SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
*** UPDATED x1 *** Poll shows Rauner movement

Monday, Jul 8, 2013

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column ran last week, but we were closed last week so you didn’t get to see it

Back in early February, not a single person mentioned Bruce Rauner in a Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll of who likely Republican primary election voters liked as a candidate for governor.

Other polls since then have shown Rauner, a retired financier, drawing support in the low single digits in his bid for governor.

But Rauner has been dumping money into downstate TV, the Fox News Channel in the Chicago area and Chicago and downstate radio. As a result, he appears to be moving some numbers.

A Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll taken June 20 of 1,310 likely Republican gubernatorial primary voters found Rauner at 12 percent. The poll was taken almost two weeks after Rauner began running ads.

Twelve percent was enough for third place. It’s tough at this point to gauge just where Rauner’s ceiling is. He could zoom way up like the unknown wealthy candidate Jack Ryan did in the 2004 Republican U.S. Senate primary, taking over first place in January and never relinquishing it.

Or Rauner could top out like Ron Gidwitz did in the 2006 Republican gubernatorial primary. Like Rauner, Gidwitz started running TV ads in July 2005 and spent millions, but after an early rise he stopped moving and ended up at just 11 percent.

Rauner’s “angry outsider” and anti-union messages may play well with the GOP base, but he also has pro-choice leanings, won’t say where he stands on gay marriage and has close ties to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel — none of which will be loved by conservative Republicans. If any of his competitors exploit those weaknesses, Rauner’s rise could be stopped in its tracks.

Also, just 700,000 to 800,000 people tend to vote in GOP primaries, so the party’s old guard tends to have a significant say in the outcome. And, right now, the old guard is mostly with state Sen. Kirk Dillard (R-Hinsdale).

But the poll has Dillard just barely in last place of the four gubernatorial candidates tested. However, pollster Gregg Durham cautioned against reading too much into the results.

“There isn’t a single result in here that I would consider as a trend, indication of strength or hint of weakness,” Durham said after he conducted the poll. “It’s just too early.”

And with the poll’s margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent, it’s impossible to say for sure that Dillard is in fourth place.

The poll has Treasurer Dan Rutherford ahead with 22 percent, state Sen. Bill Brady (R-Bloomington) second with 18 percent, Rauner at 12 percent and Dillard with 11 percent. A significant 38 percent said they were undecided.

Rutherford has carefully built a statewide campaign infrastructure for the past two decades, culminating in 2010 with his election as state treasurer. Brady is on his third race for governor, and his name recognition is still pretty strong after his 2010 loss to Gov. Pat Quinn. Dillard has been a state party fixture for years and lost to Brady by less than 200 votes in the 2010 Republican primary.

Except for Rauner, it’s difficult to tell at this point how the candidates are doing with their fundraising. Most candidates in both parties are taking advantage of an obscure but important state law that allows them to hold off reporting contributions until after they deposit the checks.

Until they start spending money in a big way and need that cash immediately, we won’t be able to track most candidate fundraising between quarterly finance reports. Rauner needs access to his cash because he’s spending so much.

Dillard is reportedly telling people that he’s on track to raise $200,000 to $300,000 this quarter, while Rutherford apparently plans to report $1 million in the bank at the end of the quarter. But beyond that, we really don’t know what’s going on.

Also, Rauner has been careful not to go above the $250,000 quarterly ceiling for self-funding of a campaign, which would break the contribution caps for all candidates running for governor.

State law is a bit vague on whether a busted cap in one primary election would apply to the other. The executive director of the Illinois State Board of Elections told me last month that his interpretation of the law is that if a candidate in one party busts the cap, then candidates in all parties for that particular office are no longer constrained by the cap.

The poll, by the way, had Rutherford ahead in downstate counties and in suburban Cook County, while Brady led in the suburban collar counties and Chicago.

Subscribers have full crosstabs.

*** UPDATE *** From a press release…

Republican candidate for governor Bruce Rauner announced today that his campaign raised more than $915,000 in the second quarter fundraising period, bringing his total campaign fundraising to more than $2.2 million.

