, Halvorson’s personal standing has taken a serious hit in recent weeks. In January, 2nd District primary voters viewed Halvorson favorably by a 34 – 18 percent margin. Halvorson’s negative standing has more than doubled in that time (29 percent favorable – 37 percent unfavorable). Her decline among African Americans is particularly steep.