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Kelly poll has her leading

Wednesday, Feb 6, 2013

* Robin Kelly’s campaign has a new poll…

* From the pollster…

The following are key findings from a survey of 400 likely voters in the February 26th special primary election. Interviews were conducted on February 4-5 and respondents were reached on both landlines and cell phones. Results for the survey carry a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval.

• Kelly moves into first place. After sitting behind both Halvorson and Hutchinson in an early January survey, Kelly now leads the pack at 26 percent of likely voters.

o Kelly has wide base of support. Kelly’s lead is broad as she expands her support in every corner of the district. She now leads among African American voters across the district and throughout Cook County—both in the city and the suburbs.

o Kelly’s leadership on gun control resonating. Among those voters who volunteer that they have heard Kelly’s message on preventing gun violence and taking on the NRA, she wins a whopping 65 percent of the vote.

* On guns…

• The NRA remains toxic in IL-2. Just 16 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of the NRA here, with 60 percent holding a negative impression. No voting bloc—racial, regional, or ideological has a favorable impression of the group. Even self described conservatives have a negative view by a 2:1 margin.

More troubling for Hutchinson and Halvorson is that a solid majority (56 percent) of voters say they would be “not at all likely” to support a candidate who they agreed with on a majority of issues, but who earned an A from the NRA. Another 15 percent said they would only be “a little likely” to support such a candidate.

• Hutchinson’s true record on guns not out yet. This week’s Chicago Tribune story detailing Senator Hutchinson’s responses on her NRA questionnaire that earned her an A rating has not yet penetrated the public’s perception. More than one in five (21 percent) of voters who say they would not support an A-rated candidate are currently voting for Hutchinson—support that is likely to disappear as the campaign continues.

• Halvorson’s standing upside down. Halvorson’s vote share declined from 25 to 22 percent over the last month. While not a precipitous fall, Halvorson’s personal standing has taken a serious hit in recent weeks. In January, 2nd District primary voters viewed Halvorson favorably by a 34 – 18 percent margin. Halvorson’s negative standing has more than doubled in that time (29 percent favorable – 37 percent unfavorable). Her decline among African Americans is particularly steep.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


28 Comments
  1. - The Captain - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 1:49 pm:

    The underlying mechanics of this race have been favoring Kelly for a while now (money, earned media, paid media by proxy) so this isn’t a total surprise. The key findings on the gun issue are the first numbers I’ve seen for this district though and they make it clear just how difficult it will be for Halvorson or Hutchinson to overcome their natural disadvantage on this top hot button issue.


  2. - Don't Worry, Be Happy - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 1:51 pm:

    The movement in the poll makes sense, but the caveat is that the top three are all within the margin of error.


  3. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 1:59 pm:

    It’s tied up in that poll. This will be a small turn out election. That favors Halvorson


  4. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 2:09 pm:

    What I want to know is who are the 5% of the people that support Reynolds? Sheesh.


  5. - Chicago Cynic - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 2:25 pm:

    This race is going to come down to Kelly and Toi. It’s a tossup from there, but if I had to guess, I’d give a slight edge to Kelly.


  6. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 2:36 pm:

    Is the NRA or ISRA going to put any real money into Halvorson?

    Bloomberg’s crew is pounding her. And other candidate are watching.

    It’s a brave new world after Citizens United. The chump change that the NRA has spent in the past ain’t going to cut it in the future.


  7. - Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 3:08 pm:

    Pretty big Margin-Of-Error in that poll. If anything, as many of have said for a couple weeks now, this is going to be a 3-Horse Race pretty much to the finish. But NY City Mayor Bloomberg’s nightly Super PAC Ad slamming Ms. Halvorson (and her past posture with the NRA on gun rights) does now appear to be taking enough of a toll on her that she really needs to counteract it with some solid TV Ad of her own–and REAL soon, or she may indeed face the prospect of fading-off onto a slippery slope and a distant 3rd….


  8. - Etown - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 3:26 pm:

    Halvorson is getting what she deserves from Bloomberg. She was able to get away with her cozy relationsip with the gun guys while in Senate and her brief stint in Congress but she made her bed and now she has to sleep in it.


  9. - bored now - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 3:29 pm:

    VanillaMan: lower turnout favors those who are organized, and — more specifically — those who have a larger volunteer core. that is robin kelly. it’s not just issues. robin has such a phenomenal reputation in the 2nd CD that other people’s volunteers are actually robin volunteers (which isn’t exactly appreciated by those “other” people)…


  10. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 3:34 pm:

    Is Ald. Beale in a position to cut a deal?

    If this poll is accurate, Beale seems out of the running for #1, but holding enough support to make the difference.

    Youse gots to give to gets. Having 10% support doesn’t have any value once the votes get cast.


  11. - cowboyoga - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 3:49 pm:

    I suspect from the numbers and the source that these are results from intensive push-poll calling we’ve been receiving in the district these past two weeks. Therefore I think the results are suspect.


  12. - titan - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 4:26 pm:

    The Bloomberg backed SuperPAC ads against Halvorson are absolutely brutal. If those continue ananswered, she’s likely toast (particularly if no other TV ad money flows into the race).
    It is like the Blago/Topinko race where the only ads were the “What was she thinking?” ads (but with no other political ads for any other offices to dilute the message).


  13. - ZC - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 4:46 pm:

    Yeah let’s hold off here too much until we get a more independent polling outfit report, or Halvorson and Hutchinson conspicuously fail to release their internal polling.


  14. - Votecounter - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 4:49 pm:

    We know one thing Halversons #’s were solid she is in the 20 something % range and has been from the beginning. what is the turnout and where will it come from?


  15. - Boone Logan Square - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 5:56 pm:

    The Kelly campaign’s interpretation of the poll tips how the rest of this campaign will play out.

    It’s all about the NRA from here to Election Day.


  16. - Kwark - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 6:00 pm:

    When will the press & other candidates start honing in on Kelly’s character issues? It is amazing to me that Kelly has had a free pass on her association with Lexi Giannoulias. Some of the Giannoulias people were big contributors to Kelly in her 12/31 report. Who are those people? That must be part of why Preckwinkle is staying away from Kelly.


  17. - Come On Now - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 6:25 pm:

    oh come on Kwark, Hutchinson really does not want to get into a character debate with her “activities” in Springfield!


  18. - Church Lady - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 6:44 pm:

    I have to AGREE with Come On Now.


  19. - bored now - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 6:44 pm:

    robin kelly’s character is unimpeachable. if toi and her peeps want to get into a character debate, i strongly suspect that robin (or, more accurately) and her peeps would welcome that debate…


  20. - Kasich Walker, Jr. - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 7:29 pm:

    Who conducted the poll?

    I had a few calls requesting that I participate in a poll. I asked what was in it for, and the caller said, “A chance to have your voice heard.”

    I asked who was paying the caller to hear my voice, but the caller wouldn’t identify who was paying, so I said no thanks.

    Who performed the poll cited here? Give the thread title, I assume Kelly’s campaign paid for the poll showing her leading.


  21. - Kasich Walker, Jr. - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 7:31 pm:

    My typing is getting worse, so I’ll try again:

    Who conducted the poll?

    I had a few calls requesting that I participate in a poll. I asked what was in it for me, and the caller said, “A chance to have your voice heard.”

    I asked who was paying the caller to hear my voice, but the caller wouldn’t identify who was paying, so I said no thanks.

    Given the thread title, I assume Kelly’s campaign paid for the poll showing her leading.


  22. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 7:37 pm:

    Kasich, how are we doing on Peotone?

    Any candidate want to stand up and sell that good farmland the state owns and be done with that boondoggle?


  23. - Kasich Walker, Jr. - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 8:40 pm:

    I’m guessing none of the top 6 or 7 candidates will speak out against it, but will use it like JJ,Jr. did to “explain” why things aren’t goin’ like they want after a few years in office — because there is no Int; airport a few minutes from every home in the 2nd CD.


  24. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 9:02 pm:

    K, Peotone is a huge state investment in land. With Trips gone, we should try to unload.

    Who’s with us?


  25. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Feb 6, 13 @ 10:04 pm:

    @word-

    There’s few hundred property owners in eastern Will County you could count on. The Governor directs the activities of the agency in control of the situation, though, and he made that “as soon as humanly possible” statement.


  26. - DoubleDown - Thursday, Feb 7, 13 @ 1:48 am:

    Wonder which candidate’s will be here?

    2nd Congressional Candidate Forum in Peotone

    The resignation of Jesse Jackson, Jr. means residents of the Illinois Second Congressional District will elect a new representative during the April 2013 municipal election.

    Primary elections will be held February 26, 2013. Voters can attend a candidate forum in Peotone at Peotone High School organized by The Will County Farm Bureau, The Cook County Farm Bureau, Shut This Airport Nightmare Down (STAND), Will County Board Member Judy Ogalla, and Kankakee County Commissioner John Howard.

    All candidates have been invited.

    Forum Details:
    Saturday, February 9, 2013
    Peotone High School, 605 W. North St., Peotone
    Doors open at 2pm, forum begins at 2:30pm


  27. - Ellen Beth Gill - Thursday, Feb 7, 13 @ 8:17 am:

    I’m not interested in helping any of the NRA candidates, but CD polls are notoriously incorrect. The safer bet is that this is anyone’s race. If you want any particular candidate, you had better get out there and work.


  28. - South Suburban (Chicago area) Voter - Friday, Feb 8, 13 @ 1:08 pm:

    I am an African American, living in the south surburbs of Chicago. I was contacted for this R Kelly poll. They calimed to be from Central Reseach out of Hudson, FL. The poll conducter seemed to try to steer people to Kelly. They never mentioned R Kelly, but from the conversation they seemed to pause with a sort of dislike when I told them I was voting for Debbie Halvorson, and that my family would definitly vote in the upcoming primary for her.

    The poll targeted Debbie by asking numerous questions about the ongoing commericals against the NRA and her stance on gun control. And after 4-5 minutes of questions on gun control will you still vote for Halvorson. And, of course I said yes.

    Although all of the candidates appear to be qualified I believe Debbie Halvorson’s qualifications as a congresswoman are more geared toward the congressional seat at hand. The only exception is from congressman Mel Reynolds who has no chance at all to win.

    Bottom line - if there is to be a poll of the candidates let’s have a fair poll, not one that is bias to one candidate to make it appear the candidate is winning. That’s a show of desperation, in my oppinion.


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