LIVE session coverage...
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Kelly poll has her leading

Wednesday, Feb 6, 2013

* Robin Kelly’s campaign has a new poll…

* From the pollster…

The following are key findings from a survey of 400 likely voters in the February 26th special primary election. Interviews were conducted on February 4-5 and respondents were reached on both landlines and cell phones. Results for the survey carry a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval.

• Kelly moves into first place. After sitting behind both Halvorson and Hutchinson in an early January survey, Kelly now leads the pack at 26 percent of likely voters.

o Kelly has wide base of support. Kelly’s lead is broad as she expands her support in every corner of the district. She now leads among African American voters across the district and throughout Cook County—both in the city and the suburbs.

o Kelly’s leadership on gun control resonating. Among those voters who volunteer that they have heard Kelly’s message on preventing gun violence and taking on the NRA, she wins a whopping 65 percent of the vote.

* On guns…

• The NRA remains toxic in IL-2. Just 16 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of the NRA here, with 60 percent holding a negative impression. No voting bloc—racial, regional, or ideological has a favorable impression of the group. Even self described conservatives have a negative view by a 2:1 margin.

More troubling for Hutchinson and Halvorson is that a solid majority (56 percent) of voters say they would be “not at all likely” to support a candidate who they agreed with on a majority of issues, but who earned an A from the NRA. Another 15 percent said they would only be “a little likely” to support such a candidate.

• Hutchinson’s true record on guns not out yet. This week’s Chicago Tribune story detailing Senator Hutchinson’s responses on her NRA questionnaire that earned her an A rating has not yet penetrated the public’s perception. More than one in five (21 percent) of voters who say they would not support an A-rated candidate are currently voting for Hutchinson—support that is likely to disappear as the campaign continues.

• Halvorson’s standing upside down. Halvorson’s vote share declined from 25 to 22 percent over the last month. While not a precipitous fall, Halvorson’s personal standing has taken a serious hit in recent weeks. In January, 2nd District primary voters viewed Halvorson favorably by a 34 – 18 percent margin. Halvorson’s negative standing has more than doubled in that time (29 percent favorable – 37 percent unfavorable). Her decline among African Americans is particularly steep.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


28 Comments
  1. - The Captain - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 1:49 pm:

    The underlying mechanics of this race have been favoring Kelly for a while now (money, earned media, paid media by proxy) so this isn’t a total surprise. The key findings on the gun issue are the first numbers I’ve seen for this district though and they make it clear just how difficult it will be for Halvorson or Hutchinson to overcome their natural disadvantage on this top hot button issue.


  2. - Don't Worry, Be Happy - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 1:51 pm:

    The movement in the poll makes sense, but the caveat is that the top three are all within the margin of error.


  3. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 1:59 pm:

    It’s tied up in that poll. This will be a small turn out election. That favors Halvorson


  4. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 2:09 pm:

    What I want to know is who are the 5% of the people that support Reynolds? Sheesh.


  5. - Chicago Cynic - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 2:25 pm:

    This race is going to come down to Kelly and Toi. It’s a tossup from there, but if I had to guess, I’d give a slight edge to Kelly.


  6. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 2:36 pm:

    Is the NRA or ISRA going to put any real money into Halvorson?

    Bloomberg’s crew is pounding her. And other candidate are watching.

    It’s a brave new world after Citizens United. The chump change that the NRA has spent in the past ain’t going to cut it in the future.


  7. - Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 3:08 pm:

    Pretty big Margin-Of-Error in that poll. If anything, as many of have said for a couple weeks now, this is going to be a 3-Horse Race pretty much to the finish. But NY City Mayor Bloomberg’s nightly Super PAC Ad slamming Ms. Halvorson (and her past posture with the NRA on gun rights) does now appear to be taking enough of a toll on her that she really needs to counteract it with some solid TV Ad of her own–and REAL soon, or she may indeed face the prospect of fading-off onto a slippery slope and a distant 3rd….


  8. - Etown - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 3:26 pm:

    Halvorson is getting what she deserves from Bloomberg. She was able to get away with her cozy relationsip with the gun guys while in Senate and her brief stint in Congress but she made her bed and now she has to sleep in it.


  9. - bored now - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 3:29 pm:

    VanillaMan: lower turnout favors those who are organized, and — more specifically — those who have a larger volunteer core. that is robin kelly. it’s not just issues. robin has such a phenomenal reputation in the 2nd CD that other people’s volunteers are actually robin volunteers (which isn’t exactly appreciated by those “other” people)…


  10. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 3:34 pm:

    Is Ald. Beale in a position to cut a deal?