* Related…

* Rauner, Daley raise big money in 2nd quarter

* Governor candidate Rauner stops in Peru

* Cook County health foundation snags gift from Rauner

* Nunda Township GOP to host governor candidate

- Posted by Rich Miller        


23 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 9:37 am:

    –The poll, by the way, had Rutherford ahead in downstate counties and in suburban Cook County, while Brady led in the suburban collar counties and Chicago.–

    That’s interesting, if a bit counter-intuitive. But it’s way early.

    Rauner is all over Internet news sites (not Cap Fax) with banner ads. Hitting every cliche in the book: “It’s our turn,” “Shake up Springfield,” “Bring back Illinois” and then something about the “Quinn-Madigan Machine” and “The man politicians fear…”


  2. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 9:47 am:

    The proof will be in the pudding come the time when Rauner needs specifics and not catchy internet headers. Bashing everyone to be “different” is great, but the Rauner Crew must realize that some plans to “fix” Illinois seem half-baked when put up against that pesky Constitution Illinois has.

    As for Dillard and Brady and their money woes, news flash, it is not going to get easier as the days fly by.

    I will really look forward to these candidates choosing their running mates and State Fair time. This race is still in flux, and that helps Rauner, “today”


  3. - PublicServant - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 9:54 am:

    Rich, can you provide a little background on who supported placing the loophole currently being exploited into the campaign finance bill? Not who voted for it overall, but who engineered the inclusion of the “loophole” basically neutering the intent of the law.


  4. - Charlatan Heston - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 10:02 am:

    Welcome back…hope you had a great week off and holiday Rich. I don’t know much about Rauner but Daley is to date underwhelming. I can’t see the recent Bloomberg endorsement helping Daley. Thoughts?


  5. - walkinfool - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 10:43 am:

    Hearing a lot about Daley in the NW burbs.

    Brought up Rauner twice this weekend, with some well-to-do Conservatives, and no one heard of him without a reminder. “You mean Daley, the banker?” one guy said.

    Surprised me.


  6. - Chicago Cynic - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 10:44 am:

    Money clearly buys name recognition at this stage of the game. As you’ve reported previously, other wealthy candidate have bought themselves 15-20% without too much trouble. It’s kind of like fundraising. The early $$ is the easiest money to get. What comes next is the real question.


  7. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 10:58 am:

    - walkinfool -,

    Never got the chance to thank you for the really kind words you posted about me. Thank you, appreciate that. I am on your debt.

    To the Post,

    Of the three not named Rauner, the question also remains who is the best organized, today, and of those 3, which will be able to compete with a Ground attack to counter Rauner’s paid air assault? Can’t wait, until its too late…


  8. - walkinfool - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 11:04 am:

    O’Willy: You’re right that a lot of cool-sounding general “fixes” are half-baked in the harsh light of reality. But constitutional arguments, budget realities, or even arithmetic, won’t impact many people’s perspectives.

    Most voters are not into such technicalities. They’re more into “Does this person sound like he or she knows what to do?”

    They’ll usually buy the big, juicy burger, horsemeat and all.


  9. - pizzajohnny - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 11:04 am:

    Right now it looks like Rauner and three yawn inducers. I’ll take the businessman with undeclared stances on gay marriage and abortion rights.


  10. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 11:10 am:

    Agreed.

    My thought was to the other 3 candidates, and if they can make those arguments stick against Rauner, not the idea that those factors on their own will be enough.

    Can the other three make the case that Rauner does not sound like the guy who can fix things, and make that stick.

    Fair?


  11. - walkinfool - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 11:35 am:

    Certainly.


  12. - Wumpus - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 11:45 am:

    I had a Rauner movement this morning. I flushed it immediately.


  13. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 12:00 pm:

    “anti-union messages may play well with the GOP base”

    Rauner’s a genius. His policies would certainly help Illinois and help close the massive wealth gap between the top few and everyone else.

    He would be the politician to also close the huge gap between productivity and wages. He has a great small-government model to follow in Florida, where their governor signed a law that allows the state to ban local governments from enacting paid sick leave ordinances. Who needs paid sick leave? We’re a bunch of weaklings. We should be working even if we’re half-dead, just like the tough workers at the beginning of the last century.

    We will have to get raincoats due to all of the prosperity raining down upon us. Or septic suits.


  14. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 12:12 pm:

    - Grandson of Man -,

    You think for one minute the General Assembly, as constituted with Democratic majorities will agree to …any of these thoughts? Doubt it.

    Rauner is running for governor, 1/3 of Illinois government, not CEO with unchecked powers, and without working with an equal partner in leadership.

    Sounds great to run on, but to implement in practice might be tricky, at best. The Governor of Illinois is extremely powerful, but in what Rauner touts, Rauner needs a partner in the GA in a good chunk of it, and Rauner is ignoring that to feed the campaign, or honestly doesn’t understand what the job of governor entails.


  15. - 47th Ward - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 12:13 pm:

    ===A significant 38 percent said they were undecided.===

    That’s the number Joe Walsh keeps repeating to himself. There is an opening for a Tea Party candidate to get into this race and Joe can bring the crazy as much or more than anyone else in Illinois. Go for it Joe. It’s now or never.


  16. - Samurai - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 12:44 pm:

    =His policies would certainly help Illinois and help close the massive wealth gap between the top few and everyone else=

    I will assume the rain coat comment was hyperbole, but do tell how Mr. Rauner closes the gap.

    Regardless the disdain for politicians, it is an art and profession to craft and implement competing policy interests. Whether the art has been exercised ethically in Illinois is a different issue. However, considering Rauner’s polarizing statements and often shown lack of knowledge regarding the business of government, I have little confidence that a Rauner administration will much benefit the State, let alone close any gaps.


  17. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 12:56 pm:

    Oswego Willy,

    Of course you are correct. Even with Democrats siding with the Civic Committee sometimes, and sending me an occasional email saying stuff like, “Sorry we can’t close corporate tax loopholes right now, but try again next time,” I believe that Democrats would not support his policies.

    I know a few folks who feel absolutely betrayed by Democrats. I try to be an an optimist and not share that view.

    “not CEO with unchecked powers”

    That’s what Rauner sounds like when he wants to circumvent state law and implement right-to-work in localities, and his basic anti-union stance. Shame on me for criticizing him. People like Rauner know what’s best for workers. We don’t need collective bargaining. What we need is paternalism.


  18. - wordslinger - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 1:33 pm:

    –Regardless the disdain for politicians, it is an art and profession to craft and implement competing policy interests.–

    Rauner claims to be down on politicians, but he’s dropped millions on them over the years.

    He’s down on Chicago Public Schools and teachers, but spent a bundle to clout his kid into a Chicago Public School.

    He’s down on public employee pensions, but he made a bundle off investing their funds.

    He’s a LaSalle Street hedgie, but he travels the state dressed like Mr. Haney selling the elixir for all that ails you out of the back of his truck.

    The guy is everything he claims to disdain — a wired-up, clout-heavy, long-time, political insider. He must not think what he is, really, is very attractive to the public. Or he just thinks we’re all stupid.


  19. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 1:55 pm:

    Wow! Two point two million dollars…

    Is that enough dough to not let on that you are the ultimate Fraud?

    They say good Fiction pays well, I guess good Fiction can raise a good amount of money to spread it too…


  20. - DanL60 - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 2:39 pm:

    ==Rauner’s “angry outsider” and anti-union messages may play well with the GOP base==

    Not. C’mon, you were laughing when you wrote that, admit it.


  21. - Wumpus - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 3:05 pm:

    People always claim they don’t want the typical politician. But we usually vote for the typical politician.


  22. - votecounter - Monday, Jul 8, 13 @ 4:27 pm:

    I know Rich didn’t like to see it here but people have been trying to get Oberweis to get into the race. Looking at these numbers I can say they are correct.


  23. - ItGirl - Friday, Jul 26, 13 @ 4:33 pm:

    Rauner can buy “conservative confusion” with his internet ads but that’s about it. Once conservative voters understand his dealings with Rahm Emanuel and other Democrats. He’s toast. The only issue is how much conservative confusion can he create before he bottoms out? After all a lot of conservative voters are pretty easy to fool - but once the RINO gossip on Rauner spreads - watch Humpty Dumpty have a great fall.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Afternoon updates
* Hospitals back removal of income tax sunsets
* The other strategy
* *** UPDATED 1x *** Quinn onboard; Rauner latches onto term limits proposal
* Because Illinois is a real battleground state
* Quinn dodges Rahm question on "Morning Joe"
* Morning Shorts
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * iPhone 6 curved design, Swarovski Galaxy S5, Android dialer & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * Sharp AQUOS 304SH boasts slim bezels on 5.2-inch display
        * Pinterest Adds Smarter Search Tool
        * Samsung Galaxy Note 10.1 2014 Android 4.4.2 changes get detailed
        * Viber transmits and stores images and videos insecurely
        * NETGEAR STS7000 is a tablet geared for home security
        * Hulu Plus app now casts to PS3, PS4, Xbox One

        * Want This: Star Wars Millennium Falcon Windshield Sun Shade
        * DryFlush Saves Water, Will It Save The Planet?
        * ASUS C200 Chromebook Available For Pre-Order From Select Stores
        * Minecraft Xbox One Will Enjoy Saved Files From Xbox 360
        * Jumpr Juices Your Phone, Jumpstarts Your Car
        * Fan Remakes Resident Evil 2 With Unreal Engine As Proof Of Concept
        * Mark Zuckerberg Tried Out Sony’s Project Morpheus Before Acquiring Oculus VR

        * Detroit Tigers 7, Chicago White Sox 4: Scherzer Stops Sox
        * Quintana solid, but drops finale in Detroit
        * Johnson starts homestand opener vs. Rays
        * Quintana solid, but drops finale in Detroit
        * Walks working against the White Sox' plans for the bullpen
        * Viciedo maturing at the plate
        * Beckham returns, thrust into starting lineup


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Sosnowski, other state leaders respond to Gov. .....
        * Minimum- and low-wage workers react to Gov. Pat.....
        * Dem Governor of Illinois Condones Comparison Be.....


        * Man pleading guilty in drugs for bitcoins scheme
        * Man charged with giving girlfriend HIV
        * Man charged with giving girlfriend HIV
        * Ill. jobs screened for political ties after hiring
        * Ex-Marine sentenced to die in sailor's slaying
        * Quinn: Obama library should get private funds too
        * Twice-fired police chief charged with battery
        * Illinois governor praises work of slain doctor
        * Illinois researchers to study Washington mudslide
        * Severe storms loom across central US this weekend

        * State jobs screened for political rules after hires
        * Bankruptcy court trial sought over $3.8 million paid to Parsons
        * Amazon takes hit in states with online tax, study says
        * State audit: Police training money misspent
        * Audit: Treasurer's office has 30 guns not given to police
        * Madigan: 'Misunderstanding' on Obama library vote
        * Madigan re-elected to lead state Democratic party
        * Hastert, other state Republicans supporting immigration reform
        * Lawsuit seeks investigation of hiring under Quinn
        * Patronage allegations give Rauner fodder in race against Quinn

        * Chicago City Council committee OKs plastic bag ban
        * Feds to review Northwestern bid to unionize
        * United stock takes biggest tumble since October 2011
        * Next up for CPS: Barack Obama College Prep
        * Left set to play Kochs' game: Liberal elite meet here Sunday


        * CPS puts $100 million price tag on mayor's A/C-in-schools edict
        * Man fatally shot Thursday night in Auburn Gresham neighborhood
        * Woman sexually assaulted near Matteson Metra station
        * Priest in 2nd child abuse investigation won’t be alone with kids: archdiocese
        * Reject firefighter staffing bill
        * Chicago man charged with giving girlfriend HIV; wife died of AIDS
        * Trio charged with robbing stores, gas stations in city, suburbs
        * His wife died of AIDS, now Chicago man is charged with giving girlfriend HIV
        * Pedicab operators say a crackdown could put them out of business
        * Robo-calls on pension reform bill raise Rauner-Rahm rift


        * 1 dead, 7 injured in shootings
        * Woman sexually assaulted in Matteson
        * Illinois graduated income tax vote next week
        * Dutch man charged in Chicago with selling drugs for bitcoins
        * Ravinia sales brisk, but wait long, as ticket-buying opens
        * New Chicago high school to be named for Obama
        * Lawyers for men charged in NIU hazing death challenge law
        * Coach fired in Maine West hazing scandal fails to win back job
        * Illinoisans have lowest home-state opinions in the U.S., poll says
        * Mom on death penalty for Torrez: ""I only wish I could do it myself"


        * Secret recording shows Uber's efforts to poach Chicago cabbies
        * Springfield Ordinances for Lincoln's Funeral Unearthed
        * Illinois Finally Gets 'No Child Left Behind' Waiver
        * Chicago aldermen pass plastic bag ban
        * City Council panel passes plastic bag ban
        * Marian Anderson Tribute - 'The Concert That Shook The Establishment'
        * Organic foods sold by Walmart create fear among some organic farmers and farm advocates
        * Senator Kirk joins Revolution in backing Small BREW Act
        * Listen To State Week - April 18, 2014
        * Earth Friendly Event In Springfield This Weekend


        * State jobs screened for political rules after hires
        * Quinn: Obama library should get private funds too
        * Rauner skips GOP event over pastor's comments
        * Quinn backs term limits for constitutional officers
        * Rauner wants Quinn to release hiring documents
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Barr borrowed late in sheriff campaign to keep ads flowing
        * Cristal Thomas: Protecting Illinois’ pregnant workers shouldn’t be a heavy lift
        * Remap group says it is not political
        * Quinn clout hiring faces scrutiny
        * Judge OKs use of lawmaker's post-arrest statement


        * Deadline approaches for memorial bricks
        * Jacksonville man receives French Legion of Honour
        * Major gets first-hand look at volunteer spirit
        * State legislature to consider term limits
        * Police Beat
        * Our view: Patronage
        * Taxpayers don’t need this monumental bill
        * Upcoming Services (April 25, 2014)
        * Open Line
        * Bullying Awareness at RCC


        * The 10th District money race
        * Aurora Democrat calls out IHSA
        * Lawyers: Ill. hazing law vague, unconstitutional
        * Ill. House OKs lower-cost hunting bill for seniors
        * Quinn’s running mate takes new consulting job

        * Rep. Jan Schakowsky: The Affordable Care A...
        * Aaron Schock's fabulously exciting Instagr...
        * Chuck Sweeny: Adam Kinzinger, Aaron Schock...
        * In immigration news: Republicans for refor...
        * Illinois Republicans warm to legal status ...
        * GOP 'Congressman with Abs' Aaron Schock Ha...
        * Illinois Republicans Call for Immigration ...
        * Rep. Aaron Schock in Japan, China, South K...
        * Lewis lauds Dirksen's role in civil rights...
        * Civil rights icon John Lewis says next gen...

        * Loading Koch Industries Website Too Many T......
        * Maryland and DC among worst for food aller......
        * Cleveland State University to reestablish ......
        * Convicted political boss Al Sanchez runnin......
        * Candidates make last filings for local, st......

        * Illinois Lt. Gov. Simon opposes pension le......
        * Dillard Odd Man Out on Pension Deal Reaction...
        * Sen. Mark Kirk sides with Rauner on pensio......
        * Governor's race infighting threatens pensi......
        * SCHOONERS - Home of Everyone's Favorite Be......

        * The Tea Party Genome
        * Chicago Reader: It's getting harder to snicker at Obamacare
        * Heartbreak Hotel
        * Major Oil & Gas Firm To List Drilling Chemicals
        * Durbin Says FDA E-Cigarette Regulations Don't Go Far Enough
        * Herbalife Punished 600 Distributors For Medical Claims: ABC News
        * Harmon To Push For Graduated Tax Vote Next Week
        * Madigan blames Tea Party for $100M Obama Library re-vote
        * Oberweis remains committed to border security, immigration law enforcement
        * One In Ten U.S. Bridges In Urgent Need Of Repair: Report


        * Cases of Chlamydia, Gonorrhea and HIV on the Rise Nationally - Residents Are Encouraged to Get Tested for STDs
        * State Insurance Regulators Urge Property Owners to Review/Add Coverage to Protect from Floods & Water Damage - Most homeowners’ policies do not cover flood damage
        * Governor Quinn Statement on New Proposal to Enact Term Limits for Constitutional Officers
        * Statement from Governor Quinn on the Passing of Dr. Jerry Umanos
        * Governor Quinn Proclaims “Wrigley Field Day” - Home of the Chicago Cubs Turns 100 Years Old Today




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller