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The expectations game

Tuesday, Jul 9, 2013

* As subscribers already know, I have a much different take on this topic

Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan’s campaign reported Monday taking in nearly $530,000 in new contributions, according to campaign records. Add another $100k since April 1 and the fund-raising surge puts Lisa Madigan in striking distance of $5 million in total cash-on-hand when the reporting period ends. The total outpaces two other Democratic gubernatorial potential candidates: Gov. Pat Quinn and William Daley, however Quinn held his own in larger donations over the last few weeks. […]

Insiders have said the attorney general was working to close out the second period in commanding fashion, hoping to reach $5 million. The filing deadline for the second period is July 15th.

The newest campaign disclosures include a $52,600 boost from DRIVE Teamsters Political Action Committee, another $10,600 from SEIU and tens of thousands more from teachers unions and other employee unions.

Lisa Madigan would have to do little more than sign her name to be reelected once again as Illinois Attorney General. So if not for a gubernatorial campaign, where will the $5 million go?

She was outraised this past quarter by Gov. Quinn, Bill Daley and Bruce Rauner. She raised a lot less money in the second quarter than she raised in the first quarter. The spin out of her campaign yesterday was that she reached her $5 million goal, but that wasn’t a quarter of somebody gearing up extremely hard for a major statewide race. Her first quarter was. I don’t know if this means she’s not running or just didn’t put in enough time and effort, but either way, she didn’t beat expectations.

* And, eventually, she’s gonna have to talk about this stuff

Attorney General Lisa Madigan- still undecided about running for Governor- would not divulge her positions on concealed carry or pension reform.

“We’ll see what’s happening in Springfield. This is now in the hands of the Legislature,” said Madigan.

I get why she’s trying to avoid answering questions, but she can’t continue this for much longer if she wants to run for governor.

* Meanwhile, there has been no talk outside of this one Tribune article about a Downstate Democrat running for governor. I’m not even sure who it would be

“Right now, (Downstate Democrats) see the choices and it’s two Chicago guys,” said state Rep. Brandon Phelps, the Harrisburg Democrat who helped negotiate the legislature’s compromise bill from the gun-owner rights perspective. “I think there might be some other people who will get into this race.” […]

As for a potential Downstate Democratic contender for governor who has the credibility and gravitas to run, Phelps said he believes some possible candidates are waiting to see if Madigan enters the contest. “A lot of us (Downstate Democrats) will get together. I think there’s some people looking at horses to ride,” he said.

Can you think of anybody?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


48 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:29 am:

    The Teamsters will be honked if they dropped $50K on a candidate for a slam-dunk AGs race.

    There’s a lot of chutzpah in asking people for big dough and not disclosing what you’re running for. And the dodging of questions is way old, too.


  2. - So. ILL - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:33 am:

    How about a bid by our current Lt. Gov?


  3. - Will Caskey - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:35 am:

    The last time any Illinois D paid any attention to the “geographic balance” thing it was in 2006, with Madigan supporting Paul Mangieri for Treasurer against Alexi Giannoulias.

    Giannoulias certainly had his faults, but he dropped Mangieri like a bad habit in the primary. When he had trouble in his own statewide primary, it was to another Chicago resident (David Hoffman, 2010). And when he lost, it was to a north shore Republican.

    So do we really, really have to keep talking about geographic balance?


  4. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:37 am:

    ===Downstate Democratic contender for governor who has the credibility and gravitas to run,===

    Unless you can raise the dead, no such such person exists today. You have to use the way-back machine to find downstate Democrats with both credibility and gravitas. Dixon. Simon. Demuzio. Severns. Sadly, they aren’t making them like that anymore.


  5. - Jake - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:39 am:

    Mike Frerichs is being sort of cute. He is raising a lot money statewide on the expectation that he will run for treasurer, but so far has only been exploring. And he has a record on the big tough issues that is designed to play well statewide in a governors race. Probably he will run for treasurer but I would not be shocked to see him go for governor.


  6. - Draft him - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:40 am:

    How about a downstater who would win? Who could and would fight to save the middle class? Who has the stature and the smarts to stand up to anyone in IL politics?

    Could Dick Durbin be persuaded to run?


  7. - shore - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:40 am:

    Wordslinger correct again. There have been more breathless worshipping stories (looking at you sun-times) about guys and gals named Edgar, Kennedy, Daley and Lisa, Princess of Madiganistan who haven’t ended up running for office than the people who actually did run for office. It’s sucking the wind out of coverage of candidates/campaigns/debates who are actually running, do actually put in the time to talk to voters and aren’t just some overhyped political scion waiting to get crowned the next line on their resume.

    I see absolutely nothing remarkable about this woman other than the fact she’s managed to spend 15 years in springfield and not crashed the way so many down there have.


  8. - Count on it - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:41 am:

    Again I say of LM: She is not running….she never intended to run…it is all a game.

    But at this point, I don’t see anybody else who could run for Gov. So, it is Lisa Madigan or bust (see the above paragraph for how likely I think that is).


  9. - Living in Machiaville - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:49 am:

    ..”she didn’t beat expectations” Rich, should you decide to switch careers, Wall Street analyst might be a fit.


  10. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:49 am:

    –Unless you can raise the dead, no such such person exists today. You have to use the way-back machine to find downstate Democrats with both credibility and gravitas. Dixon. Simon. Demuzio. Severns. –

    47, your reports on the demise of Alan Dixon are greatly exaggerated. I’m sure everyone’s pal is still tipping the occasional Bud on these hot days in the Metro East.


  11. - Because I Said so... - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:50 am:

    @Draft Him….why would Durbin give up his high level position in DC to deal with this mess?


  12. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:51 am:

    Good call, Jake! Frerichs was up in the Evergreen Park 4th of July parade, with very vague “Meet Mike Frerichs” campaign signs being carried. He would be a very sharp contrast to the other 2 candidates (young, charismatic, articulate). Slap a contrasting upstate lt. gov. on the ticket and away we go!


  13. - OneMan - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:54 am:

    How about a suburban woman if no Lisa. Not sure if any could raise enough to be serious, but it is an interesting idea.


  14. - Rahm'sMiddleFinger - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:54 am:

    “Probably he (Frerichs) will run for treasurer but I would not be shocked to see him go for governor.”

    That’s silly. He’s only beginning to build a state-wide network.

    Pat Quinn certainly hopes a downstater gets in the race. The only downstate votes Daley will get will be anit-Quinn votes and obviously not pro-Daley, so it makes downstate even less relevant to the Governor’s re-nomination.


  15. - Draft him - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:54 am:

    “why would Durbin give up his high level position in DC to deal with this mess?”

    Because he’s the last best hope for Illinois? Because we could end up like WI and MI in a few years if he doesn’t?

    No doubt it would be harder work than he’s currently doing, so he’d have to want to take it on.

    It might be a pipe dream. But he’d win and he’d be a great governor.


  16. - Loop Lady - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:55 am:

    I think Sen. John Sullivan of Rushville is an outstanding pol, but why would he inflict this on himself and his family?

    Brandon is in a snit in general over the power base that is in Chicago. Understandsble, but that’s where the money and influence are. This politics, doncha know?

    The Madigans are so good at keeping their intentions to themselves, aren’t they? Until they dont’t.


  17. - Loop Lady - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 10:58 am:

    oops, This is politics, doncha know?


  18. - The Captain - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 11:00 am:

    Clayborne gave the idea some consideration in 2010 but decided against before going too far down the road. He’d have some issues to work through but without a downstater or an AA candidate in the race it would be a rather unique profile and would be a new twist on an old formula. I seriously doubt he would even think about getting in these days but it would be an interesting development.


  19. - Empty Chair - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 11:03 am:

    @word The Teamsters have also maxed out to Quinn from multiple funds. They’re hedging their bets, not gambling on LMadigan.


  20. - Rahm'sMiddleFinger - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 11:15 am:

    Few more things…

    Rich, I totally agree with you. I had been hearing about a “huge” quarter for Lisa. Pretty underwhelming. And her indecision is only helping Pat Quinn raise money. There a number of legislators who gave to Quinn who wouldn’t have if Lisa is in the race.

    One of those legislators was Clayborne. Pretty unlikely he’d run against Quinn. He’s actually a potential running mate.


  21. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 11:48 am:

    Sullivan or Freichs?


  22. - Knome Sane - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 11:52 am:

    = Because we could end up like WI and MI in a few years…=

    My friend, we are like Michigan already, no need to wait a few years. And I am not talking about that old saw “Chicago will be the next Detroit”, because Chicago will never be like Detroit for 1000 reasons.

    But, Illinois is broke and broken, just like the State of Michigan. And, in my opinion, we might want to take a page or two from Wisconsin. They appear to be in the black or close to it.


  23. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 12:07 pm:

    Oof. Thanks Word. I know Alan Dixon is still with us and should have worded that more carefully.

    On the other hand, his political career died when he voted to confirm Clarence Thomas. 1986 Alan Dixon would win the 2014 Governor’s race in a landslide.


  24. - Jake From Elwood - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 12:07 pm:

    Please not Roland Burris!


  25. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 12:34 pm:

    I would like to see Alan Dixon make a cameo appearance, like a groundhog, see if he sees his shadow, then maybe make a race of it. Would be an interesting dynamic.

    As for Lisa Madigan, I am sure the 5 million WAS a target, but that doesn’t mean it will quell expectations, even ones Lisa’s Crew helped to elevate. I have been between 60-80 percent “No” for a while, and see no reason to get off that.

    Maybe Alan Dixon for LG…?


  26. - LincolnLounger - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 12:38 pm:

    Michigan is actually projected to have a surplus this year of about $500 million, and the Governor wants to pay the “rainy day” fund first.


  27. - Skyhook - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 12:42 pm:

    So let me get this straight: Dick Durbin, who has supported every liberal policy that has gotten Illinois into this mess, is a potential savior as governor? How’s that U.S. economy doing?


  28. - The Captain - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 1:17 pm:

    Madigan still has $5 million in the bank and she’d have plenty more if she hadn’t spent an insane $4.8 million in 2010 for a reelection that she won by 33 points.


  29. - Just Me - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 1:19 pm:

    At some point we better start hearing about Lt. Governor picks. Petitions are really just a few weeks away if you think about it.


  30. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 1:23 pm:

    - The Captain -,

    The goal is to win, by one vote of 33 percentage points. You can’t fault the spending of the money, especially if you have it, and she won, so I guess it worked.

    Quickly, name Lisa’s last two opponents, no “searching”!

    Lisa can’t help that the ILGOP can’t beat her for AG, that is not her fault.


  31. - Illinoisan - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 1:24 pm:

    For those here mentioning Durbin - he would NEVER. Senators with his level of seniority seldom go back to work in their home state, opting instead to lobby or join a so-called “think tank”.

    Lisa will announce eventually, and Daley will drop out before the primary.


  32. - Bigtwich - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 1:27 pm:

    If there was a four way race Glenn Poshard could make a respectable showing. But, I do not think of him as crazy so never mind.


  33. - DanL60 - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 1:30 pm:

    Lisa cake walks one more term, and then moves on to a high profile firm like Thompson’s. Close to home close to kids, A LOT more money, with the funds to stay politically relevant forever.


  34. - Loop Lady - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 1:51 pm:

    Would Sullivan run with Quinn? What about some of the pols that have recently retired? We shall see…..


  35. - Raising Kane - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 2:05 pm:

    Loop Lady, I have heard the Gov is looking for an
    African American woman to be LG. It would help him in the primary.


  36. - anon - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 2:17 pm:

    Alan Dixon is 86 years old, and associated with mega law firm Bryan Cave. I doubt he is interested in running for Lt. Governor.


  37. - LisleMike - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 2:19 pm:

    Gosh, I hadn’t thought of Alan Dixon in a long while. My dad was his press secretary before he went to DC. (Dad passed just before) How old is Alan? I always liked him, if not his politics.


  38. - anon - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 2:21 pm:

    The one downstater no one has mentions is Retired Congressman Costello. Doubt he wants to run for anything, but he has the cash, name ID, and is young enough.


  39. - Tommydanger - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 2:33 pm:

    I worked for Paul Vallas when he ran against the hair. If he came back, I would support him again.
    Not a downstater, but a smart man and a good guy.


  40. - Wumpus - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 2:41 pm:

    Paul Vallas has no “commitment” to the state. I woul dlove to see him run. Thanks Burris and Rod.


  41. - Hey There - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 3:12 pm:

    Retired Congressman Costello would be an interesting downstater to run for Gov. However, I suspect he doesn’t want to delay his cashing-in as a lobbyist, etc.


  42. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 3:21 pm:

    To So. ILL: that suggestion, ironically makes me So ILL


  43. - jake - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 3:31 pm:

    to: Rahms Middle Finger
    –“Probably he (Frerichs) will run for treasurer but I would not be shocked to see him go for governor.”

    That’s silly. He’s only beginning to build a state-wide network.–

    Let’s think back to summer of 2003 A young state senator, just under 40, bright but unknown thinks he would like to run for U.S. Senator in 2004. The idea is obviously preposterous. The state party is lining up for Dan Hynes, a popular statewide office holder. The young state senator’s name is Barack Obama. An even younger local elected official in central Illinois, is one of the first to come forward to work for Obama in the primary. The younger man is Mike Frerichs. See a pattern?


  44. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 4:10 pm:

    –Dick Durbin, who has supported every liberal policy that has gotten Illinois into this mess, is a potential savior as governor? How’s that U.S. economy doing?–

    Another victim heard from.


  45. - Knome Sane - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 4:32 pm:

    =The younger man is Mike Frerichs. See a pattern?=

    Gaaack! That’s some heapin’, helpin, over-the-top hyperbole.


  46. - jake - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 5:38 pm:

    =Gaaack! That’s some heapin’, helpin, over-the-top hyperbole.=

    Check out Mike’s second quarter report about a week from now.


  47. - dr. reason a. goodwin - Tuesday, Jul 9, 13 @ 9:06 pm:

    Poshard has done some things lately that make me wonder if he’s not considering another run. Plus, there’s major bad blood between he and Quinn.


  48. - logic not emotion - Wednesday, Jul 10, 13 @ 3:56 am:

    Durbin is not well respected by many downstate. i’ve personally seen a number of people turn their backs to him as he spoke.


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