    If this poll is accurate, Beale seems out of the running for #1, but holding enough support to make the difference.

    Youse gots to give to gets. Having 10% support doesn’t have any value once the votes get cast.


  11. - cowboyoga - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 3:49 pm:

    I suspect from the numbers and the source that these are results from intensive push-poll calling we’ve been receiving in the district these past two weeks. Therefore I think the results are suspect.


  12. - titan - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 4:26 pm:

    The Bloomberg backed SuperPAC ads against Halvorson are absolutely brutal. If those continue ananswered, she’s likely toast (particularly if no other TV ad money flows into the race).
    It is like the Blago/Topinko race where the only ads were the “What was she thinking?” ads (but with no other political ads for any other offices to dilute the message).


  13. - ZC - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 4:46 pm:

    Yeah let’s hold off here too much until we get a more independent polling outfit report, or Halvorson and Hutchinson conspicuously fail to release their internal polling.


  14. - Votecounter - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 4:49 pm:

    We know one thing Halversons #’s were solid she is in the 20 something % range and has been from the beginning. what is the turnout and where will it come from?


  15. - Boone Logan Square - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 5:56 pm:

    The Kelly campaign’s interpretation of the poll tips how the rest of this campaign will play out.

    It’s all about the NRA from here to Election Day.


  16. - Kwark - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 6:00 pm:

    When will the press & other candidates start honing in on Kelly’s character issues? It is amazing to me that Kelly has had a free pass on her association with Lexi Giannoulias. Some of the Giannoulias people were big contributors to Kelly in her 12/31 report. Who are those people? That must be part of why Preckwinkle is staying away from Kelly.


  17. - Come On Now - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 6:25 pm:

    oh come on Kwark, Hutchinson really does not want to get into a character debate with her “activities” in Springfield!


  18. - Church Lady - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 6:44 pm:

    I have to AGREE with Come On Now.


  19. - bored now - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 6:44 pm:

    robin kelly’s character is unimpeachable. if toi and her peeps want to get into a character debate, i strongly suspect that robin (or, more accurately) and her peeps would welcome that debate…


  20. - Kasich Walker, Jr. - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 7:29 pm:

    Who conducted the poll?

    I had a few calls requesting that I participate in a poll. I asked what was in it for, and the caller said, “A chance to have your voice heard.”

    I asked who was paying the caller to hear my voice, but the caller wouldn’t identify who was paying, so I said no thanks.

    Who performed the poll cited here? Give the thread title, I assume Kelly’s campaign paid for the poll showing her leading.


  21. - Kasich Walker, Jr. - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 7:31 pm:

    My typing is getting worse, so I’ll try again:

    Who conducted the poll?

    I had a few calls requesting that I participate in a poll. I asked what was in it for me, and the caller said, “A chance to have your voice heard.”

    I asked who was paying the caller to hear my voice, but the caller wouldn’t identify who was paying, so I said no thanks.

    Given the thread title, I assume Kelly’s campaign paid for the poll showing her leading.


  22. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 7:37 pm:

    Kasich, how are we doing on Peotone?

    Any candidate want to stand up and sell that good farmland the state owns and be done with that boondoggle?


  23. - Kasich Walker, Jr. - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 8:40 pm:

    I’m guessing none of the top 6 or 7 candidates will speak out against it, but will use it like JJ,Jr. did to “explain” why things aren’t goin’ like they want after a few years in office — because there is no Int; airport a few minutes from every home in the 2nd CD.


  24. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 9:02 pm:

    K, Peotone is a huge state investment in land. With Trips gone, we should try to unload.

    Who’s with us?


  25. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 10:04 pm:

    @word-

    There’s few hundred property owners in eastern Will County you could count on. The Governor directs the activities of the agency in control of the situation, though, and he made that “as soon as humanly possible” statement.


  26. - DoubleDown - Thursday, Feb 7, 13 @ 1:48 am:

    Wonder which candidate’s will be here?

    2nd Congressional Candidate Forum in Peotone

    The resignation of Jesse Jackson, Jr. means residents of the Illinois Second Congressional District will elect a new representative during the April 2013 municipal election.

    Primary elections will be held February 26, 2013. Voters can attend a candidate forum in Peotone at Peotone High School organized by The Will County Farm Bureau, The Cook County Farm Bureau, Shut This Airport Nightmare Down (STAND), Will County Board Member Judy Ogalla, and Kankakee County Commissioner John Howard.

    All candidates have been invited.

    Forum Details:
    Saturday, February 9, 2013
    Peotone High School, 605 W. North St., Peotone
    Doors open at 2pm, forum begins at 2:30pm


  27. - Ellen Beth Gill - Thursday, Feb 7, 13 @ 8:17 am:

    I’m not interested in helping any of the NRA candidates, but CD polls are notoriously incorrect. The safer bet is that this is anyone’s race. If you want any particular candidate, you had better get out there and work.


  28. - South Suburban (Chicago area) Voter - Friday, Feb 8, 13 @ 1:08 pm:

    I am an African American, living in the south surburbs of Chicago. I was contacted for this R Kelly poll. They calimed to be from Central Reseach out of Hudson, FL. The poll conducter seemed to try to steer people to Kelly. They never mentioned R Kelly, but from the conversation they seemed to pause with a sort of dislike when I told them I was voting for Debbie Halvorson, and that my family would definitly vote in the upcoming primary for her.

    The poll targeted Debbie by asking numerous questions about the ongoing commericals against the NRA and her stance on gun control. And after 4-5 minutes of questions on gun control will you still vote for Halvorson. And, of course I said yes.

    Although all of the candidates appear to be qualified I believe Debbie Halvorson’s qualifications as a congresswoman are more geared toward the congressional seat at hand. The only exception is from congressman Mel Reynolds who has no chance at all to win.

    Bottom line - if there is to be a poll of the candidates let’s have a fair poll, not one that is bias to one candidate to make it appear the candidate is winning. That’s a show of desperation, in my oppinion.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Question of the day
* Rezko still claims he was wrongfully convicted
* Ignoring a huge public health crisis
* ComEd/Exelon: $1 Billion Guaranteed Profits On $2.4 Billion In Programs
* The great salesman
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Today's quotable
* Museum could re-open in July
* Rahm kinda walks it back
* This just in... Madigan on Rauner budget stopgap: "This is not something that's going to happen today"
* Caption contest!
* Closing Illinois’ Nuclear Facilities Will Devastate Our Economy and Environment
* Plug pulled on Exelon bill
* Medical marijuana bill clears the House
* Dot points on the new GOP school plan
* First time for everything: Rauner veto overridden in House
* Rauner does about-face, proposes stopgap budget
* *** LIVE *** Session Coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today's edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Zauba may have teased model number of Galaxy Note 7 edge
* Mophie debuts Juice Pack Wireless for iPhone 6 onwards
* Qualcomm introduces the Snapdragon Wear 1100 processor for wearables
* Verizon Galaxy S5 is finally updated to Marshmallow
* Amazon US getting OnePlus 2 direct from the company, already in UK
* Apple TV App Store Now Hides Downloaded Apps From Top Charts
* Instagram officially announces its new business tools

* Ray of hope: White Sox aided Draft prospect
* White Sox call on Latos to halt 7-game skid
* Quintana excellent, out-dueled by Harvey in opener
* Quintana excellent, outdueled by Harvey in opener
* White Sox are built to last in AL Central race
* After Melky bunt, Frazier takes blame for missed chance
* Quintana excellent, out-dueled by Harvey in opener

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* OUR VIEW: Voter registration change makes perfe.....
* No vote today on Rauner plan to keep schools op.....
* Lawmakers send Rauner plan to reopen Illinois p.....
* Speaker Madigan appears to have little to fear .....
* Illinois Democrats defer governor's budget ahea.....
* Rauner Pitches Stopgap Budget; Democrats Say No.....
* Madigan, Cullerton rebuff Rauner request for sh.....
* Rauner wants temporary budget fix amid stalemat.....
* Emanuel regrets bringing up Rauner's wife in po.....
* Illinois Governor Wants Temporary Budget Fix Am.....


* Garland gives commencement address at old high school
* Chicago, private company to turn wastewater into fertilizer
* Police promise more West Side patrols as shootings erupt
* Medical pot advocates cheer Illinois governor's about-face
* Ex-fire chief gets jail time for stealing from department
* 15-year-old girl shot dead on Chicago's Lake Shore Drive
* State warns of toxic algae forming on Illinois lakes, rivers
* Illinois budget chief: 2nd year without deal 'devastating'
* 7-year-old Chicago girl dies in tractor accident
* Illinois budget negotiations appear to be going nowhere

* Illinois State Museum to reopen July 2 if $5 admission fee gets approval
* Democrats won't take up temporary state budget Tuesday
* Q&A: Illinois heading toward another year without state budget
* Lawmakers send Rauner plan to reopen Hardin County prison camp
* House OKs measure to study lead in Illinois drinking water
* Rauner pushes for interim budget ahead of Tuesday leader meeting
* Another year without a budget? Sure looking that way
* Chicago gets some pension relief as Rauner veto overridden
* Illinois Senate OKs bill to give unpaid leave to sexual abuse victims
* Senate passes bill to reopen State Museum, create fairgrounds foundation

* Illinois House OKs plan to expand medical marijuana program
* 6 killed, dozens wounded over bloody Chicago holiday weekend
* Chicago's $2M lawsuit settlement keeps Emanuel off stand
* Chicago's $2 million lawsuit settlement keeps Emanuel off stand
* Buffalo Wild Wings to begin testing beer to go this fall


* Buddy Guy, Skrebneski, Second City, among Fifth Star honorees
* Keep up to date on state budget news
* Barrington’s Ben LeCompte relishes chance with hometown Bears
* Emanuel condemns weekend bloodbath as “unacceptable”
* Tyler Perry joins ‘Turtles’ franchise — a far cry from ‘Madea’
* Rauner makes last-minute push for temporary budget
* Spare us social media outrage over death of gorilla Harambe
* In victory, Emanuel apologizes to Rauner for comment about wife
* Riverside police: Charges filed against “prolific” burglar
* Obama guidance, press schedule May 31, 2016. FEMA, Villanova NCAA


* Cops investigate boy's entry into exhibit, gorilla's killing at Cincinnati Zoo
* Elmhurst police: Man sought in bank robbery shot himself
* Drew Peterson found guilty of trying to have prosecutor killed
* Hollywood and Korean pop could bring down Kim Jong-Un
* Chaos awaits besieged Cameron no matter what happens with Brexit
* Joliet girl, 13, dies after pulled from Kankakee River; search continues for brother, 12
* Emanuel regrets dragging Rauner's wife into fight but doesn't apologize
* 'Shield' actor convicted of 2nd-degree murder
* Madigan, Cullerton rebuff Rauner request for short-term budget
* Man rescued after falling from bridge onto Metra canopy downtown


* Illinois State Museum to reopen July 2 if $5 admission fee gets approval
* Democrats won't take up temporary state budget Tuesday
* Q&A: Illinois heading toward another year without state budget
* Lawmakers send Rauner plan to reopen Hardin County prison camp
* House OKs measure to study lead in Illinois drinking water
* Rauner pushes for interim budget ahead of Tuesday leader meeting
* Another year without a budget? Sure looking that way
* Chicago gets some pension relief as Rauner veto overridden
* Illinois Senate OKs bill to give unpaid leave to sexual abuse victims
* Kathleen Parker: A trump too far?


* Homeless man accused of using bike to break door on business, steal motorcycle
* Where did the money go? Trump details fundraising for vets
* Drew Peterson found guilty in murder-for-hire plot
* Illinois reaches Final Four
* 33-year sentence for Danville man after second-degree murder plea
* 05-31-16 Penny for Your Thoughts
* 05-31-16 On The Money @PaulRuedi
* Tickets for Dick Van Dyke? Sale starts tomorrow
* Fire displaces family of five in Ogden
* U.S. home prices rise in March as spring buying season begins


* Man charged with killing grandmother wants statements to police thrown out
* 5 things you need to know about the Illinois budget crisis
* Drew Peterson found guilty in murder-for-hire plot
* Thunderstorms could affect afternoon commute
* Woman extricated from SUV after Elk Grove crash

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Senator Durbin Statement on TSA Security D......

* Donald Trump Is Making All (Republican) Po......
* Defence sales: US Senate may vote to bring......

* Pro-Abortion Bills Alive in the Illinois Legislature
* Two Republicans break with House caucus to override Rauner veto of Emanuel pension plan
* “Teachers now have a real voice in the United Federation of Teachers, and that voice will not be silenced.”
* Hillary Clinton channels Steve Martin.
* Republicans debate Madigan's budget
* Bill to examine lead levels in Illinois drinking water moves to Senate
* Chicago Public School students invade Capitol, demand tax hike
* Rezin proposes COLA cuts for lawmakers, executive officers and agency directors
* Roskam calls on IRS to correct its policy on seizing small business accounts
* Chicago's killing fields bloodier than ever over Memorial Day weekend


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller